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Wikileaks

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  • #11
    Re: Wikileaks

    C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000517

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SNEC (MANN) AND EUR/CACEN
    EUCOM FOR POLAD SNELL

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2015
    TAGS: PREL PARM MARR AM AJ
    SUBJECT: ARMENIAN DEFMIN ON POW'S, CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS


    Classified By: Ambassador John Evans for reason 1.4 (b), (d)

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sargsian told the
    Ambassador that Azerbaijan was to blame for the recent
    increase in cease-fire violations on the line of contact with
    Azerbaijan. If the International Community was now concerned
    about the effect of violations on the negotiation process,
    then Azerbaijan had achieved its goal. Azerbaijan sought to
    encourage the negotiators to press Armenia for concessions in
    order to assuage Azerbaijan's hard-liners, Sargsian claimed.
    Sargsian said that the incidents were provoked by Azerbaijani
    forces attempting to improve their tactical position at
    points along the line; such tactical shifts were not in
    Armenia's interest, which would be best served by maintaining
    the status quo. Sargsian confirmed that Armenia continued to
    hold prisoner three Azerbaijani soldiers who had wandered
    across the line of contact in February. The three would be
    returned, but the delay in handing them over was intended as
    a response to Azerbaijan's delay in returning Armenian
    prisoners in January. End Summary.

    Delay in POW returns is tit-for-tat
    -----------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) In a March 21 meeting with Sargsian, the Ambassador
    pressed Armenia to move forward with the release of three
    Azerbaijani soldiers captured along the line of contact on
    February 15. Sargsian confirmed that he had been in contact
    with OSCE Special Rep Andrzej Kasprzyk and that Armenia would
    return the prisoners, but he did not agree to a specific
    date. He said that for the past three years, Armenia had
    "without condition" returned captured Azerbaijani soldiers
    promptly, but this practice was not reciprocal. Sargsian was
    bitter about Azerbaijan's long delay in returning three
    Armenian soldiers. He said that Azerbaijan had held the
    soldiers for two months and 20 days; it was 15 days before
    the GOAJ even admitted to holding the soldiers, although the
    GOAM had solid intellligence that the GOAJ knew about the
    capture right away. Sarsian said Azerbaijan added insult to
    injury by returning the prisoners on January 28, Armenia's
    Army Day.

    Cease-Fire Violations
    ---------------------

    ¶3. (C) The Ambassador raised the issue of the recent
    increase in cease-fire violations in N-K and expressed
    concern that they could adversely affect the productive
    course of negotiations supported by the Minsk Group
    co-chairs. Sargsian said that "if the International
    Community has the view that there is an increased likelihood
    of a resumption of hostilities and if this view will affect
    how you approach negotiations, then Azerbaijan has achieved
    its purpose in instigating these cease-fire violations."
    Sargsian said Azerbaijan had two goals as it continues to
    provoke cease-fire violations. First, he explained, was a
    message to the Minsk Group. Negotiators are intended to draw
    the conclusion that unless talks produce a prompt result
    which is favorable to Azerbaijan, a resumption of open
    hostilities could be imminent. Second, Azerbaijan sought to
    improve its tactical position and several places along the
    Line of Contact. When Azerbaijani movements make Armenian
    positions vulnerable, Armenian troops must engage, Sargsian
    insisted.

    ¶4. (C) Sargsian said that the current tactical situation was
    similar to that of 2001. At that time, he continued, Armenia
    had asked Minsk Group co-chairs to use their satellite
    surveillance capability to demonstrate which side was
    responsible for troop movements and cease-fire violations; he
    repeated that request to the Ambassador.
    "Calm and the
    status quo are in Armenia's interest," said Sargsian, "we do
    not seek a conflict."

    ¶5. (C) The Ambassador said that that cease-fire violations
    were not in anyone's interest and urged Armenia to show
    restraint. Sargsian expressed serious concern about what he
    viewed as new level of bellicose Azerbaijani rhetoric,
    including on the part of President Aliyev.
    EVANS

    Comment


    • #12
      Re: Wikileaks

      S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000846

      SIPDIS

      DEPT FOR DS/CR/VF

      E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2015
      TAGS: KFRD PGOV ASEC TU AM RU
      SUBJECT: RUSSIAN OFFICIAL COMMENTS ON ARMENIAN BORDER
      SECURITY

      Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d)

      ¶1. (C) A Russian Border Guard (RBG) official posted in
      Armenia contends that the border with Turkey is porous and
      that locals easily cross at will. On the margins of a
      routine meeting to discuss consular fraud prevention, he told
      us he was concerned about the possibility of corruption at
      the airport and emerging fraud trends among Iranian
      travelers. End Summary.

      -------------------------
      POROUS BORDER WITH TURKEY
      -------------------------

      ¶2. (C) The RBG monitors Armenia,s 268 km land border with
      Turkey as well as Armenia's international border with Iran.
      On the Turkish border, RBG and Armenian Border Security
      personnel jointly occupy guard towers that are located
      approximately every 2 kilometers along the border. As of
      mid-March 2005, RBG Major Vitali Borodkin (please protect)
      asserted that, despite RBG efforts, the Armenian/Turkish
      border was porous and that ethnic Kurdish farmers were able
      to transport livestock back and forth across the border. He
      believes that while it is probable that RBG personnel are
      being bribed to allow passage, he thinks that it is also
      possible to cross the Armenian/Turkish border undetected.

      ¶3. (S) Borodkin stated that in the early 1990s, he heard
      rumors that the Kongra Gel (KGK) had sent people across the
      Armenian/Turkish border. He stated that while he had no
      specific information that this was still continuing, he
      believed that KGK personnel may still covertly cross the
      border to seek temporary refuge from Turkish authorities.

      -------------------------
      CORRUPTION AT THE AIRPORT
      -------------------------

      ¶4. (SBU) Borodkin stated that travelers offer RBG personnel
      bribes daily at Zvartnots Armenian National Airport to
      overlook photo-substituted or fraudulently issued travel
      documents. He stated that one common service for petty
      bribery is to backdate entry stamps for travelers who have
      overstayed on U.S. visas and were returning to Yerevan.
      Borodkin candidly admitted that while he does his best to
      monitor and prevent passport control personnel from taking
      bribes, it was most likely a common practice. (Comment: The
      number of backdated stamps among visa applicants at CONS
      Yerevan has dropped since 2002. We continue, however, to
      identify this fraud on a routine basis. End Comment.)

      ¶5. (SBU) Borodkin said that the flight from Yerevan to Moscow
      to Los Angeles is notorious for Armenian nationals offering
      bribes to RBG personnel. According to Borodkin, travelers
      believe that if they can successfully board this flight, even
      if US immigration officials eventually stopped them, they
      could still apply for asylum and enter the US.

