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The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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  • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

    Originally posted by yerazhishda View Post
    Armenian, how bad do you think the US economy is going to get? Is it going to be another Great Depression or maybe the US will fall like the USSR altogether?
    In light of all that's been happening in the financial sector here in the US, this is a very difficult question to answer. But I'll attempt to give you 'my' perspective, and I'll try to do so in as few words as possible.

    Although I am not a financial expert (I hate numbers), I read a lot and I have observed global politics for a long time now. In my opinion, the current crisis is much-much more serious than we are led to believe. We are not being told the severity of the turmoil in Wall Street because government officials along with Wall Street executives and news media representatives are engaged in a concerted effort to downplay the current financial crisis in an attempt to alleviate concerns in the general public. However, the situation is getting so bad now that despite their best efforts they can no longer hide it.

    While the US was a beloved industrial power with substantial gold reserves and natural wealth, the US dollar was powerful, claimed by many to be "almighty," an obvious reference to its perceived divine power (perhaps to its detriment). Due to its stability, strenght and longterm promise, nations worldwide chose to trade in the US dollar, thereby further elevating its value in the global market. This global reverence towards the US dollar reached its height in the post-World War Two years and then again in the post-Soviet years. However, the dollar's longterm prospects began to change when the US economy began to transform itself from an industry based economy to a service based consumer economy led by financial institutions and international corporations. What's more, by the 1970s (?) the US government no longer backed the dollar with gold reserves. With the dropping of the traditional gold system, the legal tender essentially became a government backed credit, a piece of paper with nothing to back it up other than the government's word. What's more, the recent years were plagued by liberal lending practices, chronic mismanagement, severe corruption, etc., which also began to gradually undermine the dollar.

    By the turn of the 21 century the US dollar no longer looked as stable or as promising as it had been in the past. This, coupled with major geopolitical tangles the US government kept getting involved in, encouraged some major nations to begin flirting with the idea of moving away from the US dollar in their trade transactions, further weakening the US currency. As a result of all this, the US dollar has been worthless as a currency for some time now. During the 20th century, the dollar managed to first create and then maintained a high global posture while America was considered to be the leader of the so-called free world. And in recent years the dollar got a major boost after the Soviet Union's collapse, making America 'the' undisputed global superpower. So, in a sense, the dollar's current worth is derived from its previous momentum and a lot of political 'hype' and not much else. For some time now I have been saying - don't believe the hype.

    Geopolitically, things have changed quite a bit since the dawn of the 21st century. China rising, India rising, Iran rising, Russia rising... Since the financial power of the US is intimately connected to its preponderance on the global stage, US government officials and financial experts must have seen the looming financial crisis. Seeing it, they had to take action to secure their wealth and power. However, instead of attempting to devise plans that would truly remedy the root causes of the nation's economic problems, special interests in government began devising plans that were politically and financially very risky. In a sense, these special interests sought quick fixes that could also yield high dividends. So, they eventually began to plan the invasion of the Middle East as an attempt to control the region's energy wealth. There was also talk that if Washington could control Middle Eastern and Central Asian energy distribution it could also control China, since China, as big as it's economy is, it is not an energy producer. Moreover, taking advantage of Russia's political weakness during the 1990s, Washington also planned to setup shop in the immensely energy rich republics of Central Asia. Naturally, the Balkans and the Caucasus also played a crucial part in these equations. In a certain sense, this was a race against time for Washington.

    However, the government had to somehow convince "we the people" that we had to do this. But how? How could they convince the people that they had to willingly carry the burden and support the invasion of nations and be involved in armed conflicts overseas for the foreseeable future?

    Difficult task, no?

