Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

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n 1918 Diana Agabeg Apcar, Armenia’s first female diplomat, wrote the following “…the Armenians on their part have also been guilty since 1878 onwards of two gigantic errors. They have trusted and hoped in “Christian Governments.” The denseness of the Armenian mind in this connection has been amazing. Armenians have been accredited with native shrewdness but certainly no people could have proved more astonishingly stupid than they have proved themselves on this particular point. The other gigantic error of which the Armenians have been guilty ofis that the nation as a whole did not support the Armenian revolutionaries.”

I don't agree with this last paragraph. It was precisely because of the "socialist fever" and the rush into the revolutionary mood we became Don Quixotic. Some revolutionaries were armed, while most of the population was unarmed, unprepared, unaware, and yet we are blaming "Armenian stupidity in not supporting the revolutionaries"? The stupidest thing we did was not adhere to the Armenakan plan, the plan of preparation and arming of the population, of developing a clear strategy, of consolidating Armenian power in Armenia proper instead of outlying cosmpolitan centers such as Constantinople, Tiflis, Moscow, etcwhich is ignored and not taught to the Armenian public for reason that would embarrass the current "traditional party" establishment beyond repair.

Russian policy toward Armenians was not consistent from 1828 to 1915 to say the least, and the only guarantee to buffer this fluctuation of the Bear's moods was stronger Armenian positioning versus the "revolutionary" gamble of blowing up banks with the hope of securing "Christendom"s sympathy and interference in Ottoman affairs in our favor.

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

In today's context, the same rule applies. Instead of infighting due to ignorance of history, geopolitics, ourselves, hopefully (what a loaded word) we can start thinking about making economic and intellectual gains. So we're winning the chess olympiads, eh? The proposal by economists to establish a "voch humqayin tntesutyun" is on the books since the 1970s, ignored by Demirjian and subsequent administrators. I seriously doubt that Oligarch, Russian or American "interference" has much control over the development of the highly profitable high-tech sector that already has some foundations in Armenia. No one seems to have "interfered" as of yet while all the important microchip and board manufacturers from US, Taiwain, Korea, etc, have contracted Armenian firms to be their R&D sector in the region, no one except that creature called Indifference.

As Peter I's conditions on Israeli Ori's proposals are of any lesson, no "empire" will invest in you if you're not willing to invest in yourself.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

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This subject may becoming off topic, but if we understand the whys by looking back in history we would be more in tune the course we are taking.

In any event the full article link

The only reason why Turkey refrained from attacking Armenia in 1993 was their concern as to Russia’s response. The only reason why Azerbaijan did not attack Armenia during the Russian-Georgian war of 2008 was because of their concern as to Russia’s response. Accordingly, one of the main reasons Armenia exists today and is not overrun by its hostile neighbors is not because Armenia’s adversaries are afraid of “Christian” Europe’s response – we all know how they responded when TurkeyattackedCyprus – but because they are afraid of Russia’s response.

http://times.am/?p=32715&l=ru

That is not true, there are many other reasons that Turkey or Azerbaijan have not attacked Armenia or Artsakh.
Also, Armenia needs to be fluid in this dangerous neighborhood and not static putting all eggs in one basket.

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Eddo, I can think of economic reasons, such as the possible disruption of oil production for Azerbaijan. What other reasons?

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

That is not true, there are many other reasons that Turkey or Azerbaijan have not attacked Armenia or Artsakh.

Azerbaijan was attacking Armenia proper, specifically Kapan. Presumably to link with Nakhichevan.
Turkey did not attack Armenia because it was not a party to the war.
It flirted with the idea of intervening, because it sensed a political/military vacuum.
This is where it was warned/threatened not to by Russia.

Also, Armenia needs to be fluid in this dangerous neighborhood and not static putting all eggs in one basket.

When you enter into an alliance, first rule is to build trust by becoming a reliable ally.
Second rule is expect, demand, pressure, argue what you expect as a partner of that alliance.
Look around and see how other members of different alliances behave, even much much stronger countries.
Look at UK, France or Germany do they flirt left right and centre?

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[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Eddo, I can think of economic reasons, such as the possible disruption of oil production for Azerbaijan. What other reasons?

Well for example Azerbaijan has alot to loose if not successful in taking NKR back, not only the rath of Armenians but also internal social unrest and political destruction. There are others...

Turkey is a NATO member and Armenia is not Cypress nor the Armenia during Karabakh war.....they invade they be facing hell in a insurgency war run by a professional military, this is not going to be like facing PKK which are bought and payed for by Kemalists.
Regardless if we have Russian support or not both Russia and Iran will not like this move and they know about Turkey's plans. There are more reasons...

Now maybe Azerbaijan is scared of Russia but if you guys think Turks fear Russians you don't know who the real Turks are.

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Interesting.

I for one have learned not to underestimate Turkish statesmanship or imperialist ambition. Turks are accomplished opportunists and know how to position themselves in geopolitics very professionally, and they have the Saud on their side and many muslims in the Russian federation as levers.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Interesting.

I for one have learned not to underestimate Turkish statesmanship or imperialist ambition. Turks are accomplished opportunists and know how to position themselves in geopolitics very professionally, and they have the Saud on their side and many muslims in the Russian federation as levers.

^^^this!

Also it would be wrong to assume That Turks interests is in line with Azerbaijan or that it includes Azeri ambitions or that they may see them as their true turkic brothers....lol

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

You never know what Azerbaijan will be to Turkey in the future, but currently they are pushing and fueling Turkism is Azerbaijan. The ambition so far is to expand their influence using the race card AND religion card. Only in 2011 they were "friends of Syria," and now they are funneling terrorist into Syria.

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

I don't agree with this last paragraph. It was precisely because of the "socialist fever" and the rush into the revolutionary mood we became Don Quixotic. Some revolutionaries were armed, while most of the population was unarmed, unprepared, unaware, and yet we are blaming "Armenian stupidity in not supporting the revolutionaries"? The stupidest thing we did was not adhere to the Armenakan plan, the plan of preparation and arming of the population, of developing a clear strategy, of consolidating Armenian power in Armenia proper instead of outlying cosmpolitan centers such as Constantinople, Tiflis, Moscow, etcwhich is ignored and not taught to the Armenian public for reason that would embarrass the current "traditional party" establishment beyond repair.

Russian policy toward Armenians was not consistent from 1828 to 1915 to say the least, and the only guarantee to buffer this fluctuation of the Bear's moods was stronger Armenian positioning versus the "revolutionary" gamble of blowing up banks with the hope of securing "Christendom"s sympathy and interference in Ottoman affairs in our favor.

I certainly agree with the first point she is highlighting, the fallacy of relying, trusting and hoping in "Christian Governments".

Second point could be subjective.
You have to remember the environment of the times.
Harsh and oppressive government, populations terrorised with previous local massacres in mind etc.

The social structure was a feudal, peasantry and aloof elite.
Everything had to be done covertly.

Covertly organise and recruit member in a relatively large geographic area with poor communications ( of the times).
Covert financing and smuggling of arms etc.
Loyal to the Government ( Armenian ) citizens etc.

As a matter of fact revolutions do not start with most of the population being armed, prepared, aware etc.

It is started with diehard idealist/visionary/revolutionary core.
Once they appear to be effective its following builds and enters the virtuous cycle and gain recruits.

If you have read Raffi’s "Khente" it portrays the structure and the mood of society of the time.

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