Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

[Vrej1915]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Курдская карта Ильхама Алиева

Что будут делать курдские партизаны в Турции после того, как окончательно сложат оружие и покинут пределы Турции? Этот вопрос преследует наблюдателей с того момента, как Оджалан сделал свое обращение к пешмерга Турецкого Курдистана. Кроме того, до сих пор актуален вопрос о возможных действиях тех курдских партизан, которые по каким – то причинам откажутся зарывать топор войны, но оставаться в Турции при этом тоже не смогут. Где в такой ситуации курдские партизаны могут применить свои боевые навыки и выразить внутреннюю пассионарность? Ряд экспертов по этому поводу высказали осторожную версию – предположение: курдскими партизанами из Турции может заинтересоваться Азербайджан, который не замедлит использовать боевой и политический опыт пешмерга в рамках своих действий против Армении и Нагорного Карабаха. По мнению экспертов, если знать фактологию вопроса, эта версия не покажется столь экзотичной, как кажется в первый раз. Что по этому поводу думают в экспертном сообществе самой Армении?

По этом поводу со «Спектром» беседовали политолог Левон МЕЛИК – ШАХНАЗАРЯН и востоковед Рубен САФРАСТЯН

Левон Мелик – Шахназарян, армянский историк и политолог, автор книги «Мифы о Карабахском конфликте»:

Как известно, Оджалан в конце марта этого года призвал партизан РПК сложить оружие и покинуть территорию Турции. То, что это говорил Оджалан, сомнений не вызывает, поскольку эти слова были переданы адвокатом лидера РПК, который неоднократно посещал Апо в тюрьме Имралы. Адвокат Оджалана еще ни разу не был замечен в каких-либо подлогах. Другое дело, что сами курды из РПК относятся к заявлению своего лидера с достаточным скептицизмом. Они считают, что призыв сложить оружие Оджалан сделал под сильнейшим давлением. Более того, за годы пребывания Оджалана в тюрьме, Рабочая партия Курдистана сильно изменилась. В боевой организации РПК появились новые молодые авторитеты, которые предпочитают действовать автономно. Самый известный среди них – Мурад Карайылан, лидер Союза курдских сообществ. Среди курдов Карайылан известен как человек, который предпочитает действовать по своему усмотрению. Поэтому я не думаю, что заявление Оджалана приведет к тому, что все курдские партизаны поголовно сложат оружие и уйдут из Турции куда-нибудь в дикие горы или степи.

- А может ли какая – то часть вооруженных курдов передислоцироваться на Южный Кавказ, например, ближе к Карабаху, и попытаться выразить свои исторические права на эти земли?

- Эта версия появилась вскоре после призыва Оджалана о разоружении и начале переговоров с турками. Те, кто ее выдвигает, говорят, что официальный Баку будет использовать курдов как ударную силу очередной масштабной агрессии против одного из армянских государств Южного Кавказа или обоих вместе. Лично я уверен в том, что курды как воины никуда не годятся. Максимум, курды могут быть хорошими налетчиками. Исторически так сложилось, что курдские отряды «успешно» действуют только во время стремительных набегов. Они нападают, устраивают погром и исчезают. Так они, в частности, действовали на армянских землях: устраивали набеги на мирную деревню, вырезали жителей, грабили дома, после чего мчались обратно в горы. Исходя из этого, курдские отряды могут быть использованы разве что для каких-то точечных провокаций на границах Азербайджана с армянскими государствами. Максимум, только для этого. В условиях масштабных боевых действий курдские отряды будут всего лишь пушечным мясом.

- Но, тем не менее, курдский фактор в Азербайджане есть. Или он не столь серьезен?

- Этот фактор очень серьезен. Азербайджанский курдский фактор связан с тем, что официальный Баку, начиная с 1993 года, переселяет к себе курдов. Большая часть курдов – переселенцев – из Турции, а остальные – из Ирака и Ирана. Впервые об этом факторе заговорили в 1993 году, а его апогей пришелся на 2007 – 2008 годы. В начале нулевых годов численность курдского населения Азербайджана уже составляла около 250 тысяч человек.

- А почему Баку переселял в Азербайджан ближневосточных курдов?

- Курдское переселение в Азербайджан было вызвано не военными причинами, а чисто внутриполитическими. Приезжие курды должны были составить социальную базу правящего клана Алиевых, которые по происхождению являются курдами. Не только покойный Гейдар Алиев и его сын Ильхам являются курдами по крови. Почти все высшие чиновники из алиевского «ближнего круга» - это этнические курды.

- То есть, политика Азербайджана сейчас имеет отчетливый курдский облик?



