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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Originally posted by Zeytun View Post
    In George Friedman's book "the next 100 years" he forecasts the fall and division of Russia and the emergence of Turkey as a regional power.
    I believe this forecast is quite correct ,what would that mean for Armenia ? I would really like to know your point of view on this matter.
    The forecast is incorrect and Armenia is the wedge that will hold in Turkish expansion. Iran is not going to sit around.
    Iran provides some 60 percent of oil/gas and Russia 40 percent.

    If Turkey wants to expand and become a regional power they must destroy Armenia first regardless of what happens in Russia they won't allow Armenia to fall, nor Iran.

    So in reality its Armenia that is a threat to Turks.......and we are growing and getting stronger.
    B0zkurt Hunter

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Originally posted by londontsi View Post
      Obama refuses to give appointment to Erdoğan amid strained ties

      http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy...es_397322.html

      US President Barrack Obama has refused to give President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an appointment in the next few months, citing his tight schedule, amid the presence of discord between the countries on outstanding issues in the Middle East, such as the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
      ...
      Rebels Blame Turkey After US-Trained 'Moderates' Captured Inside Syria

      http://sputniknews.com/us/20150825/1...#ixzz3jrqUig5x

      Turkish intelligence orchestrated last month's capture of a group of Syrian moderate rebels trained by the United States to fight the Islamic State, according to rebel sources who spoke with McClatchy.

      On July 29, al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front captured many of the 54 graduates of the $500 million US training program as soon as they entered Syria.

      Rebels believe the plans were leaked because Turkish officials feared that the US-trained Syrians would one day attack Islamist fighters that Turkey is close to, including Nusra and another major Islamist force, Ahrar al Sham, McClatchy reported.

      "Only the Americans and the Turks knew" about the plans for the train-and-equip fighters to enter Syria, said an officer of one rebel group. "We have sources who tell us the Turks warned Nusra that they would be targeted by this group."

      The Syrian rebel officer said Nusra still holds 22 of his comrades in Azzaz, a Syrian town just south of the Turkish border.

      "Right now the only thing keeping our men alive is that Turkey does not want them executed – al Qaeda always executes Arabs who work for the CIA," he said.

      As for Washington, Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said the US military had seen "no indications that Turkish officials alerted the Nusra Front to the movements" of the US-trained forces.

      Other anonymous Turkish officials "acknowledged the likely accuracy of the claims," McClatchy reported.

      One official said the plans were leaked in hopes the failure of the train-and-equip program would lead the Americans to invest in the training and arming of rebel groups aimed at toppling Syrian President Bashar Assad.

      Another rebel commander told McClatchy he was not surprised that Nusra would target the US-trained fighters, saying the ideologies of Nusra and Ahrar al Sham are similar to that of the Islamic State.

      "Nusra are al Qaeda by their own admission," said the commander. "And there's no ideological difference between [Islamic State] and the Nusra Front, just a political fight for control. All of the top Nusra commanders were once in the Islamic State."

      The United States and Turkey have clashed over what US officials view as Turkey's willingness to work with Nusra, which the United States labeled a terrorist organization three years ago.

      Turkey, meanwhile, has criticized the train-and-equip program for its insistence that participants agree to focus their efforts on defeating the Islamic State, not on battling Assad, McClatchy reported.
      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        "Please review Battle of Sardarapat to know how your ancestors defeated the Enemy without any help of third country.

        And avoid weak words such as



        it would mean disaster for Armenia as Turkey would finish off the genocide as no one would stop it then. "

        Looks like you had lions milk for breakfast. In the sea of battles we lost you bring up an example or two as if these victories are the norm for our armed forces. If this was true we would not be a tiney landlocked country that we are. Overestimating yourself can be even more dangerous then underestimating. Armenia has no chance against the modern Turkish army. Without any help from a third country the Armenia we have today would not be there. Credit should be given for our victories but to take those few victories from a sea of defeats and proclaim selfsufficiency in defense is a huge mistake. Dashnaks are notorious for making such huge mistakes while the Armenian population pays the ultimate price.
        Hayastan or Bust.

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
          "Please review Battle of Sardarapat to know how your ancestors defeated the Enemy without any help of third country.

