Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Sarkisyan were right in 1 thing we should adopt European models of those above countries.

Sounds like good idea.

As a citizen ( all be it a spiritual citizen of Armenia) I would like to know specifics.

Which part of this "model" work will start ( or has started).
Why were these areas identified as priorities.
What improvements should we expect to see once these sub-projects are concluded.
What resources have been allocated.
What are the target timescales.
Can we have regular updates from the relevant project or civil service heads.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Must have been a major operation. Do not recal any such story.

Is there any substance to this or just slanted propaganda.

At great cost in terms of lives and equipment, the Azeris were able to take back some of the towns such as Horadiz and some small villages around Fizuli in the winter/early months of 1994, generally after using human wave tactics. Most of those areas were low-lying and strategically untenable and could only be held at great cost so they were essentially left to the Azeris after inflicting damage to the attackers. Small sections of Mardakert and most of Shahumian are under Azeri control. Horadiz, near the Iran border and changed hands several times. The Azeri threw everything they had at the Armenians and they got little in return. By late 1991 the Azeris were already in control of Shahumian, we can thank the Soviet OMON forces for that one.


There were two large coordinated campaigns against Artsakh, one in the summer of 1992 and an additional one in Dec 1993-March 1994. The former was initially a success but was rolled back by re-grouped and re-constituted Armenian force. By the Fall of the year, the Armenians re-took all the Azeri gains. In the Spring and Summer of 1993, the Armenians went on the offensive in several fronts and we know what happened then.

The later Azeri offensive occured when Aliyev Sr. wanted to show his muscle and ended in disaster for the Azeris {read about 4,000 Azeri troops trapped in a valley around the Omar Mt. pass who were decimated}. They lost over 11,000 and only made small, superficial gains. The Armenians counter-attacked but ran low on fuel and were told by the Russians to stand down. The road to Baku was open. On the one hand, moving ahead might have put the proverbial nails in the Azeri coffin, on the other hand, it would have spread Armenian forces thin in unfamiliar, low-lying territory with an army already running low in supplies. The international rebuke would have been very harsh as well.

Regarding Horadiz, the Armenians have control the stragtegic heights above the town though and during the war would send in send small units to infilitrate and take over either sections if not the whole town itself. They would then set up ambush points and snipers for the inevitable Azeri counter-attack. At great expense, the Azeris would essentially be allowed to re-capture the town. Armenian forces would at their own initiative slowly pull back to their lines.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think we must look it from another angle, a new war could end up disastrous for Armenia, even if we win and maintain Artsakh. As we all know, Armenians are not famous for making kids, compared to the Azeri/Turks. Even if they are poor, they somehow manage to make a lot of children.

We have a population of about 2-3 million in Armenia, that is really thé minimum population for a nation to survive. If another, more heavier and deadlier war breaks out, how many people will flee this time?

Artsakh will be turned into a war errupted dead zone again, and this time they might even begin attacking Armenia from above. Even if a half a million people would flee, only two million Armenians would remain. If so, they have achieved their goal. They will still have about eight million population in Azerbaboonistan.

It is a long-term project, they are inflicting damage to us over the past hundreds of years, we as a nation are getting smaller and smaller, and if nothing is done (like untill now) the future is not bright.

Another war will break out, people will flee, Azerbaboonistan might loose, but what about the war after this war, if they have a population of 12 million and only 2 million Armenians are left in Armenia? (And if there are more than a million of Azerbaboons in Georgia, and just less then 150.00 Armenians left in Javakh).

I think this is a serious threat, and actually the most dangerous threat that excist for the Republic of Armenia. We must deal with the corrupt thieves in Armenia, try to build a wealthy country and first try to higher the standards of living for our brothers and sisters, whereafter we can locate our goal for other Armenians to repatriate back to Armenia as soon as possible.

It's just a shame that the mentality of most of the Armenians has been damaged perminatly, and they do not care about Armenia, but only think of themselves.