      ¶6. (SBU) Borodkin stated that the RBG arrested approximately
      100 individuals who used fake, stolen or borrowed travel
      documents in 2004. The majority of the individuals were
      arrested at the Zvartnots Airport. He could only speculate
      how many evaded arrest by using legitimate "borrowed" travel
      documents, fraudulent documents, or by bribing RBG personnel.


      ------------------
      IRANIAN CONNECTION
      ------------------

      ¶7. (C) Borodkin suspects that Iranian nationals may be using
      photo-substituted U.S. and European travel documents as a way
      to travel to the U.S. and/or Europe. He believes that one
      common technique would be for the U.S.-based Iranian Diaspora
      to send legitimate asylum documents to Armenia. Travelers in
      Armenia either photo-substitute these documents or use
      unaltered versions while traveling as imposters. Borodkin
      added that members of the Iranian Diaspora in Germany might
      be active in sending legitimate travel documents to Armenia
      for Iranians to travel and/or immigrate to Germany.

      ¶8. (C) Borodkin noted that at the Armenian town of Meghri,
      the major point of entry on the Armenian/Iranian border, RBG
      personnel have noticed many suspicious travel documents used
      by Iranian nationals to enter into Armenia. While he had no
      specifics, Borodkin observed that many of these documents
      appear to be issued in the same office, or printed by using
      similar techniques.

      ¶9. (C) Borodkin stated that he has reliable contacts within
      the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). He stated that
      the FSB notifies the RBG in Armenia about madrases or
      equivalent religious schools in the region, and, when
      students graduate, their travel destinations. While Borodkin
      was not worried about Muslim radicals traveling to Armenia,
      he is concerned about the possibility of Armenia becoming a
      corridor to the North Caucasus or Europe in the future.

      -------
      Comment
      -------

      ¶10. (C) Borodkin,s comments are likely exaggerated in order
      to convince us that Armenia would not be able to manage its
      border without the RBG. However, his insights show that the
      RBG is aware of Armenia,s problematic border control issues
      and their implications for the region. While some of our
      security assistance programs preclude participation by
      Russian officials, we see cooperation with the RBG on fraud
      prevention as very much in the USG's interest and will
      continue our practice of including them in appropriate events.
      EVANS

      Comment


      • #13
        Re: Wikileaks

        C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 001717

        SIPDIS

        SENSITIVE

        DEPT FOR EUR/SNEC, EUR/CACEN, AND EUR FRONT OFFICE

        E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015
        TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS AJ AM OSCE
        SUBJECT: DETAILS OF SHOOTING INCIDENT ON LINE OF CONTACT

        REF: BAKU 1415

        Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4(b,d).

        -------
        SUMMARY
        -------

        ¶1. (C) The September 20 shooting incident on the line of
        contact seemed clearly directed to disrupt N-K negotiations
        and will certainly be raised at the OSCE Permanent Council.
        While there is no way to determine which side fired, the
        round -- which impacted about 20 meters from an international
        monitor -- came from the direction of Azeri lines. This was
        the message delivered by OSCE Monitor Peter Keay in a meeting
        with CDA on September 23. A confidential report signed by
        OSCE Special Rep Andrzej Kasprzyk of the shooting (text
        below) will be delivered in the coming days to the OSCE
        Permanent Council. Monitoring is suspended until Kasprzyk
        has an opportunity to raise the incident with both sides
        together with Minsk Group co-chairs. End Summary.

        --------------------------------------------- -----
        OSCE MONITOR CONFIRMS SEPTEMBER 20 SMALL ARMS FIRE
        --------------------------------------------- -----

        ¶2. (C) Peter Keay, a UK national member of the OSCE group
        led by Special Rep Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk, met with the
        CDA at the Embassy on September 23 and described events in
        detail. Keay took part in the monitoring of the Line of
        Contact (LOC) between N-K Armenian and Azerbaijani forces on
        September 20 and was the first monitor out of the trench on
        the N-K side. Amb. Kasprzyk was leading the party from the
        Azerbaijan side of the LOC. The trench lines were about 1300
        meters apart at the point of monitoring.

        ¶3. (C) The monitoring event had been proceeding according to
        standard procedure. Positive contact had been made with
        commanders of both sides and both sides provided assurances
        that there would be no incidents. Monitoring groups were in
        contact with hand-held radios. Keay emerged from the trench
        on the N-K side of the LOC with the local N-K forces
        commander. He could see Amb. Kasprzyk's monitoring party on
        the Azerbaijan side of the LOC and made positive contact as
        usual, by waving an OSCE flag. He was in discussion with the
        local N-K commander, who was directing his attention to new
        trenches extending toward the N-K lines from the Azerbaijan
        side when he saw a round impact the dust about 20 - 30 meters
        away from his position. He then heard the sound of a weapon
        discharge which he described as the distinctive sound of a
        7.62 mm Kalashnikov rifle.

        ¶4. (C) Keay said that although the round came from the
        direction of the Azerbaijan side, the trenches at that point
        of the LOC are so serpentine that it would be impossible to
        determine with certainty which side fired. He immediately
        returned to the trench on the N-K side and contacted Amb.
        Kasprzyk, who discontinued the monitoring event and issued a
        statement. (See para 6 below.)

        ¶5. (C) Keay said Amb Kasprzyk intends to raise the issue
        with both sides at an upcoming meeting of the Foreign
        Ministers together with the Minsk Group co-chairs. Keay
        passed us a copy of a confidential report prepared by the
        group which would be distributed in Vienna next week (see
        para 7 below). Keay speculated that while it is remotely
        possible that the round was fired by accident, it was most
        likely an attempt to "throw a spanner in the works of
        negotiations" just at a point where they appear most
        promising. He asserted that tension along the LoC seemed to
        be growing as the negotiators became more optimistic. "It's
        very, very tense right now," he said.

        --------------------------------------------- ---
        OSCE PRESS STATEMENT FOLLOWING SHOOTING INCIDENT
        --------------------------------------------- ---

        ¶6. (U) Begin text of Kasprzyk statement issued immediately
        after shooting incident:

        At approximately 1157 hrs during the course of the
        Monitoring, following security guarantees issued by both
        sides, after both monitoring teams were out of their trenches
        on the open ground and visual contact between them had been
        established, a single shot was heard by both teams. A field
        assistant participating on the territory controlled by
        Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) armed forces confirmed what appeared to
        be a bullet strike the ground 20-30 meters in front and
        slightly to the left of his position approximately one second
        prior to the report. The Monitoring party immediately took
        cover in the trenches.

