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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Զորահանդեսի մեկ այլ՝ կարեւոր անակնկալ

    ՀԱԿՈԲ ԲԱԴԱԼՅԱՆ, Մեկնաբան
    22 Սեպտեմբերի 2016,


    Հայաստանի անկախության 25-ամյակի առիթով կազմակերպված զորահանդեսը հասկանալիորեն արժանացավ հանրության մեծ ու առանձնահատուկ ուշադրությանը, ինչը պայմանավորված էր նաեւ ընթացիկ ռազմա-քաղաքական իրավիճակի մի շարք առանձնահատկություններով, որոնց ելակետը ապրիլի պատերազմն էր:

    Ուշադրության առանցքում իհարկե սպառազինությունն էր, ցուցադրվող նոր զինատեսակները, իսկ «կիզակետում»՝ Իսկանդերը:

    Հանրային ուշադրության էին արժանանում նաեւ այլ տարրեր, որոնցից նաեւ անկախության առիթով անցկացվող զորահանդեսում հերթական անգամ ռուսական զորախմբի եւ դրոշի առկայությունը:
    Ընդ որում, հանրության մի զգալի մասի համար այդ հանգամանքը ոչ թե «մանրուք» էր, այլ պետական արժանապատվությանն առնչվող կարեւոր թե բարոյահոգեբանական, թե քաղաքական ասպեկտ, առավել եւս ապրիլի պատերազմից հետո, երբ Ռուսաստանը ցինիկ պահվածք դրսեւորեց Հայաստանի հանդեպ՝ աջակցելով Ադրբեջանին:

    Ակներեւ էր, որ անկախության զորահանդեսը, լինելով Հայաստանի ռազմա-քաղաքական ուղերձը Ադրբեջանին, նաեւ որոշակի «հաշվետվությունը» սեփական հանրությանը՝ իշխանության հետապրիլյան «ռեաբիլիտացիայի իմաստով», ուներ նաեւ Ռուսաստանը «ռեաբիլիտացնելու» նպատակ, ցույց տալով, որ Մոսկվան արդիական սպառազինություն է մատակարարել Հայաստանին եւ վերականգնել հավասարակշռությունը, ավելին՝ տվել է նաեւ «սրբության սրբոց» Իսկանդեր:

    Դժվար է ասել, թե հանրության վրա ինչ տպավորություն է թողել այդ ամենը Ռուսաստանի դերի գնահատման իմաստով, որի իրապաշտ վերագնահատումը եղավ ապրիլից հետո: Ներկայում Հայաստանի հասարակությունը համարում է Ռուսաստանի «մեղքը» քավվա՞ծ, թե համարում է, որ ապրիլին դիմադրելով տարիներ շարունակ հասունացված ռուս-ադրբեջանական համատեղ գրոհին եւ կոտրելով Ադրբեջանի ծրագիրը, հայկական բանակը տարածաշրջանում ստեղծեց նոր ռազմա-քաղաքական իրավիճակ եւ Ռուսաստանին պարզապես ստիպեց այդ իրավիճակում ուղղակի «հիշել» նաեւ Հայաստանի շահի մասին:

    Եթե Հայաստանի հանրության մոտ կա համոզում, թե Ռուսաստանն ուղղակի «ուղղվեց» եւ վերականգնեց իր «փրկչի» կամ «միակ դաշնակցի» դիրքը, ապա այստեղ կա խնդիր եւ զորահանդեսը ակամայից բացահայտել է հանրային գիտակցության մասով Հայաստանի անպաշտպանությունը:

    Որովետեւ այդպիսի համոզումը կնշանակի հետքայլ, նահանջ, հեռացում իրապաշտ վերագնահատումից: Միաժամանակ, կնշանակի նաեւ ապրիլին Հայաստանի զինված ուժերի ռազմա-քաղաքական գործողությունների «ուրացում» եւ «նսեմացում», որովհետեւ գերազանցապես հայ զինվորի, սպայի եւ կամավորի կյանքի ու սխրանքի գնով է ապրիլից հետո ձեւավորվել նոր իրավիճակը, որը Մոսկվային դրել է մի վիճակում, երբ առնվազն կարճաժամկետ ու միջնաժամկետ առումով Մոսկվան հարկադրված է տարածաշրջանում իր գոյությունը պահել Հայաստանի շահը շատ թե քիչ հաշվի առնելու շնորհիվ:
    Դա դաշնակցային պահվածք չէ, այլ հարկադիր գործողություն, որը ապրիլի պատերազմի իր գործողությամբ թելադրել է Հայաստանի զինուժը:

    Եվ այդ հանգամանքն առավել եւս արդիական էր դարձրել զորահանդեսին «ռուսական դրոշի» վերաբերյալ հարցադրումը:

