Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I had talked to Mahmoud a while ago:

The Russians are charging 110$ per thousand cubic and soon 154$ while the Iranians still demand 85$... So it is almost half the price offered by Russia. Big difference...

This is good news indeed. However, I would not celebrate as of now. Let's see what the real charge will be once gas begins to flow. I think Moscow is getting over two hundred dollars per a thousand cubic meters of gas, Iran's prices can't be too far behind.

[Armanen]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Doesn't the cost of oil and natural gas go up the further it must travel? If so then it makes sense why gas from Iran would be cheaper than from Russia.

[Federate]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Armenia should gradually start switching to other sources of energy such as nuclear energy and once we're set for it in the long run, switch to renewable energy. We need to make our country as less dependent on oil and gas as possible. These things are outdated stuff which are too expensive, unreliable and pollutant. We need to build Metsamor II (or whatever it's gonna be called) ASAP and possibly spring up another NPP around Syunik/Artsakh. And for the love of Armenia, try not to sell these new ones to the highest bidder.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Lawmaker Doubts U.S. Can Attack Iran

In the present conditions, the United States lacks both the military and financial means to attack Iran, deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma Valery Yazuev told journalists on Monday. Talk of a U.S. attack on Iran analogical to its invasion of Iraq is only being used to excite the public, he said. Yazuev suggested that the topic is being used as an attempt to provoke Iran into violent action against Israel, giving the U.S. grounds for retaliation against Iran. Yazuev compared the situation to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia. He added that Iran is very well armed and has armed forces larger than Russia’s at 1.2 million people, not counting the Islamic Guard. Yazuev recalled Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent statement that “If anyone dares to take even an insignificant offensive against the legal interests of Iran, its borders or its holy land, our forces will break his arm off before he has a chance to press the button.” Yazuev said that there has been repeated mention of a preventive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in U.S. and Israeli military circles. He also said that there is no basis for thinking that Iran is engaged in the development of nuclear arms.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13392/r_...ian_relations/

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iranian pilots show off dogfighting skills in war games

The Iranian Air Force started on Friday large scale combat drills in the northwest of the country with simulated dogfights, the IAF press service said in a statement. "Iranian fighters and bombers took off early on Friday from various airfields throughout the country and conducted a number of simulated dogfights. All the missions were well-organized and were performed successfully," the statement said. Friday's war games also included missions performed by domestic Saegheh fighters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and reconnaissance aircraft. The exercises are being held near Tabriz in Iran's East Azerbaijan Province to "demonstrate the might and combat readiness of Iran's Air Force." They involve the entire range of Iran's fighter fleet, including U.S.-made F-4, F-5, F-7 and F-14 fighters and domestic Saegheh fighters. Mid-air refueling is provided by Boeing 707 aerial tankers. The aircraft are flying simulated combat missions from air fields in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz and Hamadan. Iran has conducted several high-profile war games this year. The United States and Israel have consistently refused to rule out the possibility of military strikes against Iran over its refusal to halt its nuclear program.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20081017/117796983.html

And this from Debka:

Large-scale Iranian Air force exercise simulates attack on Israel

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the drill beginning Thursday, Oct. 16 in northern Iran, is Tehran’s rejoinder to Israel’s big aerial maneuver last June. Then, more than 100 Israeli fighter-bombers went through their paces over the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas, roughly the same distance from Israel as Iran. Tehran’s media claim the exercise will test its air force’s ability to fly to Israel and back without refueling. The exercise will also test the US-made FBX-T band anti-missile radar system delivered in September and installed at the IAF Nevatim air base in the Negev. The Iranians say they will be practicing their “state-of-the-art military equipment and flight tactics,” meaning an attempt to jam US and Israeli electronics and radar. According to Iranian media, the entire range of Iran's fighter fleet will take part, including US-made F-4, F-5, F-7 and F-14 fighters and domestic Saegheh fighters. Mid-air refueling will be provided by Boeing 707 aerial tankers. In mid-August, Iran's Air Force chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, maintained that its antiquated fighter jet fleet had been overhauled and upgraded to fly distances of 3,000 kilometers without refueling. That would be more than double the distance between Iran and Israel. That is why Tabriz, in Azerbaijan, at the northwestern corner of Iran, was picked as the starting point of the exercise. The official communiqué said the planes would be flying from air fields in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz and Hamadan and Dezful. Our military sources say that this means that the entire maneuver will take place over Iran and not venture out its air space. The planes will have to fly to Tabriz from bases in the south near the Pakistan border in order to replicate the more than 1,200 km distance between Iran and Israel. The Iranian Air force also aims at deploying more than 100 warplanes for the exercise, matching the number Israel used in its maneuver four months ago. Tehran has timed this large-scale drill for just three weeks before the US presidential election on Nov. 4, in response to speculation rife in the West that Israel may use the window between the US election and the swearing-in of the new president in January for an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. The Iranians aim to show they have a first and second strike capability - not just with ballistic missiles but also by aerial attack.

