Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

[Vrej1915]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

TURKEY'S WAR WITHIN

August 20, 2015

"People are getting weapons, preparing for urban war"

The price of weapons in Diyarbakir has soared in recent days, a
Kalashnikov rifle costs $2,000

BY DAVID KENNER

DIYARBAKIR, Turkey -- There's no such thing as a quiet night in this
southeastern city anymore. On an average night, residents say, police
fire tear gas at Kurdish protesters and mark their chests with the red
laser dots of sniper rifles; youths respond with firecrackers and sound
bombs. On a bad night, residents go to sleep to the sounds of both
sides exchanging gunfire and military helicopters buzzing overhead.

But some residents of Diyarbakir, the unofficial capital of the
country's Kurdish heartland, fear that the worst is yet to come.

"People are getting weapons, preparing for urban war," said Brusk,
34, a prematurely gray-haired café owner in Diyarbakir. "They see
it as protection from Huda-Par [a Kurdish Sunni Islamist movement]
and other agents of the state."

The long-dormant conflict between Kurds and the Turkish state
has returned with a vengeance. According to a Turkish official,
39 Turkish police and soldiers have been killed in attacks by the
outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which fought a three-decade
insurgency against the state but had been holding a cease-fire until
the current spasm of violence, in the past month. Turkey, meanwhile,
has also detained more than 1,000 Kurdish activists and begun a
fierce air campaign against the PKK's hideouts both inside Turkey
and in northern Iraq, launching hundreds of air sorties that Turkish
security officials claim have killed 390 PKK militants and wounded
hundreds more.

The violence has flared up during a critical political moment for
Turkey. Negotiations to form a coalition government collapsed on
Monday, seemingly paving the way for an early election. The Justice
and Development Party, or AKP, from which President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan hails, failed for the first time since it came to power to
win a majority of seats in the June parliamentary election -- in a
new vote, it will aim to regain its majority and form a single-party
government. AKP officials have signaled that the snap election could
be held in November.

Those in Diyarbakir hostile to the government accuse Erdogan of
purposefully reigniting the Kurdish conflict as a cynical political
ploy. They, along with some analysts, believe that Turkey's harsh
crackdown is a political strategy to win points among nationalist
voters who despise any form of self-determination for the Kurdish
minority. They believe that Erdogan is purposefully polarizing the
electorate around the Kurdish issue -- telling voters, essentially,
that they're either with him or with the terrorists.

"Until this early election, it is good for Erdogan if more women and
soldiers die," said Brusk."Until this early election, it is good for
Erdogan if more women and soldiers die," said Brusk.

Whatever sparked the current wave of violence, however, risks
unleashing forces that no politician can control. Several Diyarbakir
residents described how people in the city were increasingly arming
themselves against what they see as out-of-control security forces and
a government that uses the jihadis of the Islamic State and al-Nusra
Front, an affiliate of al Qaeda, as a cudgel against the Kurds.

Imam Tascier, a parliamentary deputy for the pro-Kurdish Peoples'
Democratic Party, or HDP, from Diyarbakir, acknowledged citizens'
increased desire to arm themselves. Residents, he said, were driven
by the fear not only of the government's security forces, but also
of the shadowy jihadi groups that they accuse the state of controlling.

"That's why people say they want to get weapons -- because, they
say, we don't know who is the enemy," he said. "Now there are many
[enemies]. But the final one responsible is the state."

The price of weapons in Diyarbakir has soared in recent days, Brusk
says. A Glock handgun that cost roughly $1,000 last year now costs
$3,000, while a Kalashnikov rifle costs $2,000 (less than the handgun
because it is harder to conceal, and anyone caught with such a weapon
faces a lengthy jail sentence).

As the elections draw closer, there are signs that this incipient
crisis might indeed be working to Erdogan's political advantage. Two
polls this month found that, if new elections were held immediately,
the AKP would garner enough support to form a single-party government.

Both polls suggest that the AKP would gain votes at the expense of the
HDP -- a surprising result following the past two months of violence
in the country's majority Kurdish regions. But for AKP officials,
it provides intellectual ammunition for their election strategy in
potential early elections.

Muhammed Akar, the AKP chairman in Diyarbakir, blamed his party's loss
in the June elections on the decision of religiously conservative
Kurds to vote for the HDP. These voters, he told Foreign Policy,
were essentially looking for stability -- they feared an outbreak of
violence if the HDP did not pass the crucial 10-percent barrier for
winning seats in parliament.

"Now I'm thinking that the religious Kurds who voted for the HDP
regret their vote," Akar said. "Because things didn't get better when
the HDP passed this election barrier -- sadly, they became worse."

And the solution to the current chaos, as Akar sees it, is to hand
power back to his party. "If the AKP was in power alone, nobody could
behave in this way," he said. "Nobody would have the courage to fight
against the state like this."

But Akar and the AKP are going to have a fight on their hands as they
try to win back their parliamentary majority. Their gains in the
recent polls have been slim -- well within the surveys' margins of
error -- and a great deal can change in the three months before the
likely vote. Meanwhile, Erdogan's rivals are also marshaling their
resources for the coming campaign.

