Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[meline]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks for the article Federate!

The following part of it definitely deserves attention because of the clear logic, visionary wisdom and above all, geopolitical insight of the author. I am being sarcastic of course

[QUOTE]

Georgia relies on Azerbaijan for its own gas supplies and for the transit of Azeri gas and oil through the BTC and BTE pipelines, which bring in vital transit fees for Georgia’s struggling economy. Supporting Armenia could lead Baku (in the name of ‘energy security’) to re-route its gas and oil flows through Russia.[/QUOTE]

Georgia serves only as a transit country, linking Azerbaijan and Turkey. "Energy security" plays no role here. The moment the baboons re-route their gas through Russia (which will in no way agree to be a transit zone between az and tr), they will lose Turkey, and that's the last thing they want on earth.


[QUOTE]

It therefore seems likely that Georgia would support Azerbaijan, perhaps closing its border with Armenia and leaving the country almost entirely isolated from the outside world.[/QUOTE]

The cherished hope and dream of the baboons....
It's like they are living in a soap opera

[hipeter924]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The cherished hope and dream of the baboons....
It's like they are living in a soap opera

They will never cut off borders, lol. There is too much money to be made.

[SoyElTurco]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

First Turkish spy satellite be put into orbit in 2012
26.01.2009 17:44 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Telespazio company (Rome), subsidiary of the Group Finmeccanica (Milan) / Thales (Toulouse), specialized in the observation of the ground by satellite and navigation, gained the contract of manufacture of a spy satellite ordered by the Turkish Ministry of Defense, freelance French journalist Jean Eckian told PanARMENIAN.Net.

In spite of the reserves of the Turkish government to entrust the project to a company with French participation, because adoption by the National Assembly of the bill penalizing of the Armenian Genocide negation (2006), the development of the Gokturk satellite returns in Telespazio and Thales Aliena Space. According to officials from Turkish Ministry, Telespazio was preferred at Thales because of the Turkish resentment on the decisions of the French Parliament.

First Turkish military satellite, Gokturk-1 will receive high-definition optical systems with a ground observation oscillating between 2,50 m and 80 cm since an orbit located at 700 kms of altitude.

“The Turkish Ministry of Defense does not hide its intention to combat terrorism by the means of this satellite, which will see also its qualities used in the civil monitoring of the activities such as the control of the forest grounds, the follow-up of illegal construction, etc, without any geographical restriction,” declared Murad Bayar, under-secretary of defense industries. The satellite should be put into orbit in 2012.

Taken from: http://panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=28343

Have the Russians ever supplied Armenia with satellite intel?

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan says 3 Armenian soldiers dead in clash
Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:01am EST

BAKU, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Azerbaijan said on Tuesday its forces had killed three Armenian soldiers in fighting near breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh late on Monday.

The Azeri Defence Ministry said Armenian soldiers had attacked an Azeri checkpoint in the Agdam district adjacent to the rebel territory.

Officials in the region's Armenian-backed administration could not be reached for comment.

Mainly populated by Armenians, Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in the late 1980s, sparking a war that killed an estimated 30,000 people. Armenian forces also seized seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.

A ceasefire was agreed in 1994 but clashes are common between forces manning the frontline.

"Three Armenian soldiers died in fighting which lasted for around one hour in the village of Javakhirli, Agdam district, when Armenian forces attempted to seize an Azeri checkpoint," the Azeri Defence Ministry said in a statement.