I have had two j-e-w-s in my class, both of them have repatriated back to Israel with their whole family. They also paid a monthly fee to Israel, because they had an Israeli passport, could you imagine an Armenian outside of Armenia pay 3-5% of his wage monthly to our government for support?

This, ofcourse, has to do with the corruption what really needs to change (even though almost every Israeli minister has been accused of corruption too), but I had a conversation last week with hayastanci's where I was telling about a Dutch organisation that supports children in Armenia, and we could ''adopt'' children for only 10 euro's a month to help them.

Immediatly they began telling that they are stealing all the money, and why should they? Nobody is to be trusted in Armenia. Even though they have enough money, they are not even prepared to donate 10 euro's for the sake of children.

There are a lot of good examples too, but the mentality of the majority if xxxxed-up, I think.

Also, we should never think that we could easily win, but must always focus on the worst case scenario. And ofcourse, the broader consequences of the war.

You make valid points, we cannot look at things through rose colored glasses. Armenians would be wise to follow the Israeli model. Having lived through the Soviet system/ collectives, etc and with the current level of corruption, Armenians are wary of the Kibbutz-system but I could see that working for Armenia.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

First from were did u get the idea that a nation has to be 100 million to survive just take a look at Sweden or Norway Holland Baltic states,Israel,its all about the laws and political system in the country.
Sarkisyan were right in 1 thing we should adopt European models of those above countries.

Are you seriously comparing European countries with Armenia? Even the countries you mention have a population of 5-15 million. I would be very happy if Armenia someday in the future would have a population of over 5 million, but that is not likely if we look at the prospects.

Further you missed the point, a country like Norway, Holland, Luxemburg excist because they have no enemies, they are surrounded by friendly countries with almost the same ethnic people and have a huge amount of money.

You can not compare their situation to ours, we are surrounded by enemies who have a population of almost 10 and 70 million. Even nowadays we struggle to supply enough soldiers to guard our borders, the population Armenia has is thé minimum to survive in a situation like ours.

As I said before, a new war, even won, would be desastrous for Armenia in long-term prospects (thousands of Armenians fleeing the country), as the Turks/Azeris inflict damage after damage after damage until they have reached their goal. Unless, we drastically change our politics, culture, mentality and heavily involve Diaspora Armenians in all the phases of life in Armenia.

In the coming 10-15 years, a new war won't brake out. We have a chance to solve all these future problems in the coming decade, and I hope we shall succeed. The key for Armenia's future existence is simple, population growth.

[jgk3]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The key for Armenia's future existence is simple, population growth.

So what do you rate as more important, increasing the population or reducing poverty and social distrust in Armenia? From what I hear, too many Armenians are only concerned with getting enough money to make ends meet and don't care if they have to engage in dishonest, cut-throat practices against other Armenians if it means they can survive. This is less efficient than if this cut-throatness was directed towards our actual enemies.

There is a lacking of motivation for many Armenian workers to make full use of their prowess because they feel they are cheated by the system. That's why I like the idea of giving lands to Armenian settlers in the occupied territories of Artsakh. These families will hold that only the Azeris are a threat to their existence, and will do their utmost to serve Armenian interests in order to protect themselves. This is the attitude that needs to be cultivated in all Armenians, and is more important that matching in number to Azerbaijan's poverty stricken, demotivated populace. We must set our citizenry apart from theirs in terms of quality before quantity.

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Are you seriously comparing European countries with Armenia? Even the countries you mention have a population of 5-15 million. I would be very happy if Armenia someday in the future would have a population of over 5 million, but that is not likely if we look at the prospects.

Further you missed the point, a country like Norway, Holland, Luxemburg excist because they have no enemies, they are surrounded by friendly countries with almost the same ethnic people and have a huge amount of money.

You can not compare their situation to ours, we are surrounded by enemies who have a population of almost 10 and 70 million. Even nowadays we struggle to supply enough soldiers to guard our borders, the population Armenia has is thé minimum to survive in a situation like ours.