    Well, in my opinion, the answer was - September 11, 2001. That highly suspicious event convinced the grazers in this nation (the majority) that the US had to get involved in bloody militarily campaigns overseas, not surprisingly mainly in the Middle East and Central Asia. For the grazers, it was a simply a matter of protecting America and you know, freedom... democracy... human rights... etc... For government officials, however, it was simply a matter of getting their hands on black gold so that they can revitalize their weakening financial system and maintain their political advantage over Russia and China. Of course there were several other major factors involved: Israeli lobby, the defense industry, mega corporations... Nevertheless, as a result of 9/11 we saw the US (and its lackeys) getting involved in conflicts from the Balkans to the Caucasus, from the Middle East to Central Asia. I need to mention here that Washington's agenda had started several years prior to the 9/11 attacks, the 9/11 attacks served to accelerate it and intensify it.

    Needless to say, Washington's moves have backfired in the Middle East, Central Asia and most recently in the Caucasus; but succeeded somewhat in the Balkans. Overall, the West did not realize its ambitions in Central Asia (which was to control the massive oil/gas wealth of the region) because Russia, rebounding for their 1990's slumber, gradually managed to make longterm deals with Central Asian republics and in a sense monopolized their energy distribution. The West was not able to realize its ambitions in the Middle East (which was to exploit Iraq's oil wealth and impose itself on Gulf states) because the Iraqi people did not accept them as liberators, as Washington had initially hoped. The West did not realize its ambition in Afghanistan (which was to become a route through which Central Asian energy would be diverted south to Pakistan and beyond) because of botched deals with Pakistani officials and the Taliban. And, finally, the US was not able to realize its ambitions in the Caucasus (which was to divert Central Asian energy through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the West) because Moscow recently crushed their puppet in Tbilisi.

    Therefore, the major gamble has in a sense backfired severely. These quagmires are now costing the US government hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Don't forget that the US already has approximately a ten trillion dollar debt.

    All this means: The US has a hollow economy with no future.

    What does the US produce anymore? The answer is, only arms. The US is the number one arms exporter in the world. Which is quite revealing, incidentally. Nevertheless, China is becoming the economic superpower, surpassing Japan, Germany and the US. As global demand for energy rises, energy resources dwindle. The undisputed 'natural resource' superpower today is Russia. The world's last major proven reserves today (which are located in Eurasia) are more-or-less controlled by Moscow. In recent years China and Russia have been getting closer, economically, politically and militarily. And when you join together the world's biggest producer of goods (who also happens to have the world's largest military) with the world's biggest holder of natural wealth (who is also a military superpower) - you end up having a 'supermegapower' on your hands.

    Anyway, I would be afraid of what the future holds in America because serious governmental policy in the US is not made by American patriots, they are made by the Federal Reserve (a privately owned institution that controls the US dollar), by international mega corporations, by the Israeli lobby, by the oil lobby, by the defense industry... Unless these people begin placing America's well being ahead of their special interests this nation will implode and its demise will be worst than that of Rome's...

    I suggest you read the following articles:

    Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1549

    The Rise of the Rest: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1548

    “Velvet Revolutions” Backfire in Central Asia: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1833

    Europe and America: Sharing the Spoils of War: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1832

    The Sino-Russian Alliance: Challenging America's Ambitions in Eurasia: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1830

    The Almighty Ruble: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1560

    Deals With Iraq Are Set to Bring Oil Giants Back: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=1814

    And here is an interesting piece from today's New York Times:

    Wall Street’s Next Big Problem



    WHEN I drove to the Beverly Hills offices of Drexel Burnham Lambert on Feb. 13, 1990, the last thing I expected to hear was that the investment bank where I worked was going under. Yet early that morning, we were told that the company was filing for bankruptcy. I was, to put it mildly, blown away. At the time, Drexel had $3.5 billion in assets and was the biggest underwriter of junk bonds. It all seemed like a very big deal at the time. But what’s happening this week makes me pine for the good old days. When Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on Monday, it became the latest but surely not the last victim of the subprime mortgage collapse. Lehman owned more than $600 billion in assets. Financial institutions around the world have already reported more than half a trillion dollars of mortgage-related losses and that figure will most likely double or triple before the crisis exhausts itself.

