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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Kurdish oil is another Netanyahu-Obama head-to-head front
    24/08/15



    That Israel and other nations were buying oil from the Kurdish republic of Iraq had been published before and was no secret. The Financial Times broke its “discovery” Sunday, Aug. 23, just by chance? on the day that Britain and Iran reopened their respective embassies in Tehran and London after a four-year breach resulting from a mob attack on the Tehran embassy.
    Even before sanctions were lifted and Tehran had demonstrated its compliance with the nuclear deal signed with the world powers in Vienna on July 14, European ministers were knocking on the door in a quest for financial relations. The Islamic Republic was deemed rehabilitated by the nuclear accord; and the UK saw no reason to lag behind the others. And so Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond was personally in attendance at the ceremonial reopening Sunday of the Tehran embassy.
    The FT’s report’s timing fitting in perfectly with the British government’s plans to quickly develop profitable ties with the Islamic Republic in the following arenas:
    1. The oil industries in Iran and Iraq. London seeks as large a slice as possible of the $150 billion worth of oil and gas contracts on offer by Tehran.
    2. The Islamic Republic was also meant to infer from the FT report that British intelligence resources and its powerful media were available as tools for beating Israel out on the world’s energy markets.
    3. Britain’s foreign policy is grounded in accentuating its common interests with Washington. The Obama administration may pose as a champion of Masoud Barzani, President of the autonomous Kurdish Republic of northern Iraq. His peshmerga army has after all distinguished itself in its dogged fight against the Islamic State. But in practice, things are different: the US administration, to meet the wishes of Tehran and Baghdad, consistently withholds from the Kurds the heavy weapons they need to rout ISIS.
    The pejorative depiction of Israel’s purchase of Kurdish oil was meant to gain London points – not just with Iran and Iraq, but also with the Obama White House.
    In serving this purpose, The Financial Times found no editorial need to fill in the pertinent Middle East background of the trade.
    Exactly a year ago, DEBKAfile discovered and reported that Kurdish oil was being delivered to Israel. Several media discovered an American warship that was described at the time as stalking the United Kalvyrta tanker which carried a million barrels of Kurdish oil. The warship planned to prevent the oil being unloaded at any port, since Washington viewed the cargo as the legal property of the Iraqi government – not the KRG which had put it up for sale. Had the oil reached its purchasers, it would have been nearly impossible to cut off Kurdistan’s export trade to clients outside Iraq.
    This American step was part and parcel of the US negotiating tactics for a nuclear accord, then at one of their critical moments. The Obama administration was anxious to show Tehran how closely the US would play ball with Iran and Shiite-dominated Iraq on the vital issue of oil, once the nuclear accord was in the bag.
    But the episode did not pan out as expected.
    This is what happened: “The partially full Kamari tanker carrying Kurdish crude oil disappeared from satellite tracking north of Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Two days later, the empty vessel reappeared near Israel.”
    No one in the trade doubted for a moment that the vanishing oil had been unloaded at an Israeli port.
    In reporting this at the time, a DEBKAfile map traced the freight’s route from the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the terminus of the oil pipeline from the Kurdish-controlled oilfields of Kirkuk, to the Israeli port of Ashkelon.
    That was the missing background of the Financial Times story, which led up to its conclusion that Kurdish oil accounts for 77 percent of Israel’s consumption, totalling around a quarter of a million bpd. Between May and August this year, the Haifa refineries are said to have handled 19 million barrels of oil sourced to Kurdistan.
    Since all matters relating to energy are made in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s office, it stands to reason that the decision to buy oil from the KRG came from the top.
    Netanyahu’s readiness to go head to head with the Obama administration on this issue hat two motives:
    First, Kurdish oil was cheap. Irbil denies undercutting the market, but DEBKAfile’s sources report that it was willing to do so in the case of Israel.
    Second, the Netanyahu government and the Obama administration don’t see to eye to eye not just on nuclear Iran, but on Middle East policy in general - and the autonomous Kurdish republic of Iraq, in particular. The prime minister intended for Barzani to use this oil revenue to buy the arms he needs to fight ISIS to the finish.
    At the time of this decision, crude had soared past $100 on the world market, and Islamic State forces were advancing on the Kurdish capital of Irbil. Washington may have countenanced Mosul’s fall to jihadist forces, but Israel was determined to prevent the fall of friendly Irbil.
    This week, as Netanyahu marked the first 100 days of his fourth term as prime minister, his critics described him as weak and lacking in accomplishments. The Kurdish enterprise was one of several cases in which he quietly took a strong initiative.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Ադրբեջանը իսլամիստների խմբեր է պատրաստում Հայաստանի դեմ