        End Text

        --------------------------------------------- --------
        OSCE REPORT NO. 147 ON MONITORING THE LINE OF CONTACT
        --------------------------------------------- --------

        ¶7. (C) Begin text of Text of "official incident report."
        (Note internal paragraph markings and OSCE classification.)

        Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
        The Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office on
        the Conflict Dealt with by the OSCE Minsk Conference

        CONFIDENTIAL

        SIPDIS

        Report No. 147 on Monitoring on the Line of Contact 20
        September 2005

        1 Basic Data on the Monitoring

        1.1 Introductory remarks

        The Monitoring on the Line of Contact (LoC) was initiated by
        the Personal Representative (PR) of the Cia. The PR requested
        the Monitoring to be held in the southern part of the LoC on
        20 September 2005, in the vicinity of the village of
        Karakhanbeyli in Fizuli Region. The last Monitoring in this
        area took place on 01 June 2005 (MR 141) and on this exact
        spot on 23 November 2004 (MR 130). The aim of the Monitoring
        was to verify the current situation along this part of the
        LoC.

        1.2 Monitoring Requests and Security Guarantees

        On 12 September 2005, a Field Assistant, on behalf of the PR,
        presented a Monitoring Request to the Azerbaijani MFA. The
        Azerbaijani side responded positively on 19 September and
        offered security guarantees in their response. A
        corresponding request was presented to the Nagorno-Karabakh
        (NK) authorities on 13 September 2005. The NK side responded
        positively on 19 September and also offered security
        guarantees in their response.

        1.3 Place of the Monitoring

        The site of the Monitoring on the LOC was approximately 5 km
        north-east of the village of Karakhanbeyli.

        The positions of the Teams at the Monitoring site in the LOC
        were:

        Team No.1 (Azerbaijani side)
        Lat. N 39 degrees 38 minutes, Long. E 47 degrees 18 minutes
        (from map)

        Team No.2 (NK side)
        Lat. N 39 degrees 38 minutes, Long. E 47 degrees 17 minutes

        The Teams were approximately 1300m apart.

        1.4 Personnel

        Team No.1 (Azerbaijani side)

        OSCE Monitoring Team
        Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk (Poland), Personal Representative
        of the CiO
        Miroslav Vymetal, Field Assistant (Czech Republic)
        Maj Konstantinos Theodoropoulos HLPG, (Greece)

        Escort Personnel
        ¶O. Ismayil-Zade, MFA
        Capt R. Kerimov, MoD
        Lt Col A. Seyidov, regional commander Lt Col A. Aslamov,
        local commander

        Team No.2 (NK side)
        OSCE Monitoring Team
        Lt Col Imre Palatinus, Office Coordinator (Hungary)
        Peter Keay, Field Assistant (UK)

        ¶2. Detailed account of the Monitoring

        2.1 Course of the Monitoring

        The two Teams traveled in a total of five clearly marked OSCE
        vehicles, three on the NK and two on the Azerbaijani side.
        General visibility was good, up to 15 kilometres and weather
        conditions were good. After security guarantees for crossing
        open ground were given, the Teams moved to their covered
        positions. After further security guarantees for the
        Monitoring were exchanged, the Teams moved forward on foot to
        the Observation sites. Once both were in position they
        climbed out of the trenches with raised OSCE flags and
        established visual contact. The distance between Teams was
        1300m. Approximately four minutes after visual contact was
        established a single shot was heard on both sides (at a
        distance of 600-800 meters slightly to the left of the
        Observation site on the NK front lines). The Monitoring
        party immediately took cover in the trenches. A Field
        Assistant from Team 2 confirmed what appeared to be a bullet
        strike the ground 20-30 metres in front and slightly to the
        left of his position approximately one second prior to the
        report. Following VHF radio communication between the
        Teams, the decision to halt the Monitoring was taken. All
        personnel returned to their vehicles and left the area.

        Team 1

        Team 1 was given a briefing in Goradiz by the Head of the
        Local Executive and the regional and local military
        commanders. After the briefing, the two vehicles of Team 1,
        escorted by two vehicles from the Azerbaijani side, moved to
        a point approximately 3 km east of the Monitoring Site where
        they stopped to exchange security guarantees before crossing
        open ground and to confirm the exact locations for the
        Observation sites. Team 1 then traveled to a covered position
        at the Monitoring Site where further security guarantees for
        the Monitoring were exchanged. After this, Team 1 moved
        approximately 250 metres on foot to its Observation site, and
        with an OSCE flag raised climbed above ground out of the
        trenches, from where visual contact was established with Team
        ¶2. After a single shot was heard the Team moved back into the
        trenches.

        Team 2

        Team 2 met with the local military commanders on the road
        north of Fizuli and was given a briefing on the situation on
        the LOC. After the briefing, the three vehicles of Team 2,
        escorted by two vehicles from the NK side moved to a point
        approximately 2 km north of Karakhanbey Ii where they stopped
        to exchange security guarantees before crossing open ground
        and to confirm the exact locations for the Observation sites.
        Team 2 then traveled to a covered position at the Monitoring
        Site where further security guarantees for the Monitoring
        were exchanged. After this, Team 2 moved approximately 50
        metres on foot to its Observation site, and with an OSCE flag
        raised climbed above ground out of the trenches, from where
        visual contact was immediately established with Team 1. After
        a single shot was heard the Team moved back into the
        trenches. All members of the Team 2 were able to agree on
        the direction and approximate distance of the shot.

        2.2 Information obtained during Monitoring as stated by the
        respective Parties

        Team No.1 (Azerbaijani side)

        Cease-fire violations

        The regional commander confirmed information given by Head of
        the Local Executive that cease-fire violations are common and
        the local population close to the LOC lives under the
        permanent threat of shooting. He reported that 26 cease-fire
        violations, took place on this part of the LOC since the
        Monitoring on 1 June 2005. In some cases the Azerbaijani side
        opened returned fire. As a result of sniper fire one
        Azerbaijani soldier was reported to have been killed on 28
        July 2005. Another incident was reported to have taken place
        on 13 August when one soldier was killed while fetching water
        and another injured when trying to remove the body.

        Other Military Information

        The regional commander stated that the NK side is constantly
        improving its positions by building fortified positions at
        intervals of 300-350 metres. He stated that this is in order
        to improve control over the adjacent territory. Such
        positions were pointed out to the Team while moving to the
        Observation site. He also added that tracer rounds are used
        to set fire to dry grass in no-man's land and as a result the
        harvest close to the LOC is under threat.

        Mines

        No mine related incidents were reported in this sector. The
        regional commander stated that 12 mine explosions were heard
        during the fire in no-man's land on 1-2 September.

