Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Why doesnt armenia call on russias help when tavush is being attacked? What exactly has to happen before the defense agreement gets triggered?

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia MOD: Azerbaijan army suffered up to 7 casualties
14:28, 29.12.2016
Region:Armenia, Karabakh, Azerbaijan
Theme: Politics


YEREVAN. – At present, the situation is calm at the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, and the adversary has suffered up to seven military casualties.

Artsrun Hovhannisyan, Spokesperson of the Republic of Armenia (RA) Minister of Defense, informed the above-said.

“The Armed Forces of Armenia are carrying out search and clearance work,” he added. “There are no injured in the RA Armed Forces.”

Azerbaijani troops had launched a diversionary infiltration attempt, on early Thursday morning, at the RA state border, southeast of Chinari village in Tavush Province.

Artsrun Hovhannisyan had informed that the RA Armed Forces entered into a battle with the adversary.

“Snipers’ and grenade launchers’ fires are shot, which continue,” he noted. “The RA Armed Forces fully control the situation by preventing the encroachment of the adversary.”

The adversary was driven back, having suffered injuries and casualties, including in the Armenian military positions, informed the Ministry of Defense (MOD).

“The RA Ministry of Defense possesses of irrefutable evidence of RA state border violation by the Azerbaijani side,” reads the MOD statement. “The military and political leadership of Azerbaijan bears the full accountability for the provocation that took place.”

As a result of this infiltration attempt, however, the Armenian armed forces suffered three casualties: Senior Lieutenant Shavarsh Melikyan, and Privates Edgar Narayan and Erik Abovyan.

Armenia News - NEWS.am

https://news.am/eng/news/365680.html

[Odysseus]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Why doesnt armenia call on russias help when tavush is being attacked? What exactly has to happen before the defense agreement gets triggered?

I wonder this as well. Tavush is Armenia proper, as recognized in our mutual defense treaties. An invasion by a third party to the treaty should trigger some sort of response. I believe it may be due to the scale of the incursion, and the lack of commotion. If the fighting were larger, CSTO may be more than justified in retaliating, but I don't think CSTO will go into a major war over one squad. I believe the Putin-Obama dynamic is at play here as well. Putin being a patient and methodical man would not want to give Obama a reason (which Obama is undoubtedly looking for) to escalate the situation with Russia, either by sanctions or military aid to Ukraine and other Russian enemies (which may include Azerbaijan if Russia were to engage in war with them)
We will have to wait for Trump to be sworn in, and get a hold of US foreign policy before we see any substantial progress in Russian-American relations and their affect on Armenian affairs. It is entirely possible that under Trump's administration, Russia and Armenia will be more free to react to such incursions and even put pressure on Azerbaijan with little or no American meddling.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Why doesnt armenia call on russias help when tavush is being attacked? What exactly has to happen before the defense agreement gets triggered?

An actual war/invasion and not an hour long skirmish? Let's be rational please. The CSTO is not going to draw war plans because Azerbaijan attacked the heavily militarized outskirts of a village.

We should all collectively stop whining to the CSTO every time Azerbaijan launches a raid unless you're ready to send Armenians to die in Tajikistan. How low is everyone's faith in our soldiers? No foreigner is going to fight our wars against Azerbaijan, only we will.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I wonder this as well. Tavush is Armenia proper, as recognized in our mutual defense treaties. An invasion by a third party to the treaty should trigger some sort of response. I believe it may be due to the scale of the incursion, and the lack of commotion. If the fighting were larger, CSTO may be more than justified in retaliating, but I don't think CSTO will go into a major war over one squad. I believe the Putin-Obama dynamic is at play here as well. Putin being a patient and methodical man would not want to give Obama a reason (which Obama is undoubtedly looking for) to escalate the situation with Russia, either by sanctions or military aid to Ukraine and other Russian enemies (which may include Azerbaijan if Russia were to engage in war with them)
We will have to wait for Trump to be sworn in, and get a hold of US foreign policy before we see any substantial progress in Russian-American relations and their affect on Armenian affairs. It is entirely possible that under Trump's administration, Russia and Armenia will be more free to react to such incursions and even put pressure on Azerbaijan with little or no American meddling.

Good analysis. Just to add a caveat about this whole CSTO thing, for the CSTO to even consider a response Armenia most likely has to initiate a formal request. When Syria shot down a Turkish warplane, there was no automatic NATO response. Turkey had to request a NATO meeting (that ended fruitlessly.)

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

An actual war/invasion and not an hour long skirmish? Let's be rational please. The CSTO is not going to draw war plans because Azerbaijan attacked the heavily militarized outskirts of a village.

We should all collectively stop whining to the CSTO every time Azerbaijan launches a raid unless you're ready to send Armenians to die in Tajikistan. How low is everyone's faith in our soldiers? No foreigner is going to fight our wars against Azerbaijan, only we will.

So as long as its a small border clash no problem. I wonder if NATO has the same line of reasoning. Turkey was pretty keen on triggering article 5 when russian airplanes were going inside thier airspace a few hundred meters. Hell they are rasing hell because a non-nato country got invaded (ukraine)

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

October 2016, our soldiers detect and stop an Azeri raid killing at least 2.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You forgot one very important aspect.
Not only does Armenia have no sea, two of out four bordering countries have shut their borders.
That contributes to unfavorable macro and micro economic climate and hampers growth potential.

I was commenting on the government growth expectations.

Clearly the government does not agree with you.

All I was asking was what are the drivers of that growth.

As for the border issues the economy should have adjusted to it by now, after all its an issue that has been running for 20 years.

If this issue was decisive the country would have collapsed by now, it hasn't.

My view is, corruption and incompitance are bigger dangers than current border limitations.

.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I was commenting on the government growth expectations.

Clearly the government does not agree with you.

All I was asking was what are the drivers of that growth.

As for the border issues the economy should have adjusted to it by now, after all its an issue that has been running for 20 years.

If this issue was decisive the country would have collapsed by now, it hasn't.

My view is, corruption and incompitance are bigger dangers than current border limitations.

.

If it hasn't collapsed it doesn't mean automatically the opposite is going to happen.
Any investor, big or small, will study these issues and see the shortcomings and probably shy away from a country that's got more than half of its borders shut.
Corruption? yea sure. There is corruption, and it's not solely at government level, it's at the level of the ordinary people as well.
If I buy a kilo of bananas and the seller has tweaked his/her balance so that it shows heavier..well isn't that corruption?
There's a culture of corruption in Armenia at all levels and it's gonna take a lot to beat it because everybody wants to outsmart the other.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

If it hasn't collapsed it doesn't mean automatically the opposite is going to happen.
Any investor, big or small, will study these issues and see the shortcomings and probably shy away from a country that's got more than half of its borders shut.
Corruption? yea sure. There is corruption, and it's not solely at government level, it's at the level of the ordinary people as well.
If I buy a kilo of bananas and the seller has tweaked his/her balance so that it shows heavier..well isn't that corruption?
There's a culture of corruption in Armenia at all levels and it's gonna take a lot to beat it because everybody wants to outsmart the other.

I was commenting on the government growth expectations.

Clearly the government does not agree with you.

All I was asking was what are the drivers of that growth.....

.