      ԻԳՈՐ ՄՈՒՐԱԴՅԱՆ, Քաղաքագետ
      Մեկնաբանություն - 31 Օգոստոսի 2015,


      Իսլամական պետությունն ու Ադրբեջանը

      Ադրբեջանի ավելի քան 1500 քաղաքացի կռվում է Իսլամական պետության զինված ջոկատներում, ընդդեմ սիրիական կառավարական զորքերի: Այդ մասին հայտարարվում է բացեիբաց: Timeturk տեղեկատվական գործակալությունը տեղեկացնում է, որ նրանք հիմնականում «Մահմուդ» ջոկատի կազմում են:

      2014-ից Սիրիայում ու Իրաքում սպանվել է շուրջ 300 ադրբեջանցի, ինչի մասին ստիպված է եղել հայտարարել Թուրքիայում Ադրբեջանի դեսպանատունը: Դեսպանատունը հայտարարել է նաեւ, որ գրոհայինները Սիրիա են մեկնել Թուրքիայի տարածքով:

      Ադրբեջանի կառավարությունը երկակի խաղ է խաղում: Մի կողմից, նա փորձում է հեռավորություն պահել գրոհայիններից, միաժամանակ փորձում է սուննի միջազգային կազմակերպություններին ու պետություններին ցույց տալ, որ շիա աշխարհին Ադրբեջանի պատկանելությունը գործնական քաղաքական նշանակություն չունի, եւ Բաքվում պատրաստ են աջակցել սուննի պետություններին ու նրանց շահերը, ինչը նշանակում է դիմակայություն Իրանի հետ:

      Ադրբեջանը ֆինանսավորում է Ռուսաստանից ու այլ երկրներից զենքի գնումներն ու Թուրքիայի տարածքով մատակարարում Իսլամական պետությանը: Բացի այդ, Ադրբեջանը Իսլամական պետությանը տրամադրում է հետախուզական տեղեկատվություն, որի մի մասն իրականում հնարովի է եւ նույնիսկ ճշմարտանման չէ:

      Ադրբեջանը Սիրիայի ալավի ռեժիմի ու Իրաքի շիա իշխանության դեմ պայքարով ցանկանում է սուննի պետություններին ապացուցել, որ լիովին պատրաստ է դիմակայել Իրանին:

      Ադրբեջանը նաեւ ձգտում է սերտ հարաբերություններ հաստատել քրդական կազմակերպությունների հետ, ինչը մասնակի հաջողվում է, սակայն քրդերն ընդհանուր առմամբ անվստահությամբ են վերաբերվում Ադրբեջանին:

      Ներկայում Ադրբեջանի գլխավոր շտաբը կիրառում է տարբեր նախաձեռնություններ Իսլամական պետության համար գրոհայիններ հավաքագրելու եւ ուղարկելու համար: Կա որոշում՝ ապագայում պատրաստել 10 հազար գրոհայինների, ընդ որում՝ ոչ միայն Ադրբեջանի քաղաքացիներից, Իսլամական պետության եւ իսլամական արմատական այլ կառույցների կարիքների համար:

      Իսլամական պետությունը Ադրբեջանը դիտարկում է որպես Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ավելի էական դեր խաղալու հնարավորություն, ինչպես նաեւ առանձին պետությունների ու միջազգային արմատական կազմակերպությունների ուշադրությունը Հարավային Կովկասի իրադարձություններին կենտրոնացնելու միջոց: Ադրբեջանում զգացել են, որ ժամանակն է ավելի գերադասելի երեւալ սուննի աշխարհում:

