Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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Very odd there is not even a whiff from our illustrious president Serj Sarkissyan.
The country is being bombarded, yet what is he busy with?

Giving honours to Armenchick, the protector and carer of the Armenian nation and its culture.

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[Etchmiadzin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

.

Very odd there is not even a whiff from our illustrious president Serj Sarkissyan.
The country is being bombarded, yet what is he busy with?

Giving honours to Armenchick, the protector and carer of the Armenian nation and its culture.

.

http://news.am/eng/news/287929.html

Armenia President: We will make Azerbaijan government to be accountable to its people

YEREVAN. – The sixth meeting of the Armenian State Commission on Coordination of the events dedicated to the commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, which kicked off Saturday morning at the Office of the President of Armenia, continued at the Government Reception House.

“Dear compatriots,

Before going on to the agenda items, I have something to say about the events of the last two days.

On the eve of the 70th Session of the UN General Assembly and amid the regular peacemaking efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group co-Chairs, before the eyes of the entire world, confident in is impunity, and inspired by the practice of numerous international players to put an equals sign between the conflicting sides’ actions, Azerbaijan again impenitently violated its obligations to maintain the ceasefire. As a consequence of the ceasefire violation, we have suffered painful losses: 4 Armenian young soldiers, the guardians of their motherland’s tranquility, were killed, and one day ago, in their own house, in their own garden, in front of their beloved people were killed 3 women, a mother, a sister and a daughter, who would take care of their family with their peaceful work.

They were killed because an entire world can’t make Azerbaijan understand that the path of human losses, bloodsheds, sufferings and tortures, and of drowning out the voice of its own citizens does not lead to peace, does not lead to prosperity, and does not lead to stability and security.

As demonstrated by the modern history of human kind, the path chosen by Azerbaijani authorities, the path of crimes against humanity either results in an international punishment or leads to the scaffold put up by own people completely run out of patience.

By deviating from the path to the peaceful resolution of the conflict, Azerbaijan is also deviating, gradually and steadily, from the path of other norms of international law. Gradually and steadily, Azerbaijan’s criminal regime is further plunging into the swamp of crimes against humanity.

The law of the civilized world calls upon humanity to put an end to the impunity of crimes against humanity. The Republic of Armenia is committed to this position. We will consistently reveal, disclose and persecute each committer of such crimes, starting from the private solider executing an order to the commander issuing such an order. Lacking alternatives, we ourselves will be humanity’s retributive sword against committers of these crimes. We will do it on our own as long as the civilized world is not able to find a more effective mechanism.

These are not mere words when we say that we do not afraid of war. Armenia and by Armenia I also mean Nagorno-Karabakh as its inseparable part, is one of the most armed zones on the earth. As you know, our grandfathers would say that no pilaf is given out during a battle. And throughout more than 20 years of the imposed ceasefire, which has been impossible to transform into peace on account of Baku’s authorities, we have tried our best to avoid a new confrontation. We will continue in the same vein, and that also includes the revenge for our fallen boys and civilians, and for our women. The enemy must not sleep quietly along the entire frontline, thinking that he has remained unpunished.

We will force Azerbaijan’s government to give an account to its people for causing them continued suffering. This much for now,” said President Serzh Sargsyan.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://news.am/eng/news/287929.html

Armenia President: We will make Azerbaijan government to be accountable to its people

YEREVAN. – The sixth meeting of the Armenian State Commission on Coordination of the events dedicated to the commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, which kicked off Saturday morning at the Office of the President of Armenia, continued at the Government Reception House.

“Dear compatriots, .....

Thank you for keeping us updated. I note the news is dated today 26.9.2015

The President is still open to criticism considering his country was being bombarded for nearly a week and waits for a grand occasion to respond.

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[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It is a horrible position we are in in terms of our options because ultimately whatever we do plays into their hands

Armenia actually managed to withstand the regional economic crisis. Despite the predictions of every financial institution, the Armenian economy is projected to grow 2.5% this year. The Armenian economy and the Armenian Dram both outperformed their Georgian counterparts in the past year, despite the supposed economic sacrifices Armenia made for the EEU for other benefits. The Iranian situation is bound to provide another major boost to our economy. There's a high level of confidence in our army and the low level of corruption within, and we are seeing constant progress in both our arsenal and our performance. The constitution reforms in theory should lead to a better government. Without war not only is victory continued, but we will see economic, political, and military progress. The Armenian government is held fully responsible for any military deaths, and can't use soldiers as sand bangs like the opposition.