-Азербайджан сегодня практически полностью контролируется курдами. И хотя большинство курдов мимикрирует под тюрок, тем не менее, достоверно известно об этническом происхождении многих руководителей Азербайджана. Так, курдское происхождение Ильхама Алиева ни для кого не является секретом. Этническими курдами являются руководитель администрации президента АР Рамиз Мехтиев (на фото) и начальник личной охраны папы, а теперь и сына Алиевых Бейляр Эйюбов. Мехтиева и Эйюбова в Азербайджана за глаза именуют «всесильными».

Гендиректор Государственной нефтяной компании Азербайджана Ровнаг Абдуллаев, мэр Баку Гаджибала Абуталыбов и руководитель ЗАО «Азербайджанское телерадиовещание» Ариф Алышанов – тоже курды. Нахиджеванской автономией руководит курд Васиф Талыбов, всей строительной индустрией Нахиджеванской области - курд Эмиль Юджар.



Шеф МЧС Азербайджана - курд Камалетдин Гейдаров



Хозяин крупнейшего в АР многопрофильного концерна «Азерсун» - курд Абдулбари Гезал

Есть сведения, что Гейдаров и Гезал финансово поддерживают Рабочую партию Курдистана, ведут прямые телефонные переговоры с лидерами РПК. По крайней мере, такие сведения о них ходили лет пять назад. Столь сильное курдское присутствие в политической вертикали Азербайджана, как и переселение курдов из стран Ближнего Востока, служат одной цели – созданию в Азербайджане курдской социальной базы, на которую бы опирался крайне непопулярный в республике правящий курдский клан Алиевых. В этом свете стоит ожидать того, что переселение курдов в Азербайджан в ближайшее время будет продолжаться.

Курдский фактор в Азербайджане настолько серьезен, что порой непонятно, какая это республика, тюркская или курдская. Влияние курдов сейчас растет не только в Нахиджеване, но и Шамхорском, Дашкесанском, Казахском, Кедабекском, а также в Шаумянском районе Карабаха. Как я уже сказал, с течением времени курдское присутствие в Азербайджане, судя по всему, будет возрастать, но это присутствие не будет военным. Ильхаму Алиеву не нужна война. Ему нужно укрепить собственную власть и силы правящей династии. В 2017 году его сыну Гейдару исполнится 20 лет. Судя по всему, именно юный Гейдар Ильхамович будет кронпринцем Азербайджана. Самому Ильхаму Алиеву в октябре 2017 будет 56 лет. Для политика такой возраст – самый расцвет сил.





Рубен Сафрастян, директор Института востоковедения Национальной академии наук Республики Армения

-Ильхам Алиев – этнический курд. Может ли он попробовать разыграть курдскую карту против Армении?

-Информация, которой я располагаю, не дает сделать глубокий анализ возможного участия Азербайджана в курдском вопросе. Но упор на другую составляющую позволяет сделать какие – то выводы. Составляющая, о которой я говорю, это курдское происхождение Гейдара и Ильхама Алиевых. Кроме того, курд Гейдар Алиев с 1942 года год был кадровым офицером советской госбезопасности. Есть подтвержденные сведения, что его готовили именно как специалиста по курдскому вопросу. Судя по всему, Алиев оправдал надежды своих наставников. В конца пятидесятых по семидесятые годы прошлого века будущий президент Азербайджана был куратором курдской проблемы в Иране и Турции по линии КГБ СССР. Как указывают многие источники, в том числе, публикации азербайджанских оппозиционеров, именно былые связи с курдами Ближнего Востока позволили Алиеву – старшему стать в 1993 году президентом Азербайджанской республики. Так как Гейдар Алиев очень дорожил этими связями, то он вполне мог их потом «передоверить» своему наследнику Ильхаму. В любом случае, это обстоятельство надо иметь в виду.

- А какие могут быть возможные сценарии действий «курдской стратегии» Баку?

- На нынешнем этапе карабахского кризиса у Баку остается все меньше и меньше возможностей на оказание какого – либо давления по этому вопросу. Исходя из этого, нельзя исключать того, что официальный Баку когда – нибудь попытается использовать курдскую карту как один из инструментов лоббирования своих интересов по вопросу Нагорного Карабаха. Насколько могут быть серьезны намерения Азербайджана в этом направлении, судить пока рано, но в этом направлении нужно проявлять серьезную бдительность. Если вдруг по этому направлению появятся какие –то факты, то эти факты нужно быстро анализировать, чтобы понять глубинные цели и направления действий Азербайджана в одном из самых сложных и взрывоопасных вопросах Ближнего Востока – курдском вопросе.