      Ռուսաստանի ռազմա-քաղաքական փորձագետների տեղեկություններով, ներկայում Ռուսաստանը, հասկանալով, որ Հայաստանը շահագրգիռ է Մերձավոր Արեւելքի իրադարձություններին մասնակցության մեջ, նախեւառաջ՝ Իսլամական պետության դեմ կոալիցիայում, փորձում է Ադրբեջանի ու Հայաստանի միջեւ լարվածությունը մեծացնելով վերջինիս ստիպել հրաժարվել այդ նպատակից: Կասկած չկա, որ Ռուսաստանը Ադրբեջանի միջոցով ձեռք է բերում Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ազդեցության լծակներ:

      Ադրբեջանը երկար ժամանակ չուներ արաբական երկրների հետ հարաբերությունները զարգացնելու շանսեր, որոնք Ադրբեջանը դիտարկում էին Իսրայելի մերձավոր դաշնակից ու գործընկեր: Արաբ փորձագետներից ու քաղաքական գործիչներից շատ եմ լսել, որ «Ադրբեջանը հակաարաբական պետություն է»:

      Ներկայում, իհարկե, Ադրբեջանը չէր ցանկանա սահմանափակել իր հարաբերություններն Իսրայելի հետ, որը Ադրբեջանին զենքի հիմնական մատակարարներից է, սակայն տարածաշրջանում ստեղծվում է նոր իրավիճակ, երբ Իսրայելը արաբական առաջատար պետությունների հետ հարաբերություններ է հաստատել հակաիրանական հողի վրա: Այդ պատճառով, Իսլամական պետությանն աջակցությունը իրական հնարավորություն է դարձել Սաուդյան Արաբիայի եւ արաբական այլ երկրների հետ մերձենալու համար, երկրներ, որոնք աջակցում են Իսլամական պետությանը:

      Միեւնույն ժամանակ, պետք է նշել, որ Ադրբեջանի գլխավոր խնդիրն առայժմ իր տարածքում Իսլամական պետության գործունեությունը թույլ չտալն է:

      Քրդական աղբյուրների համաձայն, Ադրբեջանի ներկայացուցիչներն արդեն Սիրիայում գտել են համապատասխան կապեր եւ ձգտում են ընդլայնել դրանք: Առայժմ դա հաջողվում է, սակայն եթե Իսլամական պետությունը որոշի ընդլայնել իր հաջողությունները կամ հակառակը՝ ստիպված լինի իր գործունեությունը Մերձավոր Արեւելքից տեղափոխել այլ շրջաններ, Ադրբեջանը կդառնա բավական հարմար հարթակ այդ գործունեությունը շարունակելու համար:

      Ադրբեջանը Դաղստանի քաղաքական ղեկավարներին գնելու երկարամյա փորձ ունի, ծախսելով տարեկան մոտ 15 միլիոն դոլար, իհարկե՝ Ռուսաստանի իշխանության հետ համաձայնեցված, եւ ադրբեջանցիները պատրաստ են ծախսել ավելի մեծ գումարներ, եթե սեղանին դրված է ադրբեջանական պետության գոյության հարցը:

      Ադրբեջանի նպատակներից մեկը, գուցե եւ գլխավոր նպատակը Իրանի թուլացումն է, այդ թվում նրան բնական գործընկերներից ու դաշնակիցներից զրկելու միջոցով: Ադրբեջանն ունի Հայաստանը շրջափակելու փորձ, իսկ Թուրքիան ու Ադրբեջանն արդեն որոշակի դեր են խաղացել Իրանին շրջափակելու հարցում:

      Ներկայում Իրանը մեկուսացնելու եւ նրան հարեւաններից կոմունիկացիոն կախվածության մեջ դնելու ժամանակն է: Դա բարդ ու ներկայիս պայմաններում գործնականում անհնար խնդիր է, եթե այդ խնդրին չներգրավվեն Իսրայելը եւ սուննի պետությունները: Կարելի է ենթադրել, որ այդ սցենարին հաճույքով կմիանա նաեւ Ռուսաստանը, ընդ որում՝ ոչ միայն Կովկասյան-Սեւծովյան ուղղությամբ: Այստեղ անսպասելի ոչինչ չկա, Ռուսաստանն ու Ադրբեջանը ունեն ընդհանուր շահեր:

