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The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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  • Armanen
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Russia, Iran and the Biden Speech




    By George Friedman and Peter Zeihan

    U.S. Vice President Joe Biden toured several countries in Central Europe last week, including the Czech Republic and Poland. The trip comes just a few weeks after the United States reversed course and decided not to construct a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in those two countries. While the system would have had little effect on the national security of either Poland or the Czech Republic, it was taken as a symbol of U.S. commitment to these two countries and to former Soviet satellites generally. The BMD cancellation accordingly caused intense concern in both countries and the rest of the region.

    While the Obama administration strongly denied that the decision to halt the BMD deployment and opt for a different BMD system had anything to do with the Russians, the timing raised some questions. Formal talks with Iran on nuclear weapons were a few weeks away, and the only leverage the United States had in those talks aside from war was sanctions. The core of any effective sanctions against Iran would be placing limits on Iran's gasoline imports. By dint of proximity to Iran and massive spare refining capability, the Russians were essential to this effort -- and they were indicating that they wouldn't participate. Coincidence or not, the decision to pull BMD from Poland and the Czech Republic did give the Russians something they had been demanding at a time when they clearly needed to be brought on board.

    The Biden Challenge
    That's what made Biden's trip interesting. First, just a few weeks after the reversal, he revisited these countries. He reasserted American commitment to their security and promised the delivery of other weapons such as Patriot missile batteries, an impressive piece of hardware that really does enhance regional security (unlike BMD, which would grant only an indirect boost). Then, Biden went even further in Romania, not only extending his guarantees to the rest of Central Europe, but also challenging the Russians directly. He said that the United States regarded spheres of influence as 19th century thinking, thereby driving home that Washington is not prepared to accept Russian hegemony in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Most important, he called on the former satellites of the Soviet Union to assist republics in the FSU that are not part of the Russian Federation to overthrow authoritarian systems and preserve their independence.

    Related LinkU.S. Vice President Joe Biden on America, Central Europe, and Partnership in 21st Century
    (STRATFOR is not responsible for content from other Web sites.)
    This was a carefully written and vetted speech: It was not Biden going off on a tangent, but rather an expression of Obama administration policy. And it taps into the prime Russian fear, namely, that the West will eat away at Russia's western periphery -- and at Russia itself -- with color revolutions that result in the installation of pro-Western governments, just as happened in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004-2005. The United States essentially now has pledged itself to do just that, and has asked the rest of Central Europe to join it in creating and strengthening pro-Western governments in the FSU. After doing something Russia wanted the United States to do, Washington now has turned around and announced a policy that directly challenges Russia, and which in some ways represents Russia's worst-case scenario.

    What happened between the decision to pull BMD and Biden's Romania speech remains unclear, but there are three possibilities. The first possibility is that the Obama administration decided to shift policy on Russia in disappointment over Moscow's lack of response to the BMD overture. The second possibility is that the Obama administration didn't consider the effects of the BMD reversal. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the one had nothing to do with the other, and it is possible that the Obama administration simply failed to anticipate the firestorm the course reversal would kick off in Central Europe and to anticipate that it would be seen as a conciliatory gesture to the Russians, and then had to scramble to calm the waters and reassert the basic American position on Russia, perhaps more harshly than before. The third possibility, a variation on the second scenario, is that the administration might not yet have a coordinated policy on Russia. Instead, it responds to whatever the most recent pressure happens to be, giving the appearance of lurching policy shifts.

    The why of Washington decision-making is always interesting, but the fact of what has now happened is more pertinent. And that is that Washington now has challenged Moscow on the latter's core issues. However things got to that point, they are now there -- and the Russian issue now fully intersects with the Iranian issue. On a deeper level, Russia once again is shaping up to be a major challenge to U.S. national interests. Russia fears (accurately) that a leading goal of American foreign policy is to prevent the return of Russia as a major power. At present, however, the Americans lack the free hand needed to halt Russia's return to prominence as a result of commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Kremlin inner circle understands this divergence between goal and capacity all too well, and has been working to keep the Americans as busy as possible elsewhere.

    Distracting Washington While Shoring Up Security
    The core of this effort is Russian support for Iran. Moscow has long collaborated with Tehran on Iran's nuclear power generation efforts. Conventional Russian weapon systems are quite popular with the Iranian military. And Iran often makes use of Russian international diplomatic cover, especially at the U.N. Security Council, where Russia wields the all-important veto.