Беседовал Орхан ИСКАНДЕРЗОДА
sp-analytic.ru

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Iran Considers “Annexing” Azerbaijan
April 11, 2013 - 12:28pm, by Giorgi Lomsadze Tamada Tales Armenia Azerbaijan Iran EurasiaNet's Weekly Digest
A group of Iranian lawmakers has begun drafting a bill on reattaching Azerbaijan to Iran by updating the terms and conditions of a 19th century treaty that ceded part of modern-day Azerbaijan and most of Armenia to Russian control.

The 1828 Turkmenchay Treaty ended the last war between Russia and Persia and paved the way for St. Petersburg to establish suzerainty over the South Caucasus. (Tehran already had given up its claims on Georgia in the 1813 Treaty of Gulistan.)

But the Iranians now argue that there was a critical detail in the fine print.

The treaty, they say, was valid only for 100 years and, therefore, the lawmakers’ logic goes,“re-annexing” Azerbaijan, Iran's northern next-door neighbor, is in order, Iran's government-run FARS news agency reported. Cities "lost" to the Russian Empire were supposed to be returned to Tehran just like "the British-Chinese deal over Hong Kong," the agency claimed.

Politicians in Baku were quick to counter that it is actually Iran that needs to hand over a chunk of its territory to Azerbaijan -- specifically, the northwestern border areas whose primarily ethnic Azeri residents make up about a quarter of Iran's population of roughly 74.8 million.

"Persians have always been in our bondage," asserted ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party Executive Secretary Siyavush Novruzov, APA news agency reported.

The hostility between Tehran and Baku has been on a low simmer for years, though usually kept on the back burner. Despite periodic attempts at top-level diplomacy, claims to each other's territory, rivalry over Caspian Sea energy resources and alliances with each other’s arch-enemies (Israel and Armenia, respectively) keep the suspicions steadily bubbling.

In March, a group of Azeri Iranians who back secession and possible unification with Azerbaijan gathered in Baku; Tehran responded with a diplomatic note and then dusted off the Turkmenchay Treaty.

Its review, however, does not appear to apply to Iranian ally Armenia, also mentioned in the Turkmenchay Treaty.

In the South Caucasus, where virtually everyone has territorial claims -- stated or muted -- against everyone else, any look back at history can be a highly subjective and perilous exercise.

Both Russia and Iran consider themselves to be the liberators of the Caucasus, while the Caucasus peoples mostly see the two as invaders. So far, none of the countries concerned has learned that such conflicts are better left in the past. It's unlikely that the fight over the Turkmenchay Treaty will prove any different.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66812

[Vrej1915]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

15 February 2013

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21459091?print=true

Azeri writer Akram Aylisli hounded for 'pro-Armenian' book
By Damien McGuinness
BBC News, Tbilisi

