Economics

[UrMistake]

Re: Economics

Armenia should find new sources of energy .
Be more independent , chemistry is the new thing of the century maybe of all the time !

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

Oil below $100 ahead of U.S. employment report release
The price of oil extended losses below $100 a barrel Tuesday, Oct 22, ahead of the U.S. employment report for September, the Associated Press reports.

Benchmark U.S. crude for November delivery was down 33 cents at $98.89 a barrel at midafternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract, which expires Tuesday, dropped $1.56 to $99.22 the day before. The December contract was down 34 cents at $99.34 a barrel.

A jump in U.S. crude supplies weighed on the oil price. The government said Monday, in a report delayed five days due to the government shutdown, that U.S. crude supplies rose by 4 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 11.

The Schork Report estimated that U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are at the third highest level for October since 1930 and 13 percent above the normal range over the previous decade.

The September employment report, also delayed because of the shutdown, is due for release later Tuesday and will provide a new cue for energy trading.

U.S. employers are forecast to have added 180,000 jobs, up from 169,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7.3 percent, which will support arguments in favor of the Federal Reserve continuing its super easy monetary policy.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 22 cents to $109.86 on the ICE futures exchange in London.

Vanessa Tan, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, said the seasonal maintenance of refineries coupled with the movement of pipeline flows around the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for WTI futures helped drive the stockpiles increase.

"This surplus of oil supplies in the near term helped to weigh on prices but some support came from expectations that the U.S. Fed would not reduce asset purchases as its quantitative easing program would support the demand of oil," she said in a note, according to AFP.

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

'KARDASHIAN BONDS' ARE NOW A THING

Business Insider Australia
Sept 19 2013

by Sam Ro 18 September 2013 12:00 AM

Globalization has come with an increasingly interconnected system of
capital markets.

This has made way for government bonds denominated in foreign
currencies.

And those bonds have come with memorable nicknames.

Korea offers "kimchi" bonds. Turkey offers "baklava" bonds. Japan
offers "samurai" bonds. And Australia offers "kangaroo" bonds.

One new foreign bond offering is attracting tons of attention for
its bonds' nickname.

Armenia.

Why?

Because, people are calling Armenia's new dollar-denominated bonds
"Kardashian" bonds.

And bond investors can thank Standard Bank's Tim Ash who coined it
in a note to clients earlier this month.

"Jim O'Neill gave the world BRICS, I can retire now having given the
world the Kardashian "bottom" bond," said Ash according to the Wall
Street Journal's Katie Martin. Martin has a post about it on WSJ.com.

"Public finances are a lot stronger in Armenia than Serbia, but par
with Georgia," Ash said today. "Political stability - stronger in
Armenia these days than either Georgia or Serbia. Net-net, Armenia
probably should price wide to Georgia (new issue premium/ lack of
market support/knowledge) but inside Serbia."

But what might've began as a joke nickname may actually have some
significant parallels

"[A]t present I would price these guys to yield around the 6.5-6.6%
level for a 10Y," added Ash. "Interestingly, much might be made of the
"Kardashian" angle, i.e. a strong Western diaspora in the US/France
which might support such a new issue."

The emerging markets have spent much of the year in turmoil. But
surprisingly, frontier markets like Armenia have been remarkably
resilient.

"Frontier Market funds ($1.5bn inflows YTD) have decoupled from
Emerging Markets ($2.1bn outflows YTD)," noted Bank of America Merrill
Lynch's Michael Hartnett in a note to clients last month.

"These so-called "emerging markets of the future" have enjoyed strong
growth from low base effects, abundant natural and human resources,
the availability of easy gains from market reforms and injections
of technology into relatively low-wage economies," said Franklin
Templeton's Mark Mobius in June. "Compared with more mature emerging
markets, frontier markets are relatively under-researched, and we
believe that this lack of familiarity could lead to undervaluation and
pricing anomalies that we could seek to exploit through our extensive
research resources."

With interest rates low and money flowing into the frontier markets,
these new "Kardashian" bonds might be the sexiest new bonds in
the market.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/armenia-offering-kardashian-bonds-2013-9

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

I was watching the news today and they reported that Larry Summers is inline to be the next head of the Fed. Yes this is the same Larry Summers who was one of the architects of banking deregulation and the guy who ridiculed all the sane economists when they warned of the ensuing housing debacle. Yes this is one of the architects of this disaster we are living through yet unlike most other people who screw up badly and get fired-this a-hole gets promoted. I hope you enjoy whats left of your cruise on the SS Sinking Ship.

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

Trade unions have a bad rap in USA and some of them deserve it for they were unfair or overly aggressive or corrupt.. but we should not forget what life was like without them. Here is an example from todays news. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93N06P20130424
The control of the USA government by coorporate special interest groups has lead to the decline of unions in this country and the result is a shift backwards regarding issues like pay, worker safety, job security.. This news story is a great example of what outsourcing and shipping jobs overseas leads to. I am sure the women in this factory and the hundreds that died in others would rather be alive then dead employees.

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

You also make a great point. A corrupt government is not good at managing anything. Just like the free market - democracy also is not a magic wand. A corrupt democracy is very destructive in every way and democracies have always been more corrupt then most other forms of government. The free market is great for managing most types of products and this fact makes it more valuable then democracy in my opinion. I do not want to give the impression that good government is impossible because it is possible to have good government and the difference between good and bad government depends on the motivations of those doing the governing.

