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The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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  • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Originally posted by Armenian
    In short, Russia's defeat of Georgia changed the whole geopolitical character of the region and beyond, and has also resulted in elevating Armenia's political status in the Caucasus. Armenia today is in a very unique position.

    Until recently, Turkey received its energy supplies from Azerbaijan via crucial western funded pipelines in Georgia. These pipelines are now out of service as a result of the recent war in Georgia and their future, as well as the future of Georgia, seem uncertain because Moscow would like to monopolize the distribution of Central Asian energy assets as well as finally drive out western interests from the region. As a result of the short but intense war against Tbilisi, Moscow now fully controls the political and economic climate in the Caucasus.

    Moscow has in effect severed Turkey's easy access to Central Asian energy, and has also negatively effected Ankara's trade with Russia. It's important to note here that Russia and Turkey have a very lucrative multi-billion dollar annual trade. Naturally, Ankara desperately needs reliable access to oil and gas as well as its lucrative trade with Russia. So, as a result of the recent war in Georgia and the very tense situation in the Black Sea, Turkey is being forced to look toward Russia for survival. And Ankara is seeking an alternative land route to Russia and eastward.

    Since Iran is a major regional player and a serious competitor to Turkey, Ankara will not put itself in a position where it has to depend on Tehran. This leaves Armenia as the only nation in the region that holds the eastern gates. Since Ankara cannot threaten Armenia militarily due to the Russian presence in the country, Ankara is in essence forced to approach Yerevan with a peace proposal.

    Signs that Moscow is fully behind (or actively supporting) the warming of relations between Yerevan and Ankara are quite clear. It seems as if Moscow is attempting to drive a wedge between the West and Turkey and one of the tools they seem to be using is Armenia, the other being oil/gas/trade. Remember that Serj Sargsyan reached his hand out to Ankara right after his meetings with Medvedev and during a public speech while in Moscow last month. Moreover, Turkey proposed the Caucasus union/pact in the immediate aftermath of the war in Georgia, a war during which Ankara indirectly supported Russia's actions. Moreover, Washington, Turkish nationalists and Azeris are signaling their strong displeasure about Ankara's proposal. Moreover, Moscow has been clearly signaling that it is in favor of the proposal and is now in fact all for the opening of the Armenian-Turkey border - this after years of remaining silent about it. Due to the war in Georgia and due to the high tensions in the Black Sea region, they have found that Armenia would be a good/logical alternative route for this trade. Eventually they will attempt to drag Azerbaijan into this as well. Nonetheless, they are currently trying to prepare the playing field in Armenia. I have covered this topic in the following posts:









    http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=2433
    Good analysis. One thing that need to be emphasized repeatedly is that Russia also has say over Central Asia {as you mentioned above}. They will decide the route of oil and gas coming from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Russia wants to not only control the flow of resources but also render BTC and the contemplated Nabucco route useless. Consumers for Russian and Caspian oil and gas will have to rely on Russia. If the EU/US grumbles, China will then become their foremost customer. Russia is in the drivers seat.

    The only caveat for Armenia is that if the Azeris cave in to Russian demands, which they very well may and sooner than we think, and re-route their oil and gas through Russia entirely, Armenia may lose some strategic value to Russia {this could be bad for Artsakh in the long run} though at the same time, Armenia is already important to Russia in that it offers the Russia a base against Turkey and Iran.

    I also believe that if it were ever worked {not that it will} that Armenia was a transit route for resources in the future, say as a replacement to Georgia via BTC or another contemplated route, this would sour Armenian-Russian relations. Russia wants total control and I don't see how they can be denied. They would see that as a betrayal.

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    • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

      Thanks for the sound analysis Armenian.


      RSNATIONI also believe that if it were ever worked {not that it will} that Armenia was a transit route for resources in the future, say as a replacement to Georgia via BTC or another contemplated route, this would sour Armenian-Russian relations. Russia wants total control and I don't see how they can be denied. They would see that as a betrayal.
      Well, that bothers me as well.

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      • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

        I feel like the tables are slowly turning. Kocharian and Serzh must be devotees of the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu. Even through war, a blockade and lack of resources, they have cooly made some great strategic decisions. Armenia has been able to remain a valuable and solid ally to Russia/CSTO while having cordial ties to the west. They have not made the mistake of aligning solely to the US/NATO as have Georgia and Azerbaijan {and which are currently paying for dearly}. Russia and Iran will forever be in the neighborhood while the US will only have fleeting interest.