As I said before, a new war, even won, would be desastrous for Armenia in long-term prospects (thousands of Armenians fleeing the country), as the Turks/Azeris inflict damage after damage after damage until they have reached their goal. Unless, we drastically change our politics, culture, mentality and heavily involve Diaspora Armenians in all the phases of life in Armenia.

In the coming 10-15 years, a new war won't brake out. We have a chance to solve all these future problems in the coming decade, and I hope we shall succeed. The key for Armenia's future existence is simple, population growth.

They have money cause they stick to there system for long time plus they have companies that export allot of goods.Israel is also sournded by enemyes see Iran also.

We can be like them in the past 1988 all had jobs and no poverty.
I believe that if we had strong political will we would had at the maximum point our current achievements.Not as rich but maybe happier.

Why can't Armenia have same schools with Europe or USA.Its so costly?
Don't take it there 1991 we had no electricity cause government where selling it to other countries people got pure not cause of the war,do u know any countries in time of the collapse being rich or had disaster in there economies?

Its all about the Soviet System.Our first president Levon-Ter-Petrosyan where against the war.The drafts of young people where of age to go in the army they did not send soldiers to war,what has done is done only by Artsax warriors,only at the end Armenia stunted for here rights and that people bring the end of war.

New war will help our side but is better to happen after the big projects take end.So if it happen after 2012-2014 we will happily wait it.

[jgk3]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

So if it happen after 2012-2014 we will happily wait it.

It's better to win wars without fighting than with. We are winning it in Artsakh as we speak. Why would anyone want to initiate major hostilities if we can just keep the higher ground and keep Aliyev clowning around with his rhetoric just to keep his dynasty from getting thrown out?

I'd be more worried about, not Azerbaijan's war rhetoric, but future shifts in policy of major powers and how this would work in conjunction with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

They have money because they are surrounded by allies (which are the richest countries in the world), live in a comfortable and stable region, have open access to sea and millions of other advantages that we do not have. You can not compare Armenia with European countries.

Everyone loses in war. We lost a million Armenians in the turbulent and chaotic times from 1988-1994. Don't be as naive as to think it can't happen again.

@ jgk3, I find it both evenly important. We must focus on several issues and deal with them all, at the same time. We will not have a second chance to do so, we must try to reduce poverty and at the same time increase the population (for example by repatriation of wealthy Diaspora Armenians).

I have come in contact with an Armenian family (from Artsakh) with twelve children! They live in a container... it is hard to believe, millions of wealthy Armenians around the world and to this day thousands of Armenian families still live in a container. I will visit them this summer, anyone interested in helping other poor families in Armenia can PM me (via a Dutch non-government organisation).

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Tigranakert what are you talking about? Do you know that there was almost no one leaving during the war years every one left after the war was done. When the war was going on the people saw a reason why there was so much hardship. We will never start the war, but when the war is started I want our men to go for a total victory and destroy the enemy. No one wants a war but the chances are big that it will happen. We as a people need to fight to survive. Because if we don't fight we will be killed.

@Urmistake
I will be the first one to say to you what kind of a scum Levon was and how he sabotaged the war. But how can you say that there were no Hayastancis fighting there. Do you know how many young men were sent there? Or how many that went voluntarily? They were the biggest part of the forces fighting there. I have a relative who went to fight there and who is in the army right now and I wont let you insult what he and people like him did.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

14-year old Gadabay resident captures Armenian soldier crossed Azerbaijan’s border and hands him to Azerbaijani servicemen – UPDATED
[ 16 Jul 2009 13:02 ]
Aghdam. Teymour Zahidoghlu – APA. An Armenian soldier, who crossed the Azerbaijan’s border, was captured at about 20.30 on July 15 in Mormor village of Gadabay region of Azerbaijan bordering with Armenia, APA Karabakh bureau reports.

14-year old villager Fariz Nabiyev met an unknown soldier with suspicious behavior while tending sheep in the area. The young shepherd identified that he is an Armenian soldier, rendered him harmless and handed to the Azerbaijani military servicemen. It is not clear yet why the Armenian soldier crossed the Azerbaijani borders.

There is no official comment on the incident yet.

http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=105141