Source: http://www.debka.com/

[Lucin]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's interesting that Aram I is a very politically active religious leader, he travels everywhere, meets with world leaders, makes various comments in condemnation or support of different issues but I have not seen Catholics Garegin II of Edjmiadzin as active and influential on different levels.



President: Divine religions sympathetic to each other



President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday that all ethnics and religious minorities in Iran, including the Armenians, coexist peacefully.

In the Islamic Republic of Iran all religions as well as ethnic groups share the sorrow or joys of each other, he said adding that they adopted a unified stand during the eight years of sacred defense (Iraq-imposed war of 1980-1988) and now spare no efforts to ensure the country's progress, development and construction.
President Ahmadinejad made the remarks in a meeting with Bishop of Armenian Orthodox Church in Cilici Aram I Keshishian in Tehran on Tuesday.
All disputes and problems of humanity have roots are rooted in atheism, he said.
All prophets believed in one unique reality because they all had one message and all sought prosperity of humanity, he said.
All people around the globe are discontent with the current situation in the world and seek someone who will appear to rescue the world, he said.
Both Islam and Christianity believe that some day somebody will come to rescue the world which is regarded as the mystery and the view is common among followers of divine religions, he said.
It is among the duties of religious leaders to invite people to monotheism, he said.
"We should contribute to eradicate the root causes of wars, occupation, aggression, discrimination and poverty in the world," he said.
Referring to continued wars, conflicts and carnage round the world by bullying powers in the 20th century, he said "If the believers collaborate with each other they can prevent many catastrophe and play a very much constructive role to this end."
The Armenian Orthodox archbishop, for his part, expressed satisfaction with the peaceful co-existence of religious minorities in Iran and said the Armenian society has deep-rooted historical ties with Iranian nation and have lived in peace and friendship with each other for many years.
"We are among the real supporters of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he concluded.

Source:http://www1.irna.ir/en/news/view/lin...5548192311.htm

[Federate]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's interesting that Aram I is a very politically active religious leader, he travels everywhere, meets with world leaders, makes various comments in condemnation or support of different issues but I have not seen Catholics Garegin II of Edjmiadzin as active.

Aram I is badass.

I remember last summer in Lebanon, Aram I totally destroyed this famous Arab policitian (Amine Gemayel) who called Armenians "not true Christians nor Lebanese" after we voted against that politician's party (Phalange party) causing him to lose the district. He told him where was your family when Armenians settled in 1915?... ironically pointing out that the Gemayel family has its origins in Egypt and were not in Lebanon at that time. Also pointing out that Armenians have had a presence in what is known today as Lebanon since Tigran Mets times.

In less than 24 hours, Gemayel scheduled a meeting with Aram I where he publicly apologized for all his statements... basically kissed his ass

[Lucin]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Aram I is badass.

I remember last summer in Lebanon, Aram I totally destroyed this famous Arab policitian (Amine Gemayel) who called Armenians "not true Christians nor Lebanese" after we voted against that politician's party (Phalange party) causing him to lose the district. He told him where was your family when Armenians settled in 1915?... ironically pointing out that the Gemayel family has its origins in Egypt and were not in Lebanon at that time. Also pointing out that Armenians have had a presence in what is known today as Lebanon since Tigran Mets times.

In less than 24 hours, Gemayel scheduled a meeting with Aram I where he publicly apologized for all his statements... basically kissed his ass

Knowing the kind of personality he has, I can perfectly imagine the incident. He is a very intelligent and charismatic leader.

[Lucin]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I guess Obama just sounds to be a more sophisticated version of Bush when it comes to America's foreign policy...


Obama--fresh face for war on Iran
Sat, 08 Nov 2008 02:21:43 GMT


Barack Obama's top advisers are setting the stage for a military action against Iran over its nuclear program, new reports have revealed.

The emerging consensus on Iran in US foreign policy circles underscores the fact that the differences between Obama and John McCain were purely tactical, according to the World Socialist Website.

