Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nagorno-karabakh-war-15/

Looking at this battle line map and the dates can anybody say, where during the counter attack did the enemy fall back.

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[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan



The upper circle is Talish. Talish is secure enough where people are living there now. That's why the information in regards to posts taken and positions in the article does not reflect reality.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

My dear Vrej. Let me disagree with your 2&3 points.
Azerbaijan could go the way Georgia ----Karabakh dispute.

My Dear,
When did I talked about BS as HR??

Talk is about modern world, with very accelerated dynamics.
Realities a decade back have turned upside down, and you can't just continue the old divide lines West/East, it is simply not true.
Lines are being redrawn, and as Khrimyan Hayrik said, the ones with a iron sherep try to take their portion of Harissa.
Alas, now we do finally have the iron sherep, but we do refuse to go to the party all toghether, by handing everything to one other bear.....

- US is Turkey's ally, yet it is the US who did create the Kurdish problem out of the blew, with major Israeli participation.
-The US and Iran are supposed enemies, yet whenever you look in the wide spectrum from Afganistan to Damaskos, they cooperate, and this for at least more than a decade... the shiite crescent is effectively a US/UK aftermath....
- Russia is supposed to be the ally of Syria, and Iran, yet it is in very close partenership with Israel while present in Damaskos and Latakya.
- Russia and Turkey were basically allies untille very recently, and yet they do share a common stretegic partener in Baku.
- Fact is that The West did not sell major arms to Baku to this day, and certainly not for HR reasons.
- Fact is , that the same reasons having pushed the creation of a Kurdish factor within Turkey, even if they do seem odd to you, are a good ground for the existence of an other major element: Armenia. And evidently not a russian province named Armenia....
- Whether we are in or out, whether it pleases this or that power, the process is launched, and in my opinion no more stoppable, even if today the US decides to stop it... it will take certainly more time, yet the powder barrel is ignited: the borders will be redrawn in the bigger ME. (thank you G W Bush, national hero of Kurdistan).
- It is up to us to take part, and save at least part of our homeland , turning our landlocked state into more viable one. But in this part, Russia is not at all our ally at all, rather Turkish ally, as history always proved, for objective reasons. I do not blame Russia, it is just normal, 2 weakening empires do cooperate to survive..., and yet again, to avoid 1920-23 situation, we must definitely not be part of the Russian empire, to have the permission for it... no West will back our claims, if we are a russian slave, it will all together go to the Kurds, good western fellows....
- The Goble plan you are referring to is already history, today. At that time turks were close american allies, there was no Kurdish problem, and we were considered russian puppets.
Thanks God, in actual life, the US is not pushing for it, quite the contrary. (that's not to say, it might not be revived).
- Geopolitics is in perpetual move, something actual today is irrelevant tommorrow, and vice versa. The art of politics and diplomacy is to take advantage, when and what is possible for yourself.
- Russia has definitely no merits in the creation of NKR, quite the contrary, back in 1988-94.
- The US has absolutely no interest in merging Azerbaijan with Turkey, quite the opposite. They do their best to keep them apart, since they do perfectly understand that Baku is anyway theirs, and do not see the interest in sharing with Turkey (it is only russians who do not understand this, thanks to high skilled azero-turkish diplomacy). Yet again HR BS is not referred here..., one of the reasons why Washington is happy with the kurrdish proto sovieticus family, is its differences with Turkey....
- Since Baku Ceyhan, times changing, the US/West did a pretty effective job in sabotaging pan turkic plans like Kars-Akhalkalak-tiflis, or Nabucco, etc....
- Today an independent Armenia, strong enough to be semi autonomous and defendable, might well suit the changing dynamics, in a futur American/Iranian axis that is being carved, no matter the denegations, and Israeli, turkish sabotage... (the arabs are not serious, with all their outdated oil mastercards).
- As a matter of fact, the old big game is back on the table, and Turkey will be digested, if not by others, at least by the Kurdish element, and yet again, no matter the Western wishes anymore. What will come for Russia is less certain, but for objective reasons, expansion seems less than likely.
- I am not advocating enemity with Russia, but recovering of our decision making capacity. No matter what we can gain on the battelfield, if Mr Medvedev or putin can just order us back by a phone call...
- Our force is the unity and incredible patriotism of our race, that seems just awakening. No one outside Armenia, and most inside would have bet a penny on our union capacity... these days all the Talin district is, like most regions of Armenia and NKR, in burrials of the fallen boys... yet all the ancient azadamartiks, just try to arrange their affairs to go to the front...., people having passed their chance in last war, are doing their best to take revange. This is not empty words, this nation is transfigurating since 2014... and no one could have guessed in the regime or outside, apart those who did already passed this way back in 1992... I just wish Serjik wakes up, shakes his head, and tries to be pardonned by its kin, and tries to deserve a decent role in history, .... rather than the gambler who missed the golden chance of its people....
- You are alas very wrong, when you think our regime had any talent in dealing with outside powers. Rather they missed every opportunity they could, yet the result of their mistakes, the blood we waste, is the one saving their day...... Hope just that this shameful mismanagement, resulting in this once more missed chance, will force a change on us. At least if we recover our independence, sent the collaborators like nalbantoghlu to hell, we may still have other opportunities ahead.
- Provided we unite, keep our decision making ability, and set clear cut targets for ourselves.