        Team No.2 (NK side):

        Cease-fire violations

        Team 2 was given a list of three cease-fire violations on the
        whole of the LOC since the last Monitoring on 08 September
        ¶2005. Two of the violations were said to have taken place in
        the Hadrut Sector and one in the Mardakert Agdere Sector. No
        injuries were reported.

        The local commander informed the Team that the situation on
        the LOC is relatively calm and stable, with a reduced number
        of reported cease-fire violations.

        Mines

        No mine incidents were reported on the NK side, but Maj M.
        Arushunyan mentioned that on five occasions since the last
        Monitoring, mine explosions had been heard on the Azerbaijani
        side.

        ¶3. Conclusions

        - The fact that the Monitoring was halted due to a shot being
        fired towards OSCE monitoring Team brings into question the
        security of the Teams. The exchange of guarantees prior to
        Monitorings is meant to ensure the safety of OSCE personnel.
        It is of paramount importance that escort personnel,
        including local and regional commanders, should ensure that
        every measure possible is taken to guarantee the safety and
        security of OSCE personnel also by strengthening the
        discipline among troops.

        - It was not possible for the Teams to determine the side
        from which the shot came due to the terrain and the nature of
        the front lines.

        - Parties should promptly investigate the incident and submit
        relevant reports.

        - The tension on the LOC observed at the last Monitoring
        remains high. The increased number of casualties is a cause
        for concern and should be addressed.

        ANDRZEJ KASPRZYK
        Personal Representative of the CiO

        End text.
        GODFREY

        Comment


        • #14
          Re: Wikileaks

          UNCLAS YEREVAN 001842

          SIPDIS

          SENSITIVE

          DEPT FOR DRL AND EUR/CACEN

          E.O. 12958: N/A
          TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
          SUBJECT: MURDER SUSPECT RE-ELECTED AS TOWN MAYOR


          ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
          accordingly.

          ---------------------------------------
          MURDER CHARGES DON'T DISSUADE VOTERS...
          ---------------------------------------

          ¶2. (SBU) The campaign for mayor of the town of Nor Hajn
          (about 20 minutes outside of Yerevan in the Kotayk
          region) took a bizarre turn when the incumbent, Armen
          Keshishyan, shot dead his friend-turned rival. Because
          Keshishyan had not gone to trial before the election --
          held on October 9 -- his name was not removed from the
          ballot. Voters were evidently not dissuaded by
          Keshishyan's actions and re-elected him, even though he
          was in custody on the day of the ballot. At the time
          of the shooting -- which took place in broad daylight
          in front of witnesses -- Keshishyan was arguing with
          his rival about pork-barrel projects with which the
          mayor could not compete. While there were reports of
          some electoral violations during last week's balloting,
          the local branch of the election watchdog NGO "It's
          Your Choice" told us that the voting was mostly fair.
          Government contacts confirmed to us that Keshishyan's
          opponent did not contest the results to Armenia's
          Central Electoral Commission.

          -------------------------------------------
          ...EVEN WHEN THE SMOKING GUN IS FROM THE PM
          -------------------------------------------

          ¶3. (SBU) Local media seized on the story not only
          because of Keshisyan's involvement in the bizarre
          murder story but because of claims that the murder
          weapon was a gift from Armenian Prime Minister Andranik
          Markarian. An unidentified representative of the Prime
          Minister's office later reportedly confirmed to the
          media that Markarian often gives guns as gifts to close
          friends and that he had distributed over 500 such
          weapons during his ten years in office.

          -------------------------------------------
          COMMENT: FROM MAYOR'S OFFICE TO JAIL CELL?
          -------------------------------------------

          ¶3. (SBU) Comment: This latest example of political
          passions running wild in Armenia's regions comes at a
          precarious time for Armenia. GOAM authorities are
          facing heavy pressure to demonstrate mature democratic
          institutions during upcoming local elections later this
          month, the much-anticipated November 27 constitutional
          referendum and the 2007 (parliamentary) and 2008
          (presidential) elections. Armenian legislation allows
          a criminal suspect to run for public office but
          requires resignation if found guilty. The public and
          donor community will be watching carefully to see how
          the courts handle Keshishyan's case.
          EVANS

          Comment


          • #15
            Re: Wikileaks

            C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001940

            SIPDIS

            E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2015
            TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
            SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S MEETING WITH DEFENSE MINISTER SARGSIAN


            Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

            USG Participants:

            EUR A/S Daniel Fried
            Ambassador Evans
            EUR/SNEC Elizabeth Rood

            Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsian
            Lt. Hovhannes Ghazarian (interpreter)

            ----------------------
            "UNREALIZED POTENTIAL"
            ----------------------

            ¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary Fried described for Defense
            Minister Sargsian a sense in Washington that history in
            Armenia's neighborhood is accelerating, for better or worse.
            U.S.-Armenian relations, he said, have "unrealized
            potential." The United States wants to work with all its
            friends in the region. Whatever others might say, the U.S.
            is not in favor of revolutions; rather we are interested in
            strong reforms. Armenia is moving in a positive direction,
            as its two nearest neighbors were also moving in interesting
            directions.

            -----------------------------------
            U.S. NOT IN COMPETITION WITH RUSSIA
            -----------------------------------

            ¶2. (C) Defense Minister Sargsian said that Armenia was headed
            toward Europe, because Armenians considered themselves
            members of the European family. But he said Armenia now
            needed to find the answers to a number of questions. The
            Minister said that for Armenia the optimal situation was when
            relations between Russian and the United States were good.
            Armenia had never sought to benefit from contradictions
            between the two. Such a small and weak country was Armenia
            that even small events could be critical; a country with only
            one gas pipeline had to make all of its choices with that
            pipeline in mind.

            ¶3. (C) Fried said that the United States had never regarded
            Armenia as an object of competition between ourselves and the
            Russians, and we do not want to develop our relations with
            Armenia at the expense of Russia. It is good for Armenia to
            have good relations with Moscow. We do not seek to weaken
            Russia in this part of the world, but do want the countries
            here to be sovereign and at peace. We want Armenia to
            succeed, and would not ask Armenia to weaken its ties to
            Russia. Armenia might, for that matter, help to show Russia
            the way, by reforming and developing in a democratic
            direction while being a friend to Russia. As the Europeans
            are absorbed in internal issues at the moment, it is perhaps
            easier for Americans than for the Europeans to see Armenia as
            an eventual part of Europe. Washington did not see events in
            the region as based on a zero-sum principle, although we do
            sense that our Russian friends are nervous. Accusations that
            U.S. policy is Trotskyite -- that is, favoring permanent
            revolution -- is not serious. Reforms, though, are
            necessary, which is why we place so much importance on the
            referendum on the constitutional amendments in November.