    But there is a bigger potential failure lurking: the American International Group, the insurance giant. It poses a much larger threat to the financial system than Lehman Brothers ever did because it plays an integral role in several key markets: credit derivatives, mortgages, corporate loans and hedge funds. Late Monday, A.I.G. was downgraded by the major credit rating agencies. This credit downgrade could require A.I.G. to post billions of dollars of additional collateral for its mortgage derivative contracts. Fat chance. That’s collateral A.I.G. does not have. There is therefore a substantial possibility that A.I.G. will be unable to meet its obligations and be forced into liquidation. A side effect: Its collapse would be as close to an extinction-level event as the financial markets have seen since the Great Depression.

    A.I.G. does business with virtually every financial institution in the world. Most important, it is a central player in the unregulated, Brobdingnagian credit default swap market that is reported to be at least $60 trillion in size. Nobody knows this market’s real size, or who owes what to whom, because there is no central clearinghouse or regulator for it. Credit default swaps are a type of credit insurance contract in which one party pays another party to protect it from the risk of default on a particular debt instrument. If that debt instrument (a bond, a bank loan, a mortgage) defaults, the insurer compensates the insured for his loss. The insurer (which could be a bank, an investment bank or a hedge fund) is required to post collateral to support its payment obligation, but in the insane credit environment that preceded the credit crisis, this collateral deposit was generally too small.

    As a result, the credit default market is best described as an insurance market where many of the individual trades are undercapitalized. But even worse, many of the insurers are grossly undercapitalized. In one case in the New York courts, the Swiss banking giant UBS is suing a hedge fund that said it would insure nearly $1.5 billion in bonds but was unable to do so. No wonder — the hedge fund had only $200 million in assets. If A.I.G. collapsed, its hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-related assets would be added to those being sold by other financial institutions. This would just depress values further. The counterparties around the world to A.I.G.’s credit default swaps may be unable to collect on their trades. As a large hedge-fund investor, A.I.G. would suddenly become a large redeemer from hedge funds, forcing fund managers to sell positions and probably driving down prices in the world’s financial markets. More failures, particularly of hedge funds, could follow. Regulators knew that if Lehman went down, the world wouldn’t end. But Wall Street isn’t remotely prepared for the inestimable damage the financial system would suffer if A.I.G. collapsed.

    While Gov. David A. Paterson of New York on Monday allowed A.I.G. to borrow $20 billion from its subsidiaries, that move will only postpone the day of reckoning. The Federal Reserve was also trying to arrange at least $70 billion in loans from investment banks, but it’s hard to see how Wall Street could come up with that much money. More promisingly, A.I.G. asked the Federal Reserve for a bridge loan. True, there is no precedent for the central bank to extend assistance to an insurance company. But these are unprecedented times, and the Federal Reserve should provide A.I.G. with some form of financial support while the company liquidates its mortgage-related assets in an orderly manner. The Fed cannot afford to stand on principle. The myth of free markets ended with the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Actually, it ended with their creation.

    Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/op...ml?ref=opinion
    Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

    Նժդեհ


    Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

      Russian economy solid enough to ride out world crisis - PM Putin



      The Russian economy is strong enough to see out the current global financial crisis, the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Tuesday. Markets were unsettled by the fallout from the mortgage crisis in the United States and the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers, with Russian stocks plummeting. "We have no doubt that the safety nets that have been put into place in the Russian economy over the past few years will work to good effect," Putin said during a meeting with the Azerbaijani president. Earlier Tuesday, Russia's benchmark RTS and MICEX indexes plunged 11.47% and 17.45%, respectively, compounded by the withdrawal of capital from the country. "We are studying the possibility of using long-term instruments by the Central Bank," Putin said. "We will act carefully and judiciously." He added that the Finance Ministry had injected 150 billion rubles ($6 billion) into the Russian financial market in liquidity provided to domestic lenders through repo auctions, while the Central Bank contributed 325 billion rubles ($13 billion) to the repurchase auctions. "Tomorrow the Finance Ministry plans to more than double the figure, offering 350 billion rubles ($14 billion)," the prime minister said. Putin said the worldwide crisis was certainly affecting the Russian economy because it was a part of the global economy, but stressed that it would have no problem riding out the bumpy patch. President Dmitry Medvedev said Monday the Russian market was not in danger and ordered the government to boost liquidity. A Russian Central Bank deputy chairman said Tuesday there was no need to boost lending to banks. "There is no need to expand lending to banks, at least for the time being," Konstantin Korishchenko said. He said the Central Bank's current priority was to sustain liquidity levels in the banking sector to enable its smooth operation. The Russian Cabinet met late Tuesday to discuss Russia's financial markets and what measures should be taken to stabilize the situation. The meeting was chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, but no details of the discussions were announced.

      Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080916/116857981.html

      Russian MP Has Dirt on Western Banks



      Andrey Kokoshkin, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Science and High Technology and deputy leader of the United Russia faction in the Duma, has declared that Russia should shed its “excessive piety” toward Western banks in light of the bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers Holdings. In an interview with RBC, Kokoshkin emphasized that there are deep roots to the events in the United States. For the last 20-25 years, he said, the management of Western banks has engaged in increasingly risky projects, resulting in a heightened level of management of credit organizations. Kokoshkin advised the Russian government to pay heed to the fact that the U.S. government did not come to the aid of Lehmann Brothers. Russia, he said, should become involved in the settlement process in the interest of the national banking sector. “It is a question of economics that goes beyond general politics,” he said. The Russian government, Kokoshkin continued, should provide aid to Russian credit organizations to enable them to overcome the crisis in liquidity and prevent a general banking crisis in Russia. He noted that Russia has built up sufficient reserves to minimize the consequences of a crisis. Kokoshkin also stressed that it was necessary to consult with and exchange experience with Asian partners that have overcome their crisis.

      Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13226/Ru...anking_sector/
      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

      Նժդեհ


      Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

        Putin the Terrible is the new grave threat to the universe...

        *****************************

        Why Putin should scare us



        He’s an ethnic nationalist with a mystical sense of Russian destiny. Cold and pragmatic, he won’t play by the world’s rules.


        Possessing a clear vision of where he wants to go and the ruthlessness to get there, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is the world's most effective national leader in power. He also might be the most misunderstood. Grasping what Putin's about means recognizing what he isn't about: Despite his KGB past and his remark that the Soviet Union's dissolution was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century, Putin isn't nostalgic for communism. By the time he joined the KGB in the mid-1970s, the organization was purely about preserving the power structure — not upholding abstract philosophies. Far from being a Marxist, Putin belongs to a long tradition of aggressive Russian nationalists. A complex man, he's cold-bloodedly pragmatic when planning — as both his rise to power and his preparations for the recent invasion of Georgia demonstrated — yet he's imbued with a mystical sense of Russia's destiny. The ambitious son of a doctrinaire communist father and a devout Orthodox mother, Putin's straight from the novels of Feodor Dostoevski (another son of St. Petersburg)

        Putin's combination of merciless calculation and sense of mission echoes an otherwise different figure, Osama bin Laden. In both cases, Western analysts struggle to simplify confounding personalities and end up underestimating them. These aren't madmen but brilliant, driven leaders who flout our rules. Nonetheless, Putin did carry over specific skills from his KGB career: As a former intelligence officer myself, I'm awed by his ability to analyze opponents and anticipate their reactions to his gambits (Russia is, of course, a nation of chess masters). Preparing for the dismemberment of Georgia, the prime minister accurately calculated the behavior of that country's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, of President Bush, of the European Union and of the Russian people. He knew he could get away with it. Putin has a quality found in elite intelligence personnel: the ability to discard all preconceptions when scrutinizing a target. And when he decides to strike, he doesn't look back. This is not good news for his opponents, foreign or domestic. Among the many reasons we misjudge Putin is our insistence on seeing him as "like us." He's not. His stage-management of the Georgia invasion was a perfect example: Western intelligence agencies had been monitoring Russian activities in the Caucasus for years and fully expected a confrontation. Even so, our analysts assumed that Russia wouldn't act during this summer's Olympics, traditionally an interval of peace.

