Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

[Federate]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

As crazy and wicked as Ghaddafi is, he's done some good for Libya and has said a lot of things I agree with. He just doesn't know how to market himself in front of the world. Everyone perceives him as some crazy tribal leader with way too much power, which he is to a large extent.

One of the truest things he said was during a UN speech a couple years ago. He was talking about the UN Charter, and how it states that all countries, big or small, are equal. He then said it was hypocritical when only a handful of countries have permanent seats and when only a few have veto power. He said all countries were clearly not equal, and that if the UN isn't going to follow its own charter then they should get rid of it. He then proceeded to rip a copy of the charter in front of the delegates of all the member states! Who else would be so blunt and brazen to do something like that? He really sets himself up to be singled out.

He also publicly backed the IRA and said they were freedom fighters who were trying to unite Ireland, at a time when the entire world was condemning them as terrorists. That type of honesty and boldness is not well-suited in international politics.

I pretty much agree, especially the bolded parts. Ghazzafi's problem was that he was too honest on his worldviews while much of the world still pretends realpolitik doesn't exist. This is why he's portrayed as being crazy. Your example of the UN incident is perfect, people don't understand the symbolism of him ripping the UN charter infront of the UN general assembly because whatever Western news they are watching says the man's crazy and doesn't explain to them, the average viewer who lacks critical thinking skills. So he indeed kinda sets himself up because he dares to stray from the typical monotonous and scripted speeches of the rest of the world.

But some of the things they try to tie to his personality aren't strange at all, in fact they are pretty common. For example, they target Ghazafi's fear of flying over water all the time and somehow tie this to him being crazy. WTF? I thought that's one of the most common phobias. He's also afraid of staying on top floors of hotels on visits. Yeah, the man doesn't want to be stuck on the 15th floor when a fire breaks out, or he's simply afraid of heights. Both are common phobias. Instead he sometimes sets up a tent in traditional bedouin fashion. He's crazy for using his culture's traditional methods and not wearing a suit and sleeping in a 10.5 star hotel .

Anyways, it seems he is content with tightening his grip on Tripoli and a few other scattered strongholds for the time being. I think at the moment he is planning to do either one of two things: Gathering all his forces for a massive offensive (possibly straight at Benghazi), or waiting around for weeks/months until the protesters wear themselves out and start fighting amongst themselves. After all, the opposition doesn't have any semblance of leadership, they seem like a pretty splintered group up to this point. However, I think that can change rather quickly, especially since the west has an interest in toppling him and will no doubt start grooming leaders amongst the rebels.

The opposition needs to take Tripoli to topple his regime. Ghaddafi knows this and he's going to sit there and hope the rebels attack him where he is strongest. I know much of the oil fields are in the hands of rebels, but I'm not sure it will positively effect the rebels in the short term, especially since a large percentage of workers in the oil industry are foreigners who are on their way out.

The UN is still talking about using sanctions against Ghazafi which at this point is as effective as freezing the credit card of someone who's about to commit murder. Now, the Americans and Europeans are debating a no-fly zone over Libya (once again, national sovereignty flies out the door for Libya) which would hamper Ghazafi's aerial capabilities. But lucky for him, the Russians oppose such a measure and would prefer to stick to sanctions. Obviously, the Russians do not want to see a military takeover of Libya by the NATO butchers.

The Libyans are not skilled enough to operate the oil fields on their own, as KanadaHye was mentioning. They will not be able to use it to their full potential and Saudi Arabia knows this so they are taking advantage by producing more oil to pick up Libya's slack.

I'm not sure how I see Ghazafi surviving this. He must deal a quick swift blow to the Western-backed rebels and then quickly mention dialogue, reforms and more Libyan role in its oil economy so they think it's useless to fight since their goal has been achieved. The problem with this is that if Ghazafi militarily wins or starts winning in Libya, NATO might start its illegal invasion which is when Ghazafi might as well commit suicide or die in a hail of bullets to turn into a martyr. He can also wait this out but that might risk the fracture of his country by the establishment of two rival governments. Add this to a severely tribalised society and the future of Libya might be dim. Also, half of Libya is still under Ghazafi's control. I think the south in its entirety is still loyal to Ghazafi and that's a big portion though I suspect it's highly underdeveloped given its distance from the Mediterrenean.