      Միաժամանակ, Իրանի ապաշրջափակմամբ շահագրգիռ են եվրոպական խոշոր պետությունները եւ Հեռավոր Արեւելքի պետությունները, այդ պատճառով էլ Իրանին շրջափակելու ծրագիրը մարգինալ է գեոտնտեսական նշանակության ու դերի տեսակետից:

      Ադրբեջանի քաղաքական ղեկավարության մեջ հայտնվել են բազմաթիվ արմատականներ, ովքեր ժամանակ առ ժամանակ առաջ են քաշում ֆանտաստիկ ծրագրեր: Այս դեպքում առկա է նաեւ Թուրքիայի հետ հարաբերություններում մեծ կշիռ ձեռք բերելու գաղափարը:

      Բաքվում շտապում են, քանի որ աշխարհում արմատապես փոխվել է էներգետիկ իրավիճակը, եւ կասկածի տակ են դրվել նավթային եկամուտները՝ Բաքվի արտաքին քաղաքական մանիպուլյացիաների գլխավոր լծակը: Այս կապակցությամբ, Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ներկայիս իրավիճակը Ադրբեջանը դիտարկում է որպես նոր նշանակություն ձեռք բերելու շանս: Ընդ որում, Բաքվում այնքան էլ գոհ չեն Թուրքիայից, եւ ցանկանում են նոր լծակներ ձեռք բերել նրա հանդեպ:

      Իհարկե, գրոհայինների պատրաստումը կապված է Հայաստանի դեմ ուղղված խնդիրների, ինչպես նաեւ Ադրբեջանի ներքին խնդիրների հետ: Այդ խմբերի օգտագործումը Ադրբեջանի ռազմական կարեւոր խնդիրն է, եւ դրանք օգտագործվելու են անհրաժեշտ պահին:

      Սակայն խնդիր է այն, որ դրանք անպետք են երկարատեւ ու ակտիվ ռազմական գործողությունների համար: Քրդական աղբյուրների համաձայն, այդ կոնտինգենտի կազմում հիմնականում ապադասային տարրեր են՝ խիստ մերկանտիլ նպատակներով, եւ նրանց օգտագործում են հենց նման ակցիաներում, այդ թվում՝ տեղական քաղաքացիական բնակչության դեմ հաշվեհարդար տեսնելու համար:
      Այսպես թե այնպես, Ադրբեջանը շուտով ճանաչվելու է տվյալ զինված խմբերի համակարգային «մատակարար» եւ արմատական կազմակերպությունների հովանավոր:
      Ինչ որ տեղ Մերձավոր Արեւելքում, օգոստոս 2015

      - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....HCYJ1tx9.dpuf

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        AZERBAIJAN'S NIMBLE NATIONAL STRATEGY

        STRATFOR
        Aug 31 2015

        Analysis
        August 31, 2015

        Known simply as the "Bulvar," Baku's pedestrian promenade offers a
        view of the capital city that encapsulates the essence of modern
        Azerbaijan. The Bulvar meanders along the northwest edge of the
        crescent of the Bay of Baku, and beyond, one can see the choppy waters
        of the Caspian Sea and numerous, distant oil tankers. Opposite the
        Caspian is a panoramic view of the modern city that the contents
        of these oil tankers helped to build. Baku's skyline is replete
        with gleaming glass skyscrapers in the shape of flames, flanked by
        richly adorned European-style baroque administration buildings. These
        prominent buildings signify the importance of Baku's position not
        only as the political and commercial center of Azerbaijan, but also
        as the center of a key energy player in Eurasia.

        The Bulvar also serves as a popular setting for fireworks and
        festivities to celebrate Azerbaijan's national holidays. Aug. 30,
        2015 marks the 24th anniversary of Azerbaijan's independence from the
        Soviet Union. National celebrations are typically held later, on Oct.

        18. But this occasion provides an opportunity to reflect on the
        past two dozen years of the post-Soviet period and to look ahead to
        Azerbaijan's future.

