Economics

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

The Saudis are proposing production cuts and Russia and Iran are saying fu. I think the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot by messing with the oil supply and prices. The financial squeeze is making it hard for the Saudis to wage their war on Yemen.

[Artashes]

Re: Economics

--- Armenia threw away much larger markets , technology & business practice of eu ...
IMO , that is a "bait & switch" act of the west at large.
Along with all the promised roses is higher inflation , absurd prices that don't reflect reality , and the ever constraint need to make more and more outrageous sums just to be at the poverty level.
European conduct is not what Hayastan should strive for. European market is a smoke screen for the manipulative money mongers.
Don't drink that cool aid. Understand it , but don't drink.
We need to search for reality. Keeping inflation low and having prices that reflect reality is better than the fraudulent and conniving promise of the "west's gold".
Once you get the west's cancer , the only way out is major surgery or your dead.
The eu is not looking to strengthen the less fortunate of this world , but to enslave them .
The colonialists haven't changed their entent , only the style has changed.
Eu + west have stolen more and are stealing more than Russia ever did.
Who got more crooks and shame business practices ? Russia ? Or London/wall street ?

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

"Armenia should leave the Russian camp politically, but Economically it really needs to break a lot of those chains"
These two things are not independent of one another. You cannot have your security being guaranteed by one power and flip them the finger and do business with its adversary instead of it. You seem to overlook some basic facts in your calculations which really bring about questions regarding either your ability to be analytical or your motives.

[Artashes]

Re: Economics

Post#61 by Mher
--- economics of Russian base in ---
As the USA military tries to consolidate bases throughout the country by shutting down some bases and consolidate into others, the cry from the communities that house these bases is 100% against base closer in "their" community.
5,000 troops in Gyumri base spend $10 each = $50,000 , a hundred $ spend = $500,000 , etc.
Military bases anywhere are a huge capital input for the communities they are located in.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Economics

Your statement on the IMF is interesting, mostly because the countries that have been indentured to the IMF are Latin American and African. The loans provided to these countries went to despots and corrupt institutions. On the opposite side of this story are countries like Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, the Baltic, and Ireland. Although not perfect, it's pretty much a failure of the administrations of a lot of countries on how they spent their IMF loans and to foolishly agree to use those loans to support the industries of former colonial powers (agriculture, mining, cheap labor).

Armenia's electrical networks could have had the same success story as the Armenian water supply systems. It went with Russia and they continued their crony business practices. This constant association of Armenia's economy with Russia's is shortsighted and really limits the country.

Armenia threw away its Association Agreement with the EU, a much larger market with better technology and business practices, for the EEU. Now, the second and third largest members of the EEU are trying to get out. I don't think Armenia should leave the Russian camp politically, but Economically it really needs to break a lot of those chains. Like you mentioned, its a small market, Russia trying to dominate it is nonsensical and it hinders Armenia completely. Having access to Iran, the EEU, the SCO, and EU is a smarter choice for Armenia. They should push for Free Trade with the Georgians and Iranians too.

[londontsi]

Re: Economics

And a bad credit from a Russian lending institute means what exactly?

Would you lend money to somebody who did not honour his previous loan with your adversary?

My opinion isn't an economical one, it's a political one.

Smart people when doing business do not look at politics.
They look if the spirit of "My word is my bond" motto exist ( ie. honesty)

If the spirit of this motto does not exist they will close the books and leave the meeting .... exception, if you can cheat them ....

.

[Mher]

Re: Economics

And a bad credit from a Russian lending institute means what exactly? My opinion isn't an economical one, it's a political one.

Armenia could have cheap/secure gas from Iran: Russia prevents this.

Armenia could rid itself of corruption like ENA: Russia prevents this.

If I was your financial adviser, I'd suggest you not borrow money from people who are interested in making you indentured.

$200mln "loan" for weapons?

I'm not trying to start a long discussion here, because this isn't the thread for it, but try to become a little more informed before making broad uniformed statements. I'm not a big supporter of Russia, just a realist, and a lot of what you just said is nonsense.

Armenia pays $189 for gas at the border, and the consumer pays about $391 at home/business. Here's the consumer prices paid across Europe.