"We are still in election mode," said Tascier. "On [June] 7, the
people went to the ballot box to vote. On the 8th, Erdogan indicated
that there would be an election. So we're ready."

If the violence continues, however, nobody may win this political
struggle in Turkey. Tascier, a Kurdish activist for four decades,
still has a birdshot pellet lodged in his neck from when armed men
sprayed him and two friends with gunfire in Diyarbakir in June 1993.

He blames the gendarmerie intelligence unit known as JITEM, which was
notorious for conducting extrajudicial executions during the height
of the conflict with the Kurds in the 1990s, for the attack.

The incident is just one of many cautionary tales of how the surging
violence could just as easily fragment the country, rather than
unite it around any political party. During the wave of violence in
the 1990s, the conflict between the state and the PKK morphed into a
war that dragged in a bewildering array of state and criminal actors
operating above the law. JITEM operated as such a force, while the
interior minister hired an ultra-right-wing contract killer to do his
dirty work. On the other side of the conflict, the PKK turned to the
drug trade to finance itself, becoming entangled with international
criminal networks and spawning splinter groups that attacked tourist
destinations even as the PKK tried to adhere to a cease-fire.

The increasing weapons sales in Diyarbakir are one sign that the
renewed conflict already threatens to drag in new actors. But if the
conflict spirals out of control this time, residents and HDP officials
in Diyarbakir agree, it will be even bloodier than in the past. The
Kurds are now more organized than before and can call on support from
Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria that are vastly stronger than they
were in the 1990s

"The Kurds are not the same Kurds as in the 1990s," said Tascier.

"They are not afraid, and they will keep their calm until they can
keep it no longer.... Because people know that if there's a war,
it's going to be everywhere in Turkey."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/17/turkeys-war-within-kurds-election-erdogan-pkk/

[Vrej1915]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

Liberation of Western Armenia, above all justice or moral duty factors, is an existential problem for the survival of what is left of Eastern Armenia.
Without an access to the open sea by Trabizon, or minimal strategical depth, by liberating the upper streams of the Arax river (Passen valley/Garin water and stretegic citadel), that is the fresh water resources we need to survive.... talking of futur is just not serious .
Population is hugely important, but yet not enough to ensure survival of a state.
It is much harder to exterminate 10 million encirceled than 3, but yet very possible....,and even that stated 10 million is not possible. Todays borders with today's neigbors, and geopolitical situation just can not permit that.
It is just a very rosy image....
It is possible to host and prosper 10 million in Honk Kong or Singapoor, on less than 1000 sq2 may be, but not in enciceled, undefendable, half amputated Eastern Armenia.

How can one compare the parcel of Eastern Armenia left, with its 42.000 sq2 with a 10 million strong, and similar size Belgium, while they host EU's capital and are encircled by 500 million friends, while we are encircled by an ocean of 100 million turks, and have no access to any commercial road, no natural reserve, and even air access is dependent from our eternal enemy's wish.

Do not forget, turkish mortars can reach Yerevan's southern suburbs at will...

So liberation of Western Armenia is the only option, if we are to survive in Eastern Armenia.
It is a very hard, seemingly impossible task, but yet the ONLY option.

[Eddo211]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

The way to Western Armenia is through the East.......for now we should ignore these games and take out and destroy Azerbaijan military weapons.

[Armynia]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

Armenia and Artsakh combined Armenians have enough place for additional 10 million people.


It is always good to remember the western Armenia and Armenian genocide, but lets just take care of what is left and make it batter place for our people in the first place.



Aeschylus:

From a small seed a mighty trunk may grow.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

Do know your history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastatsi_Murad

[Artsakh]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

Dear members, what is all this bickering about what the Kurds have done in the past all about? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm not mistaking national hero Sebastaci Murad was an ethnic Kurd? Nevertheless, notwithstanding the role and atrocities committed by Kurds during the Armenian Genocide and well before that as well against the Armenian population of Western Armenia, I say that the struggle of the Kurds against the Turks today is our struggle. If Kurds win and manage to establish their own state, a fragmented Turkey is one that poses a diminished threat to Armenia's existence. If Turkey crushes the Kurds, then we have a powerful, intact Turkey to deal with, and that's going to make our job much more complicated. Indeed, sandwiched between Azerbaijan, you could say we're a sitting duck if it weren't for certain geopolitical and external factors that in effect serve as safeguards for Armenia's existence.

Don't get ahead of yourselves, but god willing if the Kurds do manage to break off and end up laying claims to Western Armenia, the fact of the matter is we're going to have better chances of getting them back from Kurds than the Turks. 2nd, my appetite isn't as big as some of yours, but I see Kars, Ardahan, Mount Ararat, and perhaps even a small outlet to the black see as a done deal in the event that there's a repeat of events in Turkey that we saw in Iraq and Syria. Moreover, these areas are not heavily inhabited so it would not be a headache. Just imagine that. We really don't need van and areas further south and west where millions of Kurds inhabit, at least not immediately. Don't forget we still have artsakh and the surrounding areas to develop and populate.