        In historical terms, 24 years is a short span. But for Azerbaijan,
        these decades have brought titanic change. The country began its
        independence inauspiciously. At the end of August in 1991, Azerbaijan
        was in the midst of a full-fledged war with Armenia. The conflict
        began in 1988, when the glasnost and perestroika reforms of Soviet
        leader Mikhail Gorbachev gave space for the Armenians to become more
        vocal about their desire to annex Nagorno-Karabakh, a region populated
        mostly by ethnic Armenians but at the time administered by Azerbaijan.

        The resulting war lasted seven years and cost thousands of lives. In
        the end, Azerbaijan lost not only Nagorno-Karabakh but also seven
        adjacent regions that collectively accounted for about 15 percent of
        Azerbaijan's Soviet-era territory.

        For the first few years of independence, Azerbaijan's politics were
        in disarray. Baku went through three governments in three years. In
        1992, Azerbaijan's first president, Ayaz Mutalibov, was deposed
        after a year in office. His successor, Abulfaz Elchibey, was likewise
        deposed in 1993. This led to the rise of Heydar Aliyev, who had been
        a leader of Soviet Azerbaijan and member of the Politburo in the
        1980s. As independent Azerbaijan's third president, Aliyev managed
        to consolidate power and bring political order as well as oversee a
        cease-fire agreement with Armenia.

        Under Aliyev, post-Soviet Azerbaijan established a national strategy
        that is still in place today. Azerbaijan began using its sizable energy
        wealth to develop the country's economy; during Aliyev's presidency
        the country launched several major oil and natural gas production and
        export projects. While it had long been an important energy producer
        (it accounted for nearly half of global oil supply at the turn of the
        20th century) Azerbaijan's production and export had been controlled
        by external powers, namely Russia. The 1990s saw the newly independent
        country launch its first major energy projects as a nation in charge of
        its own resources, albeit with significant investment and participation
        from Western oil and natural gas companies.

        Azerbaijan controlled and expanded its energy industry under Aliyev,
        enabling another key component of Azerbaijan's national strategy to
        emerge: balancing between external powers to maintain sovereignty and
        territorial integrity. Azerbaijan's location in the Caucasus region,
        surrounded by Russia, Turkey and Iran, and engaged politically by
        the United States and Europe, makes for a challenging and complex
        geopolitical environment. Azerbaijan watched as Armenia chose to
        ally politically and militarily with Russia, while Georgia sought
        to look West and avoid Russian alignment, only to have parts of its
        former Soviet territory in Abkhazia and South Ossetia break off and
        host a Russian military presence. Azerbaijan looked to avoid aligning
        with any single regional power to preserve its sovereignty and deter
        foreign military presence.

        Instead, Azerbaijan aspired to engage and cooperate with multiple
        powers. The development of the country's energy resources was a key
        tool. Azerbaijan launched oil and natural gas projects, including the
        Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and South Caucasus pipelines to Turkey and Europe,
        and also maintained or expanded energy exports to Russia and Iran.

        Azerbaijan did not choose to join Russia's alliance system like
        Armenia or orient itself toward the European Union and NATO like
        Georgia. Instead it sought political and economic cooperation with both
        sides and with Turkey and Iran to the south. It enabled Azerbaijan
        to focus on expanding its energy industry and broader economy and
        ensured a stable political transition, which occurred in 2003, when
        Heydar Aliyev died after a decade in office and was succeeded by his
        son Ilham Aliyev.

        For the next decade, the younger Aliyev ruled the country much
        like his father had done. Azerbaijan's economy grew with its energy
        industry. Military expenditures escalated with the stated goal of
        one day reclaiming Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Aliyev followed the
        national strategy pioneered by his father, balancing between Russia,
        Turkey and the West, while not fully committing to any of them. Baku
        continued to feel the effects of broader regional dynamics such as
        the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and the tension between the West and
        Iran over Tehran's nuclear program. Azerbaijan nevertheless avoided
        entangling alliances while engaging all sides based on the geopolitical
        conditions at the time.

        However, the 2014 Euromaidan uprising in Ukraine and the ensuing
        collision between Russia and the West has been one of the most
        significant developments in Azerbaijan's short period of independence.