[KanadaHye]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

I'm not sure how I see Ghazafi surviving this. He must deal a quick swift blow to the Western-backed rebels and then quickly mention dialogue, reforms and more Libyan role in its oil economy so they think it's useless to fight since their goal has been achieved. The problem with this is that if Ghazafi militarily wins or starts winning in Libya, NATO might start its illegal invasion which is when Ghazafi might as well commit suicide or die in a hail of bullets to turn into a martyr. He can also wait this out but that might risk the fracture of his country by the establishment of two rival governments. Add this to a severely tribalised society and the future of Libya might be dim. Also, half of Libya is still under Ghazafi's control. I think the south in its entirety is still loyal to Ghazafi and that's a big portion though I suspect it's highly underdeveloped given its distance from the Mediterrenean.

I agree, I don't see how this can happen without dropping the world from a recession into a big fkn' depression.... just by looking at the number of foreign employees working in Libya benefiting from the oil economy who would suddenly become unemployed from rather highly paid work would put another nail in the coffin for western economies. Either some sort of deal needs to be brokered or this isn't going to end up too pretty since there doesn't seem to be an easy way out for anyone if Gaddafi doesn't step down and the U.S. military doesn't back off.

[retro]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

Gaddafi still has several thousand troops and the West don't seem especially keen to invade Libya. However Gaddafi's regime will struggle to worm their way out of this mess.

The growing unrest in the Arabic world among Islamic states is leading to concern that the demonstrations are being driven more by a desire for stricter Islamic rule than for democratic reforms. Many of the protesters are being organized by hardline Islamic organizations. Although some of the Arab leaders being challenged are brutal dictators like Libya�s Moammar Gadhafi, many are considered secular rulers and allies of the U.S. These uprisings have troubling similarities to the Iranian revolution of 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini came to power by hiding his intentions of creating despotic rule by clerics behind the false promise of democratic reforms.

http://townhall.com/columnists/rache...rld/page/full/

[ArmSurvival]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

I pretty much agree, especially the bolded parts. Ghazzafi's problem was that he was too honest on his worldviews while much of the world still pretends realpolitik doesn't exist. This is why he's portrayed as being crazy. Your example of the UN incident is perfect, people don't understand the symbolism of him ripping the UN charter infront of the UN general assembly because whatever Western news they are watching says the man's crazy and doesn't explain to them, the average viewer who lacks critical thinking skills. So he indeed kinda sets himself up because he dares to stray from the typical monotonous and scripted speeches of the rest of the world.

But some of the things they try to tie to his personality aren't strange at all, in fact they are pretty common. For example, they target Ghazafi's fear of flying over water all the time and somehow tie this to him being crazy. WTF? I thought that's one of the most common phobias. He's also afraid of staying on top floors of hotels on visits. Yeah, the man doesn't want to be stuck on the 15th floor when a fire breaks out, or he's simply afraid of heights. Both are common phobias. Instead he sometimes sets up a tent in traditional bedouin fashion. He's crazy for using his culture's traditional methods and not wearing a suit and sleeping in a 10.5 star hotel .

I didn't know about those other things you mentioned about him. Ya man, its all about marketing. Media, especially in the west, are very talented in making regular things look crazy, and they do it by exploiting people's insecurities, of which there is no shortage in the west. So many insecure people attempt to feel comfortable about their own problems/shortcomings by watching the news and hearing about so-called nutjobs like Ghadafi. The illogical portraits that media paints are validated by insecure people and those without critical thinking abilities. The media's job is to assassinate a person's character in order to make the physical assassination look more realistic.

