Will Armenia get Ararat back from Turkey?

[Anonymouse]

Yes Anonymouse, and maybe that could happen, if not for an illegal blockade!! Because of that we don't even have the chance to move back into our old lands. Also many of your examples of lost lands such as Rome losing Gaul are thousands of years old. In Armenia's case it was supposed to have Ararat as recent as the 1920s, but Turkey invaded it and stole it's land, not to mention genocide. Jews had a genocide and because the US felt bad for them because of that they were given lands which they hadn't lived in for thousands of years! If they can get those back, I don't see why not Armenia should just forget about Ararat (though of course they are THE JEWS after all and so it could be expected and held to a different standard than the world would with Armenians). The situations are very similar, and Armenia's border is so close to Ararat it's hard to admit it didn't once own it and should at least have access to it. Though at the same time I do realize how this is impossible as long as Turkey owns it, and that the political situation makes any thought of getting it back in any way impossible.

First of all, I don't want to go into the problems of nationalist histories, or why they are wrong. Second of all, Jews took those lands by force, and colonization. No one "gave it to them".

Theoretically, if Armenians breed alot, and the population expands, they will have no choice but to expand as well. If the population had been growing since independence and not emigrating, there would be at least 6-7 million in Armenia.

The point is the past is not the determining factor of what the future will be. Those lands pre 1920 were not Armenian lands, they were part of the Ottoman empire which Armenians inhabited. Don't forget that Armenians had not yet become a nation-state with defined boundaries.

[TJ]

First off those lands were part of Armenia as drawn up by President Wilson at the time and ratified in the treate of Sevres.
Secondly, 6-7 million? are you nuts, do we look like bangladeshis or something, how do you go from 3.5 million in 1989 to "6-7 million" in 15 years?
Let me explain a formula to you, where T=doubling time, which is basically what you are saying(3.5 times 2 equals 7 right?) so T=70/annual growth rate. In this case T equals 15 years, now 15=70/annual growth rate. there fore Annual growth rate in order for Armenia to go from 3.5 to 7 million in 15 years would have to be 70/15 which as my handy desktop calculator tells me it 4.667. Do you realize what an incredible growth rate that is? The average global pop growth rate right now is about 1.4%. Armenia's population as well as the rest of Europe is forecasted to decrease in the next 50 years. It is forcasted that the population of Armenia will be 2.3 million in 2050, i myself dont really put much faith into this, because i find it hard to believe that these people dont forecast any influx of diasporans in the next 50 years. but who knows, i guess we will just have to wait and see. I will be an old man by then 63 to be exact. The only thing that gets me wishing to live for eternity is to see the future of Armenia, other than that, i want to die before i turn 80.

[Tres Bien]

didint the turks invade armenia by force /coloniazation? And obove all that even commited an act of genicode on the armenian popluation, and DROVE us out of our lands?

[Anonymouse]

First off those lands were part of Armenia as drawn up by President Wilson at the time and ratified in the treate of Sevres.
Secondly, 6-7 million? are you nuts, do we look like bangladeshis or something, how do you go from 3.5 million in 1989 to "6-7 million" in 15 years?
Let me explain a formula to you, where T=doubling time, which is basically what you are saying(3.5 times 2 equals 7 right?) so T=70/annual growth rate. In this case T equals 15 years, now 15=70/annual growth rate. there fore Annual growth rate in order for Armenia to go from 3.5 to 7 million in 15 years would have to be 70/15 which as my handy desktop calculator tells me it 4.667. Do you realize what an incredible growth rate that is? The average global pop growth rate right now is about 1.4%. Armenia's population as well as the rest of Europe is forecasted to decrease in the next 50 years. It is forcasted that the population of Armenia will be 2.3 million in 2050, i myself dont really put much faith into this, because i find it hard to believe that these people dont forecast any influx of diasporans in the next 50 years. but who knows, i guess we will just have to wait and see. I will be an old man by then 63 to be exact. The only thing that gets me wishing to live for eternity is to see the future of Armenia, other than that, i want to die before i turn 80.

What I failed to mention in the demographs aside from positive growth rate, no emigration, were the Armenians from the diaspora who did not move back to Armenia.

[IAmMadAtAC]

Wilson mandate!

Second of all, Jews took those lands by force, and colonization. No one "gave it to them".

Well this is off the main topic, but yes Israel was given to the Jews. For the past 50 years or so they had been in the process of colonization and taking lands by force, but it was 1948 when the Allied powers granted the mandate of Israel to the Jews (much beacuse of guilt and feeling bad about the Holocaust). If the Allies hadn't internationally recognized Israel (gave it to them) it wouldn't be a country.
Also, like Tigran said there's the Wilson mandate given to Armenia!! Ararat was included in that, as was Ani! Those lands were granted to Armenia, then the Turks invaded and changed that. Serves became inactive. There's no denying those lands were considered "Armenia" by many and Turkish invasion and the major world powers being selectively forgetful of the part are the only things that changed that.

