Olduvai Theory

[Anonymouse]

Has anyone else ever heard of this? I just uncovered this accidentally, but found out to be quite an interesting theory. There are some points of contention, but what is presented, at least to me, doesn't seem to be something easily brushed off, such as the non-renewable resources being depleted. From the article:

The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population.

It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an "epidemic" of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide.

Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A. Tainter, 1988

http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_r_olduvai_theory.htm

Comments/criticisms welcomed.

[sleuth]

Has anyone else ever heard of this? I just uncovered this accidentally, but found out to be quite an interesting theory. There are some points of contention, but what is presented, at least to me, doesn't seem to be something easily brushed off, such as the non-renewable resources being depleted. From the article:

The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population.

It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an "epidemic" of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide.

Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A. Tainter, 1988

http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_r_olduvai_theory.htm

Comments/criticisms welcomed.

ANON..today when u sent a link i started to dig hehehehe and i found something :P . by the year 2100 (for optimists) all the oil will be gone, for all practical purposes. And most of it will have been laid down on roads or burnt by vehicles using those roads.(lol i don't really mind to be back in stone age hehehehe)
but there is an alternative ....water--hydrogen fuel (i dream about free petrol lol)..hydrogen is considered a realistic alternative to fossil fuel and is competitive in price.
can u imagine it burns hotter than petrol..and this is not off-the-planet weird science, it is sound mechanical engineering, and it will work.(i hope so)
my new MOTTO...hydrogen revalution perpetua evolution

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/14/1081838784511.html

[dusken]

Mr. Anonymouse:
I did not read the article you posted because I am at work and it is long, probably boring, and I am illiterate anyway. Going off what you said, is there any consideration for technological advancements pertaining to efficiency of energy production and usage? superconductivity being an example. I would expect it to be very difficult to accurately incorporate technological growth in a projection of any nature.

[anileve]

I would expect it to be very difficult to accurately incorporate technological growth in a projection of any nature.

Perfect statement!

[anileve]

Some countries have become almost totally dependent on income from oil. What happens to economies and social structures which have been built largely or almost entirely on the base of a nonrenewable resource--oil? This is the situation of the Persian Gulf countries of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman. Iran and Venezuela, with modest agricultural bases, are not quite so dependent on oil, although both countries get most of their foreign exchange from the sale of oil. Elsewhere, both Libya and Brunei are almost totally oil-dependent.

Contrary to the common idea that increased prosperity results in a reduction in birth rate and population growth, Abernethy (1993), with several examples, makes the point that economic development may spur population growth. With better expectations for the future, more children can be afforded, and improved medical care means a better survival rate. Abernethy's view is fully validated by what has happened in the newly oil-rich nations. With the social programs supported by oil income, and the Muslim tradition of large families, the growth rate of all the Gulf nations (which are all Muslim) and Libya, also Muslim, has been well above the average for the world which is about 1.6%. For example, the annual growth rate and doubling time' of the population in Saudi Arabia and in Libya is 4.1% (doubling in 17 years), Kuwait 6.0% (doubling in 11.6 years), Qatar 6.5% (doubling time 10.7 years), and United Arab Emirates 7.3% (doubling time 9.6 years). As a result of these high growth rates, about half the population of the Arab world is now under the age of 15, portending a continued and perhaps even an increase in the population growth rate over the next two decades (Fernea, 1998). Also, this new generation is the first to live predominantly in cities. This has been made possible by oil wealth which allowed people to move beyond primarily agrarian and nomadic economies. (This is similar to what happened earlier in the United States when the need for farm labor was greatly reduced by oil-powered machinery, and people moved to the cities to engage in manufacturing and other enterprises.)

The above is crap! Growth rate doesn't indicate squat! If the economy of the country is in the dumps any sort of an improvement will appear as a large leap. I feel as if all these theories are highly over dramatized, people somehow cannot accept that naturally there will be fluctuations, nothing is stable or permanent. Not even a catastrophe.

[Anonymouse]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/