His books have been publicly burnt. He has been stripped of his national literary awards. And a high-ranking Azeri politician has offered $13,000 (£8,400) as a bounty for anyone who will cut off his ear.
But 75-year-old Akram Aylisli, one of Azerbaijan's most eminent authors, does not regret having written his short novel Stone Dreams.
The book has shocked many Azeris. But could it also prove the first tentative step towards peace with the country's longstanding enemy Armenia?
"I knew what I was writing. They say I offended the nation. But I think quite the opposite: I think I have raised my nation up," he told the BBC by phone.
"I could predict they would be unhappy. But I could never have predicted such horrors, such as calls for a writer to be killed, or his book to be burnt. It is very sad that our nation is humiliating itself in this way. A country that can burn books will not be respected by the rest of the world."
The book describes Azerbaijan's conflict with neighbouring Armenia through the 20th Century. But it details the massacres of Armenians by Azeris, portraying the tragedy of war from Armenia's perspective.
Scars of conflict
Azerbaijan is still traumatised by losing both the war in the 1990s and almost 20% of its territory - the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas. So depicting Azeris as perpetrators is shocking enough. To entirely leave out accounts of Azeri suffering is for many unforgiveable.
After the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a brutal war in which both sides suffered enormously, with up to 30,000 people killed and a million forced to flee their homes.
Today, despite a tenuous ceasefire, the two countries are still locked in conflict, with dozens killed every year.
But even some of the book's critics, such as Azeri opposition activist Murad Gassanly, condemn the persecution of its author.
"With the exception of ultra-liberal circles, very few people actually liked the book or its message," he explained.
"(But) the book burnings, street protests and calls for violence against the author were orchestrated primarily by pro-government circles.
"There is no freedom of assembly in Azerbaijan - it is impossible to gather and collectively read books, let alone burn them! The fact that these protests were allowed, protected by police and then shown on national state TV suggests that they were orchestrated from the top."
Azeri government officials could not be reached for comment.
National vitriol
President Ilham Aliyev himself signed the decree stripping Aylisli of his national awards and monthly literary stipend.
Ruling party parliamentarians demanded he leave the country or that his DNA be tested to see if he was really Azeri, and not in fact Armenian. And high-ranking government officials called him a traitor, saying "public hatred" was the correct response. Aylisli's wife and son both lost their jobs in state-controlled institutions.
The calls for violence against Aylisli - echoing Iran's notorious fatwa against British author Salman Rushdie - have sparked strong condemnation from abroad.
Suddenly aware of the harmful effect a state-sanctioned bounty against a writer could have on Azerbaijan's international image, on Wednesday, after a warning from the government, the head of the Modern Musavat party retracted his call for Aylisli's ear to be cut off.
Many analysts believe the vitriol against the author was an attempt by the authorities to divert attention from a wave of anti-government protests, which had swept the country in January.
There are signs that increasing numbers of Azeris are dissatisfied with the growing disparity between rich and poor under President Aliyev, who faces an election in October. And members of his government are accused of corruption.
"It's not unusual for the government to find a common enemy and unite around it," said Giorgi Gogia from Human Rights Watch. "And it's not the first time that freedom of information and free speech are under attack."
At least five journalists critical of Azerbaijan's government are currently behind bars, on what human rights activists describe as trumped-up charges.
And in January two well-respected opposition politicians, one of whom intends to run in October's presidential elections, were arrested, accused of organising anti-government protests. They are being held in pre-trial detention, which in Azerbaijan can last more than a year. If found guilty, they could face years in prison.
Distorted history
Stifling free speech not only quashes political dissent. The fear is that it could also be harming Azerbaijan's chance of ever making peace with Armenia.
"This book tackles the issue which needs to be discussed in society: looking at the past," says Mr Gogia, who believes Aylisli was extremely brave by being the first high-profile Azeri author to show sympathy towards victims from the other side.
"Freedom of speech applies not only to those ideas that are favourable. But even more so to those that shock and offend."
For decades the historical narrative in both Azerbaijan and Armenia has failed to focus on the tragedies suffered by the other side.
"Peace can only be achieved by kindness, not with anger. With anger you can never solve this issue," said Aylisli.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

12 April 2013

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22124075?print=true

US chides Azerbaijan over crackdown on free speech


The US government has criticised Azerbaijan for acting against a Western-funded pro-democracy project called the Free Thought University.
US Ambassador Richard Morningstar met the pro-democracy activists and said he was "troubled by the government's reaction to protests this year".
The chief prosecutor linked the project to a youth movement called N!DA, seven of whose members have been arrested.
The US ambassador condemned the arrest and interrogation of young activists.
"I was particularly disappointed to hear that authorities closed Free Thought University's office just last night," he said, adding that as "a friend of Azerbaijan" he wanted to see "government engagement with citizens, especially its young citizens, to address their legitimate concerns".
The chief prosecutor's office denied that the university had been closed, but said its officers had seized documents from the project.
The university's founders insist that it has "no affiliation with any other organisation".
Seven N!DA activists are being held on charges of possession of drugs and firearms, which can incur a penalty of five to eight years' imprisonment.
Local television broadcast confessional videos of the accused, who said they had wanted to "cause trouble" and throw petrol bombs at the police.
There have been several unusually big street protests in Azerbaijan this year - an election year for President Ilham Aliyev. Human rights groups have accused his government of stifling dissent and harassing journalists.
Crowds in the capital Baku twice protested against a rise in non-combat deaths in the army. They were dispersed by police using baton charges and water cannon.
Senior members of the ruling party have sharply criticised youth activists who organise on social networking sites, calling them "radical" and "wayward".

[TomServo]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Now the Azerbaijani journalist Emin Milli is being targeted by the Aliyev regime for giving an interview to Agos:

Here is the interview (Turkish): http://agos.com.tr/haber.php?seo=aze...i&haberid=4900

Here is his post on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/emin.milli/...27450267350813

OMG, in the comments section an Azeri says that Ilham Aliyev's grandmother was Armenian (claiming to have KGB documents to back it up) and that the chief officer of Azerbaijan's army has an Armenian cousin.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Ադրբեջանում նոր պայթյունավտանգ կետ կարող է ի հայտ գալ


Ապրիլ 21, 2013
Ադրբեջանի եւս մեկ շրջան կարող է քաղաքական բողոքի էպիկենտրոն դառնալ` ընդդեմ կենտրոնական իշխանության:

Սոցիալական ցանցերում տեղեկատվություն է տարածվել պաշտոնյաների հերթական կամայականությունների մասին: Հայտնի է դարձել, որ Նավթալանի շրջանի ղեկավար Նաթիգ Ասլանովի վարքագիծը լարվածություն է առաջացրել շրջանում: Շրջանի ղեկավարը իր ժամանակի հիմնական մասնանցկացնում է զվարճանքի վայրերում, նրա օգնականն էլ «փայաբաժին» է հավաքում շրջանի առեւտարային եւ զբոսաշրջային օբյեկտներից, իսկ առկա սոցիալ-տնտեսական խնդիրները նրանց չեն հետաքրքրում: Նրանք, ովքեր հրաժարվում են «սմսականների» վճարումից, ենթարկվում են սպառնալիքների:

Նրա վարքագծի դեմ է հանդես եկել նախկին պատգամավոր, ներկույումս ընդդիմադիր հայացքներ ունեցող Գյուլթեքին Հաջիբեյլին, որի բիզնես էլ խլել էր Ասլանովը: Նախկին պատագամավորը, օգտագործելով բնակիչների դժգոհությունը, փորձում է ճակատ ստեղծել նրա դեմ: Բնակիչները հայտնում են, որ Նավթալանը կարող է նոր պայթյունավտանգ կետ լինել, քանի որ լարվածությունը հասել է գագաթնակետին:

[Vahram]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Azerbaijan Fails to Stabilize Oil Production

http://azerireport.com/index.php?opt...k=view&id=3945

At this pace with the inability to fund grandiose projects to fake progress. With heat from all Caspian states, in addition to having a heated exchanges with Iran. With BP's new found love and partnership with Russian oil Giant that has taken the place of Exxon. The political, social, economic and military issues are going to come to head in the next few years. With another presidential election with one candidate, and less and less support not just from the West, but a drawdown slated for 2014 making it's position and value even less then now. Time is ticking!

[Vahram]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Oh! I feel so Alive

Come on Bro just one more term please!...ROTFLMAO

[Mher]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Azerbaijan. What’s That??

The first time I encountered the word “Azerbaijan,” I was reading a news report about Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2006*. Come to think of it — Russia’s invasion is probably the only reason I knew about the countries in the Caucasus region before this trip. Otherwise I’d probably be in the category of most Americans. “Azerbaijan. That’s actually a place?” a friend of mine wrote on facebook recently.

Geography bragging rights aside, I couldn’t tell you anything about the country itself before arriving. I had no idea what we’d find there. Azerbaijan was just the place where we’d go to collect central Asian visas and catch a ferry across the Caspian. So imagine my surprise when I arrived in Baku, the country’s capital. The place looks like a cross between Las Vegas and Disneyland.

Even arriving in the rain it looked impressive. Nicknamed to the “Dubai of the Caspian,” Baku is a sprawling mass of neo-futuristic architecture and faux French facades that pack in half of the country’s population of 8 million. In the city’s center, everything looks brand new. There are towers designed to look like flames (complete with moving LED lights at night), Parisian cobbled stone shopping streets, and parks with choreographed fountains. There are luxury shops like Burberry and Louis Vitton, and Mazaratti sports cars that race recklessly between stop lights. It’s all thanks to oil money. Azerbaijan was the world’s fastest growing economy between 2005 and 2008, growing at 24% a year, and Baku is the image the country wants to show the world. There’s even plans to build the world’s largest skyscraper.

But as with many countries and oil, Azerbaijan’s petro wealth comes with a curse: an autocratic government.

“Ughhh not again!”

The motorcades in Baku frequently disrupt traffic, as senior government officials are known to shut down streets any time they cross town, which can happen a few times a day. We were already getting tired of it. It seemed more a show of government power than a legitimate safety measure.

Whoosh!!

One. Two. Three. Four black cars went zipping past, pushing 100mph. The police cars that followed were sparkling white BMW sports cars that could have been mistaken for a movie star’s if they didn’t have police decals painted on them.

The motorcade was just the beginning of the show though. The main act commenced once we arrived at our friend Julia’s apartment. From her balcony, we watched a procession of about 40 tanks roll slowly down Baku’s main boulevard, tearing up the smoothed asphalt below. Being the Azeri military’s 95th anniversary, the government decided to throw a parade. It was a good excuse to show off the $1 billion dollars in arms they’d just purchased from the Russians two weeks before. Some new howitzers obtained in the deal were included in the lineup, and the parade in Baku was a short detour en route to the Armenian border, where sporadic fighting was occurring under a broken cease fire. We found it best not to mention “Armenia” too much during our time in Azerbaijan. It usually generated sharp stares.

“Aaah. Nothing like tanks and pancakes to start off the morning!” I smiled at Julia. The Italian expat had invited us and a bunch of other courchsurfers to her place to watch the parade and have brunch. Like most meals in Azerbaijan, it consisted mostly of bread.

