Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

[gegev]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

Quite ironic. There is also an alternate position that Turks shouldn't establish diplomatic relations before April 24 to exert maximum pressure on the US NOT to recognize. The threat being that if AG recognition gets accepted by Congress then the deal to establish relations will be off the table.

Doesn't this all sound like a game? i.e. a bit of political ping pong perhaps.

regards,
Ferdi

Absolutely ironic!!! Do you really think that the "option" you suggested is in fact an option. Are you kidding?
I think you made an incorrect quotation. Would you please answer to the part of my original post below, I've underlined. It contains the answer to your "option".

Regards,

Gegev

Geopolitical situation in the world is radically changed.

Several years ago Turkey, perhaps, through establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia, could slow down the AG recognition process. At that point they had the best "know-how" and "new" technologies in the population reproduction and in Turkish - diplomacy (mainly-lying) "Industries".

They thought Turkey can prevent Genocide recognition process even without easing down, a little bit, the pressure exerted on RoA. The hatred against Armenians prevented them to set the "diplomatic trap" for RoA; which could assist them to declare that the Genocide issue is a Turkey – Armenia bilateral problem and only the two countries should discuss and "settle" it during coming "centuries".

But now:

USA democrats won presidential elections; because voters want to return the USA army home, reduce the budget deficit, promote industrial growth and, at the same time, ensure that US strategic interests in the Middle East are not affected.

Democrats are patriots of their country, therefore their primary goal is not to maintain Iraq's territorial integrity; just to accommodate Turkey's national interests (Preventing Kurds to establish a Kurdish state in Iraq) at any cost to USA.

Growing instability in Iraq and collapse of USA projections on creating pro-American United Iraqi government, within reasonable cost and timeframe, failed. Because America wanted do it without breaking it into three states, Kurdish Sunni and Shia; to comfort Turkey’s national interests.

This radically changed political situation, during recent years, in USA. America, using its military superiority, rapidly occupied the country and apparently it was the most easy; first part of their plan.

And now they are unable (mission impossible) accomplish the second part of their plan, and the end, it is apparent, that way USA can not continue this war. Because, after occupying the country, when Americans are located inside, in large numbers, throughout Iraq, they can not use their only advantage; mass destruction weapons.

Meanwhile the Iraqi's have the most effective military means in that situation; the "alive weapons", suicide bombers (PS. – Christians don't have); who can not be attacked by the US mass destruction weapons, used at the start, to win Sadam. In this situation the bombardiers, helicopters artillery, tanks etc. are useless, most of time.

USA voter is aware that the dollar; the US most effective political and military tool is gradually becoming a second grade currency.

I guess, to adjust the situation above, and promote its national interests, US may act this way:

To justify next steps;

USA congress, first of all, needs to pass the bill; on the Armenian Genocide. Which, of cause, will serve as a legal and justifiable argument for the next steps below:

Letting, not preventing, Kurds create a puppet Kurdish state in Iraq, which will be a natural ally for America. Preliminarily, of cause, ensuring that; most of the Iraqi oil reserves are controlled by Kurds and make sure that they are properly armed to confront Shias, Sunni and eventually – Turkey to free their occupied land.

Expel Turkey form NATO, because USA will have several opportunities for relocating military bases in the region; Kurdistan, Georgia and perhaps the Sunni state.

Relocate military bases from Turkey to Kurdistan.

Return US army home.

Doing so America will enjoy, almost world wide support; because the action will help the justice to prevail. And for USA most important thing is that it will, first of all, serve American national interests. Of cause Kurds and Armenia will benefit from this too. But, you know, this is not the primary goal of the action above.

What happened to France-Turkish relations after passing the Armenian Genocide bill … nothing! Now Turks are handling their politics with France more cautiously and politely, than ever before, that is the results are positive for France.

Regards Gegev

[ArmSurvival]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

Because in reality recognition is primarily for the benefit of the Armenian diaspora anyway.