        The standoff has made Azerbaijan even more vital to Europe's efforts to
        become less energy dependent on Russia. This was seen in the European
        Union's call for Azerbaijan to participate in the Trans-Caspian
        pipeline project, just as Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II natural gas fields
        are set to come online in 2018. Russia's weakness and distraction
        in the Ukraine conflict has also enabled Azerbaijan to become more
        militarily assertive along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh --
        more so than it has been since the cease-fire agreement was signed
        over 20 years ago. Azerbaijan has become more valuable to both Russia
        and the West, and Baku has been using its leverage with both sides
        to boost its political and military position in the region.

        Of course, Azerbaijan also faces its share of challenges. The
        collapse in global oil prices has hit its economy hard, though its
        diversification into the downstream energy, or energy processing,
        sector and non-energy economy has mitigated the impact more so than
        other energy producers in the region. Azerbaijan has also not been
        immune to protests and domestic political concerns, albeit to a lesser
        degree than its immediate neighbors. Finally, Azerbaijan is aware that,
        despite the leverage it has gained from the Russia-West standoff,
        it is not in a position to defy Russia militarily in the event of
        a conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, though it could advance over the
        issue in political dialogue with Russia.

        But what is clear is that Azerbaijan has come a long way from the
        instability and uncertainty it confronted when it first gained
        independence in 1991. After two eventful decades, it is poised to
        become an increasingly important player in Eurasian energy and broader
        regional politics.

        https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/az...ional-strategy

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          In order such UNITY being Possible should be REAL....ever after for what i do call THE SURVIVERS within ONE Anatolian dominant Race-ARMENIANS (only) survived since the END OF COSMOPOLITANISM and BEGINNING OF NATIONALISMS 1900-1923 (in Smyrna Hinterland as well) not just the GENOCIDES or NATIONAL CLEANSINGS which followed after DARK: e.g. 760,000 refugees :"dissappeared" only in Athens precincts during 1923-1949.....3X more than Smyrna 1922 (I am not a biggot, GOLDEN DAWN (faschists) in Greece are rather such SITTING DUCKS....SYRIZA DAWN (communists) in Greece are as much SITTING!) ----- WHAT YOU NEED therefore is YOUNG EDUCATED FOLK...FULL WITH ENERGY/WILLPOWER/DETERMINATION...(Urmistake), WHEN the Whichever system this world throws at us......GREXIT they threw! NAGORNO KARABAH showed something to the World, ARMENIANS are not the victims and losers after several centuries...NOW INVEST in Greek ENERGY VACUUM since Azerbaijan has NO OIL in short time...ANATOLIANISM

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            ANATOLIANISM? lol, What else will happen to the Armenian Highlands while mount Ararat awaits its rightful owner and then and only then it will reveal secrets that will shake the world/religion.
            B0zkurt Hunter

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Russia gearing up to be first world power to insert ground forces into Syria