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nagorno-karabakh-war-15/

Looking at this battle line map and the dates can anybody say, where during the counter attack did the enemy fall back.

.

"and tons of Israeli UAV’s (one of them was apparently downed by a hunter with a rifle! Not very good PR for Israel’s defense export industries)."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2R_7inQW7c

^^^ The more we mock them the better off.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The upper circle is Talish. Talish is secure enough where people are living there now. That's why the information in regards to posts taken and positions in the article does not reflect reality.

This is absolute BS.
I can give you info from the boys in Talish/Shahumyan.
All grounds is back, all, apart one single post in the valley of Inja, down our positions upside.
In military terms it is described as undefendable, non strategic.
We decided not to storm it, to avaoid losses, .
So map wrong.

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Once their focus will shift to their internal problems followed by turmoils and economic hardships we will landscape the borders to our advantage.
What they have in armaments is the last they will see for at least another decade.
Looks like the Brits and Russia are fighting on the aliyev regime. Brits want him out and Russia likes him to stay, fear of the alternative. Better have an idiot than a wise one (if any).
We learned a lot from this last venture. We will adjust and wait.

"A Final “Optimistic” Note

As I pointed out in my last post, this year represents the likely peak of Azeri military power relative to Armenia for at least the next decade. "

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nagorno-karabakh-war-15/

Why a decade? Oil prices will stay in the $45 max for a long time. As one video we had posted it stated their Gas reserve unlike the oil is contract base they will have to spend on infrastructure, they will see profits in 10 years (maybe)

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Overview of Karabakh escalation
Interactive map

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/details/209778/

[ArmenPezeshk]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azeri $$ infiltrating congress.

https://cohen.house.gov/press-release/congressman-cohen%E2%80%99s-statement-armenia%E2%80%99s-military-aggression-against-azerbaijan

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This is absolute BS.
I can give you info from the boys in Talish/Shahumyan.
All grounds is back, all, apart one single post in the valley of Inja, down our positions upside.
In military terms it is described as undefendable, non strategic.
We decided not to storm it, to avaoid losses, .
So map wrong.

You didn't understand my post Vrej jan
everyone has become far too hostile here last few days
I think we need to remember were all on the same side
I was just trying to show where Talish is and implying if we have Talish, we have the rest
i was pointing out what you said, that we took the posts in Mardakert back

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

"A Final “Optimistic” Note

As I pointed out in my last post, this year represents the likely peak of Azeri military power relative to Armenia for at least the next decade. "

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nagorno-karabakh-war-15/

Why a decade? Oil prices will stay in the $45 max for a long time. As one video we had posted it stated their Gas reserve unlike the oil is contract base they will have to spend on infrastructure, they will see profits in 10 years (maybe)

I sort of did the math in that energy in azerbaijan thread a few years ago. their profit margin from gas is supposed to be about a small fraction of what their oil margin is. It's not even close.

As far as the peak in strength that he claims to have predicted last year. Well several of us have been saying that on this forum since 2011-12, when we saw their oil peak