It said one body had been left in Azeri-controlled territory. (Reporting by Afet Mehtiyeva; writing by Matt Robinson)

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSLR521757

~~~~~~

Another Deadly Skirmish Reported In Karabakh

By Emil Danielyan

At least two Armenians were shot dead in the latest exchange of fire along the Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact east of Nagorno-Karabakh that was reported on Tuesday.

According to the Day.az online news agency, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said its forces deployed east of the Armenian-controlled town of Aghdam killed three Armenian soldiers and wounded several others as they repelled an attack on their positions late on Monday. “Azerbaijani troops suffered no casualties,” said a ministry spokesman, Eldar Sabiroghlu.

The Armenian side came up a different version of events. A spokesman for Nagorno-Karabakh’s Defense Army, Senor Hasratian, said the skirmish broke out after a civilian resident of Karabakh “attempted to move towards Azerbaijani positions” and was shot dead moments later. In a statement, Hasratian said the 25-year-old was drunk and “suffered from a mental illness.”

The statement said that Karabakh Armenian soldiers failed to hold the man back and that one of them, identified as Arkady Hakobian, was also killed in the ensuing firefight. “According to preliminary information, the enemy also suffered casualties,” it added.

Armenian-Azerbaijani skirmishes have been a regular occurrence ever since a Russian-mediated truce stopped the bloody war in Karabakh in 1994. Dozens of soldiers on both sides are reportedly killed in such incidents every year.

Ceasefire violations appear to have become more frequent last year prompting serious concern from foreign powers seeking to broker a peaceful solution to the Karabakh conflict. In a joint statement issued in early December, top diplomats from the United States, Russia and France called on the conflicting parties to bolster the ceasefire regime by pulling back snipers from their frontline positions.

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2009/01/0ACB5CAC-AFE1-4B59-93B6-2AB862140EE6.ASP

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Its more made up crap i am sure.Fighting and casualties i can believe in but (when Armenian forces attempted to seize an Azeri checkpoint) is simply laughfable.Like why would we risk our men in siezing a azeri chekpoint when we already have the higrounds and all strategic points.The Azeri media is like watching cayoty chase the roadrunner.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

In Post-Soviet States, Finally a Time for Sergeants
February 01, 2009



WINDOW ON EURASIA
by: Paul the c0ck sucking Globle prostitute

Vienna, January 31 – Russia and Armenia announced this week that they will build their armed services in the future around professional non-commissioned officers, a change that will bring them in line with Western militaries, fundamentally change the duties of junior officers, and possibly reduce the number of violations of military law in the ranks.

During the Cold War, one of the most striking differences between NATO forces and the armies of the Warsaw Pact countries was that the former had professional sergeants and other non-commissioned officers and the latter did not. And that difference, many analysts insisted at the time, had a major impact on the very different nature of the two forces.

The existence of professional non-commissioned officers in NATO armies meant that officers could be officers and that long-serving sergeants could play a major role in running their units and preventing the outbreak of the kind of tensions that existed between officers and men in Warsaw Pact armies where there were no such professionals.

With the demise of the Warsaw Pact and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, many East European countries, including the three Baltic States, who aspired to NATO membership and now in many cases have achieved it, began the process by moving to create the corps of professional sergeants typical of the militaries of the Western alliance.

But the 12 countries that emerged following the disintegration of the USSR have generally retained the older Soviet system of relying on senior draftees to serve as sergeants, an arrangement that increases the burdens on junior officers and frequently leads to outbreaks of "dedovshchina," the Russian term for mistreatment of junior draftees by more senior ones.

Now, this week, two more of these countries – the Russian Federation and Armenia -- have broken ranks and are beginning to create a professional NCO system, not because either of them aspires to NATO membership but rather because they have become convinced that having professional sergeants will make their forces more militarily capable.

Starting tomorrow, the first of what are slated by 2016 to be 250,000 professional sergeants (a number which by the way is planned to exceed the number of officers at that time by 100,000) will begin training in six higher military schools. Most will pursue a 34 month course, focusing not only on technical subjects but on teaching and psychology.