Azerbaijanis have this weird thing where they practically worship bread, to the point where it’s forbidden to throw it out. No joke – I almost tossed out a half-eaten loaf in the park when a man came rushing up to stop my hand from releasing it into the trash can. “No no no!” Instead, he insisted I leave on the bench. Later, I started noticing bags with rotting bread hanging off dumpsters and door handles all over the city. There are apparently Islamic traditions associated with this, but I think there’s a more practical reason to worship bread in Azerbaijan: It’s just about the only affordable food item in the country.

The sticker shock of Baku was intense, especially coming off the heels of Vietnam. Much of the country – especially Baku — is simply not geared towards young budget travelers. It is full of expensive hotels and chic restaurants and swanky bars for businessmen who don’t mind shelling out the $360 it cost each of us to obtain a visa and letter of invitation to enter the country.

The prices were inhibiting, making us feel like we were stuck in a place that was pretty to look at but that we couldn’t be a part of. The point was underscored after the parade when our expat collective visited the city’s new cultural center, named after the former president Heydar Aliyev, whose portraits adorn every street corner and office, chairman Mao style.

“No entry.” The guard said sternly. The center was closed for the military holiday.

Our group of Expats at the Heydar Aliyev Cultural Center

Even so, the building was stunning to behold, constructed with custom-molded fiberglass panels that gave it unnatural curvatures, apparently designed to resemble Heydar Aliev’s signature from above. The government had dropped about 200 million to build the architectural centerpiece.

“But there’s nowhere to chill” Morgan pointed out.

He was right. After being denied entry, we tried to salvage our trip by looking for benches or cafes or anything remotely inviting to hang out around outside the building. There was nothing, not even a shaded tree. The 200 million had not been invested to make this a public place, but a show piece, an impressive trophy to greet motorists entering the city from the international airport.

“Well, what do you want to do now?” I asked.

I would be asking that question a lot over our two weeks in Baku.

http://networkedblogs.com/MVMNl

[Mher]

Re: Azerbaijan - Internal Political Affairs

Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.
The New York Times

In March 2010, Ibrahim Ibrahimov was on the three-hour Azerbaijan Airlines flight from Dubai to Baku when he had a vision. “I wanted to build a city, but I didn’t know how,” Ibrahimov recalled. “I closed my eyes, and I began to imagine this project.” Ibrahimov, one of the richest men in Azerbaijan, is 54 and has a round, leathery face with millions of tiny creases kneaded in his brow and the spaces beneath his eyes. He walks the way generals walk when they arrive in countries that they have recently occupied. In the middle of his reverie, Ibrahimov summoned the flight attendant. “I asked for some paper, but there wasn’t any. So I grabbed this shirt in my bag that I hadn’t tried on. I took the tissue paper out, and in 20 minutes I drew the whole thing.”

Once he arrived in Baku, Ibrahimov went straight to his architects and said, “Draw this exactly the way I did.” Avesta Concern, the company that governs his various business interests, subsequently commissioned the blueprints for Ibrahimov’s vision. The result will be a sprawling, lobster-shaped development called Khazar Islands — an archipelago of 55 artificial islands in the Caspian Sea with thousands of apartments, at least eight hotels, a Formula One racetrack, a yacht club, an airport and the tallest building on earth, Azerbaijan Tower, which will rise 3,445 feet.

When the whole project is complete, according to Avesta, 800,000 people will live at Khazar Islands, and there will be hotel rooms for another 200,000, totaling nearly half the population of Baku. It will cost about $100 billion, which is more than the gross domestic product of most countries, including Azerbaijan. “It will cost $3 billion just to build Azerbaijan Tower,” Ibrahimov said. “Some people may object. I don’t care. I will build it alone. I work with my feelings.”

It’s not surprising that Ibrahimov, who plans to live in the penthouse of Azerbaijan Tower, had his epiphany on a flight from Dubai. The vision behind Khazar Islands, after all, is not a vision so much as a simulacrum of a vision. The fake islands, the thousands of palm trees and the glass and steel towers — many of which resemble Dubai’s sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel — are all emblems of the modern Persian Gulf petro-dictatorship. And two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union — its final custodian during 23 centuries of near-constant occupation — Azerbaijan could be accused of having similar ambitions. The country, which is about the size of South Carolina, has 9.2 million people and is cut off from any oceans. It builds nothing that the rest of the world wants and has no internationally recognized universities. It does, however, have oil.

