Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

access not excess

excess means more than necessary
access means means of approach

Let's try again

Not really. Azeris still have access to the Caspian sea(lake).

Haykakan, Levon is like a small child who is only cool behind his computer because he has no life and feels joy correcting people on a forum (where most of the people write quick because it's about the message as this is not an English exam we constantly take). He does this because he feels threatened and knows his credibility has just shrunk to zero.

Admin I ask you to delete his message as it was not on-topic.

Armenia, Russia to expand military cooperation

This is very good news and I have noticed that Armenia is trying to boost up the military industry the recent months, as more and more messages appear on the news (Armenian UAV's, military industries exibition in the Armenian Defense HQ, etc...).

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This is very good news and I have noticed that Armenia is trying to boost up the military industry the recent months, as more and more messages appear on the news (Armenian UAV's, military industries exibition in the Armenian Defense HQ, etc...).

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They should have and could have done this long ago. Armenians are very creative and i can't wait to see the weapons that will be made.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ok to get it right we got Azerbiajans only route to Turkey which if there where no Georgia Azeris would be landlocked as Armenia dose.
In the other hand we got Azeris claiming oil reserves to be regional energy center.

They also share a border with Iran and a 18 mile border with Turkey in Nakichevan. There has been talks from Turkey to move troops into Nakichevan as soon as hostilities start. Azeris are also willing for Turkey to open a base in Azerbaijan but not likely....too much political fall out for Turkey (for now).

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

They also share a border with Iran and a 18 mile border with Turkey in Nakichevan. There has been talks from Turkey to move troops into Nakichevan as soon as hostilities start. Azeris are also willing for Turkey to open a base in Azerbaijan but not likely....too much political fall out for Turkey (for now).

But Russia is a guarantor of Nakichevan and wont allow such a move from Turkey. Wouldnt they have to get Russia's permission to move troops to Nakichevan?
Also azerbaijan has claimed it will allow any country that helps solve the conflict to open a military base in azerbaijan
Supposedly its a privilege to open a base in a corrupt country like azerbaijan
Maybe thats why more countries are beginning to side with Armenia.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But Russia is a guarantor of Nakichevan and wont allow such a move from Turkey. Wouldnt they have to get Russia's permission to move troops to Nakichevan?
Also azerbaijan has claimed it will allow any country that helps solve the conflict to open a military base in azerbaijan
Supposedly its a privilege to open a base in a corrupt country like azerbaijan
Maybe thats why more countries are beginning to side with Armenia.

As I understand Russia and Turkey are both the guarantors of Nakichevan.....and yes, Russia has to buy into it.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Always remember guarantors will act for their interests.
Also they do not need to come to an agreement before acting.

Referring to the Cyprus situation Greece, Turkey and UK were guarantors of the independance (security) of Cyprus.
Turkey acted on its own with the right of guarantor ( perhaps with some moral support from UK) and did what it did.

On the other hand Greece was unable (unwilling ) to do anything about it.
Nothing could be changed back (even after 35 years).

A guarantor is as good as its own interest.
Also which guarantor gets in there first.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This photo of their recent meeting is.....priceless!

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This photo of their recent meeting is.....priceless!

Yuk !!

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Lets put those two into a turkish bath togather and sing mozelta.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Analysis: Would Azerbaijan give up oil in exchange for Karabakh?


Despite the statements quite frequently voiced by the Azeri authorities on the possibility of resuming hostilities against Armenia, it is yet extremely premature to speak about prospects of a new war. There are no objective prerequisites in current circumstances that would indicate launch of war in the near future.

Azerbaijan is building its statehood on oil, and oil tariffs nowadays reflect quite positively on main economic indicators. In that view it is highly unlikely that Azerbaijan would go for a cardinal change of situation, especially with most indefinite outcome prospects.

What tangible loss would Azerbaijan suffer in case of resuming the war over Karabakh?

First of all it is Azerbaijan's appeal for investors in the oil sector, in other words – the only stable base for state construction.

In September of 1994, in Baku palace of Gyulistan, an agreement was signed which was later called the Contract of the Century. Thirteen companies were presented in that document among them British Petroleum, McDermott, Lukoil, Turkish Petroleum, and others from eight countries such as Turkey, USA, Japan, Great Britain,etc.

In fact, yet in autumn of 1992, former British Prime-Minister Margaret Thatcher visited Baku as a representative of British Petroleum, however the Contract of the Century was not signed because of the Karabakh war.

Naturally, none of the investing companies in that period could invest big money in Azerbaijan. Only the signing of cease fire in May of 1994 made it possible for the contract to be signed later that year, in September.

As president of State Oil Company of Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR) Rovnag Abdullayev said, “as of today the foreign investment into oil-gas sector of Azerbaijan is over $38 billion”.

It is obvious, that a new war would bring to naught Azerbaijan's appeal to investors, completely destroy the country's economic and even political structure, and Ilham Alliyev would never sign up for to it.

Besides the fact that a new war minimizes the country's attraction for investments, it is fully capable of destroying practically the whole pipeline fairly enough considered the main blood vessel of the Azeri state organism.

The thing is that practically all Azeri hydrocarbon is transported through four pipelines, three of which pass only a few kilometers away from the frontline, on the northern borders of both Karabakh and Armenia: Baku-Tbilisi-Jeihan oil pipeline opened in July of 1996, Baku-Suspa oil pipeline functioning since 1999, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline (South-Caucasian pipeline) officially put into operation in March 2007.

It's not a big secret that Armenian cannons are pointed directly at these communications and in case war would start the destruction of that vitally important to Azerbaijan infrastructure would be the top priority.

As a result, Azerbaijan can lose not only its appeal as a secure investment ground, it might be deprived of all its means of transporting oil and gas to the outer world.

A new war would mean that Azerbaijan might also lose control over a strategic sector of river Kura, along which Baku-Tbilisi railroad lies (it continues further to Turkey). That railroad runs parallel to the pipelines and is again only a few kilometers from the frontline.

One quick-march would be enough to take control over this strategic sector, after which the correlation of power in the region would become principally different.

Armenia, which has been in a blockade for the past twenty years first all by Azerbaijan, can quite successfully explain to the international community the solid reasons for such a step.

Armenian control over a sector of Baku-Tbilisi railroad would in fact cut Azerbaijan not only from Georgia, but also Turkey. The only railway vector into the outer world would, in that case, be the “northern” one connecting to Russia.

The Azeri president is well aware of the scale of these threats, and, not less importantly, their feasibility. He would not go for such obvious risks in exchange for the unobvious prospect of establishing control over Nagorno Karabakh – a territory that has no connection to Azerbaijan whatsoever, neither has it any influence on the tempo of its development.

The only layout of events that could theoretically be in favor of a new war is either drastically shaken positions of Aliyev clan in Baku fraught with an inevitable reprisal, or catastrophic drop of oil tariffs (below $15 per barrel). None of it can be observed at the moment.

http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/24306/azerbaijani_oil_interest_karabakh_conflict