        Putin had been conditioned to read the strategic cards differently: The world's attention would be focused on the Games, and key world leaders would be in Beijing, far from their crisis-management staffs. Europe's bureaucrats and senior NATO officials would be on their August vacations. The circumstances were ideal. It has also become a truism that Putin's foolish for relying on oil, gas and mineral revenue while failing to diversify his economy. But Russia's strongman knows what he's doing: He prefers a wealthy government to a wealthy society. Putin can control a handful of oligarchs whose fortunes flow from a narrow range of sources (once Russia's richest man, Mikhail Khodorkovsky sits in prison for crossing the Kremlin), but a diversified economy would decentralize power. Putin's obsession with control — another national tradition — serves an overarching purpose: restoring Russia's greatness. He realizes he can't restore a Soviet Union that sprawled deep into Europe. What he hopes is to reconstruct the empire of the czars, from eastern Poland through Ukraine and the Caucasus to Central Asia. Putin's expansionist model comes from Peter the Great, but his methods resemble those of Ivan the Terrible, not least when it comes to silencing dissent. The main thing the prime minister has salvaged from the Soviet era is the cult of personality. He knows what Russians want — a strong czar — and his approval ratings have exceeded 80%.

        Does this ruthless, focused leader have a weakness? Yes: his temper. Despite his icy demeanor, Putin's combustible. He takes rebuffs personally and can act impulsively — and destructively. Instead of lulling Europeans into an ever-greater dependence on Russian gas, he angrily ordered winter shut-offs to Ukraine and Georgia, alarming Western customers. Rather than concealing the Kremlin's cyber-attack capabilities, he unleashed them on tiny Estonia during a tiff over relocating a Soviet-era memorial — alerting NATO. Putin's invasion of Georgia was also personal. In addition to exposing the West's impotence in the region, he meant to punish Georgia's defiant president. The lengths to which Putin was prepared to go in a personal vendetta should worry us all. Such outbursts of temper suggest that Putin's campaign to restore Russia's greatness could end very badly. We needn't take his dispatch of a naval squadron to Venezuela or bomber flights over U.S. Navy carriers seriously — they're staged for his domestic audience and militarily absurd. But Putin's willingness to use naked force against regional democracies suggests that, like so many strongmen before him, he'll ultimately overreach. Meanwhile, our next president will have to cope with this brilliant, dangerous man. That's going to require the experience and skills to exploit every element of our national power; to convince Europe that appeasement will only enlarge Putin's appetite; and to draw clear lines while avoiding drawn guns. Above all, our president will have to take Putin's measure accurately and not indulge in wishful thinking. Managing Putin's Russia could emerge as our No. 1 security challenge.

        Source: http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/...tin-shoul.html
        Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

        Նժդեհ


        Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

          Originally posted by Armenian View Post
          Putin the Terrible is the new grave threat to the universe...

          For some he is a threat for others he is a Saviour. Brilliant, unpredictible and the charisma itself. Perhaps the reason people have become more interested in Russia.

          Comment


          • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

            Originally posted by Armenian View Post
            Russia Seeks Fellowship



            Moscow tries to restore its peacekeeping reputation in the region
            Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will hold talks today with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Meindorf residence outside Moscow. Moscow was the initiator of this summit meeting. Kommersant has learned that Russia will propose a package of peace initiatives for a settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict to Aliyev and try at the same time to guarantee that Baku will steer clear of Western political and energy games.