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        • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

          Originally posted by RSNATION View Post
          I feel like the tables are slowly turning. Kocharian and Serzh must be devotees of the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu. Even through war, a blockade and lack of resources, they have cooly made some great strategic decisions. Armenia has been able to remain a valuable and solid ally to Russia/CSTO while having cordial ties to the west. They have not made the mistake of aligning solely to the US/NATO as have Georgia and Azerbaijan {and which are currently paying for dearly}. Russia and Iran will forever be in the neighborhood while the US will only have fleeting interest.
          Please allow me to add something. The interest of the US is not only fleeting. It's destructive. Their very policy demonstrates it. Openly supporting Azerbaijan and criticising Armenia for lack of democracy???!!! Come on, are back to the witchhunt age?

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          • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

            Originally posted by meline View Post
            Thanks for the sound analysis Armenian.




            Well, that bothers me as well.
            Yeah, look at it this way too; Georgia is paid transit fees for being part of BTC and if I can recall, they are not very much but for a country like Georgia or Armenia, it is a decent sum. But if you do a cost benefit analysis, what they have earned from transit and strategic position/prestige from the west and compare it to the costs they have incurred through their participation, it has not detrimental. Sure, Saakashvili took thing way over the edge, but all he did was hasten Russia's eventual reaction and far from recovering or getting better, Russia is not finished with Georgia. Despite the best efforts of the EU, NATO, etc., Russia is full dialed in and has already contemplated every possible Georgian move and have prepared a subsequent reaction. It should be also noted that the Russians probably eyes and ears very close to Saakashvili and know his every thought. He is done. He may last a little longer but there is only so much the EU, NATO, US, Soros can do.
            Last edited by RSNATION; 09-06-2008, 04:54 PM.

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            • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

              Originally posted by meline View Post
              Please allow me to add something. The interest of the US is not only fleeting. It's destructive. Their very policy demonstrates it. Openly supporting Azerbaijan and criticising Armenia for lack of democracy???!!! Come on, are back to the witchhunt age?
              Destructive, hypocritical, aggressive, etc but still fleeting. After this latest reverse and the wars that have bogged them down, the US may have to eventually relinquish most of their "interests" in the Caspian region. At the same time, the US is not going to relinquish their interests in Middle East oil. I also expect that regardless of who wins the next election, alternative energy will finally be given a fair shot in earnest as well as additional drilling in the US. They whole building "democracy" is such a sham as we all know. While democracy is a positive, the US has used it only a tool for control. How else can anyone justify the US hypocritical reactions over the Hezzbollah winning elections in the West Bank and Gaza. Democracy only when it suits the US.

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              • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                Originally posted by RSNATION View Post
                He is done. He may last a little longer but there is only so much the EU, NATO, US, Soros can do.
                Indeed. That's all his buddies can do for him.

                Georgia is paid transit fees for being part of BTC and if I can recall, they are not very much but for a country like Georgia or Armenia, it is a decent sum. But if you do a cost benefit analysis, what they have earned from transit and strategic position/prestige from the west and compare it to the costs they have incurred through their participation, it has not been detrimental. Sure, Saakashvili took thing way over the edge, but all he did was hasten Russia's eventual reaction and far from recovering or getting better, Russia is not finished with Georgia.
                You are right. It was all a doomed move and the worse is yet to come for them. And they have asked for it during the last 15 years

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                • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                  Originally posted by meline View Post
                  Indeed. That's all his buddies can do for him.



                  You are right. It was all a doomed move and the worse is yet to come for them. And they have asked for it during the last 15 years
                  I agree with you. At least Sheverdnadze was subtle.

                  Comment


                  • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                    Originally posted by RSNATION View Post
                    Destructive, hypocritical, aggressive, etc but still fleeting. After this latest reverse and the wars that have bogged them down, the US may have to eventually relinquish most of their "interests" in the Caspian region. At the same time, the US is not going to relinquish their interests in Middle East oil. I also expect that regardless of who wins the next election, alternative energy will finally be given a fair shot in earnest as well as additional drilling in the US. They whole building "democracy" is such a sham as we all know. While democracy is a positive, the US has used it only a tool for control. How else can anyone justify the US hypocritical reactions over the Hezzbollah winning elections in the West Bank and Gaza. Democracy only when it suits the US.
                    Well, I guess that it's also an attempt at countering Russia's intrests in the Caucussus. Once their battlefield was Europe. Now its oil routes.

                    Comment


                    • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                      Originally posted by meline View Post
                      Well, I guess that it's also an attempt at countering Russia's intrests in the Caucussus. Once their battlefield was Europe. Now its oil routes.
                      Agree. It is resources that matter. Russia is decisive and brutal and as I alluded to before, they are locked into every country in their "near abroad". They are in it to win it. They are not looking for a fight with the US but they will not back down from protecting their interests and their borders.

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