No its not. Armenians in Armenia need to know that Turkey recognizes its past atrocities in order for us to believe it will not happen again in the future. The diaspora is safe from Turkey's actions, but citizens of Armenia are not.

Obviously, Turkey denies everything, so naturally, we believe they would do it again if they had the chance, and then cover it up. You can't have normal relations with someone who commits horrendous crimes, and then says "whats all the fuss about?". Despite this, Armenia's government has told Turkey many times that they are ready to have normal relations with no preconditions. Turkey insists on having preconditions.

Very suspect behavior by Ankara.

[ArmSurvival]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

So your argument is predicated on the belief that once the US passes AG recognition then this should in turn trigger Turkish self reflection, guilt, acceptance and protection to RoA? Pardon my cynicism but I seriously doubt it. The future security and economic well being of Armenia will always be tied to the goodwill of its neighbours and wider geopolitics not because of a AG voting congressman representing Kansas or Puerto Rico.

My point is that Armenia has a right to refuse relations with a state who denies such a serious crime while simultaneously closing their mutual border and by giving military aid to a country (Azerbaijan) whose president (Aliyev) claims that Armenia's capital belongs to his country. By denying past crimes and present injustices, while aiding future invasions, Turkey has an obvious agenda to wipe Armenia off the map. Thus, Armenia has every right, as a matter of national security, to put preconditions on its relations with such an aggressive country. Also, Armenians in other countries are free to take necessary steps to protect Armenia in any shape or form from this aggression.

However, Armenia has said it is open to having normal relations with no preconditions. Turkey insists on preconditions. So from any angle you look at it, Armenia is not obligated to reach out or change its behavior.

But I'm still quite puzzled by this question, what do you think will follow after the US congress has recognized?

It won't pass.

[gegev]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

Because in reality recognition is primarily for the benefit of the Armenian diaspora anyway. I seriously don't believe it will change much on the ground, post recognition.

Recognition is in the benefit of superpowers and all Armenians. And the AG will be accepted worldwide at most by the year 2010.

What comes after recognition of the AG by US?

a) Turkey, after a week of bitter cries and barking, will eventually understand that after passing the bill, international community US, France etc have all the legal bases to initiate AG contribution procedure in the international court; under UN auspices.

b) Thus taking into account the danger Turkey will become a puppet for the world superpowers. And it will do everything the Superpowers command, including opening borders with Armenia without any precondition.

Regards,

Gegev

[hitite]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

Recognition is in the benefit of superpowers and all Armenians. And the AG will be accepted worldwide at most by the year 2010.

What comes after recognition of the AG by US?

a) Turkey, after a week of bitter cries and barking, will eventually understand that after passing the bill, international community US, France etc have all the legal bases to initiate AG contribution procedure in the international court; under UN auspices.

b) Thus taking into account the danger Turkey will become a puppet for the world superpowers. And it will do everything the Superpowers command, including opening borders with Armenia without any precondition.

Regards,

Gegev

Armenian wishful thinking and creativity at its best. You guys have been wishing Turks damnation for the past 1000 years and it still hasnt ended. Obviously it aint working. Why dont you just accept the fact that Turks are freaking here to stay....... as a change... it might make you happier.

[gegev]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

Almost comical. The sad part is that some leaders in the Armenian diaspora continue to perpetuate such futile thinking instead of encouraging dialogue and interaction. The reality is that your so-called 'Superpowers' will not even lift an eye lid unless it serves their own interest first and foremost.

In my post below I've said that the Superpowers currently need it, first of all, therefore in the underlined part of my post, you quoted, they come first (all Armenians are in second place). So you are right that it is impossible carry out (splitting Turkey apart) if only Armenians want doing it.

But I regret to report to you the sad news;

the superpowers are eager to redraw Turkey's map, to accommodate their own interests first of all (as communicated in my/others posts here), after passing the bill of appropriate/decent justification (AG) before doing it.