            Divide and Conquer

            The meeting between the presidents had been discussed since the beginning of the month. On September 3, they spoke by telephone, also at Russia’s initiative. Natalia Timakova, the Russian president’s press secretary, told Kommersant then that the two leaders had reached an agreement in principle on high-level negotiations. Last week, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov visited Moscow and Medvedev and Aliyev spoke again on Sunday to agree on the agenda for today’s meeting. A Kremlin source called the close contact between the countries logical, considering Azerbaijan’s role in the region. Sources in the presidential administration say that the time for negotiations between Medvedev and Aliyev had come even earlier. Medvedev has met with Armenian President Serge Sargsyan twice this month, on September 2 at presidential residence in Sochi and three days later at the Moscow summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which Azerbaijan is not a member of.

            Relations between Baku and Erevan will receive particular attention in today’s Russian-Azerbaijani talks, and specifically within the context of a settlement in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. In the final declaration of the CSTO summit, it is noted that the allies are “concerned with the growing military potential and escalation of tensions in the Caucasus region.” Many observers, including those in Baku, think that phrase should be interpreted as a warning to Azerbaijan, where the need to retake “territories occupied by Armenia” is voiced from time to time. Source in the Russian Foreign Ministry close to today’s negotiations say openly that Moscow would like a firm guarantee from Baku that it will not consider military means to solve the Karabakh problem either before or after the October presidential elections there.

            Moscow, which, along with France and the United States, took part in searching for a settlement to the Karabakh conflict as part of the OSCE Minsk group, plans to propose its own plan to Azerbaijan and Armenia. The first point of that plan is the organization of a meeting between Aliyev and Sargsyan in Russia with the participation of Medvedev. Kommersant has learned from sources near the Armenian president that Sargsyan has already approved that idea. Today Medvedev has to obtain Aliyev’s consent. To interest the Azerbaijani president in a meeting with the other two presidents, Moscow will propose a discussion of a sensitive question for Baku, that is, jurisdiction over the Lacha corridor, which connects Nagorny Karabakh with Armenia. Specifically, they are to conciliate a operation along the route to allow the safe movement of people and cargo along it without transferring it to the jurisdiction of Erevan or Stepanakert.

            A Weak Link

            Besides peacekeeping initiatives, Medvedev has other important topics that demand urgent discussion with Aliyev. After Russia’s military operations against Georgia, Azerbaijan has been the subject of increased attention from the West. High-ranking guests from Washington are becoming common in Baku, and Aliyev even received U.S. Vice President xxxx Cheney this month. Baku was the energy capital of the region last week when it hosted the international business forum “The Gas and Oil Potential of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan: Energy, Economy, Ecology. Partnership Strategy.” First Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Yagub Eyubov assured attendees there that his country is prepared to offer its infrastructure for deliveries of Central Asian hydrocarbons to the West. Bypassing Russia, of course. Immediately after Aliyev’s Moscow talks, U.S. Assistant Deputy Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, who is cochairman of the OSCE Minsk group, will visit the Azerbaijani capital.

            The West’s intensive attention to Azerbaijan does not make Russia happy, and even more so since Azerbaijan is allied with Georgia, which has severed diplomatic relations with Russia, through the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) organization. Therefore, Russia is extremely interested in seeing to it that Azerbaijan follow through on any impulses to strengthen military ties with the West. The U.S. already offered last year to create a training camp on the Caspian like the ones in Georgia. A Kommersant source who manages Azerbaijani affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry said that one of the key topics in today’s talks between the two presidents will be a written ban on the presence in the Caspian region of outside armed forces. Ideally, Moscow would like principles for activities in the Caspian to be outlined in a convention. That convention is already being drafted. Russia is prepared to expand its military partnership with Azerbaijan as compensation and to fulfill its obligations to deliver armored military equipment, parts for it and firearms.

            Energy partnership is a traditional topic of talks between the Russian and Azerbaijani presidents. A source in the Kremlin mentioned with satisfaction that, after operational lapses in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline during the conflict in Georgia, Azerbaijan has applied to increase the transport of its oil through the Baku-Novorossiisk pipeline. An unsettled question is the volume of Gazprom’s maximum gas purchases during the development of the second line at the Shah Deniz gas field. That is sure to be a difficult conversation, considering that Baku quite willingly responded to the West’s proposal that it participate in the Nabucco project, the implementation of which has taken on new impetus since the Russian-Georgian war.

            Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p1026605/r...jan_relations/
            I'd like to see what Russia put on the table for Azerbaijan.

            On one hand, the "divide and conquer" history of Russia does not bode well for Artsakh's de jure independence. On the other hand, Russia is "negotiating" with Azerbaijan through strength, thus Russia will get what it wants. This can be good for Armenia and Artsakh if one take credence in the notion that a strong Armenia is in Russia's interest.

            In any case, this situation underscores Armenia's vulnerability at being beholden to the whims of the Russian Federation.

            Also, Aliyev recently said the Russian initiatives are a "Good basis for solving Armenia conflict".
            Is he saying this due to Russian arm-twisting (i.e. he has no choice but to "compromise on the Artsakh issue), or is he sincere (i.e. he believes these initiatives favor Azerbaijan and their "territorial integrity")?
            Last edited by crusader1492; 09-17-2008, 10:06 AM.

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            • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

              Originally posted by crusader1492
              I'd like to see what Russia put on the table for Azerbaijan. On one hand, the "divide and conquer" history of Russia does not bode well for Artsakh's de jure independence. On the other hand, Russia is "negotiating" with Azerbaijan through strength, thus Russia will get what it wants. This can be good for Armenia and Artsakh if one take credence in the notion that a strong Armenia is in Russia's interest. In any case, this situation underscores Armenia's vulnerability at being beholden to the whims of the Russian Federation.
              All we can do now is speculate. But our speculation should be derived from a keen understanding of the region's political nature and a healthy understanding of politics in Moscow. However, you got it right when you said Moscow is approaching Azerbaijan from a position of strenght. In reality, Baku's political choices today are drastically more 'limited' than they were before the Russo-Georgian war. Big talk from Baku is for its domestic consumption. With the oil/gas route to the West cutoff at Georgia, what is Azerbaijan to do? What choices does it have? Thus, Moscow did not even have to approach Baku, it was Baku that came crawling to Moscow. Moscow knows Baku is not a natural partner in the region, Baku is simply a hostage waiting its chance to try to flee once more. Thus, having established a secure foothold in Armenia, it would be absolutely stupid of Moscow if it decided to undermine Armenia's strenght in the Caucasus. Don't pay much attention to political posturing or diplomatic rhetoric, be it from Yerevan, be it from Moscow, be it from Baku, be it from Ankara... Instead, try to see what is occurring on the ground. Based on what we are seeing on the ground today, there is nothing to fear, in my opinion.
              Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

              Նժդեհ


              Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

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              • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                According to this post by Meline http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...&postcount=212 , they are discussing keeping Lachin within de jure Azerbaboon border. That already hints that everything outside NKAO and Lachin have already been handed over to the baboons by Russia.
                Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

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                • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                  Originally posted by Federate View Post
                  According to this post by Meline http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...&postcount=212 , they are discussing keeping Lachin within de jure Azerbaboon border. That already hints that everything outside NKAO and Lachin have already been handed over to the baboons by Russia.
                  That article is from the Kommersant. Is that a respectable source?

                  Comment


                  • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                    Originally posted by crusader1492 View Post
                    That article is from the Kommersant. Is that a respectable source?
                    Smart question. I wish more of us would be asking smart questions like this. Kommersant is not a government news source. In Russia, anything that is 'not' owned by the government is most probably owned by Western interests or Jews. If you want official Moscow news in English you should read:

                    Ria Novosti: http://rian.ru/

                    or

                    Regnum: http://www.regnum.ru/english/

                    or

                    Russia Today: http://www.russiatoday.com/en

                    Thus far, Moscow had been silent regarding this matter. However, if there was talk about handing over Armenian held territory today, especially areas west of the officially recognized borders of Nagorno Karabagh, you can be sure there would have been major stirrings in Yerevan and Stepanakert. I see no such tension today. On the contrary, I see them being very self-confidant. Either Armenian politicians and Artsakhis are asleep, or they know that there are no problems.