Now, we wait and see how things play out...

[Artsakh]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

PKK Declares Autonomous Region in Turkey’s Dersim Province

ERBIL (Rudaw.net)—The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has announced a democratic autonomous region in the Dersim province of Turkey, and established checkpoints on the main road in the province Tuesday.

A video released by the PKK purports to show the group’s fighters controlling the road and searching vehicles.

“We as guerrillas, under the right of self-defense for ourselves and our nation, declare democratic autonomy in Dersim,” said a fighter in the video.

In July, violence erupted once again between the PKK and the Turkish military, and both sides have announced different death tolls.

The PKK claimed Tuesday that in Hakkari its fighters killed 32 Turkish security forces and lost five of their own. The Turkish government announced only one Turkish soldier was killed and several others wounded.

The Diyarbakir governor’s office on Tuesday announced a curfew starting from 1:00am in response to the violence.

In related news, according to Turkish media, people in a demonstration in the mainly Kurdish Dogubeyazit district declared self-management.

“We declare our self-management,” said Muhsin Kula, who claimed to be part of the new government. “Our villages and cities have been turned into ruins. The latest Varto case is proof that humanity is dead.”

Varto is a town in eastern Turkey where on or around August 10, a female PKK fighter named Ekin Van was allegedly raped and killed before her naked body was dragged through the streets by Turkish security forces. The incident has outraged Kurds throughout the region.

“We will not recognize state institutions in this region. We hereby declared that we manage ourselves,” Kula said.

http://asbarez.com/138919/pkk-declares-autonomous-region-in-turkeys-dersim-province/

[Artashes]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

Yes, I agree , this needs to continuously be pursued.
However, without acknowledging what has taken place, this becomes more of a cat and mouse game rather than
----- the eradification of an entire ... and all that was stolen.

We are talking about theives of the grossest emaginable sort being bequeathed humanity , dignity, and ligitimate right to was was stolen under the most ********* inhumane ********** manner anyone can emaginable.
Furthermore ... If there is a church, than the congregation actually occupied an much greater area than church property.
I ripe you for xxxxx$ but I give you 10 cents??? ---- slick ------

It actually come down to either they stop lying or we are still dealing with the same entity.
Lowest common god damned denominator.

That applies equally the the kurds as well.
They are manuevering for the exact same goal as hundreds of years of our experience (unfortunate) with them.
IE: they coveted our land, wealth, girlis & women , children, and ??? Did I miss something ?

The reality is gruesome, unfortunately so is our history.
Regretfully , that's the truth.

And that's what's happening.

[Artashes]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

Yes, I agree , this needs to continuously be pursued.
However, without acknowledging what has taken place, this becomes more of a cat and mouse game rather than
----- the eradification of an entire ... and all that was stolen.

We are talking about theives of the grossest emaginable sort being bequeathed humanity , dignity, and ligitimate right to was was stolen under the most ********* inhumane ********** manner anyone can emaginable.
Furthermore ... If there is a church, than the congregation actually occupied an much greater area than church property.
I ripe you for xxxxx$ but I give you 10 cents??? ---- slick ------

It actually come down to either they stop lying or we are still dealing with the same entity.
Lowest common god damned denominator.

[Artashes]

Re: Prospects of a Kurdish state and what it means for Armenia

.

There seem to be a lot of hot air in this forum about Armenian lands , north Kurdistan etc.
These may be relevant but they need a lot of cooking time.
Let me highlight a far more serious scenario which is so close to our nose we cannot see it.

There has be quite a bit of publicity of “hidden” Armenians who are coming back to the fold. Also adopting the nation's faith.

As we know there is huge pressure on turkey to return Armenian churches and lands of the church which were appropriated.

The way things stand only Turkish citizens and through the Constantinople patriarchy can these lands returned to the church and the people.

It seems there is a huge loophole whereby any group of Turks can claim to be Armenian, adopt the religion and as community claim church and associated lands.
Turkey would love this fiasco to take place.

The question has to be can the patriarchy control events to avoid this sham.

Although I disagree with you on your evaluation of "far" more serious, I definitely agree on the seriousness.
This is part and parcel a turc act. Been going on for, mmm, well at least (extreme very least) since 1915.

--- the way things stand ---
turc govt is 100% in control of that and has been since ... Lol.

--- lets hope patriarch ... ---
As in the emmediately past (but really for how long??) ****** anyone ****** who wears the cloth is highly decernible ... Read that as highly subject to xxxxxtreme pressure.
This entire thing is a ploy.
In other words ... They are going give back what doesn't and never belonged to them, but like corporate obfuscation , they play this house of cards.
It's a shuck and jive act. They have the option of changing rules and parameters at any time.
It does need to be pursued, but my opinion, it's not getting to the heart of the matter.
No matter what math you do, no matter how complex, one always starts by reducing the equation to it lowest common denominator.

--- it's simply another fraudulent turc actic ---

They can not stand the light of truth.