Regards,

Gegev

Recognition is in the benefit of superpowers and all Armenians. And the AG will be accepted worldwide at most by the year 2010.

What comes after recognition of the AG by US?

a) Turkey, after a week of bitter cries and barking, will eventually understand that after passing the bill, international community US, France etc have all the legal bases to initiate AG contribution procedure in the international court; under UN auspices.

b) Thus taking into account the danger Turkey will become a puppet for the world superpowers. And it will do everything the Superpowers command, including opening borders with Armenia without any precondition.

Regards,

Gegev

[hrai]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

So eager in fact that they've sent the leader of the worlds only super power, Obama, to address the Turkish Parliament and backslap and shake hands with its leaders.

Actually the realtor has just sent in his surveyor.

[gegev]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

So eager in fact that they've sent the leader of the worlds only super power, Obama, to address the Turkish Parliament and backslap and shake hands with its leaders.

You are right. The Superpower’s head backslapped the Turks, after telling them the very things, that they had been begging; not to speak about aloud, for a long time. Then Obama had a super-supper with them.

[hipeter924]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

You are right. The Superpower’s head backslapped the Turks, after telling them the very things, that they had been begging; not to speak about aloud, for a long time. Then Obama had a super-supper with them.

Its obvious, don't you see? Obama says he will recognize the genocide , but in reality he will never.

Obama will make statements saying it occurred, perhaps he will even allow the bill to go through congress but he will not actively support the bill and just like the one under the Bush administration it will fail.

As I thought all along Obama is just Clinton v1.1. he lies and takes your votes because it gets him elected.

PS: If I am wrong...which seems unlikely...I will be happy...but all this meeting shows is that Obama is weakening to Turkey and will not support the Armenian Genocide Recognition bill through congress.

[gegev]

Re: Turkey will be split apart as Iraq is.

Its obvious, don't you see? Obama says he will recognize the genocide , but in reality he will never.

Obama will make statements saying it occurred, perhaps he will even allow the bill to go through congress but he will not actively support the bill and just like the one under the Bush administration it will fail.

As I thought all along Obama is just Clinton v1.1. he lies and takes your votes because it gets him elected.

PS: If I am wrong...which seems unlikely...I will be happy...but all this meeting shows is that Obama is weakening to Turkey and will not support the Armenian Genocide Recognition bill through congress.

Do you agree that?;

1. Obama will withdraw the US troops out of Iraq, because it costs milliards of dollars to America and in current situation US cannot afford it. Cutting down military expenses would enable America to fight the economic crisis a little bit effectively.

2. After the US troops are back home. Who will insure that US interests in Iraq (oil reserves, etc.) are handled in the way America wants; the pro Iranian Shias, Sunis or the Federative Republic of Iraq?

The only answer is; the Kurdish Republic of Iraq! Because united (Federative) Iraq is impossible to maintain after US troop’s withdrawal.

3. After making the Kurdish Republic of Iraq America’s successor in Iraq, which is inevitable, Turkey will consider US as its #1 enemy.

Note please that in past, when Turks refused Americans suggestion to use their military bases against Iraq; means that the AG recognition by USA was not that a big threat for Turkey.

4. But now US has stronger means to keep Turks in obedience. After passing the AG bill in Congress Obama may terrify Turks telling that, after the AG bill is passed, there are all legal and justifiable arguments in place to start, together with EU and other countries, AG compensation procedure under UN auspices.

Under that threat Turkey will agree with everything USA and EU suggest, to keep the lands of the perished under its control, a little bit longer.

What happened to France-Turkish relations after passing the Armenian Genocide bill … nothing! Now Turks are handling their politics with France more cautiously and politely, than ever before.

The same thing will happen to US-Turkey relations, after a week of bitter cries and barking, Turks will express their readiness to do everything the bosses require, providing that the AG compensation process is frozen for a while.

Regards,

Gegev