Azerbaijan on the other hand is facing total economic and political crisis. The country has transitioned into a full blown authoritarian dictatorship. The sh-- is about to hit the fan in terms of economy. The oil price was expected to stay in mid 50's till 2017, and this was before the Iran deal. With that expect more instability and unrest. They're army, due to a stuttering economy, is as strong as it will ever get. Meaning this is the peak of their military power. From here on, the balance of power will only shift towards us. Continued peace means further entrenchment of Armenia's hold on Karabakh. War means total shutdown on any political or social unrest. It means being able to sacrifice soldiers, many of them minorities, all of whom nobody will hear about if Aliyev choses it to be so.

So our options are to either: (1) let them continue to kill our people by using much higher grade weapons than us without a care in the world, knowing we will be reluctant to start war or (2) give them what they likely want

[Etchmiadzin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It is a horrible position we are in in terms of our options because ultimately whatever we do plays into their hands

And its always they who set the pace they decide if the border is quiet or not and they are the first to escalate things like shooting down choppers and using heavy artillery and Armenia just have to adapt to their terms and crying to OSCE only makes us look weak.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It is a horrible position we are in in terms of our options because ultimately whatever we do plays into their hands

Armenia actually managed to withstand the regional economic crisis. Despite the predictions of every financial institution, the Armenian economy is projected to grow 2.5% this year. The Armenian economy and the Armenian Dram both outperformed their Georgian counterparts in the past year, despite the supposed economic sacrifices Armenia made for the EEU for other benefits. The Iranian situation is bound to provide another major boost to our economy. There's a high level of confidence in our army and the low level of corruption within, and we are seeing constant progress in both our arsenal and our performance. The constitution reforms in theory should lead to a better government. Without war not only is victory continued, but we will see economic, political, and military progress. The Armenian government is held fully responsible for any military deaths, and can't use soldiers as sand bangs like the opposition.


Azerbaijan on the other hand is facing total economic and political crisis. The country has transitioned into a full blown authoritarian dictatorship. The sh-- is about to hit the fan in terms of economy. The oil price was expected to stay in mid 50's till 2017, and this was before the Iran deal. With that expect more instability and unrest. They're army, due to a stuttering economy, is as strong as it will ever get. Meaning this is the peak of their military power. From here on, the balance of power will only shift towards us. Continued peace means further entrenchment of Armenia's hold on Karabakh. War means total shutdown on any political or social unrest. It means being able to sacrifice soldiers, many of them minorities, all of whom nobody will hear about if Aliyev choses it to be so.

So our options are to either: (1) let them continue to kill our people by using much higher grade weapons than us without a care in the world, knowing we will be reluctant to start war or (2) give them what they likely want

Great analysis and exactly what I was thinking. Its a quandary and for the Azeris the time to strike is really now in terms of being at the pinnacle of their supposed capability, otherwise they fall back to their contingency plan which is that they believe Armenia will be devoid of people in 30-40 years or something. Full-scale conflict plays into their hands but I don't see any reason why Armenia cannot conduct similar attacks on their troops- random artillery strikes on their reserve areas. From what I understand, the incident where 4 troops were killed and others injured was behind the front line into secondary positions/frontline support areas. In most sectors on the front, Armenians hold better ground and in those sectors, Armenia should increase occasional shelling and full time sniping. The Azeris are using the death by a thousand paper cuts strategy, Armenia can do the same. Also, it is clear that Nakhichevan is their weak link and Armenia holds the strategically superior territory along the whole border, why not make small encroachments, increase sniper activity, etc? Armenia can make that region suffer. Also, Russia/CSTO should be called to the Tavush region- that artillery strike that killed the elderly women was an attack on Armenia directly. If that doesn't come about or if CSTO does something to end hostilities in that sector and the Azeris continue on their current course, there is no reason why Armenia cannot make the border areas in the Azeri controlled sector suffer in kind. In reality, I don't think the Azeris want a full-scale war but they are trying to goad Armenia for public relations purposes, to appease the masses, to strengthen the Aliyev clan, and test Russia's resolve, counteract the economic downturn, etc. They are all talk with the occasional cowardly action but if they want to play dirty, Armenia should play dirty too. Armenia has nothing to lose, the problem is already intractable. There are many ways to hit back appropriately without full scale war.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think you guys are missing some important points. We have been the passive side because we were fine with the status quo. Things will be different if this escalates into war.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think you guys are missing some important points. We have been the passive side because we were fine with the status quo. Things will be different if this escalates into war.