The UN is still talking about using sanctions against Ghazafi which at this point is as effective as freezing the credit card of someone who's about to commit murder. Now, the Americans and Europeans are debating a no-fly zone over Libya (once again, national sovereignty flies out the door for Libya) which would hamper Ghazafi's aerial capabilities. But lucky for him, the Russians oppose such a measure and would prefer to stick to sanctions. Obviously, the Russians do not want to see a military takeover of Libya by the NATO butchers.

I didn't know the Russians were opposed to it. Time after time Russia prevents the west from overrunning things with their UN puppets.

The Libyans are not skilled enough to operate the oil fields on their own, as KanadaHye was mentioning. They will not be able to use it to their full potential and Saudi Arabia knows this so they are taking advantage by producing more oil to pick up Libya's slack.

No doubt with the OPEC cartel's blessings.

I'm not sure how I see Ghazafi surviving this. He must deal a quick swift blow to the Western-backed rebels and then quickly mention dialogue, reforms and more Libyan role in its oil economy so they think it's useless to fight since their goal has been achieved. The problem with this is that if Ghazafi militarily wins or starts winning in Libya, NATO might start its illegal invasion which is when Ghazafi might as well commit suicide or die in a hail of bullets to turn into a martyr. He can also wait this out but that might risk the fracture of his country by the establishment of two rival governments. Add this to a severely tribalised society and the future of Libya might be dim. Also, half of Libya is still under Ghazafi's control. I think the south in its entirety is still loyal to Ghazafi and that's a big portion though I suspect it's highly underdeveloped given its distance from the Mediterrenean.

I agree, I don't see Ghadafi running away. Mainly because he has nowhere to run, and the risk of him being prosecuted outside Libya is much higher than puppets like Mubarak or Ben Ali who basically towed the American line even during their abdications.

I think its very suspicious that the opposition, in contrast to Tunisia and Egypt, has no real platform: I haven't heard complaints of lack of jobs, poverty, social immobility, etc. Maybe you heard something I didn't?

They also don't have a face. Who are the leaders? Who are the major players in the rebel camp? What are their plans for Libya? Nobody knows. Its even more suspicious when you consider they actually control hundreds of miles of territory, in contrast to Egyptian and Tunisian protesters. Who the hell is administering these areas? The soldiers who defected to the rebel side? Or some type of political leadership? So many foreign journalists and so few answers.

[retro]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

I agree, I don't see how this can happen without dropping the world from a recession into a big fkn' depression.... just by looking at the number of foreign employees working in Libya benefiting from the oil economy who would suddenly become unemployed from rather highly paid work would put another nail in the coffin for western economies. Either some sort of deal needs to be brokered or this isn't going to end up too pretty since there doesn't seem to be an easy way out for anyone if Gaddafi doesn't step down and the U.S. military doesn't back off.

The vast majority of foreign workers in Libya are from developing nations, not the West. The few Westerns who where working in Libya are very senior engineers and management types.

I can see a lot of foreign firms getting badly burned in Libya. However I doubt that Italian, Egyptian and Tunisian investments in Libya are at risk. Since Libya can't afford to completely renege on it's agreements and fall out with it's neighbours. However with this crowd you never know quite what they will do next.

However if they do manage to topple Gadhafi then a foaming at the mouth, Islamist will be the next clown to take over Libya.

[Federate]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

I didn't know the Russians were opposed to it. Time after time Russia prevents the west from overrunning things with their UN puppets.

Yeah it's a sign that there is still is some form of sanity. Just found an article stating China and France oppose too. What a relief.
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Libya: Russia, China join France in opposing military action against Gaddafi

Russia and China have expressed misgivings about military action against the Libyan regime, and are opposing the establishment of no-fly zones over the strife-torn north African country.

1:42PM GMT 01 Mar 2011

Jiang Yu, China's foreign ministry spokeswoman, said Beijing is "concerned" about the prospect about military action against Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi, and expressed the hope that the violence in the country could instead be "resolved peacefully through dialogue."