    Russian support confounds Washington's ability to counter more direct Iranian action, whether that Iranian action be in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq or the Persian Gulf. The Obama administration would prefer to avoid war with Iran, and instead build an international coalition against Iran to force it to back down on any number of issues of which a potential nuclear weapons program is only the most public and obvious. But building that coalition is impossible with a Russia-sized hole right in the center of the system.

    The end result is that the Americans have been occupied with the Islamic world for some time now, something that secretly delights the Russians. The Iranian distraction policy has worked fiendishly well: It has allowed the Russians to reshape their own neighborhood in ways that simply would not be possible if the Americans had more diplomatic and military freedom of action. At the beginning of 2009, the Russians saw three potential challenges to their long-term security that they sought to mitigate. As of this writing, they have not only succeeded, they have managed partially to co-opt all three threats.

    First, there is Ukraine, which is tightly integrated into the Russian industrial and agricultural heartland. A strong Ukrainian-Russian partnership (if not outright control of Ukraine by Russia) is required to maintain even a sliver of Russian security. Five years ago, Western forces managed to short-circuit a Kremlin effort to firm up Russian control of the Ukrainian political system, resulting in the Orange Revolution that saw pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko take office. After five years of serious Russian diplomatic and intelligence work, Moscow has since managed not just to discredit Yushchenko -- he is now less popular in most opinion polls than the margin of error -- but to command the informal loyalty of every other candidate for president in the upcoming January 2010 election. Very soon, Ukraine's Western moment will formally be over.

    Russia is also sewing up the Caucasus. The only country that could challenge Russia's southern flank is Turkey, and until now, the best Russian hedge against Turkish power has been an independent (although certainly still a Russian client) Armenia. (Turkish-Armenian relations have been frozen in the post-Cold War era over the contentious issue of the Armenian genocide.) A few months ago, Russia offered the Turks the opportunity to improve relations with Armenia. The Turks are emerging from 90 years of near-comatose international relations, and they jumped at the chance to strengthen their position in the Caucasus. But in the process, Turkey's relationship with its heretofore regional ally, Azerbaijan (Armenia's archfoe), has soured. Terrified that they are about to lose their regional sponsor, the Azerbaijanis have turned to the Russians to counterbalance Armenia, while the Russians still pull all Armenia's strings. The end result is that Turkey's position in the Caucasus is now far weaker than it was a few months ago, and Russia still retains the ability to easily sabotage any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.

    Even on the North European Plain, Russia has made great strides. The main power on that plain is the recently reunified Germany. Historically, Germany and Russia have been at each other's throats, but only when they have shared a direct border. When an independent Poland separates them, they have a number of opportunities for partnership, and 2009 has seen such opportunities seized. The Russians initially faced a challenge regarding German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel is from the former East Germany, giving her personal reasons to see the Russians as occupiers. Cracking this nut was never going to be easy for Moscow, yet it succeeded. During the 2009 financial crisis, when Russian firms were snapping like twigs, the Russian government still provided bailout money and merger financing to troubled German companies, with a rescue plan for Opel even helping Merkel clinch re-election. With the Kremlin now offering to midwife -- and in many cases directly subsidize -- investment efforts in Russia by German firms such as E.On, Wintershall, Siemens, Volkswagen and ThyssenKrupp, the Kremlin has quite literally purchased German goodwill.

    Washington Seeks a Game Changer
    With Russia making great strides in Eurasia while simultaneously sabotaging U.S. efforts in the Middle East, the Americans desperately need to change the game. Despite its fiery tone, this desperation was on full display in Biden's speech. Flat-out challenging the Central Europeans to help other FSU countries recreate the revolutions they launched when they broke with the Soviet empire in 1989, specifically calling for such efforts in Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, is as bald-faced a challenge as the Americans are currently capable of delivering. And to ensure there was no confusion on the point, Biden also promised -- publicly -- whatever support the Central Europeans might ask for. The Americans have a serious need for the Russians to be on the defensive. Washington wants to force the Russians to focus on their own neighborhood, ideally forgetting about the Iranians in the process. Better yet, Washington would like to force the Russians into a long slog of defensive actions to protect their clients hard up on their own border. The Russians did not repair the damage of the Orange Revolution overnight, so imagine how much time Washington would have if all of the former Soviet satellites started stirring up trouble across Russia's western and southern periphery.

    The Central Europeans do not require a great deal of motivation. If the Americans are concerned about a resurgent Russia, then the Central Europeans are absolutely terrified -- and that was before the Russians started courting Germany, the only regional state that could stand up to Russia by itself. Things are even worse for the Central Europeans than they seem, as much of their history has consisted of vainly attempting to outmaneuver Germany and Russia's alternating periods of war and partnership.