[xBaron Dants]

I am usually the realist diplomat....but, yes, Armenia will get Ararat back from Turkey.

As for Armenia's growth rate, I would think that it will stabilize in a decade or two. Artsakh actually reports positive growth and immigration rates, so there is hope there. And there is the diaspora factor to take note of, as Tigran mentioned (just how much of a factor it may be, Asdvadz kidé).

[Anonymouse]

Well this is off the main topic, but yes Israel was given to the Jews. For the past 50 years or so they had been in the process of colonization and taking lands by force, but it was 1948 when the Allied powers granted the mandate of Israel to the Jews (much beacuse of guilt and feeling bad about the Holocaust). If the Allies hadn't internationally recognized Israel (gave it to them) it wouldn't be a country.
Also, like Tigran said there's the Wilson mandate given to Armenia!! Ararat was included in that, as was Ani! Those lands were granted to Armenia, then the Turks invaded and changed that. Serves became inactive. There's no denying those lands were considered "Armenia" by many and Turkish invasion and the major world powers being selectively forgetful of the part are the only things that changed that.

Mandates and statutes or treaties have no bearing. Palestine was being colonized and inhabited by Jews as early as 1880s, and Arabs ( because they were not Palestinians at the time ) willfully sold land to them. Even then, granting a mandate is not the same as putting it into effect. Force must first accompany any State induced "legality", because all States come into existence through blood spilling, namely violence and war, never by peaceful means.

You seem to be missing the point. However, your post proved only my point further. Politics and "legality" change over time. What were once legal borders are no longer. What once were treaties binding alliances or borders are no longer, as with Sevres, because the Allies had no interest in following up with it, which Ataturk saw to it, just like no one now seriously consider the Atlantic Charter to have any merit.

What matters is that now, the region is not habited by Armenians. It is not in the border of Armenia, nor is there any legal recognition that it is Armenia. It is legally Turkish, and ethnically non Armenian and recognized by the world as such. Therefore, history changes. Once Tigran the Great had an empire, does that mean we are entitled to those lands? The arguement most people present about Ararat ( that it should be ours because it once was ) misses the point. History is not static. It is not a point in time, because it involves changes. Armenia does not even have an adequate population to spread even further into the Ararat valley ( since it will be thinner ), so to simply want lands or to want the Genocide recognized for land acquisition is stupid since no one will hand you any lands. The reason Armenians lost these lands, in my opinion is because of our own faults, not Turks. Sure they committed the Genocide, but alot of the other mishaps in our history are our own fault, which Armenians never want to or like to accept.

With that said, that because it is in our collective Armenian memory that Ararat is a symbol, does not make it so. I already told you the only way to get lands back is to do what Mexicans do. Anything else is an exercise in futility.

[IAmMadAtAC]

What once were treaties binding alliances or borders are no longer, as with Sevres, because the Allies had no interest in following up with it, which Ataturk saw to it, just like no one now seriously consider the Atlantic Charter to have any merit.

It is not in the border of Armenia...

First you say 'over time', and refer to things that become obsolete over decades. I believe the amount of time between Sevres and the next one which gave more land to Turkey (thanks to invasion) was about two years! Those are hardly comprable. Also how can you say Ararat is not bordering Armenia? Ararat (and even more true for Ani) are just about as close as you can get to Armenia. I don't know the exact milage, but Ararat is very close to the Armenian border and Ani is literally two or three miles away.

Also Baron Dants I'm curious as to why you think Armenia will eventually get Ararat? I don't see that in the forseable future in any way, so am curious to see what you know on this.

[Anonymouse]

First you say 'over time', and refer to things that become obsolete over decades. I believe the amount of time between Sevres and the next one which gave more land to Turkey (thanks to invasion) was about two years! Those are hardly comprable.

It is comparable. You don't have to like it. Events take place in history. History is a process and a change, nto static. Turks forcefully removed Armenians and thereby Armenan claims to the land. The past means nothing and doesn't have any bearing on what the future will be. The past is merely there as a reference point, but often misleading.

Also how can you say Ararat is not bordering Armenia? Ararat (and even more true for Ani) are just about as close as you can get to Armenia. I don't know the exact milage, but Ararat is very close to the Armenian border and Ani is literally two or three miles away.

I never said that Ani or Ararat are not next to Armenia. Pay attention. I said they are not within the borders. It means Armenia does not claim it because it falls in Turkey's sphere. With that said, Germany lost all of East Prussia, and it is literally next to it, and after all, it lost it after World War II, does that mean they are going to go and claim it?

[HyeJinx1984]

I am usually the realist diplomat....but, yes, Armenia will get Ararat back from Turkey.

As for Armenia's growth rate, I would think that it will stabilize in a decade or two. Artsakh actually reports positive growth and immigration rates, so there is hope there. And there is the diaspora factor to take note of, as Tigran mentioned (just how much of a factor it may be, Asdvadz kidé).

Only once it is in your loving hands will I ever be optimistic my friend.