Sergey Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, also ruled out the idea of establishing a no-fly zone, saying that the world should instead "concentrate on the full implementation" of sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council.

"We need to avoid the superfluous," he said.

Earlier, Francois Baroin, a French government spokesman, said military action to dislodge Libyan ruler Col Gaddafi "is not a priority." "The priority is humanitarian aid," he added.

All three countries have veto powers in the Security Council, so their approval is needed for a UN-mandated no-fly zone.

David Cameron, the Prime Minister, has said his government supports the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya, a position that has been backed by Australia. The United States, whose Sixth Fleet operates out of Italy, said it was moving U.S. naval and air forces closer to Libya and working on contingency plans.

European states, who obtain a substantial part of their oil and gas supplies from Libya, have been exploring a wide ranging of options to end the violence in Libya, fearing that high oil prices could inflict damage on their fragile economic recovery.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8354737/Libya-Russia-China-join-France-in-opposing-military-action-against-Gaddafi.html

[KanadaHye]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

The vast majority of foreign workers in Libya are from developing nations, not the West. The few Westerns who where working in Libya are very senior engineers and management types.

I can see a lot of foreign firms getting badly burned in Libya. However I doubt that Italian, Egyptian and Tunisian investments in Libya are at risk. Since Libya can't afford to completely renege on it's agreements and fall out with it's neighbours. However with this crowd you never know quite what they will do next.

I don't know about the other countries but Canada has sufficient trade with Libya and probably about 1500-2000 engineers/construction personnel. SNC Lavalin an engineering company out of Montreal was building the Benina International Airport in Benghazi, the Great Man-Made River (? lol) and the Guryan prison in Tripoli. Not to mention of course the oil companies.

In 2010, Canada imported $24,613,563 worth of goods from Libya. Libya bought almost 10 times that amount — $246,118,859 — from Canada.(that's a lot of couscous, lol)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...-in-libya.html

[Federate]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

Աբդել Նասերը թող չի տեսնէ։
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Arabs may impose Libya no fly zone


The Arab League has said it may impose a "no fly" zone on Libya in co-ordination with the African Union if fighting continues in Libya.

Wednesday’s Arab League ministers' meeting in Cairo rejected any direct outside military intervention in Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi is trying to put down a revolt threatening his four decades in power. They reiterated their condemnation of his use of force.

The Arab resolution called on the Libyan government to respond to the "legitimate demands of the Libyan people" and to stop bloodshed. The Libyan authorities must lift restrictions on media and mobile networks and allow the delivery of aid.

The Arab League demanded "the preservation of the unity of Libyan lands and civil peace" -- similar to the language it used in the run-up to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Libya suspension

Their resolution confirmed Libya's suspension from the organisation until it responded to demands such as allowing freedom of expression.

"The situation in Libya is sorrowful and it is not correct that we accept it or live with it," said Amr Moussa, the League's secretary general, speaking at the opening session.

"The Arab League will not stand with its hands tied while the blood of the brotherly Libyan people is spilt," Moussa said.

Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin reporting from Egypt's capital, said: "At this stage, all the Arab League is going to consider or at least study with the member states of the African Union, the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone over Libya. That obviously depends on a great deal of military capabilities and more importantly what type of fly zone is going to be imposed.

"When I was speaking to an official at the Arab League, he said that imposing a no-fly zone may be detrimental to air traffic over Libya and may not provide the kind of cover that is needed to protect the civilian population.

The Arab League has suspended the membership of Muammar Gaddafi's government in protest at its crackdown on protesters who have risen up against his rule.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/20113218130353466.html

[Federate]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

Libya's military capabilities

[KanadaHye]

Re: Muammar Gaddafi and Libyan crisis

Libya's military capabilities

They say the same thing about North Korea but they're still scared as hell to touch it.... and who is this young lad that just outgrew his training pull ups to be commenting on Libya's military capabilities?