          And avoid weak words such as



          it would mean disaster for Armenia as Turkey would finish off the genocide as no one would stop it then. "

          Looks like you had lions milk for breakfast. In the sea of battles we lost you bring up an example or two as if these victories are the norm for our armed forces. If this was true we would not be a tiney landlocked country that we are. Overestimating yourself can be even more dangerous then underestimating. Armenia has no chance against the modern Turkish army. Without any help from a third country the Armenia we have today would not be there. Credit should be given for our victories but to take those few victories from a sea of defeats and proclaim selfsufficiency in defense is a huge mistake. Dashnaks are notorious for making such huge mistakes while the Armenian population pays the ultimate price.
          I beg to differ with you Haykakan.
          There has not been a sea of defeats. There simply hasn't been enough wars of independence or national defense to say that we lost most of the time.
          But if you compare the wars fought while we had a self governance, we actually did very well.
          One has to look at our history from all the angles to see why we ended up quartered. From plagues in the Middle Ages that killed over half of urban populations (Armenians, Greeks etc) repeatedly, thus giving opportunities to nomads like Seljuks or turkmens who did not suffer as bad, to Muslim wave that has got to the gates of Christian heart like Vienna and left us isolated deep in the center of hostile populations.
          See the ISIS today? It should tell you how and with what manpower Muslim armies overcame Christian kingdoms, including ours.
          What Armeniya says is what at the end we have.
          About Turkey...
          It is most likely to split to kurdistan, Alevi, Sunni and secular sections in future.
          Turkey has equal and more cracks compared to Russia. Unlike Russia, Turks will face bigger identity crisises in future because of their history.
          Turkey will never become regional superpower. In its way lie not only us but all the other nations from all directions, who's history only has blood in Turks hands

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            "Sparapet" Looks like you did not have enough Lions milk!






            Again, Avoid weak words such as

            Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
            Armenia has no chance against the modern Turkish army.









            The officers of the 5th Infantry Regiment, heroes of Sardarabad.






            The Armenians attempted to stall the Ottoman advance as they created a small Armenian army to take up the positions the Russians had abandoned.

            The Ottoman defeats at Sardarabad, Bash Abaran, and Karakilisa- staved off the annihilation of the Armenian nation, and the victories here were instrumental in allowing the Armenian National Council to declare the independence of the First Republic of Armenia on May 30 (retroactive to May 28). Though the terms that Armenia agreed to in the Treaty of Batum (June 4, 1918) were excessively harsh, the little republic was able to hold out until the Ottomans were forced to withdraw from the region with the end of World War I in late 1918.


            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sardarabad
            Your Armenian Lion

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Հայաստանն Իսրայելի համար մնում է էքզիստենցիալ թշնամի

              ԻԳՈՐ ՄՈՒՐԱԴՅԱՆ, Քաղաքագետ
              Մեկնաբանություն - 26 Օգոստոսի 2015,

              Իսրայելը եւ մեծ պատերազմը Միջագետքում

              Իսրայելը կարծես թե հայտնվել է բավական շահեկան վիճակում: Արաբական աշխարհի առաջնորդը՝ Եգիպտոսը կրկին հայտարարել է, որ մնում է ԱՄՆ հավատարիմ դաշնակիցը եւ շարունակում է գործընկերային հարաբերությունն Իսրայելի հետ: Հորդանանը նույնպես պահպանում է Իսրայելի հետ նախկին պայմանավորվածությունները:

              Սաուդյան Արաբիան, զգուշանալով Իրանի հետ ԱՄՆ-ի հարաբերության կարգավորումից, գտնվում է Իրանի հետ դիմակայության նոր հնարավորությունների փնտրտուքում եւ գտել է գործընկեր ի դեմս Իսրայելի: Բացի Սաուդյան Արաբիայից, Իսրայելը փորձում է հարաբերություններ հաստատել Պարսից ծոցի արաբական պետությունների՝ Էմիրաթների ու Կատարի, նույնիսկ Քուվեյթի հետ:
              Լիբանանը Իսրայելից որոշակի աջակցություն է սպասում, ճիշտ է՝ այդ սպասումները վերաբերվում են երկրի որոշակի համայնքներին:

              Արեւելյան Միջերկրածովյան շրջանում շահերի ընդհանրություն է առաջանում Իսրայելի ու Հունաստանի միջեւ: Իսրայելն իրականացնում է քրդերին ռազմական օգնություն ցուցաբերելու քաղաքականություն, ընդ որում՝ առանց բացառության քրդական բոլոր կազմակերպություններին ու խմբերին:

              Բայց ամենագլխավորը՝ Իսրայելը դարձել է Ռուսաստանի մերձավոր գործընկերը: Ռուսաստանը նման գործընկերոջ կարիք ունի առավել քան երբեւէ, քանի որ արաբական աշխարհում կորցրել է վերջին դաշնակիցներին ու բարեկամներին:

              Այնուամենայնիվ, Իսրայելը խիստ զգուշանում է միջուկային ծրագրի շուրջ ԱՄՆ-ի ու Իրանի պայմանավորվածություններից: Թեեւ, Իսրայելին մտահոգում է ոչ միայն Իրանի միջուկային ծրագիրը, այլեւ Իրանի տարածաշրջանային քաղաքականությսւնը:

              Իսրայելը խնդիր է դրել չեզոքացնել Իրանի տարածաշրջանային բոլոր կապերը, եւ Իրանի ցանկացած խնդիր նպաստում է Իսրայելի դիրքերին: Պետք է ասել, որ Իսրայելին բավական մտահոգում է Իրանը Եվրոպային կապող հաղորդակցությունների կառուցման հնարավորությունը, ինչն, ի դեպ, համահունչ է Ռուսաստանի նման մտահոգությանը:

              ԱՄՆ-ն ու Արեւմուտքը կարծես թե հայտարարել են, որ իրանական սպառնալիքն այլեւս չկա, սակայն Իրանի հարեւան շատ երկրներ կցանկանային, որպեսզի այդ «սպառնալիքը» շարունակվի: Իսրայելը միշտ գործում է այլ ազդեցիկ պետությունների միջոցով՝ ԱՄՆ-ի կամ Ռուսաստանի: Այս դեպքում Իսրայելը, ցանկանում է Իրանի հարցում կառավարել Ռուսաստանը:

              Բոլոր հարցերի պատասխանը Սիրիայի իրավիճակն է, որի հետ Իսրայելը պաշտոնապես պատերազմի մեջ է: Ներկայում Սիրիան որեւէ վտանգ չի ներկայացնում Իսրայելի համար, հատկապես Սիրիայի քիմիական զենքի ոչնչացումից հետո: Բայց եթե Իսլամական պետությանը հաջողվի գրավել Դամասկոսն ու Հալեպը, Իսրայելի ու Իսլամական պետության ներկայիս «բարեկամական» հարաբերությունները կարող են վերանայվել:

              Իսլամիստները կդառնան առաջնային սպառնալիք Իսրայելի համար: Պետք է նշել, որ երկար տարիներ Իսրայելը փորձել է «աբսորբացնել» Լիբանանի ու Սիրիայի տարբեր համայնքներ, այդ թվում ալավիներին: Այսինքն, Իսրայելի ապագան կապված է Լեվանտի գավառների հետ հարաբերություններին, ինչը շատ կարեւոր է Իսրայելի անվտանգության համար:

              Հարց է առաջանում՝ ներկայում կա՞ն շփումներ Իսրայելի ու Սիրիայի միջեւ: Հաշվի առնելով Իրանի ազդեցությունը Սիրիայի վրա, դժվար թե իսրայելցիներին հաջողվել է կանոնավոր շփումների մեջ մտնել Սիրիայի հետ: Բայց փաստ է, որ որոշակի շփումներ կան, եւ այդ մասին խոսում են Բեյրութի որոշ դիտորդներ, հատկապես՝ եվրոպացի:

              Իսրայելը պատրաստում է լեւանտական մերձափնյա տարածքները եւ սիրիական ներքին տարածքները վերաֆորմատավորելու ծրագիր: Եթե Իսրայելը վերահսկի Լեւանտը, նրա անվտանգությունն էապես կուժեղանա:

              Արեւմուտքի ԶԼՄ-ները եւ թինկ-թենկերը, որոնք վերահսկվում են Իսրայելի կողմից, չեն շեշտում Սիրիայի ներկայիս ռեժիմի սպառնալիքների ու բացասական բնույթի մասին, չեն կարող բավարար չափով քննադատել ռեժիմին, քանի որ դրանով իրենց համար փոս փորած կլինեն: Բացի այդ, Իսրայելը հասկանում է, որ տարածաշրջանում իր միակ գործընկերը կարող էին լինել Լեւանտի որոշ համայնքներ:

              Իսրայելը Սիրիայի ներկայիս իշխող ռեժիմն օգտագործում է Թուրքիայի շահերի դեմ, որը թշնամական վերաբերմունք ունի ալավիներին: Իսրայելը սիրիական ընդդիմությանն ու Իսլամական պետությանը զգուշացրել է, որ Սիրիայում դրուզների ներկայությունը բխում է իր շահերից:

              Իսրայելի դրական վերաբերմունքը ալավիներին Իրանի հետ ինչ որ հաշտության, ավելի ճիշտ փոխըմբռնման հասնելու միակ հույսն է, թեեւ թվում է դա հեռավոր մի բան է ու ոչ մի հույս չկա:
              Ինչպես տեսնում ենք, առայժմ առանց տեսանելի հաջողության, Իսրայելը փորձում է Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ու Միջերկրական ծովի արեւելքում ստեղծել ռազմական ու քաղաքական համագործակցության բլոկ: Ընդ որում, գործընկերները շատ քիչ են, բայց կան:

              Իսրայելը հասկանում է, որ որոշ գործընկերներ կարող են հայտնվել Ռուսաստանի հետ համագործակցության բազայի վրա: Դա ավելի է մեծացնում Իրանի հակակրանքը Ռուսաստանի հանդեպ:
              Իրանի գործընկեր է դարձել Ադրբեջանը: Վրաստանի հետ հարաբերությունները փչացել են Իսրայելի համար առավել արժեքավոր գործընկերոջ՝ Ռուսաստանի պատճառով: Հայաստանն Իսրայելի համար մնում է էքզիստենցիալ թշնամի, եւ դրա հետ ոչինչ չես անի:
              Ինչ որ տեղ Մերձավոր Արեւելքում, 2015 թ. օգոստոս

              - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....UqWG3EWw.dpuf









              The officers of the 5th Infantry Regiment, heroes of Sardarabad.






              The Armenians attempted to stall the Ottoman advance as they created a small Armenian army to take up the positions the Russians had abandoned.

              The Ottoman defeats at Sardarabad, Bash Abaran, and Karakilisa- staved off the annihilation of the Armenian nation, and the victories here were instrumental in allowing the Armenian National Council to declare the independence of the First Republic of Armenia on May 30 (retroactive to May 28). Though the terms that Armenia agreed to in the Treaty of Batum (June 4, 1918) were excessively harsh, the little republic was able to hold out until the Ottomans were forced to withdraw from the region with the end of World War I in late 1918.


              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sardarabad[/QUOTE]

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Originally posted by Hakob View Post
                I beg to differ with you Haykakan.
                There has not been a sea of defeats. There simply hasn't been enough wars of independence or national defense to say that we lost most of the time.
                But if you compare the wars fought while we had a self governance, we actually did very well.
                One has to look at our history from all the angles to see why we ended up quartered. From plagues in the Middle Ages that killed over half of urban populations (Armenians, Greeks etc) repeatedly, thus giving opportunities to nomads like Seljuks or turkmens who did not suffer as bad, to Muslim wave that has got to the gates of Christian heart like Vienna and left us isolated deep in the center of hostile populations.
                See the ISIS today? It should tell you how and with what manpower Muslim armies overcame Christian kingdoms, including ours.
                What Armeniya says is what at the end we have.
                About Turkey...
                It is most likely to split to kurdistan, Alevi, Sunni and secular sections in future.
                Turkey has equal and more cracks compared to Russia. Unlike Russia, Turks will face bigger identity crisises in future because of their history.
                Turkey will never become regional superpower. In its way lie not only us but all the other nations from all directions, who's history only has blood in Turks hands
                Turkey has been on life support thanks to Europe and USA. It would have fallen apart long ago if the "West" didn't save it time and again. This is why I can't help but laugh at the notion that some stupid author thinks it will become a regional power while Russia collapses. Turkey exists because of NATO and other such organizations in the past.
                Yeh sure Armenians know how to fight and use our mountains to our advantage better then most but you hit on a very important point when you say "if you compare the wars fought while we had a self governance". Why do you suppose we have not had much self government? Was it the "plagues"? or perhaps the "manpower Muslim armies "? You see you can think of all the excuses in the world but you will time and again be dead wrong as you avoid the real reasons why we Armenians cant govern ourselves. You can see in todays Armenia and you can warp back into any era of the past and it will be the exact same thing. We Armenians refuse with every essence of our beings to unite. We absolutely refuse to be governed by fellow Armenians and much prefer foreign domination. We look at others as superior to ourselves when it comes to governing yet we strive to beat them at everything else. Even at Sardarabad we were not united as our greatest general of all time gave up on his own people since they had refused so many times in the past to unite. Nothing has changed for us. We Armenians can still indeed fight with the best of them but the disease of disunity and jealousy still haunts our very beings. We have plenty of land today yet diasporans will not move there as they do not consider it their homeland or nation, they prefer Russia, or USA, or anywhere but Armenia. Hell those born and raised there want to gtfo because they to refuse to be governed by fellow Armenians. So long as we deny the real problem, we will always fail to find a real solution. We can easily create a wonderful homeland togather, one that we can all be proud to live in and raise our families in. There is nothing stoping us from doing this but ourselves. Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that as sure as we are Armenians, we will not create a wonderful homeland but instead will flock to Glendale(or some other xxxxhole) and make that into an eden instead of our homeland. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it and we Armenians are as stubborn as it gets.
                Hayastan or Bust.