That program, Nikita Petrov says in a commentary prepared for the Novosti news agency, is designed to teach the future sergeants how to conduct "individual work with soldiers. To be for them not only bosses but also senior comrades, something that unfortunately not all officers today are able of doing.

As of September, professional sergeants will be studying at a total of 68 Russian military schools, and this system is intended to produce some 15,000 NCOs every year. A smaller number of NCOs will be given a shorter course of instruction, at least initially, although it is unclear how long that alternative program will continue.

Meanwhile, Armenia has announced that it is well on the way to creating a professional army with professional NCOs as well, a step that in addition to Russia, four other former Soviet republics -- Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine -- are now taking and one that will likely prompt others, in the first instance their neighbors, to do the same.

A commentary in the Baku newspaper "Zerkalo" today argues that Azerbaijan should take that step both to boost military efficiency and improve conditions for draftees both legally and practically, although it notes that Azerbaijan so far has not adopted the necessary legislation to take this step.

As has been the case elsewhere, the paper notes, there is certain to be resistance to this step from the officer corps who see the rise of professional sergeants, many of the most senior of whom are likely to be paid far more than junior officers as a threat to their status and perquisites. But now that Armenia and Georgia have taken that step, Azerbaijan may follow suit.

And that trend could have an outcome that will strike many as paradoxical: Even those countries which do not aspire to NATO membership or actively oppose that idea are now copying "a NATO standard" in organizing their militaries, something that will almost certainly benefit the soldiers in these forces and hence ultimately the countries they serve.

[AR MENIA]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Diplomatic Traffic, DC
Feb 1 2009

Russian Arms to Armenia Could Change Azerbaijan's Foreign Policy
Fariz Ismailzade


The recent thaw in Russian-Azerbaijani relations seems to be coming to
a sudden end, as Azerbaijani media outlets circulate news of Russian
arms deliveries to Armenia in the amount of US$800 million. The news
sparked huge protests both among the Azerbaijani general public and
politicians. More importantly, it created a sense of treason among the
political leadership of Azerbaijan, which had been promised support
from Russia in the aftermath of the Georgian-Russian war. Such
disappointment could result in grave geopolitical shifts in the region
and changes in Azerbaijan's foreign policy course towards NATO.

BACKGROUND: On January 6, Azerbaijani media outlets reported that
Russian defense officials transferred weapons and other military
hardware worth US$ 800 million to Armenia in 2008. The evidence
consisted of a document containing the signature of a Russian defense
official and a detailed list of the transferred weapons. As becomes
clear from the document, the weapons used to belong to a Russian
military bases in Georgia, which was later withdrawn in accordance
with OSCE requirements and relocated to Armenia. At that time, Russian
political and military officials responded to Azerbaijani concerns
about the relocation by stating that the weapons and other military
equipment in the military base would remain the property of the
Russian Federation, and would not be transferred to Armenia. `Russia
promised Azerbaijan that the weapons would not be given to Armenia,'
says political analyst Rasim Musabekov.

The current news had the effect of a thunderstorm from a blue
sky. Azerbaijani officials immediately reacted to the news by harshly
condemning the Russian actions and citing its negative consequences
for peace and stability in the region. Various members of Parliament,
along with renowned public figures and policy analysts, have written
op-eds and spoken on TV about this incident. For instance, Anar
Mammadkhanov, a Member of Parliament and close loyalist of President
Ilham Aliyev, referred to the sale as `unexplainable Kremlin
boorishness.'

The Azerbaijani Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense have
launched an investigation of the issue, which concluded that an
illegal transfer of weapons from Russia to Armenia has indeed taken
place. The reaction was very harsh. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs
summoned the Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan and expressed deep
frustration with the incident. The press release of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs said, `The transferred weapons strengthen the military
capacity of Armenia, which occupies 20 percent of Azerbaijan's
territory. By doing this, Russia violated its own promises and the UN
General Assembly resolutions.'

It should be noted that it is not the first instance of Russian
`donations' of weapons and military equipment to Armenia, its
strategic ally and military outpost in the South Caucasus, which is a
the only member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the
South Caucasus. Back in 1997, a scandal erupted when the head of the
Defense Committee of the Russian Duma, Lev Rokhlin, discovered and
announced that Russia had illegally transferred weapons to Armenia in
