Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azeri gas output to rise, oil stable in 2012--SOCAR
Thu Feb 2, 2012 3:53pm GMT Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]
BAKU Feb 2 (Reuters) - Azerbaijan plans to keep oil production at 45.45 million tonnes (about 910,000 barrels per day) in 2012, slightly up from 45.40 million tonnes produced in 2011 and to increase its gas output to 28.28 billion cubic metres (bcm) from 25.70 bcm a year ago, Khoshbakht Usifzade, a first vice-president with Azeri state energy company SOCAR, said.

Oil and condensate production in Azerbaijan in 2011 fell 10.7 percent year-on-year to 45.4 million tonnes from 50.8 million tonnes in 2010. Natural gas output fell 2.3 percent to 25.7 bcm from 26.3 bcm in 2010.

SOCAR officials said that decline was due to repair work on some drilling platforms and refineries.

Usifzade told Republica daily in an interview that 37.1 million tonnes of oil and condensate would be produced this year by the BP-led AIOC group, which operates Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli (ACG) oilfields in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea as well as the country's huge Shah Deniz gas field.

He said that 13.1 bcm of natural gas was expected to be produced at ACG, up from 11.7 bcm produced in 2011.

He added that 8.0 bcm of gas would be produced at Shah Deniz, up from 6.7 bcm in 2011, while SOCAR would produce 7.18 bcm of gas at old gas fields.

Usifzade put Azerbaijan's proven gas reserves at 2.55 trillion cubic metres (tcm), while total estimated gas reserves were at 3.45 tcm.

The country's proven oil reserves are at 2.0 billion tonnes, while total estimated reserves were 5.0 billion tonnes, he said. (Reporting by Lada Yevgrashina; writing by Margarita Antidze in Tbilisi; editing by James Jukwey)

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E8D25CR20120202

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azeri Oil Export Significantly Down in 2011
Azerbaijan’s overall export of oil products dropped by 21.6% in 2011. SOCAR exported 155.663 thousand tons of crude oil through Novorossiysk port (Black sea, Russia), 161.697 thousand tons – through Supsa port (Black sea, Georgia), 1,645.230 thousand tons – Jeyhan port (Mediterranean sea, Turkey). Compared to December, 2010, oil export through Novorossiysk port dropped 6%, through Jeyhan port decreased by 49% last month.
SOCAR says 1,988.429 thousand tons of crude oil was exported through Novorossiysk port, 2,652.111 thousand tons through Supsa port, 22,969.480 thousand tons through Jeyhan port in 2011 in total.
The volume of oil exported in Novorossiysk direction decreased by 11.2% in comparison with last year, the volume of oil exported from Jeyhan port decreased by 38.4% .
Reminded that CESD stated in its November 16, 2011 report that the latest forecasting confirm that oil boom in Azerbaijan is doomed to end in a few years. Azerbaijan’s high dependence on oil exports poses a potential threat to the economy given the potential volatility in the international oil market. Oil reserves, however, started decreasing in 2011 and last year was pick in oil production. In long term, decreasing of oil output will cause tax revenues decline and budget deficits increase, driving up interest rates.
CESD assessment model also include tendency of decreasing of oil production in Azerbaijan. State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) produced 50 million ton oil in 2010. SOCAR targets 46 million ton for 2011 which 4 million ton less than last year’s output. Meanwhile, the latest predictions confirm that oil production will be decreased to about 33 million ton in 2015. Even with current prices of crude oil in the world market, SOFAZ’s assets will be totally spent within the budget lines if current unbelievable transfers’ level kept. Keeping such fantastic transfers can result in negative consequences because of theatrical cutting of budget expenditure lines due to potential lack of financial resources.
BTC pipeline extends to 1768km, including 443 km in Azerbaijan, 248 km in Georgia and 1076 km in Turkey. The shareholders of the BTC Co company are BP (30.1%), SOCAR (25%), Chevron (8.9%), Statoil (8.71%), TPAO (6.53%), Itochu (3.4%), Amerada Hess (2.36%), ENI (5%), ConocoPhilliрs (2.5%), Inрex (2.5%), Total (5%).
© CESD, 2012

http://cesd.az/new/2012/01/azeri-oil-export-significantly-fell-in-2011/

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Enlightening articles UrMistake!