These are very good points Haykakan makes .
--- free market not a magic pill --- first off , the " market " is manipulated . The market forces have nothing to do with sensible development , or conduct .
Unfortunately , the govt is also being manipulated and therefore not an honest watchdog .
The market and democracy are both easily manipulated .
As you cannot trust the market to to do the morally right thing so goes democracy .
A morally bankrupt population can exercise its democratic right and still come up with a morally bankrupt choice .
Freedom to be a self centered greed ridden as$hole is not defensible , no matter who or how many run their mouths .
Free markets and democracy are great tools for the multi national corporations to further their agenda .
Our planet has been and is grossly mismanaged .
We are worthless stewards .
Artashes

[Artashes]

Re: Economics

The free market is not a magic pill. Free markets work well for many things but they cannot be trusted with depletable resources like fish. If you are a fisherman the more fish you catch the more money you make. This motivates the fisherman to catch as many fish as possible thus with many fisherman doing this it leads to the collapse of the fishery. The thing is that the less fish there are -the more they are worth thus the lower the fish population - the higher the motivation to catch them in the free market. Many examples of depleted resources fall into this catagory a good example is the depleted cod fishery in the USA waters which never recovered from overfishing. The free market cannot be trusted to regulate these kinds of resources and this is where the role of government becomes important.

These are very good points Haykakan makes .
--- free market not a magic pill --- first off , the " market " is manipulated . The market forces have nothing to do with sensible development , or conduct .
Unfortunately , the govt is also being manipulated and therefore not an honest watchdog .
The market and democracy are both easily manipulated .
As you cannot trust the market to to do the morally right thing so goes democracy .
A morally bankrupt population can exercise its democratic right and still come up with a morally bankrupt choice .
Freedom to be a self centered greed ridden as$hole is not defensible , no matter who or how many run their mouths .
Free markets and democracy are great tools for the multi national corporations to further their agenda .
Our planet has been and is grossly mismanaged .
We are worthless stewards .
Artashes

[jgk3]

Re: Economics

Wow, I've loved every video I've watched so far in that series Haykakan.

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

Economics is a dynamic subject involving many other disciplines. Here we see how psychology behind our motivations works or does not work. The human mind is interesting - hope you enjoy this vid andgain a deeper understanding about what motivates us.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc

[Haykakan]

Re: Economics

Reuters) - Signs the euro zone's economic downturn is deepening and worries over a possible financial meltdown in Cyprus sent world shares, oil and the single currency lower on Thursday.

The falls could have been greater but for earlier data showing a pick-up in Chinese factory activity and the commitment by U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday to stick with its ultra-loose monetary policy stance.









Wall Street shares reflected the precarious balance of risks indicating a flat performance when trading starts. .N

But the euro and European shares moved decisively lower, with the single currency briefly dipping below $1.29 to the dollar, following weak readings of the March Purchasing Manager's Indexes (PMIs), which showed activity across the 17-nation currency bloc slowing from already weak levels.

The data revealed that German growth was starting to suffer from the euro zone's renewed problems and again highlighted a widening chasm with France, the region's second largest economy.

"It (PMI data) does not look good," Antonio Garcia Pascual, chief southern European economist at Barclays. "Maybe we were expecting it in France but the weakness in Germany was a surprise.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 of top European shares extended its falls after the data to be down 0.5 percent to 1,192.21 points. The main market indexes in London .FTSE, Paris .FCHI and Frankfurt .GDAXI were all around 1.0 percent lower. .EU .L

Yields on German 10-year government bonds, used as a safe-haven in times of market stress, stayed close to their 2013 lows at 1.38 percent, barely changed on the day.

MSCI's world equity index .MIWD00000PUS dipped only about 0.1 percent, but remains on course for its worst week since November last year when worries about the U.S. fiscal cliff were driving markets lower.

CYPRUS DEADLINE

Apart from the bleak economic numbers, market attention was firmly on Cyprus, where crisis talks among political leaders resumed to seek a new bailout plan which could involve Russia.

The European Central Bank has set a Monday deadline for Cyprus to agree a new plan, threatening to cut off funding to the island's cash-strapped banks if a program is not agreed by then with the European Union and the IMF.

Cyprus has faced the prospect of bankruptcy since Tuesday when its tiny parliament voted unanimously against a levy on bank deposits to raise 5.8 billion euros ($7.5 billion) demanded by the EU under a 10 billion euro rescue deal.

The worries about Cyprus look to be contained for the moment with Spain able to sell 4.5 billion euros of new bonds on |Thursday in an auction that saw strong demand and resulted in lower yields than at recent debt sales. <ID:L6N0CD5N8>

"All in all, no signs of Cyprus contagion in this sale," said Marc Ostwald, a strategist at London-based Monument Securities.

Spain's 10-year bond yield in the secondary market fell 10 basis points on the day to 4.9 percent.

FED HELP

Most markets had begun the day firmly underpinned by the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement at which the current aggressive policy stimulus program was left unchanged despite recent improvements in the U.S. economy.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank might slow the pace of its bond buying but only after the labor market showed sustained improvement over a number of months.

Asian shares gained a further lift when the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for China showed a rise to 51.7 in March from 50.4 in February, pointing towards solid but not spectacular first-quarter growth in the world's second-largest economy.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.1 percent after that data.

Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 climbed 1.3 percent, hitting a 4-1/2-year high as exporters gained on the Fed's commitment but also expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. .T

The BoJ's new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, in his first news conference, reaffirmed the commitment to expand Japan monetary stimulus to beat deflation, sending 10-year government bond yields to a near-decade low on Thursday.

Oil markets drew support from the Chinese data to hold on to much of their previous day's gains but have eased slightly due the concerns about Cyprus and the wider euro zone.

U.S. crude futures fell 42 cents to $93.08 a barrel while Brent eased 44 cents to $108.28. <O/R>

The pledge by the Fed a pledge to keep spending $85 billion a month buying bonds lent support to gold. Spot gold firmed 0.2 percent to $1,608.56 an ounce, though off a three-week high of $1,615.16 hit earlier this week.