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  That about sums it up on us Armenians.......now lets make our Kabobs and cheers oghi to Armenia.
                  unfckingbelievable. WHY????!!!
                  B0zkurt Hunter

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Haykakan
                    What you are talking about Armenians not being united enough etc... Is the result of our history. Not the other way around. People should stop blaming our selfs for wrong reasons.
                    There is a clear parallel between our and other indigenous nations histories that end up being in the center of civilizations for a while and then being swept away by other ethnic groups.
                    We proud our selfs that our people have been at the roots of civilization in eastern Anatolia and Mideast generally, from where the start of agriculture, dominating religions, domestication of some animals, building of cities and start of technologies such as iron implements and other things have come. That our people have been at the roots of trade (there is evidence that first idea of corporations have started in our area) and sea routs. Geografically whole Mediterranean is a single place.
                    Look at Greeks, kopts (who had built Egyptian civilization, pyramids etc) Assyrians etc. what happened to them?
                    For last 400 years this center of civilization has been the central and northwest Europe, which is on self destructing mode for 100 years now.
                    How would a French, English and some other people there think in 200 years when with all the evidence there nations will be totally changed and identity destroyed? It is happening right now.
                    First the advanced society attracts influx of people from desolate areas, then this emigration weakens the host society, next armies from those places invade and destroy this society. It happened many times and will continue so.
                    Right now in every sense national identities are being suppressed and destroyed in Europe for the sake of standards of living and individual's well being.
                    Even in U.S. Looks like it will take very short time. History rolls faster and faster.
                    Who would go to Amur and Baykal areas even now? But people came from as far away as there to our areas for the riches and better life. Geopolitics...
                    It is wrong to judge history only from today's perspective. What made us successfull 3000 years ago, did not work 1500 years later against ethnic and religious groups with different newer structures who came into area. We have spoken about indigenous peoples confederate character, no need to repeat.
                    If somebody thinks that today's Armenians are the same as pre 1915, they are badly mistaken. If you want to see what mentality infested Armenians in ottoman turkey, look into hamshen Armenians left there. Even left over Christians are badly lacking their identity.
                    True that in eastern parts, kars, Van, Erzurum, Cilicia was denser populated by us, hence the liberation and self defense that by comparison is never less than for any nation in similar circumstances. The same hamshentsi that is living in Adler, calls himself 100% Armenian.
                    Before blaming our national character in Armenia, people should also take into account 200 years of Russian empirical history and 70 years of communism and what effects are lingering in population.
                    Last edited by Hakob; 08-27-2015, 06:00 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      .

                      Only in totalitarian systems the people are “united”.
                      The nation should be “united” only around core values such as independence, civil society etc.
                      United beyond that would mean North Korea type country.

                      The definition of a democratic country is to have at least two opposing view political parties. So there is the division.
                      Many democratic countries typically half a dozen parties, does that mean they are fragmented?

                      .
                      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                      Comment

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