              DEBKA



              Despite strong denials from Moscow, Russian airborne troops are preparing to land in Syria to fight Islamic State forces. The surprise attack on Monday, Aug. 31, by ISIS forces on the Qadam district of southern Damascus, in which they took over parts of the district - and brought ISIS forces the closest that any Syrian anti-Assad group has ever been to the center of the Syrian capital - is expected to accelerate the Russian military intervention.
              Moscow is certainly not ready to endanger the position of President Bashar Assad or his rule in Damascus, and views it as a red line that cannot be crossed. If Russia intervenes militarily in this way, Russia will be the first country from outside the Middle East to send ground forces into the Syrian civil war.
              DEBKAfile’s military sources report that discussions by the Russo-Syrian Military Commission, which was established last month in Moscow to coordinate the intervention, accelerated during the last few days.
              Our intelligence sources point out that the concerted activities of the commission are taking place amid the nearly complete paralysis of the US Central Command-Forward-Jordan (CCFJ), where operations against the rebels in southern Syria, including those holding positions across from Israel’s Golan, are coordinated. Officers from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel are attached to the CCFJ.
              Most of the operations of the CCFJ have been halted due to a conflict that erupted between the Syrian rebels and the U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM. The US military is opposed to the rebels cooperating with Al-Qaeda-linked groups, such as the Al-Nusra front, while the rebels claim that this cannot be avoided fir they are to defeat the forces of Bashar Assad and Hizballah.
              The paralysis of the CCFJ is spurring the Russians to try to show that their “central command” for Syria is operating without any difficulties.
              In recent weeks, the Russians have taken four military steps related to Syria:
              1. On Aug. 18, six of Russia’s advanced MIG-31 Foxhound interceptor aircraft landed at the Syrian Air Force’s Mezze Airbase, which is the military section of Damascus international airport. After the fighters landed, they were immediately followed by giant Russian Antonov AN-124 Condor cargo planes carrying 1,000 of Russia’s 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missiles.
              The advanced jets are intended to serve as air support for the Russian units that arrive in Syria.
              2. Before the Russian planes landed in Damascus, Moscow reached an agreement with Washington for the removal of NATO’s Patriot missile batteries from Turkey. The removal was carried out gradually during the month of August, thus preventing the possibility that NATO Patriot missiles could hit Russian fighters carrying out operations in Syrian airspace.
              3. During the last week of August, a large number of Russian troops, mostly logistical teams whose job is to lay the groundwork for the arrival of the combat units, arrived in Syria. The troops were seen in Damascus and in Jablah district of Lattakia province, where the Russian forces are building a military base.
              4. Our intelligence sources also report that Moscow has started to supply Damascus with satellite imagery of the ground situation on the different fronts.
              DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that all of these preparatory steps by Moscow for the introduction of ground forces are being carried out in coordination with Washington and Tehran.
              The more that the three capitals tighten their coordination in support of Assad, the sooner the Russian intervention is expected to take place.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
                Russia gearing up to be first world power to insert ground forces into Syria


                DEBKA



                Despite strong denials from Moscow, Russian airborne troops are preparing to land in Syria to fight Islamic State forces. The surprise attack on Monday, Aug. 31, by ISIS forces on the Qadam district of southern Damascus, in which they took over parts of the district - and brought ISIS forces the closest that any Syrian anti-Assad group has ever been to the center of the Syrian capital - is expected to accelerate the Russian military intervention.
                Moscow is certainly not ready to endanger the position of President Bashar Assad or his rule in Damascus, and views it as a red line that cannot be crossed. If Russia intervenes militarily in this way, Russia will be the first country from outside the Middle East to send ground forces into the Syrian civil war.
                DEBKAfile’s military sources report that discussions by the Russo-Syrian Military Commission, which was established last month in Moscow to coordinate the intervention, accelerated during the last few days.
                Our intelligence sources point out that the concerted activities of the commission are taking place amid the nearly complete paralysis of the US Central Command-Forward-Jordan (CCFJ), where operations against the rebels in southern Syria, including those holding positions across from Israel’s Golan, are coordinated. Officers from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel are attached to the CCFJ.
                Most of the operations of the CCFJ have been halted due to a conflict that erupted between the Syrian rebels and the U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM. The US military is opposed to the rebels cooperating with Al-Qaeda-linked groups, such as the Al-Nusra front, while the rebels claim that this cannot be avoided fir they are to defeat the forces of Bashar Assad and Hizballah.
                The paralysis of the CCFJ is spurring the Russians to try to show that their “central command” for Syria is operating without any difficulties.
                In recent weeks, the Russians have taken four military steps related to Syria:
                1. On Aug. 18, six of Russia’s advanced MIG-31 Foxhound interceptor aircraft landed at the Syrian Air Force’s Mezze Airbase, which is the military section of Damascus international airport. After the fighters landed, they were immediately followed by giant Russian Antonov AN-124 Condor cargo planes carrying 1,000 of Russia’s 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missiles.
                The advanced jets are intended to serve as air support for the Russian units that arrive in Syria.
                2. Before the Russian planes landed in Damascus, Moscow reached an agreement with Washington for the removal of NATO’s Patriot missile batteries from Turkey. The removal was carried out gradually during the month of August, thus preventing the possibility that NATO Patriot missiles could hit Russian fighters carrying out operations in Syrian airspace.
                3. During the last week of August, a large number of Russian troops, mostly logistical teams whose job is to lay the groundwork for the arrival of the combat units, arrived in Syria. The troops were seen in Damascus and in Jablah district of Lattakia province, where the Russian forces are building a military base.
                4. Our intelligence sources also report that Moscow has started to supply Damascus with satellite imagery of the ground situation on the different fronts.
                DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that all of these preparatory steps by Moscow for the introduction of ground forces are being carried out in coordination with Washington and Tehran.
                The more that the three capitals tighten their coordination in support of Assad, the sooner the Russian intervention is expected to take place.
                'No Russian jets sent to Syria' - military source on 'expeditionary force' report