            ---------------------------------------
            PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH
            ---------------------------------------

            ¶4. (C) Fried noted that a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement would
            open up interesting possibilities for Armenia. He asked what
            the Minister thought of the situation and how the United
            States might help. Sargsian recalled the recent meetings of
            the Armenian and Azeri presidents and said that the way
            forward that was currently on the table was "optimal." There
            was no other way forward. This "compromise solution" was the
            only possible solution.

            ¶5. (C) The A/S agreed that there was wisdom in discussion and
            compromise, and that to speak in terms of victory and defeat
            makes no sense. Azeri Foreign Minister Mammadyarov is a
            serious person, and we are encouraged enough to think that
            2006 should be the time for a major step forward on N-K. We
            will do all we can, but ultimately it would be up to the
            parties to reach an agreement.

            ¶6. (C) Sargsian said he had doubts about whether the Azeris
            really wanted to make the deal that was on the table work.
            He stressed he was not particularly worried by this
            possibility, as he had observed the problem at all stages of
            its development. It was not necessary to speak of
            "compromise;" one could talk about a "solution," if that were
            easier. The important thing was that the situation not
            revert to conflict.

            ¶7. (C) Fried agreed, saying that conflicts keep countries in
            the region vulnerable and weak. What the Central and Eastern
            Europeans had achieved in their region since 1989 was a
            positive example that opened their door to Europe.

            ------
            TURKEY
            ------

            ¶8. (C) Turning to Turkey, Fried said that Prime Minister
            Erdogan was doing a good job, despite some difficulties in
            our relationship. He has dealt with a number of difficult
            questions. Armenia's leaders should keep in mind that Turkey
            is changing. The fact that Turks are now thinking about
            Armenia is progress. Absent an agreement on N-K, however,
            there was not much Turkey could do. Still, the situation is
            much improved as compared to even five years ago.

            ¶9. (C) Sargsian said that the prosperity of Armenia
            ultimately depended on the opening of the border with Turkey,
            which would "make us three times freer than we are." He
            added that Armenians living abroad did not have to face such
            fateful decisions as did the GOAM.

            ---------------------
            MOVING TOWARD EUROPE?
            ---------------------

            ¶10. (C) Fried said that, as Armenia continued to emerge and
            head toward Europe, we wanted our relations to develop.
            Every country in the region, e.g., Georgia, had its problems.
            He told Sargsian he was glad he understood that the U.S. was
            not trying to exclude Russia from the region. Looking around
            the region, it was clear that fearful leaders make mistakes.
            Reform through constitutional processes makes good sense.

            ¶11. (C) Sargsian noted how useful it would be for all
            countries in the region to have the railway through Abkhazia
            reopened. After some sharing of impressions of personalities
            in Georgia (A/S Fried's next stop), the meeting concluded.

            ¶12. (U) EUR/FO has cleared this cable.
            EVANS

            Comment


            • #16
              Re: Wikileaks

              C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000688

              SIPDIS

              SIPDIS

              DEPT FOR A/S DAN FRIED FROM AMBASSADOR EVANS
              DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/SNEC AND EUR/CARC
              NSC FOR MERKEL

              E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
              TAGS: PREL PGOV OTRA OSCE AJ AM
              SUBJECT: GOOD POLITICAL CLIMATE IN ARMENIA FOR A DEAL ON N-K

              REF: STATE 78834

              Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

              ¶1. (C) We look forward to welcoming you to Yerevan again.
              Given your familiarity with the Nagorno-Karabakh
              negotiations, we would like to take this opportunity to
              update you on domestic political developments, some of which
              may influence Armenian decision-making with respect to N-K.

              ¶2. (C) Despite the pending resignation of National Assembly
              Speaker Artur Baghdasarian and his party's withdrawal from
              the governing coalition (ref B), Armenia's political scene
              remains remarkably calm, a testament to the power President
              Robert Kocharian wields. As Armenia's N-K
              negotiator-in-chief, and as an N-K veteran, Kocharian is
              well-positioned to both accept a settlement and enforce its
              conditions. A USG-funded national voter survey concluded May
              7 found Kocharian's approval rating remained strong, as did
              public concern about the consequences of a failure to
              peacefully resolve the N-K conflict. The survey found
              respondents feared the potential for Azeri military build-up
              and overwhelmingly favored a quick, peaceful solution to the
              N-K conflict through negotiation rather than force. The time
              for settlement was now, respondents told pollsters, a strong
              argument for your May 25-26 discussions in Yerevan. End
              Summary.

              --------------------------------------
              KOCHARIAN MAINTAINS FIRM GRIP ON POWER
              --------------------------------------

              ¶3. (C) On May 12, National Assembly Speaker Artur
              Baghdasarian formally announced his party's withdrawal from
              the governing coalition and his intention to step down as
              Speaker. His announcement ended intense speculation about
              his falling out with President Robert Kocharian and his
              party's (Orinats Yerkir) hemorrhage of members in the
              National Assembly. Orinats Yerkir's departure from the
              governing coalition neither hinders the government's ability
              to push through its programs nor changes Kocharian's personal
              control of key issues, including N-K negotiations. The
              almost certain government nominee for Speaker is current
              Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosyan, a member of the Republican
              Party (Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan's party), who
              recently told us that he believed the government should do
              more to prepare the public for an N-K settlement.

              ¶4. (C) The crowded constellation of small political groupings
              emerging ahead of the 2007 parliamentary and 2008 president
              elections has not affected Kocharian's decision-making or
              authority. Local business tycoon Gagik Tsarukian, former
              "Nagorno-Karabakh Minister of Defense" Samvel Babayan, and
              supporters of Prosecutor General Aghvan Hovsepian have gone
              public with their plans to mobilize constituents and
              negotiate with other political parties about possible
              alliances. Far from a threat to Kocharian's power base,
              however, these new groupings are based primarily on the
              business or personal connections of their founders, and none
              of them opposes the current power structure.

              --------------------------------------------- -------------
              GENERAL PUBLIC OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS PEACEFUL SOLUTION NOW
              --------------------------------------------- -------------

              ¶5. (C) Kocharian's approval rating remains favorable,
              according to an International Republican Institute (IRI)
              Armenian voter survey funded by the USG and conducted by the
              Gallup Organization. According to respondents, only
              unemployment outranked the N-K conflict as "the most
              important issue facing Armenia." Eighty-five percent of the
              respondents said they favored a peaceful solution to the N-K
              conflict through negotiation rather than military force.
              Seventy-one percent said they were optimistic that a peaceful
              settlement could be reached and virtually all respondents
              said they thought it was important to solve the N-K problem
              in the near future. No respondents, however, favored
              "returning" N-K to Azerbaijan. The survey provides you a
              solid argument, and Kocharian good political cover, to push
              the tough decisions that would settle the conflict now.
              (Note: The Gallup Organization designed, coordinated, and
              analyzed the USG-funded study, which included face-to-face
              interviews with 1200 Armenian residents aged 18 years and
              older, from a representative cross-section of society.
              According to IRI and Gallup, the margin of error did not
              exceed three percent. End Note.)