Actually, I agree somewhat- the status quo works in Armenia's favor but only if Armenia is seen as strong by the enemy. Full scale war does not play into Armenia's hands at the moment, Armenian cannot be seen as the aggressor or the initiating side, furthermore it should only ever attack if all key aspects make victory a certainty. What Armenia does need to do is show some resolve to cement morale, provide the Azeris impetus to think twice before the next cowardly act, etc. Armenia also needs to continue to fortify and increase defensive and counterstrike capabilities- I'm still bewildered why the situation has not been improved in Tavush though.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Great analysis and exactly what I was thinking. Its a quandary and for the Azeris the time to strike is really now in terms of being at the pinnacle of their supposed capability, otherwise they fall back to their contingency plan which is that they believe Armenia will be devoid of people in 30-40 years or something. Full-scale conflict plays into their hands but I don't see any reason why Armenia cannot conduct similar attacks on their troops- random artillery strikes on their reserve areas. From what I understand, the incident where 4 troops were killed and others injured was behind the front line into secondary positions/frontline support areas. In most sectors on the front, Armenians hold better ground and in those sectors, Armenia should increase occasional shelling and full time sniping. The Azeris are using the death by a thousand paper cuts strategy, Armenia can do the same. Also, it is clear that Nakhichevan is their weak link and Armenia holds the strategically superior territory along the whole border, why not make small encroachments, increase sniper activity, etc? Armenia can make that region suffer. Also, Russia/CSTO should be called to the Tavush region- that artillery strike that killed the elderly women was an attack on Armenia directly. If that doesn't come about or if CSTO does something to end hostilities in that sector and the Azeris continue on their current course, there is no reason why Armenia cannot make the border areas in the Azeri controlled sector suffer in kind. In reality, I don't think the Azeris want a full-scale war but they are trying to goad Armenia for public relations purposes, to appease the masses, to strengthen the Aliyev clan, and test Russia's resolve, counteract the economic downturn, etc. They are all talk with the occasional cowardly action but if they want to play dirty, Armenia should play dirty too. Armenia has nothing to lose, the problem is already intractable. There are many ways to hit back appropriately without full scale war.

Definitely agree. We lost seven people in two days. That was about the rate we were losing people during the war, when our civilians were being bombarded with Grads while trapped like animals, while our soldiers were fighting an uphill battle. We lost four boys twenty and under. That's four families that will not exist. That's four warriors who died not defending their country while taking on the enemy, but sitting around, not knowing what hit them. Until this round of violence I thought it was ultimately beneficial to keep taking this humiliation and losses and not taking chances with war.

But we keep emboldening them, and they've shown they have no limit or restrain. Not that I would expect more from a daddy's boy dictator advised by a bunch of draft dodgers and deserters. Why not began randomly, and not just in retaliation, doing everything they do, and specially start working on taking positions in Tavush and Nakhichevan. It doesn't mean starting war, it means only taking things as far as they've taken them. But it should no longer be just in retaliation. Just sitting around, waiting wondering whens the next time we will be humiliated as our civilians are massacred while clueless world powers say random cliche phrases. Then once they are on alert and in defensive positions, thinking we're now allowed to do something. Or always being the morally dignified one and not attacking civilian areas.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Also, as we have witnessed on numerous occasions, the Azeris like to commit cowardly acts immediately prior to any meetings, summits, etc as if that somehow gives them a better position during the negotiations. It's a idiotic and childish position to take- it has the net opposite effect with regards to Armenians.