    Այդ ամենով հանդերձ, զորահանդեսում այդ մասով առկա էր հետաքրքիր մի դրվագ, քողարկված մի «հաղորդագրություն», որ «կոդավորված» էր կազմակերպական նրբերանգներում՝ կամա, թե ակամա:

    Ռուսական դրոշի թեման հրատապ էր դեռեւս 2011 թվականից՝ անկախության 20-ամյակի առիթով կազմակերպված զորահանդեսին:

    25-ամյակի զորահանդեսին կար ուշագրավ մի տարբերություն: Զորահանդեսին հայկական խաղաղապահ զորագնդի մասնակցությունն ուղեկցվում էր այն երկրների դրոշներով, որոնց հետ Հայաստանը գործակցում է ՆԱՏՕ եւ միջազգային այլ խաղաղապահ առաքելությունների շրջանակում:

    Փաստացի, Հայաստանի անկախության տոնի առիթով զորահանդեսին ռուսական դրոշն այս անգամ «մենակ» չէր մնացել եւ փաստորեն «ծածկվել» էր պետությունների դրոշներով, որոնց հետ Հայաստանը գործակցում է իր եւ միջազգային անվտանգության հարցերում:

    Կարեւորը տվյալ պարագայում այն է, որ դրոշների այդօրինակ «ներմուծումով» փաստացի որոշակիորեն իմաստափոխվել է նաեւ ռուսական դրոշի առկայությունը, քանի որ մյուս պետությունների դրոշները զորահանդեսում ընդհանրապես այլ (այդ թվում ռուսական դրոշների առկայությանը) տվել են գործընկերային իմաստ՝ որպես Հայաստանի զինված ուժերի միջազգային կարգավիճակի, տեղի ու դերի ընդգծում, միջազգային սուբյեկտության դսեւորում:

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Turkey does not recognize Russian elections in Crimea

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by armnuke View Post
        Turkey does not recognize Russian elections in Crimea

        http://conflict-watch.com/2016/09/23...ons-in-crimea/
        Give the hominoid enough rope, they will hang themselves.
        Lip service to the west and nothing more. Russia doesn't give a fk. Nobody else cares what the hominoid terk thinks.
        Crimea is now permanently Russian territory. Any other talk by anyone else is cheap talk and nothing more.
        Russia is well aware who is playing games and who is sincere.
        Let the hominoid monkey talk. All they do is bare their arse.

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Well that' just great Erdo

          Erdogan Doesn’t Care at All If Turkey Gets Downgraded to Junk

          General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            Originally posted by Joseph View Post
            Well that' just great Erdo

            Erdogan Doesn’t Care at All If Turkey Gets Downgraded to Junk

            http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...graded-to-junk
            Erdogan thinks he can walk on water.

            At times he has managed that by blackmail and lies ( politically)

            I hope the time will come when gravity will win .... when the water he is walking on is deep ..... very deep ...

            .
            Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
            Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
            Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Originally posted by Joseph View Post
              Well that' just great Erdo

              Erdogan Doesn’t Care at All If Turkey Gets Downgraded to Junk

              http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...graded-to-junk
              This is fantastic. Think about all the money Aliyev pumped into Turkey. Now those assets are also sh*t! Jahaha

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Ha'aretz, Israel
                Sept 23 2016



                Jewish Right-wing Extremists Riot During Performance by Christian
                Choir in Jerusalem



                Two members of anti-assimilationist group Lehava arrested, including
                leader Bentzi Gopstein, after trouble flares during song by Armenian
                Church Choir


                By Nir Hasson | Sep. 23, 2016 | 3:45 PM

                Right-wing extremists rioted during a performance by a Christian choir
                at a contemporary arts event in Jerusalem on Thursday. The police
                arrested two members of the anti-assimilationist Lehava organization,
                including its leader, Bentzi Gopstein.

                Dozens of extremists infiltrated the Manofim contemporary arts
                festival event, being held in the Clal Center mall, and clashed with
                attendees. The event was the finale of Manofim’s ninth annual
                festival. Organizers had wanted to take advantage of the circular
                shape of the Clal Center interior, one of the oldest commercial
                centers in Jerusalem.

                Various choirs performed on the ground floor during the evening while
                hundreds of people stood on the floors above to watch.

                The right-wing demonstration erupted during the performance by the
                city’s Armenian Church Choir. An eyewitness said the disruption
                started when the choir began singing, and that it took a long time for
                the police to arrive.

                Meanwhile, Gopstein and other activists allegedly shouted at the
                choir, “Christians!”, “Go to Syria!”, “Jew murderers!” and more. The
                choir was forced to stop performing after one song.