You'd think that Azerbaijan would at least find some BS excuse to lower output in light of these findings, but those geniuses at SOCAR are actually lying to themselves.

My only questions is: is it normal for countries to keep reserve amounts a state secret, or is it just the policy of Azerbaijan? If it is the latter, then that itself would be a great indicator as to how concerned the Azeris are.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

well, all countries have weapons cache, no sane country goes to war without it. Also, In the mentioned above price includes service, logistics, personnel expenses, weapons etc.
And in the case of war , Azerbaijan will use its strategic oil fund to buy more toys. We don't have such a thing, so it will be either russians supplying us, or diaspora money/plus whatever we got.
the question is how long can armenia fight a war? 1, 2, 3 years?

You missed two other resources
1- Iran will in no doubt help in other ways (intel, supplies, etc) than military hardware
2- Armenians have this bad habit of confiscating ( hit it, take it, fix it, repeat) enemies military hardware and using it against them......in other words there will be no shortage of weapons on the battlefield.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You missed two other resources
1- Iran will in no doubt help in other ways (intel, supplies, etc) than military hardware
2- Armenians have this bad habit of confiscating ( hit it, take it, fix it, repeat) enemies military hardware and using it against them......in other words there will be no shortage of weapons on the battlefield.

Will a conflict have any effect on Iran's aid to Nackchivan? Iranian help is sustaining them, without which Armenia would be able to take the land with relative ease.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Will a conflict have any effect on Iran's aid to Nackchivan? Iranian help is sustaining them, without which Armenia would be able to take the land with relative ease.

Turkey's 9 km border with Nakhichevan will prevent any liberation of Nakhichevan in the near future.

[samvel1982]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=171585

[samvel1982]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Interesting facts of Armenian military parade in Khankendi – PHOTOSESSION
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PHOTOSESSION



[ 14 May 2012 18:08 ]
The civilians participated in the parade instead of military servicemen and military equipments shown during the event were brought from Armenia

Baku – APA. Armenian newspapers and other sources bring the reports on Armenian military parade held in Khankendi on May 9 to light disclosing the parade show. According to those sources, the separatist regime faced with personnel problems while organizing the so-called parade and involved the demobilized civilians paying first $450 and then $380 to them. But some people were not paid and when they protested it the regime promised to solve the problem soon.

The photos showed that young civilians participated in the parade instead of the servicemen. The shirts worn under the uniforms and shoes unmasked them.

According to the last statistics given by the Armenians, more than one million people left Armenia in the past 4-5 years creating human resources problem for the army. Armenian leadership can not complete ordinary military unit and another serious problem for them is related to Nagorno Karabakh. There are no more civilians in Nagorno Karabakh and just military servicemen could be seen everywhere. The separatist regime claimed that military equipments and armaments demonstrated in the parade belonged to them. But outside authors and other Armenian sources said this report was wrong. UAZ, S-125 missile, KRUG missiles, Mercedes ML, Nissan Patrol, KamAZ, D-30, antiaircraft missile system, Mi 8 helicopters were brought from Armenia and then used in the parade.

The military equipments, vehicles and arms demonstrated in Yerevan parade on September 21, 2011 then were brought to Nagorno Karabakh and used in Khankendi parade on May 9, 2012. They made same cosmetic changes on vehicles and then demonstrated it.

13 helicopters were brought from Armenia, but 10 of them were demonstrated in the parade. Three others were out of order probably.

The white car carried the “general” in Khankendi parade was used by Armenian defense minister Seyran Ohanyan on September 21, 2011 when he reviewed troops in Yerevan.

Former militant Jirayr Safliyan, who takes opposite position against Sargsyan and leaders of separatist regime now, refused to participate in this parade because of above-mentioned issues. He said all Armenian army is protecting the current regime, but not the country and people. According to him, the Armenian defense ministry has no exact program and in case of attack, Armenian army can rely only on Russia and it is an intellectual servitude. Safliyan said it was delusion to speak about the combat readiness of the army.

The Armenia’s measures to find a way out give boomerang effect and work against itself.

apa.az

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Repost
Hhumner tshnamu kaikeri vra tsankalie nshel oktagortselov # nshan. Petkchi bartsratsnel nrants reiting hayeri hashvin

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The military parade in Stephanakert, Artcakh (Armenia) May 9, 2012