the amount of US$1 billion. After Azerbaijan's fierce protests, the
Russian Defense Ministry launched an investigation, but has to date
failed to punish the officers responsible. Rokhlin himself was
subsequently killed in a mysterious accident and the issue was largely
forgotten.

After the recent incident, Azerbaijanis again recalled the incident of
the late 1990s. `Only God knows how many other transfers Russia has
made to Armenia, both legally and illegally,' says Ilgar Mammadov, a
Baku-based political analyst, in his blog. It is not clear where all
these weapons are stored. If they are stored in Armenia, it is
questionable how this corresponds to the limitations imposed by the
Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. It seems that Armenia
has previously been exceeding the quotas of this treaty. One way to
circumvent this problem could be to transfer the weapons to
Nagorno-Karabakh, which continues to remain an soon after unmonitored
zone by international organizations. If this would be the case, the
conflict zone becomes even more militarized, significantly reducing
chances for a peaceful resolution.

Most government officials are convinced that despite all the peace
rhetoric, Russia continues to arm Armenia and remain interested in
maintaining the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict unresolved. The incident is
especially damaging since it was reported only one month after
President Aliyev signed the Moscow Declaration on Nagorno-Karabakh
together with Russian President Medvedev and Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan. Although Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov phoned his
Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov to convince him that no such
transfer has taken place, the Azerbaijan side is convinced otherwise.

IMPLICATIONS: It is clear that the weapons transfer incident will play
an extremely damaging role in Russia-Azerbaijan relations. These
relations have been improving in the past several years, with
President Ilham Aliyev reaching out to Moscow and downplaying his NATO
aspirations in favor of accommodating Russian interests and building
pragmatic relations with the Kremlin. Economic cooperation and trade
between Russia and Azerbaijan reached its highest levels in
2008. President Medvedev visited Baku and expressed an interest in
buying all Azerbaijan's gas. President Aliyev visited Moscow on a
number of occasions and expressed an interest in building deeper and
more constructive relations with Moscow.

On the one hand, this was done to improve the chances for a peaceful
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (Moscow is one of the
co-chairs of the Minsk group and an influential partner of
Armenia). On the other hand, Aliyev sincerely wanted to help Russia
improve its image on the international arena. For instance, during the
Georgian-Russian conflict, Aliyev refrained from accusing Russia of
aggression. He subsequently signed the Moscow Declaration ` not a
breakthrough in the peace negotiations as sometimes suggested, but
nevertheless a boost for the Kremlin's image as a peace broker in the
South Caucasus following its invasion of Georgia. All of these
gestures were aimed at winning Moscow's favor.

After this incident, frustration among the political leadership in
Baku is obvious. It is perhaps a wake-up call for the Azerbaijani
public and officials, who increasingly believe that Moscow will always
be guided by zero-sum games and interested in maintaining the
conflicts in the former Soviet space unresolved, and that Moscow will
continue to support Armenia despite the fact that it stands to gain
much more by acting as a neutral player in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

After the Russian-Georgian war last August, there had been some hope
in Baku that Moscow might alter its blatant support for Armenia and
become more cooperative in seeking to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. In return, Azerbaijan would desist from following Georgia's
path to NATO membership, and Azerbaijan would deliver its gas to
Russia rather than to the Nabucco pipeline project. Importantly,
voices calling for that have now vanished. Indeed, the voices in Baku
promoting broader security arrangements with NATO and the EU, and
viewing Euro-Atlantic integration as the only way to ensure stability
in the South Caucasus are gaining ground. That in turn takes place
just as the U.S. has signed documents on strategic partnership with
both Georgia and Ukraine.

CONCLUSIONS: In the aftermath of the war in Georgia, Azerbaijani
officials were evidently greatly frustrated with the weak reaction of
the West and Turkey's submissive attitude to Moscow. (See 3 September
CACI Analyst) Briefly, Baku flirted with the idea of making a deal
with Russia on both gas supplies and the Karabakh conflict. Yet the
discovery of huge Russian arms deliveries to Armenia not only force
Azerbaijan to purchase more weapons and thus further militarize the
region ` it deals serious damage to Russian-Azerbaijani relations at a
personal level. Russia's actions are now interpreted as irrational,
emotional and unpredictable behavior. Baku's flirt with Moscow seems
resolutely over, which could rejuvenate its ties with the West ` if
the West is interested in investing in ties to Baku.