In 2006, Azerbaijan started pumping crude from its oil field under the Caspian Sea through the new Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Now, with the help of BP and other foreign energy companies, one million barrels of oil course through the pipeline daily, ending at a Turkish port on the northeastern corner of the Mediterranean Sea. This makes Azerbaijan a legitimate energy power (the world’s leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia, produces 11 million barrels every day) with a great deal of potential. If the proposed Nabucco pipeline, running from Turkey to Austria, is built, Azerbaijan would become a conduit for gas reserves, linking Central Asia to Europe. This could strip Russia, which sells the European Union more than a third of the gas it consumes, of one of its most potent foreign-policy levers. It could also generate billions of dollars every year for Azerbaijan, which between 2006 and 2008 had the world’s fastest-growing economy, at an average pace of 28 percent annually.

Sitting on a couch in the temporary headquarters at the construction site of his future city, Ibrahimov mulled the possibilities. The headquarters, which looks like a very modern log cabin, features a big conference table, flat-screen televisions, a bar, pretty assistants and a dining table that is always set. There is a gargantuan portrait of the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, hanging from a wall, next to the bar. Spread out on the conference table were blueprints for Khazar Islands, which looked like battle plans. Men in leather jackets picked from crystal bowls filled with nuts and dried fruit and caramels in shiny wrappers.

Ibrahimov had slept five hours, he said, but was not tired. He started the day with an hourlong run, followed by a dip in the Caspian Sea, followed by a burst of phone calls over breakfast, followed by meetings with some people from the foreign ministry, then the Turks, then his engineers and architects. Now, while sipping tea, Ibrahimov’s attention was back on Khazar Islands, which he insisted was not modeled after Dubai. “Dubai is a desert,” he said. “The Arabs built an illusion of a country. The Palm” — a faux-island development in Dubai — “is not right. The water smells. Also, they built very deep in the sea. That’s dangerous. The Palm is beautiful to look at, but it’s not good to live in.”

Ibrahimov paused and took a sip of tea. The tiny creases of his face bunched up under his eyes, which looked off into the distance, out the tiny window of the faux log cabin, toward the construction site. He said that he was put off by the inorganic feel of Dubai, the sense that it was so . . . ephemeral. “Everything,” he said dismissively, “is artificial.”

Few countries have come as far in mastering the art of geopolitics as Azerbaijan. After being occupied by Cyrus the Great, Alexander the Great, the Seljuks, the Mongols, the Persians, the Russians, the Ottomans and, finally, the Soviets, Azerbaijan, which achieved its independence in 1991, has cultivated relationships with the United States and many European countries and deepened relations with Russia and key Central Asian “stans.” These days, Azerbaijan, which is overwhelmingly Muslim, buys advanced weapons systems from Israel in return for oil. A new member of the United Nations Security Council, the country sided with the United States against Russia last year on a resolution condemning Syria. “This is a very small country on a very significant piece of real estate,” says Matthew Bryza, the former U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan. “Azerbaijan pursues a very realpolitik policy.”

In the old days, they came for geography (Azerbaijan is perched on the Caspian). About a century ago, they started coming for oil. Then, after the Soviet Union collapsed, the energy sector became a source of enormous wealth. Now Azerbaijan is trying to take advantage of that wealth. As such, Avesta’s sales and marketing team recently produced a gleaming 101-page coffee-table book in a gilded box promoting Khazar Islands. It features photographs of men in Italian suits and women with pouty faces; everyone drinks wine and is on a cigarette boat or in a Mercedes convertible. There’s also a video that shows computer renderings of Khazar Islands in the not-too-distant future. The video lasts 5 minutes 6 seconds and includes an image of a make-believe skyline at night and another of Ibrahimov on a cellphone in front of a private jet, even though, he conceded, he doesn’t own one.

Two things about the video are striking. First, there isn’t any information about asking prices, square footage, move-in dates or why anyone would want to live in Baku. And then there’s the soundtrack, which is a synthesized blast of violins, harps, horns and snare drums that makes you feel as if you’re riding a stallion in the desert in the 1980s.

The day before my three-hour flight from Moscow to Baku last spring, Avesta’s sales and marketing director at the time, Kenan Guluzade, flew to the Russian capital to hand-deliver the book and DVD to me at a Starbucks. Guluzade said he had to be in Russia anyway, but he was also worried that, as a journalist, I might not get into Azerbaijan. Guluzade came with his assistant and his father, who sported an elegant, silk scarf and a tailored jacket. Guluzade spoke quickly, in English. “It’s really nice to feel attention to our construction project,” he said, and then he handed me a fancy shopping bag with the DVD and the book. His father sipped a latte. “The new Baku is stunning,” his father said. Then Guluzade said: “This is true. It’s amazing what is happening.”