                http://www.rt.com/news/314010-syria-russia-planes-isis/

                No Russian jets were deployed to Syria in order to launch attacks against Islamic State militants (IS, formerly ISIS, ISIL) and Syrian rebels, a military source told RT, dismissing reports in Israeli media.

                "There has been no redeployment of Russian combat aircraft to the Syrian Arab Republic,” the source told RT on Tuesday. “The Russian Air Force is at its permanent bases and carrying out normal troop training and combat duty.”

                On Monday, the Israeli news site Ynet News cited Western diplomats as saying that a Russian “expeditionary force” has arrived in Syria to set up camp at a government airbase near Damascus in order to lead an offensive against IS militants and rebel-aligned targets.

                The report added that “thousands of Russian military personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisers, instructors, logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection division, and pilots who will operate the aircraft.”

                The report’s author, Alex Fishman, who was contacted by RT, refused to comment on the legitimacy of his source.

                “…I am not talking about my sources, sorry,” he said. “I’m not publishing something without a legitimate source. I’ve been working for the last 40 years in the military field. So you can understand that it’s a very,very legitimate source.”

                Moscow has denied plans to station troops in Syria. On August 4, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the involvement of Russian military in the Syrian conflict “is not on the agenda.” ....... http://www.rt.com/news/314010-syria-russia-planes-isis/
                Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
                  AZERBAIJAN'S NIMBLE NATIONAL STRATEGY
                  STRATFOR
                  Aug 31 2015


                  https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/az...ional-strategy
                  Reads like a refined Azebaijani propaganda piece. No mention of the full blown totalitarian dictatorship that is the ruling "government". I don't understand what is this continuous mention of playing an important role in energy. Can these people who right these articles not do basic math, or they just not have access to basic data? Oil is running out and they are close to selling it at a loss anyway. These prices are projected to last through 2017. The oh so major gas increase in 2018-19 is supposed to increased production by about 25% from what it is now, which is negligible.
                  <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Originally posted by Mher View Post
                    Reads like a refined Azebaijani propaganda piece. No mention of the full blown totalitarian dictatorship that is the ruling "government". I don't understand what is this continuous mention of playing an important role in energy. Can these people who right these articles not do basic math, or they just not have access to basic data? Oil is running out and they are close to selling it at a loss anyway. These prices are projected to last through 2017. The oh so major gas increase in 2018-19 is supposed to increased production by about 25% from what it is now, which is negligible.


                    It is an Azeri financed propaganda. Pay and publish in well known portal abroad and then herald it for weeks internally as proof to own people for rulers benefit.
                    I doubt that any oil related entity in world does not know what really are the prospects in Azerbaijan.
                    Unless mr aliev and his stuff start farting gas by millions of cubic meters daily, Azerbaijan is one of many small places in world that has some but that won't make a big difference.
                    Europ's energy needs... Azerbaijan has overplayed it's energy card for long enough. Maybe it makes a big difference internally, but worldwide bubble is bursting.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Originally posted by Mher View Post
                      Reads like a refined Azebaijani propaganda piece. No mention of the full blown totalitarian dictatorship that is the ruling "government". I don't understand what is this continuous mention of playing an important role in energy. Can these people who right these articles not do basic math, or they just not have access to basic data? Oil is running out and they are close to selling it at a loss anyway. These prices are projected to last through 2017. The oh so major gas increase in 2018-19 is supposed to increased production by about 25% from what it is now, which is negligible.
                      Yusuf Çınar , he is turk my dear . thats why he promotes and writes such xxxx articles .
                      You can tell whether a man is clever by his answers. You can tell whether a man is wise by his questions.

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