                Following the event, security guards and police blocked the entrance,
                and several Lehava members gathered in front of the building and
                protested that they were not allowed to go inside.

                “Two right-wing activists were arrested after they refused to obey
                police orders, and continued to interfere with the event and disrupted
                the public order with shouts and confrontations with police,” the
                police said in a statement.

                Right-wing activist Itamar Ben-Gvir claimed that officers hit Gopstein
                in the head during the clash, adding that Gopstein needed medical
                treatment for his injuries.

                Rinat Edelstein and Lee He Shulov, the directors-curators of the
                Manofim festival, said in a statement: “We are still shocked and
                pained about the violent and vulgar behavior of Lehava, headed by
                Bentzi Gopstein. We wish to express our solidarity with the Armenian
                choir that was forced to leave the event because of Lehava’s violence
                against them.

                “We were shocked to find that in Israel in 2016, such a violent
                organization is not outlawed and its members are not sitting in jail,”
                they added.

                Rabbi Noa Sattath, executive director of the Israel Religious Action
                Center, which organized a counterdemonstration against Lehava on
                Thursday evening, said, “The fact that Lehava thugs do not rest for a
                moment, and that while hundreds of citizens — Jews and Arabs —
                demonstrate against them, they choose to violently interrupt religious
                Christian activities, is clear proof that the head of this criminal
                organization, Bentzi Gopstein, should be prosecuted as quickly as
                possible, before more blood is spilled in the capital.”

                Hayastan or Bust.

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Main interesting events on the Levantine front, while this forum was cut off :
                  - At first, seemingly the US and Russia made a deal of 'super-intendants', bypassing their respective regional and local parteners. The main risk for us being a much larger deal including Kavkaz and Tchernomorya.??
                  - Turkey and Russia are back in bed, seemingly as deep as before Su 24, even more on some aspects, if we take into account the amazing shift of Erdokan regarding Assad. The main trade/exchange seemingly being Kurdish interets in Rojava against turkish sponsored islamists in Haleb.
                  - In full 'truce' , the US sophisticated blatant attack against the strategic Deir Zor montain top, killing more than 60 Syrian soldiers, and helping a seemingly coordinated attack by Daesh to capture that same post. This loss is very harsh for the already beseiged and undermanned Deir Zor garrison. Specially if we put in light the fact that the position dominates the military airfield of Deir Zor, where dozens of syrian old jets are doomed by now + the US directly and the cover of its Rojava croonies expelled the Syrian airforce remnants from Hasake poket to Deir Zor weeks before.... : according some sources the US strategy being the fall of Deir Zor, insuring the liberation of Mosul from Daesh not permitting a Shiite bridge via Palmyra and Deir Zor...
                  - The cleansing effort of Islamists from Haleb by the Russo/Syrian push towards a Turkish pocket in Jarablus/Al Bab , in full ccordinated move according izraeli sources, against the US official wish ??
                  - According some sources the arrival on the theater of russian ground troops, 3000, in South of Haleb front?? For what exactly??
                  - Nevertheless, things are not going well for Syria on Northern Hama front, where the islamist are advancing in Allawite terrain by now, ...
                  - Izrael is in full and open cooperation with Kayida islamists on Golan front...

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    From Debka:
                    ==================