    The question of why the United States is pushing this hard at the present time remains. Talks with the Iranians are under way; it is difficult to gauge how they are going. The conventional wisdom holds that the Iranians are simply playing for time before allowing the talks to sink. This would mean the Iranians don't feel terribly pressured by the threat of sanctions and don't take threats of attack very seriously. At least with regard to the sanctions, the Russians have everything to do with Iran's blase attitude. The American decision to threaten Russia might simply have been a last-ditch attempt to force Tehran's hand now that conciliation seems to have failed. It isn't likely to work, because for the time being Russia has the upper hand in the former Soviet Union, and the Americans and their allies -- motivated as they may be -- do not have the best cards to play.

    The other explanation might be that the White House wanted to let Iran know that the Americans don't need Russia to deal with Iran. The threats to Russia might infuriate it, but the Kremlin is unlikely to feel much in the form of clear and present dangers. On the other hand, blasting the Russians the way Biden did might force the Iranians to reconsider their hand. After all, if the Americans are no longer thinking of the Russians as part of the solution, this indicates that the Americans are about to give up on diplomacy and sanctions. And that means the United States must choose between accepting an Iranian bomb or employing the military option.

    And this leaves the international system with two outcomes. First, by publicly ending attempts to secure Russian help, Biden might be trying to get the Iranians to take American threats seriously. And second, by directly challenging the Russians on their home turf, the United States will be making the borderlands between Western Europe and Russia a very exciting place.


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  • Muhaha
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Armenia, Russia interested in deepening energy cooperation



    President Serzh Sargsyan received the Director General of the Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation, Sergey Kiriyenko.

    Discussed were issues related to the Armenian-Russian cooperation in the field of energy. The parties noted that all the agreements reached during the meeting in Yerevan in September 2009 are in the stage of implementation.

    Serzh Sargsyan praised the high level of cooperation with the Russian Federation.

    Serzh Sargsyan and Sergey Kirienko highly appreciated the level of cooperation in the field of atomic energy and the implementation of development-targeted programs. They voiced confidence that the accomplishment of the ongoing programs would allow Armenia to reinforce its position as an electricity exporting country.

    Touching upon the activity of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, the head of Rosatom noted that it is in a brilliant condition, all measures have been taken to guarantee its secure and reliable exploitation.

    The parties discussed issues connected with the construction of a new energy unit.

    Leave a comment:


  • Armanen
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    He is an ex member, one that some of has have known for some time. He also made a lot of good threads and posted a lot of great information, such as this one.

    Leave a comment:


  • Muhaha
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Is "Armenian" a public figure? I've noticed people on this board sometimes talk about him like he saved a thousand Ethiopian children from a burning hut. Is it just E-Fellowship towards a passionate member(Ex-Member?) or I'm missing something?

    Leave a comment:


  • Armanen
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Thank you Lucin jan!

    Leave a comment:


  • Lucin
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Originally posted by ZORAVAR View Post
    To Armanen,

    Thanks for posting the article written by Armenian.

    To Armenian,

    Thank you very much for taking the time in writing the above article. It definitly does shed some light on what is happening and illustrates things from a perspective that is a bit broader than what our brothers and sisters are fed through the usual daily news channels.

    These are confusing times and our compatriots are lost in what is happening. Their emotional outbursts are understandable...

    Your latest analysis provides (as always) a clear bearing and sense of guidance to the everyday Armenian who is worried about the well being of his country and compatriotes.

    Your return and presence on this forum is more needed than ever during these confusing times that our nation is going through.

    I look forward to it.

    ZORAVAR
    I agree with you Zoravar and I hope yours will not be ignored.

    And welcome back Armanen.

    Leave a comment:


  • Army
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    A strategician said that "Do not forget that Russians are the champions of chess. If things go wrong, they make take Baku to their side."

    Maybe I could translate the whole article, dunno. However, the most important thing is, do you think that Russians would consider having Baku by their side as the new partner against US and Turkey in the region while Baku is suspicious -and might be angry- against Turkey?

    Leave a comment:


  • Federate
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Russia to reduce gas price for Armenia



    Russia considering Armenia its strategic ally, is ready to aid in overcoming the crisis by reducing prices for Russia-supplied gas. In return, Moscow expects to gain the right for a new nuclear power plant construction in Armenia. The project is estimated from 2 bln Euro to U.S. $5 bln, Russian Kommersant daily reports, referring to its sources.