                    Note: Just prior to the Armenian elections early this year, Kommersant posted a new report stating that Levon Ter Petrosian had flown to Moscow for a private meeting with Putin... When Armenian reporters asked officials in Moscow whether or not the news report was true, Russian officials more-or-less stated - if you want legitimate news you need to consult Ria Novosti...

                    Then again, in the wacky world of Eurasian politics, one should never be to sure of anything.
                    Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

                    Նժդեհ


                    Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

                    Comment


                    • Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

                      Russia Eyes 18 Percent of Arctic Shelf



                      Russia will stand for its interests in Arctic, Interfax reported with reference to the RF Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev. According to Patrushev, Russia is to determine northern borders, where Arctic is. The figure is 18 percent of the RF territory, i.e. that region will account for 20,000 kilometers of the state border. Patrushev said Russia should stand for its interests in Arctic. At the same time, it realizes that other Arctic states, Canada, Norway, Denmark and the United States, they will stand for their interests as well. So, the research activities are important, but “it is vital to carry them out faster and more accurate.” Earlier, Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev emphasized at the sitting of the RF Security Council that the external frontier of Russia’s continental shelf in Arctic is to be legally determined in the nearest term. “We need solid regulatory and legal framework, governing Russia’s activities in Arctic. First of all, we have to elaborate and pass the Federal Act On Southern Border of Russia’s Arctic Zone,” Medvedev said.

                      Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13237/Ar...lf_Patrushev_/

                      Arctic resources central to Russia's energy security - Medvedev



                      The Russian president said Wednesday that the use of Arctic resources was central to the country's energy security. "According to estimates by experts, the Arctic shelf may have about one-fourth of the world's shelf hydrocarbon reserves, and the use of these reserves is a guarantee of Russia's overall energy security," Dmitry Medvedev said at a Russian Security Council session. He also said Russia's competitiveness on global markets depended on Arctic resources, stressing the need to adopt a law establishing the frontiers of Russia's Arctic zone. "We need a firm normative-legal base regulating Russia's activity in the Arctic. First of all the federal law on the southern border of Russia's arctic zone should be completed and adopted," he said. Medvedev also said that Russia would next look to establish "the external frontier of the continental shelf." "This is a very important task," he said. The Russian leader said about 20% of Russia's GDP and 22% of national exports were produced in the Arctic. "Our first and main task is to turn the Arctic into Russia's resource base of the 21st century," Medvedev said, adding that a whole number of problems, including the protection of Russia's national interests in the region, needed to be solved. Medvedev also said a priority task for Russia was the modernization of the transport infrastructure in the north of the country. He said that "roads and air links" had deteriorated in the post-Soviet period, adding that the absence of "modern river and sea ports," plus the "dilapidation of the fleet, including icebreakers," was "a tangible obstacle in implementing the rich investment potential of the Arctic." Medvedev criticized the irrational use of resources in Russia's northern regions. The secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said Wednesday the government was to draft the fundamentals of Russian state policy in the Arctic by December 1. "We should defend our interests, but we understand that Canada, Norway, Denmark and the U.S., as well as Russia, will defend their interests," Patrushev said. Russia has undertaken two Arctic expeditions - to the Mendeleyev underwater chain in 2005 and to the Lomonosov ridge last summer - to back Russian claims to the region. The area is believed to contain vast oil and gas reserves and other mineral riches, likely to become accessible in future decades due to man-made global warming. Russia said earlier it would submit documentary evidence to the UN of the external boundaries of the Russian Federation's territorial shelf in 2009. Under international law, the five Arctic Circle countries - the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Norway and Russia - each currently have a 322-kilometer (200-mile) economic zone in the Arctic Ocean.

                      Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080917/116894260.html
                      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

                      Նժդեհ


                      Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

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