Note the prices are in Euro, not Dollar. As you can see, even the lowest prices at 562 Euros, or about $600, is well above what Armenians pay. So stop this nonsense about cheap gas from Iran. Gas doesn't get any cheaper anywhere in the world than what we pay for from Russia. The Azeris sell it for much more than this to the Turks. I can't imagine there is much of a profit margin for Russia. Because a market of 3 million isn't worth the profit margin. Yes in fact Russia forced Armenia into preventing the export of Iranian gas through Armenia, but that's a different story than forcing Armenia to pay more for gas. Russia isn't stupid to try to make enemies for profit in a tiny relatively poor country.

the ENA was sold to Samvel Karapetyan, the Russian Armenian billionaire, about six weeks ago. Not that this was the benevolence of Russia. This was the work of the ElectricYerevan movement. But Russia wasn't forcing the Armenian government to stand idly by while this company was run into the ground, being administrated by local Armenians.

and borrowing from people who are determined to make you indentured? lol that's pretty much the entire point of the existence of the IMF. the Armenian government has had to borrow from multiple institutions to keep the country afloat during the regional economic crisis. Fortunately, the debt is still within a reasonable and manageable limit.

I'm not a fan of Russia, its short sighted policies, its malfunctioning government, and its economy that is a dying carcass. But Armenia's military budget is one eighth of Azerbaijans and we have the same army as them thanks to the Russian military assistance. Regardless of the foolish shortsighted decision of multiple the Armenian administrations of having sold major infrastructure assets to Russian state owed companies, Armenia would have been dependent on Russia for its survival while the Azeri oil is flowing.

But meanwhile, Armenia has gotten its fair share of benefits from the alliance with Russia.


Also a side note, that I think i should discuss. About two weeks ago I was in Gyumri and I asked a friend who lives there about their opinion on the military base and the shooting that occurred there last year. He said well, first of all I think we tend to understand to not judge an entire people based on the action of one insane person. That one eighteen year old kid shouldn't determine our feelings towards an entire people. But he said, regardless of how we feel, the entire economy of this city is based on that base. He said even though its only a few thousand soldiers, they get paid a respectable Russian income, and they spend their money here, and they account for a big percentage of the economic activity of this city. He was like half these stores would close the day that base closed, so even if we hated them we would tolerate them. Not for national security, but for our economic well being.

That was a very interesting point that I had never considered. The economic impact of that military base.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Economics

What a bizarre statement.

Nobody in his right mind would refuse to pay a debt if he can pay it back.
People who cannot pay will make any excuse not to pay which is a different thing.

If a debtor does not pay a bank, usually nothing happens to the bank but the debtor credit rating is zeroed.
Tell me who is going to lend that person again, would you?

In this world credit is the lifeblood of commerce and economy in general.
Without credit you are screwed.

I wouldn’t like you to be my financial advisor but then your handle should have been the warning.

Socialism and theft are different things.

.

And a bad credit from a Russian lending institute means what exactly? My opinion isn't an economical one, it's a political one.

Armenia could have cheap/secure gas from Iran: Russia prevents this.

Armenia could rid itself of corruption like ENA: Russia prevents this.

If I was your financial adviser, I'd suggest you not borrow money from people who are interested in making you indentured.

$200mln "loan" for weapons?

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

Ukraine should not pay the debt. All countries that owe Russia cash should not pay. It will help speed up the decay of their Empire.

Ukraine is done regardless. If it pays Russia or not will have little effect on Russia but Ukraine has given up everything it ever owned as the IMF and other western institutions will strip her of everything she has.

[londontsi]

Re: Economics

Ukraine should not pay the debt. All countries that owe Russia cash should not pay. It will help speed up the decay of their Empire.

What a bizarre statement.

Nobody in his right mind would refuse to pay a debt if he can pay it back.
People who cannot pay will make any excuse not to pay which is a different thing.

If a debtor does not pay a bank, usually nothing happens to the bank but the debtor credit rating is zeroed.
Tell me who is going to lend that person again, would you?

In this world credit is the lifeblood of commerce and economy in general.
Without credit you are screwed.

I wouldn’t like you to be my financial advisor but then your handle should have been the warning.

Socialism and theft are different things.

.