    The day before, Armenian and Russian Presidents canvassed bilateral trade and economic cooperation, as well as the prospects of large economic projects’ implementation. “Armenia suffering severe financial difficulties have already got U.S. $500 m. loan from Moscow. According to the sources close to &‘Gazprom’, monopoly currently negotiates the reduction of gas prices supplied to Yerevan. In 2010 it might decrease from U.S. $200 to U.S. $180 per 1000 mł. However, this abatement is conditioned not only by Russian side good intention, but also by the gas price decrease for Europe next year compared to H1 2009. This enables &‘Gazprom’ to reconsider price policy for Russia’s close partners among post-Soviet states, that Kremlin reckons Armenia in,” the daily reads.


    Another topical matter of discussion is construction of a new nuclear power plant instead of the Metsamor power plant that is almost worn out. Tender for NPP prime contractor will be completed by the end of 2009. Russia reckons to have its AtomStroyExport CJSC to construct NPP. “Agreement in principle on NPP construction is achieved and we just have to proceed with the red-tape,” one of the “Rosatom” managers stated.

    Presently the plant trust management is implemented by INTER RAO UES, whereas control stock is held by Rosatom. According to the manager, construction of new energy unit will total 2 bln. Euro in case power capacity reaches 1000 MW. “It is a standard price. The cost equals to the one we spend for the construction of NPP in Bulgaria and other states,” said “Rosatom” official.

    Vice-President Alezander Glukhov outlined that tender is scheduled for this year. “Armenian side stated earlier that construction will cost U.S. $5 bln, however tender structure is yet unclear,” he concluded.

    Leave a comment:


  • KanadaHye
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Russia and China sign trade deals

    China and Russia have signed trade agreements worth $3.5bn (Ł2.2bn).

    About 40 contracts were signed by Russian and Chinese businessmen and officials, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Zhukov said.

    The head of Russia's Gazprom, Alexei Miller, said a preliminary deal had also been struck on supplying 70bn cubic metres a year of gas to China.

    The agreements came during the second day of a visit to Beijing by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

    Russia is keen to bolster its economy, which President Dmitry Medvedev has said will decline by 7.5% in 2009.

    It is keen to sell more oil and gas to China - the world's second-biggest energy user.

    Mr Zhukov told reporters that the deals included two $500m loans from Chinese banks to Russian financial institutions.

    One was from the China Development Bank to its Russian counterpart Vnesheconombank, while the other was from the Agricultural Bank of China to Russia's state-run VTB bank.

    He said other deals included investments by Chinese firms in Russian construction facilities, but gave no details.

    Currency ambition

    Trade between Russia and China has risen from less than $10bn to more than $50bn annually over the past six years.

    The heart of the relationship is Beijing's thirst for Russian energy - oil and gas make up more than half of Russian exports to China.

    Earlier this year, Moscow signed a $25bn agreement to help fund a pipeline to supply oil from Siberia to China. In exchange, China was guaranteed a 20-year supply of crude oil.

    However, Moscow is also keen to boost exports of machinery, especially aviation equipment and nuclear power plants - though analysts say that China's appetite for Russian goods other than energy and raw materials is limited.

    The countries are seeking to expand the amount of business they do in their own currencies, rather than the US dollar. However, currently only about 1% of their dealings involve roubles or yuan.


    ANALYSIS


    Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC News, Moscow

    Beijing and Moscow call it a "strategic partnership", but in reality it is a lot more complex and fraught with tension.

    The trade relationship could be described as "you dig it up, we buy it". Russia is rich in resources: oil, gas, metals and timber. China has a huge appetite.

    But Russian nervousness about China can be seen in their energy deals. Russia needs to invest billions to build new pipelines to send its oil and gas to China. Beijing has the money, but Moscow will not allow Chinese companies to build and own these pipelines. Instead, China is having to lend Russia the money.

    It is all about history and demographics. Big chunks of the Russian Far East were once part of the Chinese empire and there is deep concern in Russia that a rich, powerful and over-populated China will one day want it back.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8304084.stm

    Leave a comment:


  • Haykakan
    replied
    Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    I dont think you realise that this was not up for negotiation, this was not a request. The powers of the world sat down drew this up and gave it to us, they did not ask if it was ok or if we wanted to change anything. This was the offer Armenia cannot refuse just like in the godfather movie. It doesnt matter if serj was president or julies ceazar himself, anyone would have gone along with it, there was no choice.

    Leave a comment:

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