              YEREVAN 00000688 002.2 OF 002



              --------------------------------------------- -------
              OPPOSITION NOT TO "STAND IN THE WAY" OF A SETTLEMENT
              --------------------------------------------- -------

              ¶6. (C) Privately, opposition leaders including Stepan
              Demirchian (People's Party), Artashes Geghamyan (National
              Unity), Aram Sargsyan (Republic Party), and Vazgen Manukyan
              (National Democratic Union) have told us they would not stand
              in the way of a settlement, a significant departure from past
              opposition platforms that would have painted any concessions
              on N-K unpatriotic.
              Though Kocharian knows this, you might
              find it useful to remind him. Conscious of his place in
              history, N-K resolution is Kocharian's best, most significant
              opportunity to forge a lasting legacy. (Note: Like Gallup
              Survey respondents, opposition leaders have told us they are
              concerned about Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's pledge to
              dramatically increase defense spending. End Note.)

              ---------------------------------------------
              COMMENT: NO BETTER TIME FOR N-K NEGOTIATIONS
              ---------------------------------------------

              ¶7. (C) President Robert Kocharian maintains his firm grip on
              all aspects of governance in Armenia. He enters this round
              of negotiations well-positioned, having demonstrated his
              ability to hold course with or without governing coalition
              partners. Public opinion, as judged by the Gallup
              Organization, strongly favors a near-term settlement,
              strongly fears the potential of Azeri military action, and
              favors negotiation over military action. Likely coming to
              the same conclusions about public opinions on their own,
              opposition leaders privately confided they would support a
              settlement. You may wish to underscore favorable public
              opinion for a negotiated settlement by delivering the
              N-K-specific results of the study (see para 5 above) to
              Kocharian at your May 25 meeting.

              EVANS
              Last edited by Vrej1915; 10-18-2011, 11:45 PM.

              Comment


              • #17
                Re: Wikileaks

                C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000819

                SIPDIS

                SIPDIS

                DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

                E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
                TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL TU AM
                SUBJECT: TURKISH MP'S VISIT TO ARMENIA MARRED BY HEATED
                COMMENTS ON EVENTS OF 1915

                Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

                -------
                SUMMARY
                -------

                ¶1. (C) A member of the Turkish parliament made Armenian news
                June 13 when he got into a verbal scuffle with Armenian
                National Assembly Speaker Tigran Torosyan during a rare visit
                to Armenia. Twenty parliamentarians visited Armenia June
                12-14 on an information-gathering trip managed by the NATO
                international staff. MP Vahit Erdem, vice president of the
                NATO PA and one of three Turkish MPs in the group (the other
                two being Faruk Unsal and Muharrem Karsli) said during a
                closed meeting with the Speaker that there was no official
                Ottoman government order to kill Armenians in 1915, and that
                therefore, the events cannot be considered genocide.
                Torosyan countered that Erdem had no right to assess the
                events of 1915, nor to judge the countries that have
                recognized them to be a genocide. The contretemps was the
                subject of news reports by two media outlets, despite the
                fact that delegation staffers cleared all journalists from
                the room before the meeting took place. The same Turkish MP
                also made heated comments about Armenian-Turkish relations
                during a panel discussion with Armenian NGO representatives
                held at the U.S. Embassy. End Summary.

                -----------------------------
                1915 COMES UP IN CONVERSATION
                -----------------------------

                ¶2. (C) Vahit Erdem (Justice and Development Party/AKP) made
                Armenian news June 13 when he got into a verbal scuffle with
                Armenian National Assembly Speaker Tigran Torosyan. Erdem
                was one of the leaders of the NATO PA delegation that visited
                Yerevan June 12-14 on a fact-finding mission. One of the
                delegation's staffers characterized the group as "reasonably
                educated generalists trying to broaden their knowledge." In
                addition to their meeting with Torosyan, the parliamentarians
                met with representatives of the OSCE, visited the MFA, the
                National Security Service, the National Assembly and the MOD,
                and attended two panel discussions with Armenian NGO
                representatives at the U.S. Embassy.

                ¶3. (C) According to press reports corroborated by delegation
                staffer Zachary Seldon, during the June 13 meeting with
                Torosyan, the delegation presented the Speaker its draft
                regional report, which said vaguely that international
                supporters of Armenia had recognized the Armenian "genocide."
                Torosyan suggested the language be changed to reflect
                specifically that EU member-states and the European
                Parliament had recognized the "genocide." After that, Erdem
                said no genocide ever occurred, that there was never an
                official order to kill Armenians, and that the Armenians,
                egged on by the Russians, had "attacked the Turks first."
                Torosyan interrupted Erdem, and said that, as a member of an
                international delegation, Erdem had no right to assess the
                events of 1915, nor to judge the countries that had
                recognized them to be a genocide. According to the group's
                interpreter, who is known to Post as a reliable source,
                Torosyan kept his cool throughout the exchange. Some members
                of the NATO-PA delegation reportedly shared Torosyan's
                sentiment and later criticized Erdem for taking a national
                position while acting in his role as a leading member of an
                international delegation. Seldon noted privately that the
                parliamentarian had stepped clearly beyond the bounds
                appropriate to his position in the delegation.

                ----------------------------------
                ANTI-TURKISH STORY LEAKED TO PRESS
                ----------------------------------

                ¶4. (C) The exchange was reported June 14 in the state-run
                newspaper Hayastani Hanrapetutiun (Armenian Republic), and in
                Regnum, an online Russian-language media outlet. Seldon
                noted that there were four journalists in the meeting room
                before the meeting began, but that they had complied with his
                request to leave. He said he was dismayed that the story had
                leaked out, and noted that no other members of the Armenian
                National Assembly were present at the meeting. It is unclear
                whether Torosyan had any aides with him during the meeting.

                ¶5. (C) Erdem also became heated during one of the panel
                discussions with Armenian NGO representatives that took place

                at the U.S. Embassy June 12. During the discussion, Armenian
                Atlantic Association Executive Director Tevan Poghosyan,
                whose NGO aims to foster better understanding among Armenians
                of NATO's mission and activities, accused Turkey of accepting
                the status quo of Armenian-Turkish relations, rather than
                working to normalize them. Erdem countered that Turkey was
                doing everything in its power to normalize relations. The
                rest of the delegation remained somewhat awkwardly silent.

