Announcement

Collapse

Forum Rules (Everyone Must Read!!!)

1] What you CAN NOT post.

You agree, through your use of this service, that you will not use this forum to post any material which is:
- abusive
- vulgar
- hateful
- harassing
- personal attacks
- obscene

You also may not:
- post images that are too large (max is 500*500px)
- post any copyrighted material unless the copyright is owned by you or cited properly.
- post in UPPER CASE, which is considered yelling
- post messages which insult the Armenians, Armenian culture, traditions, etc
- post racist or other intentionally insensitive material that insults or attacks another culture (including Turks)

The Ankap thread is excluded from the strict rules because that place is more relaxed and you can vent and engage in light insults and humor. Notice it's not a blank ticket, but just a place to vent. If you go into the Ankap thread, you enter at your own risk of being clowned on.
What you PROBABLY SHOULD NOT post...
Do not post information that you will regret putting out in public. This site comes up on Google, is cached, and all of that, so be aware of that as you post. Do not ask the staff to go through and delete things that you regret making available on the web for all to see because we will not do it. Think before you post!


2] Use descriptive subject lines & research your post. This means use the SEARCH.

This reduces the chances of double-posting and it also makes it easier for people to see what they do/don't want to read. Using the search function will identify existing threads on the topic so we do not have multiple threads on the same topic.

3] Keep the focus.

Each forum has a focus on a certain topic. Questions outside the scope of a certain forum will either be moved to the appropriate forum, closed, or simply be deleted. Please post your topic in the most appropriate forum. Users that keep doing this will be warned, then banned.

4] Behave as you would in a public location.

This forum is no different than a public place. Behave yourself and act like a decent human being (i.e. be respectful). If you're unable to do so, you're not welcome here and will be made to leave.

5] Respect the authority of moderators/admins.

Public discussions of moderator/admin actions are not allowed on the forum. It is also prohibited to protest moderator actions in titles, avatars, and signatures. If you don't like something that a moderator did, PM or email the moderator and try your best to resolve the problem or difference in private.

6] Promotion of sites or products is not permitted.

Advertisements are not allowed in this venue. No blatant advertising or solicitations of or for business is prohibited.
This includes, but not limited to, personal resumes and links to products or
services with which the poster is affiliated, whether or not a fee is charged
for the product or service. Spamming, in which a user posts the same message repeatedly, is also prohibited.

7] We retain the right to remove any posts and/or Members for any reason, without prior notice.


- PLEASE READ -

Members are welcome to read posts and though we encourage your active participation in the forum, it is not required. If you do participate by posting, however, we expect that on the whole you contribute something to the forum. This means that the bulk of your posts should not be in "fun" threads (e.g. Ankap, Keep & Kill, This or That, etc.). Further, while occasionally it is appropriate to simply voice your agreement or approval, not all of your posts should be of this variety: "LOL Member213!" "I agree."
If it is evident that a member is simply posting for the sake of posting, they will be removed.


8] These Rules & Guidelines may be amended at any time. (last update September 17, 2009)

If you believe an individual is repeatedly breaking the rules, please report to admin/moderator.
See more
See less

Olduvai Theory

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 1
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous template Next
  • #1

    Olduvai Theory

    Has anyone else ever heard of this? I just uncovered this accidentally, but found out to be quite an interesting theory. There are some points of contention, but what is presented, at least to me, doesn't seem to be something easily brushed off, such as the non-renewable resources being depleted. From the article:

    The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population.

    It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an "epidemic" of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide.

    Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A. Tainter, 1988

    Olduvai Theory
    http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_r_olduvai_theory.htm


    Comments/criticisms welcomed.
    Achkerov kute.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Originally posted by Anonymouse
    Has anyone else ever heard of this? I just uncovered this accidentally, but found out to be quite an interesting theory. There are some points of contention, but what is presented, at least to me, doesn't seem to be something easily brushed off, such as the non-renewable resources being depleted. From the article:

    The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population.

    It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an "epidemic" of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide.

    Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. — Joseph A. Tainter, 1988

    Olduvai Theory
    http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_r_olduvai_theory.htm


    Comments/criticisms welcomed.

    ANON..today when u sent a link i started to dig hehehehe and i found something :P . by the year 2100 (for optimists) all the oil will be gone, for all practical purposes. And most of it will have been laid down on roads or burnt by vehicles using those roads.(lol i don't really mind to be back in stone age hehehehe)
    but there is an alternative ....water--hydrogen fuel (i dream about free petrol lol)..hydrogen is considered a realistic alternative to fossil fuel and is competitive in price.
    can u imagine it burns hotter than petrol..and this is not off-the-planet weird science, it is sound mechanical engineering, and it will work.(i hope so)
    my new MOTTO...hydrogen revalution perpetua evolution

    The hydrogen revolution
    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/14/1081838784511.html
    I'm a monstrous mass of vile, foul & corrupted matter.

    Comment

    • #3
      Mr. Anonymouse:
      I did not read the article you posted because I am at work and it is long, probably boring, and I am illiterate anyway. Going off what you said, is there any consideration for technological advancements pertaining to efficiency of energy production and usage? superconductivity being an example. I would expect it to be very difficult to accurately incorporate technological growth in a projection of any nature.

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by dusken
        I would expect it to be very difficult to accurately incorporate technological growth in a projection of any nature.
        Perfect statement!

        Comment

        • #5
          Some countries have become almost totally dependent on income from oil. What happens to economies and social structures which have been built largely or almost entirely on the base of a nonrenewable resource--oil? This is the situation of the Persian Gulf countries of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman. Iran and Venezuela, with modest agricultural bases, are not quite so dependent on oil, although both countries get most of their foreign exchange from the sale of oil. Elsewhere, both Libya and Brunei are almost totally oil-dependent.

          Contrary to the common idea that increased prosperity results in a reduction in birth rate and population growth, Abernethy (1993), with several examples, makes the point that economic development may spur population growth. With better expectations for the future, more children can be afforded, and improved medical care means a better survival rate. Abernethy's view is fully validated by what has happened in the newly oil-rich nations. With the social programs supported by oil income, and the Muslim tradition of large families, the growth rate of all the Gulf nations (which are all Muslim) and Libya, also Muslim, has been well above the average for the world which is about 1.6%. For example, the annual growth rate and doubling time' of the population in Saudi Arabia and in Libya is 4.1% (doubling in 17 years), Kuwait 6.0% (doubling in 11.6 years), Qatar 6.5% (doubling time 10.7 years), and United Arab Emirates 7.3% (doubling time 9.6 years). As a result of these high growth rates, about half the population of the Arab world is now under the age of 15, portending a continued and perhaps even an increase in the population growth rate over the next two decades (Fernea, 1998). Also, this new generation is the first to live predominantly in cities. This has been made possible by oil wealth which allowed people to move beyond primarily agrarian and nomadic economies. (This is similar to what happened earlier in the United States when the need for farm labor was greatly reduced by oil-powered machinery, and people moved to the cities to engage in manufacturing and other enterprises.)
          The above is crap! Growth rate doesn't indicate squat! If the economy of the country is in the dumps any sort of an improvement will appear as a large leap. I feel as if all these theories are highly over dramatized, people somehow cannot accept that naturally there will be fluctuations, nothing is stable or permanent. Not even a catastrophe.

          Comment

          • #6
            http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
            Achkerov kute.

            Comment

            Previous template Next
            Working...
            X