                    In scores of air raids launched early Friday, Sept. 23, Syrian and Russian bombers pulverized Syrian rebel strongholds in eastern Aleppo, while, on the ground, Syrian military, Hizballah and pro-Iranian Shiite militia forces hammered those targets in one of the most destructive onslaughts yet seen in the nearly six-year Syrian civil war.
                    Cries of “annihilation!” came from rebel commanders, as they came under intense aerial bombardment, combined with a fierce ground assault, backed by heavy Russian T-90 tanks and artillery. Dozens of people including children are trapped in the rubble
                    This offensive, say DEBKAfile’s military sources, has the twin objective of rooting the rebels out of eastern Aleppo and also driving out the app. 120,000 Sunni Syrian inhabitants penned in shrinking rebel-held neighborhoods, amid dire shortages of food, medicines, water and basic supplies.
                    The Russian command in Syria and the Syrian General Staff are working to a tactical plan, our sources disclose, that is intended to push the Sunni civilian population as well as the rebels out of the city towards the Turkish border. If this plan plays out - it is still being coordinated with Turkish military and air force chiefs – then the refugees displaced from Aleppo will wind up in a security zone, which the Turkish army is busy carving out, living under Russian-Turkish rule in northern Syria.
                    DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources add that if this master plan is realized in northern Syria, it will soon be transferred to the south as a template for the Russian-Syrian military tactics in areas abutting Israel.
                    On Thursday, Sept. 22, DEBKA disclosed that the Russians, the Syrian army, Hizballah and pro-Iranian militias are concentrating strength around Quneitra on the Syrian Golan, ready for a massive offensive to obliterate the Syrian rebel presence near the borders of Israel and Jordan.
                    This region too is largely populated by Sunni Muslims, a community of around 120,000, like that of eastern Aleppo. However, here, the plan is to drive the civilian population onto the Israeli and Jordanian borders. The IDF and Jordanian army are bracing to handle the refugee crisis, which Russia and Syria are about to manufacture.
                    For the background leading up to these events, read DEBKAfile’s earlier report of Thursday, Sept. 22.
                    Six steps by the Assad regime in the last few days, reported by DEBKAfile’s military sources, point to preparations for a massive Syrian army offensive, backed by Hizballah, pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Iranian Rev Guards officers, for clearing the strong rebel presence out of the Syrian Golan.:
                    1. The arrival in the Quneitra area of the armored brigades of the 4th Division, which is the elite unit of President Bashar Assad’s armed forces and reserved strictly for battles of the highest strategic importance for the regime.
                    2. The Syrian brigades came with advanced Russian T-90 tanks that were detached from the Aleppo front in the north. Those tanks will be deployed for the first time just 8km from the Israeli border.
                    3. Hizballah too has contributed its elite fighting unit, the Radwan Force, which has arrived in Quneitra in the last few days to take part in the coming offensive.
                    4. Also concentrated there are pro-Iranian Shiite militia forces, under the direct command of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
                    5. The Syrian president Assad took the unusual step of appointing a senior Druze officer, Brig. Gen. Osama Zhar a-din, as the Golan front’s new commander. The motive behind this is an attempt to drive a wedge between the IDF troops posted on the Israeli Golan and the Druze inhabiting the local villages, while also sowing discord between the Druze serving in Israel’s armed forces and their Jewish brothers-in-arms.
                    According to our military sources, the current Syrian and allied lineup just across the border from Israel is not deployed this time to attack Israel, but for a clean sweep of all the Syrian rebel forces holding sectors of the Golan-Israeli border.
                    The pro-Assad forces are expected to weigh in with artillery shelling and heavy aerial bombing to force the local Syrian population of 140,000 to 160,000 to flee. This scenario would confront Israel and the IDF with the possibility of tens of thousands of Syrian refugees clamoring for sanctuary.
                    6. Our intelligence sources add that Iran, Hizballah and Syria have decided to henceforth hit back at any Israeli air or artillery strikes against a Syrian target on the Golan. This was decided at high-level three-way consultations in Damascus on Sept. 15, two days after Israeli aircraft attacked the headquarters of Syria’s 90th Brigade at al-Shaar, near Quneitra, in reprisal for the Syrian shells that strayed across the border.
                    Assad informed his allies that he will not put up with any more Israeli attacks on Syrian regional commands.

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                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Turkey wants to join U.S.-led operation against Islamic State in Raqqa – Erdogan
                      By News Desk -
                      25/09/2016
                      Almasdar News

                      ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey wants to join the United States in a military operation to push Islamic State from its Syrian stronghold of Raqqa, as long as it excludes Kurdish rebel forces, President Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying on Sunday.

                      NATO member Turkey, part of the U.S.-led coalition battling Islamic State, is backing Arab and Turkmen Syrian rebels who seized the Syrian town of Jarablus from the jihadists a month ago in an operation it has dubbed "Euphrates Shield."

                      But Ankara is wary of the U.S.-allied People's Protection Units (YPG) and its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), Syrian Kurdish groups it sees as extensions of Kurdish militants who have waged a three-decade insurgency on its own soil.

                      "Our foreign minister and military authorities are in talks with the United States discussing the matter of Raqqa. We shared with them our conditions," Erdogan told reporters on his plane returning from New York, where he spoke at the annual United Nations general assembly and met U.S. Vice President Joe Biden.

                      "Taking a joint step is important for us," he said, according to private broadcaster NTV. "If the United States does not insert the PYD and YPG into this business, we can fight this battle with the United States."

                      Turkey has focused much of its energy during the six-year war in neighbouring Syria on its desire to oust President Bashar al-Assad rather than fighting Islamic State. Its recent push into northern Syria came after steady advances by the YPG.

                      But Erdogan said Turkey had exhibited "the most effective struggle against Islamic State, despite the disinformation."

                      READ Britain, France, US seek urgent Security Council meeting on Syria
                      Senior U.S. military officials said last week they were considering arming Syrian Kurdish fighters and acknowledged the difficulty of balancing this with the relationship with Ankara.

                      Erdogan said he asked Biden about weapons shipments to Kurds and that the vice president said he was not aware of any such deliveries.

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