While millions of Americans voted for the Democratic candidate believing he would end the war in Iraq and address their pressing economic needs, powerful sections of the American elite swung behind him as a better vehicle to prosecute US economic and strategic interests in the Middle East and Central Asia-including the use of military force against Iran.

The report points to Obama's top Middle East adviser, Dennis Ross, as one of the key figures promoting a military action against Iran.

Ross is a key member of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank, which declared in a report in September that a nuclear weapons capable Iran was “strategically untenable” and detailed a robust approach, “incorporating new diplomatic, economic and military tools in an integrated fashion”.

The report said that the US needs to immediately boost its military presence in the Persian Gulf.

“This should commence the first day the new president enters office, especially as the Islamic Republic and its proxies might seek to test the new administration. It would involve pre-positioning US and allied forces, deploying additional aircraft carrier battle groups and minesweepers, [and] emplacing other war materiel in the region,” it stated

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...tionid=3510203

*****************

Obama, Emanuel and Israel
Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:17:59 GMT
By John V. Whitbeck

In the first major appointment of his administration, President-elect Barack Obama has named as his chief of staff Congressman Rahm Emanuel.

Emanuel is an Israeli citizen and Israeli army veteran whose father, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, was a member of Menachem Begin's Irgun forces during the Nakba and named his son after "a Lehi combatant who was killed" - i.e., a member of Yitzhak Shamir's terrorist Stern Gang, responsible for, in addition to other atrocities against Palestinians, the more famous bombing of the King David Hotel and assassination of the UN peace envoy Count Folke Bernadotte.

In rapid response to this news, the editorial in the next day's Arab News (Jeddah) was entitled "Don't pin much hope on Obama - Emanuel is his chief of staff and that sends a message". This editorial referred to the Irgun as a "terror organization" and concluded: "Far from challenging Israel, the new team may turn out to be as pro-Israel as the one it is replacing."

That was always likely. Obama repeatedly pledged unconditional allegiance to Israel during his campaign, most memorably in an address to the AIPAC national convention which Israeli peace activist Uri Avnery characterized as "a speech that broke all records for obsequiousness and fawning", and America's electing a black president has always been more easily imagined than any American president's declaring his country's independence from Israeli domination.

Still, one of the greatest advantages for the United States in electing Barack Hussein Obama was the prospect that the world's billion-plus Muslims, who now view the United States with almost universal loathing and hatred, would be dazzled by the new president's eloquence, life story, skin color and middle name, would think again with open minds and would give America a chance to redeem itself in their eyes and hearts - not incidentally, drastically shortening the long lines of aspiring jihadis eager to sacrifice their lives while striking a blow against the evil empire.

The profound loathing and hatred of the Muslim world toward the United States, which has always had its roots for America's unconditional support for the injustices inflicted and still being inflicted on the Palestinians, can fairly be considered the core of the primary foreign policy and "national security" problems confronting the United States in recent years. Why would Obama, a man of unquested brilliance, have chosen to send such a contemptuous message to the Muslim world with his first major appointment? Why would he wish to disabuse the Muslim world of its hopes (however modest) and slap it across the face at the ealiest opportunity?

A further contemptuous message is widely rumored to be forthcoming -- the naming as "Special Envoy for Middle East Peace" of Dennis Ross, the notorious Israel-Firster who, throughout the 12 years of the Bush the First and Clinton administrations, ensured that American policy toward the Palestinians did not deviate one millimeter from Israeli policy and that no progress toward peace could be made and who has since headed the AIPAC spin-off "think tank", the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Neverthess, since it is almost always constructive to seek a silver lining in the darkest clouds, a silver lining can be found and cited. For decades, the Palestinian leadership has been "waiting for Godot" - waiting for the US Government to finally do the right thing (if only in its own obvious self-interest) and to force Israel to comply with international law and UN Resolutions and permit them to have a decent mini-state on a tiny portion of the land that once was theirs.

This was never a realistic hope. It has not happened, and it will never happen. So it may well be salutary not to waste eight more days (let alone eight more years) playing along and playing the fool while more Palestinian lands are confiscated and more xxxish colonies and xxxs-only bypass roads are built on them, clinging to the delusion that the charming Mr. Obama, admirable though he may be in so many other respects, will eventually (if only in a second term, when he no longer has to worry about reelection) see the light and do the right thing. It is long overdue for the Palestinians themselves to seize the initiative, to reset the agenda and to declare a new "only game in town".