                -------
                COMMENT
                -------

                ¶6. (C) It is rare that Turkish officials visit Armenia, and
                the atmospherics vary by case. Turkish Ambassador Daryal
                Batibay was here a year ago with the Council of Europe's "Ago
                Group" and there was no contretemps of any kind. But it is
                not only the visitors who vary case by case. Former National
                Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasarian spoke often and with
                conviction about the need for Armenia to "get aboard the
                train to Europe that is Turkey," rather than "lying on the
                tracks in front of it." He boasted of his relationship with
                his Turkish opposite number, with whom he claimed to be
                planning to move relations forward through
                intra-Parliamentary contacts. Baghdasarian is now out of the
                Speakership,
                and it remains to be seen whether Torosyan, who
                lacks as yet the broad international contacts cultivated by
                his predecessor and has a much less outgoing persona, will be
                willing or able to use his new office to good effect on the
                frustratingly unhappy state of Turkish-Armenian relations.
                The exchange of invective reported above probably will not
                encourage the new Armenian Speaker to reach out to his
                Turkish counterparts, at least in the short run. END COMMENT.

                EVANS
                Last edited by Vrej1915; 10-18-2011, 11:47 PM.

                Comment


                • #18
                  Re: Wikileaks

                  UNCLAS YEREVAN 001062

                  SIPDIS

                  SENSITIVE
                  SIPDIS

                  E.O. 12958: N/A
                  TAGS: ECON EMIN EINV AM
                  SUBJECT: BASE METALS LLC TO INVEST USD 20 MILLION IN NAGORNO
                  KARABAKH

                  Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

                  ¶1. (U) Base Metals LLC., an Armenian-registered and
                  Lichtenstein-based private company, announced plans to invest an
                  additional USD 20 million in its copper and gold mining operations
                  in the village of Drmbon in Nagorno Karabakh (NK). According to
                  press reports, the company employs a majority of the village
                  population and is the most lucrative business and largest taxpayer
                  in the region. Base Metals belongs to the Vallex Group of companies
                  which also includes the Armenian Copper Program (ACP), Vallex
                  Mining, Vallex Stone, Vallex IT, and the Mining and Metallurgy
                  Institute.

                  ¶2. (SBU) Base Metals conducted a geological survey of the Drmbon
                  deposit in 2002 and completed construction of an ore-dressing plant
                  at the site in September 2003. The company's press secretary is
                  quoted in the press saying that at end of 2005, Base Metals had
                  invested a total of USD 15 million in NK. Head of the ACP Planning
                  Department Artak Manukyan told us (during a conversation on other
                  issues) that the Drmbon plant's current monthly output amounts to
                  1,200 tons of copper concentrate, which is then transported to the
                  ACP-owned smelter in Alaverdi, Armenia, for further processing. The
                  final product of the Alaverdi smelter, gold-rich blister copper, is
                  primarily exported to the European market.

                  ¶3. (U) According to a recent press statement made by Executive
                  Director of Base Metals LLC Artur Mkrtumyan, the mine is one of the
                  largest foreign investments in NK. The mine employs approximately
                  1,000 people at an average monthly salary of USD 300 and operates on
                  a 24-hour schedule. Mkrtumyan estimated that the deposits at the
                  site were sufficient to support expanded operations for the next 20
                  years and told the press that Base Metals was continuing to explore
                  for new deposits throughout NK.

                  EVANS

                  Comment


                  • #19
                    Re: Wikileaks

                    Hurray for Mr. Kocharian for not making "concessions" because of the supposed Azeri "military-build up" which would have altered the military balance in the future "significantly". The result, no surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the military-balance is still not altered as Armenia saw different ways to keep up with Azergayjan. Thank you Mr. Kocharian and thank you Mr. Sargysyan, as other anti-Armenian opposition members would have ceded Nagorno-Karabakh a long time ago, and we would have the problem of Turkey and Azerbaijan claiming Syunik, after which we should cede parts of Syunik, and afterwards they will claim Yerevan, after which we should cede parts of Yerevan, and afterwards they will claim every Armenian life, after which we should (a) commit suicide (b) walk into the desert (c) be killed.

                    Comment


                    • #20
                      Re: Wikileaks

                      S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001249

                      SIPDIS

                      SIPDIS

                      DEPT FOR EUR/CARC
                      OSD FOR DASD JIM MACDOUGAL

                      E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2016
                      TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR AM IR
                      SUBJECT: DEFMIN SARGSIAN REVEIWS N-K, IRAN, AND ELECTION
                      ISSUES DURING AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL


                      Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

                      ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Sargsian lauded the growing bilateral defense
                      relationship, before complaining about Azerbaijan's approach
                      to the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations. He said that
                      Azerbaijan constantly revises its demands, and called for the
                      Minsk Group Co-Chairs to demand greater consistency from the
                      Azerbaijani side. Ambassador called on Sargsian (as a top
                      ruling-party leader) to weigh in for clean elections in 2007,
                      to which Sargsian agreed. Sargsian took the Ambassador's
                      point about arms-length relations with Iran, and commented
                      the Armenian-Iranian relationship was superficial and driven
                      mostly by Armenia's critical energy needs. Ambassador advised
                      of EUCOM GEN Ward's upcoming visit, which Sargsian welcomed.
                      END SUMMARY

                      --------------------------------------
                      GOOD TIMES IN THE DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP
                      --------------------------------------

                      ¶2. (C) The Ambassador's September 5 farewell call on Defense
                      Minister Serzh Sargsian found the minister in good spirits
                      about the growing warmth in the bilateral defense
                      relationship. Ambassador reviewed some of the key landmarks
                      during his tenure: U.S. assistance in the development of
                      Armenia's new National Security Strategy (NSS), the
                      successful deployment of Armenian troops in Iraq and Kosovo,
                      and growing momentum in the FMF/IMET programs. He thanked
                      the minister for his personal support for these initiatives,
                      which began with Sargsian's decision to support a Defense
                      Assessment, and noted his expectation that this cooperation
                      should continue, full steam, notwithstanding his own
                      departure. The Ambassador assured Sargsian that
                      Ambassador-designate Hoagland was a consummate professional,
                      and predicted the two would get along well. He also advised
                      Sargsian of the 19-20 September visit of EUCOM Deputy
                      Commander GEN Ward, commenting that Ward enjoyed a sterling
                      reputation. The ambassador proposed that Sargsian explore
                      the feasibility of visiting the Armenian troops deployed in
                      Iraq.