AUTHOR'S BIO: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance analyst in Baku. He has
been a frequent contributor for Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
publications since 2002.

First published in the 01/28/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst:
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5021.

http://www.diplomatictraffic.com/debate.asp?ID=698

[Muhaha]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

None of this sounds like good news to me. Am I the only one who would rather have Armenia be blockaded on both sides than to have to compromise in some kind of Turkey-Led plan? What I fear the most is Artsakh becoming detached from mainland Armenia. I don't want it to end up being an enclave.
---------------------------------------

Azerbaijan-Armenia agree on Turkey-led Nagorno-Karabakh plan

Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a partial agreement on a solution plan for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The agreement came after the Turkish foreign minister’s contacts with officials from both countries, Hurriyet daily reported on Wednesday.

The sides agree on the four points of the draft plan that aimed at resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Hurriyet added.

According to the plan, Armenia will return some of the towns surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan in a specific timetable and repatriate the Azeris who were forced to leave the regions, the report said.

The administration of the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be handed to a provisional body and Kelbejer will be returned to Azerbaijan after the status of the region is determined, Hurriyet added.

The railroad and highway between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be opened, while an international peace force will be deployed at the border region between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the report said.

Officials said any step taken towards the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will have a positive impact on Turkey-Armenia relations. Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in the 1990s to protest Yerevan's occupation of Azerbaijani territory.

BABACAN'S CONTACTS

Hurriyet said the agreement came after the busy meeting traffic of Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. He met with Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian and President Serzh Sargsyan on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.

He later held a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Memmdyarov on the plane on their way to Ankara. On board, the two ministers took the snap decision not to land in Ankara but travel onto Baku where they met with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev on Monday.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a frozen conflict legacy of the Soviet Union, has been standing at the center of Azerbaijan-Armenia and Turkey-Armenia relations. Turkey closed its borders with Armenia due to Yerevan's aggression against Azerbaijan.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia began in 1988 on Armenian territorial claims over Azerbaijan. Since 1992 Armenian Armed Forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its seven surrounding districts.

Both countries continue with fruitless peace negotiations. The OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the United States, Russia, and France, is engaged in efforts to the conflict peacefully.

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/world/10973281.asp?gid=244

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

None of this sounds like good news to me. Am I the only one who would rather have Armenia be blockaded on both sides than to have to compromise in some kind of Turkey-Led plan? What I fear the most is Artsakh becoming detached from mainland Armenia. I don't want it to end up being an enclave.

Don't take this news too seriously Muhaha. It's just propaganda that will probably be refuted tomorrow by Armenia. They announced a copy news like this a few months ago too and it turned out bogus.

[gmd]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

FOREIGN MINISTRY OF ARMENIA TO REJECT TURKISH MEDIA: NAGORNO KARABAKH NEGOTIATIONS ARE BASED ON MADRID PRINCIPLES

Panorama.am
11:47 11/02/2009

"The negotiations over Artsakh conflict are not conducted through Turkey," announced the head of public relations department of the Foreign Ministry Tigran Balayan commenting on the information spread by Turkish "Hurriyet" that by the support of Turkey agreements have been made over Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

"Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan has announced many times that the negotiations over the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict are held in the frames of the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs based on Madrid principles," said Tigran Balayan.

Remind: Turkish media spread information that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed upon four points of the conflict project. According to which Armenia should return back some cities where the refugees should inhabit, Kelbadjar will be returned back to Azerbaijan, when the NKR status is defined roads connecting Armenia and Azerbaijan will be opened.