When I arrived in Baku, the first of the Khazar Islands had already been plunked down, and the first few apartment buildings were going up. The entrance featured a menacing, falconlike archway. Boulevards and traffic circles had been paved, and there were long strips of palm trees — “Mr. Ibrahimov loves palm trees,” Nigar Huseynli, Ibrahimov’s assistant, said — and everywhere there seemed to be mounds of earth and retaining walls and the concrete outlines of future cineplexes and shopping malls. Amrahov Hasrat, who was the chief engineer at Khazar Islands, told me that 200 trucks brought in rocks every day from a bluff eight miles away. “We are destroying the mountain,” Hasrat said, pointing off into the distance in the direction of a hill, “and taking the rocks back to the sea to build the artificial islands.”

In some ways, though, reality is already taking shape. When Guluzade met me in Starbucks, 96 apartments had been sold. Two days later, that figure inched up to 102. Now, it’s 136. The asking prices run from about $280 to $460 per square foot, meaning a typical 1,076-sqare-foot apartment at Khazar Islands starts around $300,000. Ibrahimov expects geometric growth after 2015, when they’re scheduled to break ground on Azerbaijan Tower.

Western financial analysts and real estate developers are understandably skeptical. For one thing, there’s President Ilham Aliyev’s regime, which opposes political competition and other reforms that would diversify its economy and spur the long-term growth needed for this kind of mega-project. There’s the fact that no one has ever tried anything this ambitious in Azerbaijan. Finally, this is a rough neighborhood. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous region within the country, raged between Azerbaijan and Armenia from 1988 to 1994 and has never really been resolved. Russia could invade Georgia, as it did in 2008. There’s the chance of an American or Israeli strike on Iran, Azerbaijan’s southern neighbor. Last month, riots raged for two days in Azerbaijan as people protested local corruption in Ismayilli.

Yet Ibrahimov, sitting behind the blueprints in his log cabin, remained extremely optimistic. Azerbaijan, with its new money and undeveloped coastline, offers “biznessmen” from the former Soviet Union — a group that might be defined as importers, exporters, government officials who dabble in the private sector, people who aspire to be Ibrahim Ibrahimov — an affordable nearby playground. As of late 2011, according to WealthInsight, a market research provider, there were nearly 160,000 so-called high-net-worth individuals in Russia alone, with a combined worth of nearly $1 trillion. Even Turkmenistan, the North Korea of the former Soviet Union, is building a luxury development, Avaza, which also has fake islands and reportedly will cost $5 billion and sit on the Caspian’s eastern flank.

It was crucial, Ibrahimov told me, to visualize what everything will look like in 2022, when Khazar Islands is supposed to be finished. He pointed outside the small window, to the sea. “That is where it will be,” he said, referring to Azerbaijan Tower. “In the water. Can you see it?”

Some in Baku already can. Indeed, the most crucial factor underpinning the project is that President Aliyev’s regime seems to want Khazar Islands built. Ilgar Mammadov, chairman of the pro-democracy Republicanist Alternative Movement, characterized Khazar Islands as an inexorable beast. The country’s international strategic monetary reserves are now more than $46 billion, Mammadov said, and in 10 years, as oil and gas revenue rise, they could be near $150 billion. “Azerbaijan has the capacity to build the tallest building,” Mammadov said, a hint of lamentation in his voice. “That’s not in doubt. We will create this big building, and then it will, by itself, by the very mere fact of its existence, bring cash. How will that work? Nobody knows.”

Ibrahimov was sitting in the back seat of a black Rolls-Royce as it tore across island No. 1 of his soon-to-be built archipelago. Nigar Huseynli, his 23-year-old assistant, was sitting up front in a black and white floral-print skirt, black tights and rectangular black sunglasses. She seemed to be vaguely worried, always. She wore a great deal of perfume that, she said, came from Italy. “When he’s in Azerbaijan,” Huseynli said, “Mr. Ibrahimov always drives in his black Rolls-Royce. In Dubai, he has a red one.”

Before I arrived in Baku, Huseynli tried to convey just how much power Ibrahimov wields in his country. But it wasn’t obvious until I landed at Heydar Aliyev International Airport and showed the passport-control officers a letter from Huseynli stating that I would be meeting with Ibrahimov. The letter included Ibrahimov’s name and signature at the bottom, and it seemed to frighten, shock and amaze all at once. A crowd of guards and customs agents gathered around and stared in silence.

Ibrahimov seems to be vaguely aware of the numinous glow that envelopes him. He is supremely concrete, focused on things like buildings, cars, hand-held devices, jeans or which country he’d like to be in right now, but in a manner that suggests he can have whichever of those things he desires most. As the Rolls sped past large knots of men in hard hats and jumpsuits, he sent text messages and juggled cellphones. His son called. Then the Qatari ambassador. Then someone who annoyed him. A television screen positioned three feet in front of the seat that Ibrahimov always sits in blared music videos, and some girl group was singing a two-minute riff called “Take Me Away.”

continued in next post