                      ¶3. (C) Sargsian responded in kind, with effusive appreciation
                      for the deepening bilateral defense relationship, and for the
                      Ambassador's role in fostering it. He expressed hope that
                      Ambassador-designate Hoagland would call on him soon after
                      arrival, and continue the tradition of close cooperation.
                      Sargsian said his ministry had made a policy of complete
                      openness with the U.S. Embassy and the U.S. advisers on the
                      NSS, hiding nothing. He welcomed the many seminars and
                      training opportunities the U.S. has provided the MOD. He
                      stated that Armenia wanted to give NATO a warm reception.
                      Sargsian said he would inquire with GEN Ward about the
                      possibility of a visit to Iraq.

                      ---------------------------
                      BEWARE THE PERSIAN NEIGHBOR
                      ---------------------------

                      ¶4. (C) The Ambassador cautioned Sargsian--in his role as
                      chairman of Armenia's National Security Council--to be
                      cautious about Armenia's ties with Iran, and especially to
                      consider the bad optics of broadening or deepening those ties
                      as the UN Security Council deliberates on sanctions against
                      Iran. At the same time, he encouraged Armenia to look for
                      opportunities, during its routine contacts with its southern
                      neighbor, to encourage Iranian officials to turn aside from
                      the country's defiant posture against the international
                      community. Sargsian was dismissive of the Armenian-Iranian
                      relationship. He said that some trade was inevitable,
                      particularly to satisfy Armenia's critical needs for
                      diversification of energy sources. Sargsian said that the
                      bottom line was that Armenia is dependent on gas, and it was
                      "better to have two pipes than one." Beneath these
                      superficial commercial relationships and certain
                      people-to-people connections at the grass-roots level, the
                      two governments had quite different values and interests,
                      precluding a close friendship. Sargsian felt that neither
                      Armenia nor Russia would have any success in altering Iran's
                      outlook.

                      --------------------------------------------- --
                      N-K: THE EVER-SHIFTING POSITIONS OF AZERBAIJAN
                      --------------------------------------------- --

                      ¶5. (S) The Ambassador broached Nagorno-Karabakh, urging
                      Armenia to stick with the Minsk Group (MG) negotiation

                      YEREVAN 00001249 002 OF 003


                      process, even if (when) the talks hit rough patches. He
                      pointed out that a credible negotiating process is a
                      stabilizing factor in the region; should that process break
                      down, that fact alone could have destabilizing consequences.
                      Sargsian agreed, but confessed his government sometimes toyed
                      with the idea of just such a dramatic gesture of displeasure
                      as withdrawing from the MG process. He thought the
                      negotiations might be a waste of time if Azerbaijan refused
                      to deal seriously, and was pessimistic of the chances for a
                      near-term solution. The minister suggested that the U.S.
                      review its own satellite imagery over the last few years and
                      examine the positions of the two sides, defensive
                      entrenchments. He said such a review would show the
                      inexorable advance of Azerbaijani positions, moving the Line
                      of Contact toward the Armenian side.

                      ¶6. (S) Sargsian complained at some length that Armenia could
                      not trust the Azerbaijani leadership to negotiate in good
                      faith and keep its word. Azerbaijan's demands constantly
                      shift, always demanding some new concession. He predicted
                      that even if a peace deal were agreed between the two sides,
                      Azerbaijan would keep coming back for more concessions. He
                      called for the MG co-chairs to get tough with Azerbaijan, and
                      not tolerate this continual shifting of the goalposts.
                      "Speaking quietly to Azerbaijan is like not speaking at all"
                      he commented, saying Azerbaijan only hears firm and forceful
                      interventions. Sargsian also complained about the steady
                      stream of bellicose rhetoric from Baku this year, contrasting
                      it with Yerevan's restraint, and taking this as further
                      evidence Azerbaijan is not serious about negotiating with
                      Armenia, but only posturing. Ilham Aliyev says one thing in
                      MG negotiations, and then goes straight home to make
                      inflammatory proclamations in Baku. Sargsian supported the
                      co-chairs' publication of the basic principles after the
                      latest round of negotiations, commenting that this level of
                      public transparency was helpful. Sargsian also stated he was
                      convinced the co-chairs should have published this
                      information much earlier.

                      ¶7. (S) Sargsian thought renewed military conflict unlikely,
                      because Armenia would not launch hostilities, and (he
                      asserted firmly) Azerbaijan was quite incapable of doing so.
                      Sargsian expressed appreciation for U.S. leadership in the
                      South Caucasus. He said that the level of sniping incidents
                      on the Line of Contact had decreased sharply following
                      President Aliyev's trip to Washington. He offered this as an
                      example to prove that forceful engagement works well with
                      Azerbaijan.

                      -------------------
                      THE DEMOCRATIC ROAD
                      -------------------

                      ¶8. (C) Noting Sargsian's role as a top official of the ruling
                      Republican Party, the ambassador affirmed the need for
                      Armenia to perform much better than in the past in the
                      conduct of elections. Sargsian agreed this was imperative,
                      and said President Kocharian clearly understood the great
                      importance of fair elections. He went on to complain of the
                      irresponsible and destructive behavior of Armenia's fractious
                      opposition parties, who boycotted parliament and had refused
                      to play their appointed role in the constitutional
                      referendum. He said opposition leaders failed to comprehend
                      they had an important civic role to play even when they are
                      not in power. The opposition parties just wanted to boycott,
                      criticize, and obstruct anything the government tried to
                      undertake, regardless of its merit. They thus abdicated the
                      role that a political opposition was supposed to fill: to
                      have a valid debate on issues. Sargsian warned that no
                      matter how properly the elections are conducted, there would
                      be local politicians who would seek to inflate minor
                      violation and discredit the process.

                      ¶9. (C) In an odd tangent, Sargsian related with sardonic
                      humor a telephone conversation he said he had had with an
                      Armenian journalist who had published (supposedly) unfounded
                      accusations against him. What was he supposed to do, he
                      asked the journalist, in response to such scurrilous
                      reporting? Should he send thugs to the journalist's house to
                      seek retribution? No, that's out of bounds. Could he seek
                      redress in the courts? No, the courts were corrupt and
                      ineffective. He was powerless to respond effectively to his
                      name being unfairly blackened.

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                      DEALING WITH SARGSIAN

                      YEREVAN 00001249 003 OF 003


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                      ¶10. (C) Well-turned out in a fashionable suit-and-tie,
                      Sargsian was friendly, frank, and engaging, with both sides
                      speaking exclusively in Russian. He was fully confident on
                      all topics from defense issues to democratic process.
                      Normally the most even-tempered interlocutor, on this
                      occasion Sargsian grew more animated in his irritation with
                      Azerbaijan's recent behavior.

                      EVANS

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