Has anyone else ever heard of this? I just uncovered this accidentally, but found out to be quite an interesting theory. There are some points of contention, but what is presented, at least to me, doesn't seem to be something easily brushed off, such as the non-renewable resources being depleted. From the article:
The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population.
It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an "epidemic" of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide.
Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A. Tainter, 1988
Comments/criticisms welcomed.
The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population.
It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an "epidemic" of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide.
Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A. Tainter, 1988
Comments/criticisms welcomed.
Comment