Furthermore, in February, Israel will elect a new Knesset. Bibi Netanyahu, who, most polls and coalition-building calculations suggest, is most likely to emerge as the next prime minister, has one (if only one) great virtue. He is absolutely honest in not professing any desire (however insincere) to see the creation of any Palestinian "state" (whether decent or less-than-a-Bantustan in nature) or to engage in any talks (even never-ending and fraudulent ones) ostensibly about that possibility. His return to power would definitively slam the door on the illusion of a "two-state solution" somewhere over an ever-receding horizon.

This would constitute a blessing and a liberation for Palestinian minds and Palestinian aspirations. Their leadership(s) could then return, after a long, costly and painful diversion, to fundamental principles, to pursuing the goal of a democratic, nonracist and nonsectarian state in all of Israel/Palestine with equal rights for all who live there.

This just goal could and should be pursued by strictly nonviolent means. If the goal is to convince a determined and powerful settler-colonial movement which wishes to seize your land, settle it and keep it (eventually cleansing it of you and your fellow natives) that it should cease, desist and leave, nonviolent forms of resistance are suicidal. If, however, the goal were to be to obtain the full rights of citizenship in a democratic, nonracist state (as was the case in the American civil rights movement and the South African anti-apartheid movement), then nonviolence would be the only viable approach. Violence would be totally inappropriate and counterproductive. The morally impeccable approach would also be the tactically effective approach. The high road would be the only road.

No American president - least of all Barack Obama - could easily support racism and apartheid and oppose democracy and equal rights, particularly if democracy and equal rights were being pursued by nonviolent means. No one anywhere could easily do so. The writing would be on the wall, and the clock would be running out on the tired game of using a perpetual "peace process" as an excuse to delay decisions (while building more "facts on the ground") forever.

Democracy and equal rights would not come quickly or easily. Forty years passed between when, on the night before his assassination, Dr. Martin Luther King cried out that he had been to the mountaintop and had seen the promised land and when Barack Obama was elected as president of the United States. (The Bible suggests a similar waiting period in the wilderness for Moses.) Forty-six years passed between the installation of a formal apartheid regime in South Africa and the election of Nelson Mandela as president of a fully democratic and nonracist "rainbow nation".

While it may be hoped that the transformation would be significantly quicker in Israel/Palestine, it is clear that many who already qualify as "senior citizens" will not live to see the promised land. However, if the promised land of a democratic state with equal rights for all is correctly and clearly perceived and persistently and peacefully pursued, there is ample reason for confidence that Israel/Palestine will one day experience the tearful exaltation of a "Mandela Moment" or an "Obama Moment", restoring hope in the moral potential both of a nation and of mankind, and that the xxxs, Muslims and Christians who live there will finally reach their promised land.

John V. Whitbeck, an international lawyer who has advised the Palestinian negotiating team in negotiations with Israel, is author of "The World According to Whitbeck".

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...tionid=3510304

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's interesting that Aram I is a very politically active religious leader, he travels everywhere, meets with world leaders, makes various comments in condemnation or support of different issues but I have not seen Catholics Garegin II of Edjmiadzin as active and influential on different levels.

Lucin jan, I don't understand your intention here. You must know that according to our church's administrative laws and regulations, Garegin II has no jurisdictional right to visit any territory under the auspices of Aram I, let alone take political/social/religious initiatives there... Similarly, I don't see Aram I visiting the Armenian community of Ukraine, or Belarus, or Belgium, or Russia, or Germany... What's more, Aram I is an ARF operative (and I am not saying this in a bad way). Thus, Aram I is asked/told to do certain things that the party needs said/done in their zones of influence. Furthermore, realizing the enormous task of rebuilding the Armenian Apostolic Church in Armenia, Garegin II does not even have the right, let alone the time, to step outside of the country. Having said that, Garegin II has been tireless in his efforts to revitalize the church in Armenia/Artsakh. He is a great administrator and an excellent organizer. And he does meet with world leaders on a regular basis, although primarily in the former Soviet states. And he does make comments in condemnation or support of various important issues, although with issues that have to do with former Soviet territory. You are not aware of Garegin's efforts because you live in a Clician jurisdiction. In short, the two Katolicoi have two different roles to play and they are both playing it very well. Incidentally, my family and Aram I's family were very close neighbors in Lebanon. My brothers were very close friends of his four (maybe five???) brothers.