Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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I can see it will suit Russia for Armenia and Azerbaijan to have a war.

Armenia has threatened and has carte blanch to destroy Azerbaijan's oil/gas industry.

If this ever happens the whole of south Caucus will be under Russian hegemony.

because

destruction of Azeri oil/gas industry will destroy Azeri economy,
eliminate competition from Azeri output.
It will also eliminate feeders into the Azeri network.
I have in mind Kazakhstan potential Turkmenistan and also Iran.

Also Georgia’s reasons for western orientation will collapse since it will be fully dependent (with a begging bowl) on Russian gas.


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[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Giving us weapons for free or cheap comes at a cost. We're being dragged more and more into the Russian economic sphere which is pulling down our economy. Russia is under sanctions and their currency has depreciated around 45 to 50% as you know. We're unable to diversify our economy as needed because Russian-armed Azerbaijan might start a large-scale military operation by Russian orders when we try to take a couple of steps towards other countries for economic diversification. Even the Armenia-Iran railway was not welcomed by Russians because they consider it might drag away Armenia's dependency on Russian gas and good. Failing to diversify our economy away from sanctioned Russia's economic woes will lead to increased migration from Armenia, and you know most migrants go to Russia..so..that's why I'm concerned when Lavrov says they're gonna offer more goodies to Azerbaijan.

Sure it comes at a cost. I guess you just realized what I have been saying for decades that Armenia is not a sovereign country.
I think the scenario Londontsi mentioned benefits Armenia and Russia but it will come at the cost of Armenian and Azeri lives. It will also put Georgia in a difficult position. We are in the midst of great change in our region, indeed the whole world is in the midst of change.

[Artsakh]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

We are in the midst of great change in our region, indeed the whole world is in the midst of change.

I still have not forgotten President Sarkissian's conference when he first spoke of this "coming change." This came well before the Ukranian mess, before the annexation of Crimea by Russia, before the plunge in world oil prices (with its direct effect on our dear neighbor), and before the current activation in Turkey of the Kurdish issue, which we are as of yet uncertain as to where it will end.
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Sarkisian Predicts Decline Of Azerbaijan

Հրապարակված է՝ 05.06.2013

Azerbaijan will lose much of its economic might in the next few years because of dwindling oil revenues and a massive waste of public money, President Serzh Sarkisian claimed on Wednesday.

“The picture in the region will totally change within three or four years, and we must be prepared for that,” he said, opening a session of Armenia’s National Security Council. “Experts anticipate the inevitable Azerbaijani fiasco already in the next two or three years.” “Amid a chronic decline in oil and gas production the authorities of our neighboring country are continuing to spend their accumulated resources in a way that could not have been planned even by their adversaries,” he said.

Oil output in Azerbaijan, the backbone of the domestic economy, is on track to decrease for a third consecutive year in 2012 after a decade of rapid expansion that has earned the country tens of billions of dollars in revenue. Some of that money has been spent on a military build-up which the Azerbaijani government says will eventually help it win back Nagorno-Karabakh and other Armenian-controlled territories.

Sarkisian claimed that President Ilham Aliyev’s regime will also increasingly face anti-government protests in the coming years despite jailing scores of its political opponents and stifling free speech. “Azerbaijani youths were scared and silent as recently as two years ago but are now discussing, albeit in small groups, that the time to have their say will come soon,” he said. “And tomorrow is very close.”

The Armenian leader indicated that his comments are a response to Aliyev’s regular statements about a widening wealth gap between Armenia and Azerbaijan and its implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Aliyev has repeatedly stated that his country will eventually force the Armenians to make serious concessions because of having one of the fastest-developing economies in the world. Armenia remains mired in poverty and cannot compete with Azerbaijan anymore, he has said.

Sarkisian laughed off such claims, saying that Armenia’s economy grew much faster than Azerbaijan’s in 2012 and will continue expanding robustly in the years ahead. “We need to continue modernizing and diversifying our economy in order to gain more favorable positions in new regional regroupings anticipated in several years from now,” he told the National Security Council.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/25008261.html

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Sure it comes at a cost. I guess you just realized what I have been saying for decades that Armenia is not a sovereign country.
I think the scenario Londontsi mentioned benefits Armenia and Russia but it will come at the cost of Armenian and Azeri lives. It will also put Georgia in a difficult position. We are in the midst of great change in our region, indeed the whole world is in the midst of change.

Brother don't be so pessimist , just because something doesn't fit to your translation of freedom and independent nation doesn't mean its not so.Your are looking some things by wrong prism . yes we are not independent by energy means or rich financially but that doesn't mean we are not free as nation , We made that decision 26 years before .
By same logic brother more than 70% of UN members are vassal states , free food for the lucky and strong ones !

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Brother don't be so pessimist , just because something doesn't fit to your translation of freedom and independent nation doesn't mean its not so.Your are looking some things by wrong prism . yes we are not independent by energy means or rich financially but that doesn't mean we are not free as nation , We made that decision 26 years before .
By same logic brother more than 70% of UN members are vassal states , free food for the lucky and strong ones !

I am not referring to energy nor finance. I am referring to the most basic of needs-physical security. Armenia is dependent not because she cannot get fuel or money but because she cannot protect herself from the 100 million turks around her. National defense is among the most basic of needs secured by a state and ours cannot secure it. You can slice and dice it anyway you like, so long as we cannot protect our own people, we have no business declaring sovereignty.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Army

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I am not referring to energy nor finance. I am referring to the most basic of needs-physical security. Armenia is dependent not because she cannot get fuel or money but because she cannot protect herself from the 100 million turks around her. National defense is among the most basic of needs secured by a state and ours cannot secure it. You can slice and dice it anyway you like, so long as we cannot protect our own people, we have no business declaring sovereignty.

But your logic is flawed .The results could be found in our past history. The current borders is the result of our alone fighting against one Victorious army . Its only Up to us to protect hence the army that we keep standing in the borders.
Every bodily able armenian should hit the gym and keep in good shape . just in case that's what im doing !.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I am not referring to energy nor finance. I am referring to the most basic of needs-physical security. Armenia is dependent not because she cannot get fuel or money but because she cannot protect herself from the 100 million turks around her. National defense is among the most basic of needs secured by a state and ours cannot secure it. You can slice and dice it anyway you like, so long as we cannot protect our own people, we have no business declaring sovereignty.

Most countries depend on NATO to help them out......we have ESTO

Armenia is a sovereign country and a young democracy (I know you love that word, lol)

Full forward boys...we have Armenia, we took Artsakh, and we getting stronger everyday while our enemy grows weaker and more scared of the future against us.
We don't need to fight 100 million child molesters......Iran and Russia would never allow that even if Armenia didn't exist no expansion of Turkey will be tolerated towards fake Azerbaijan.

[UrMistake]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Most countries depend on NATO to help them out......we have ESTO

Armenia is a sovereign country and a young democracy (I know you love that word, lol)

Full forward boys...we have Armenia, we took Artsakh, and we getting stronger everyday while our enemy grows weaker and more scared of the future against us.
We don't need to fight 100 million child molesters......Iran and Russia would never allow that even if Armenia didn't exist no expansion of Turkey will be tolerated towards fake Azerbaijan.

Guys , just look Syria ..they cannot take over them ...Assad is strong , what you think would happen if he was weak and the Alevites did not fight so well ?? Its only up to them to win the war ...i know they have big enemies but also big allies ..no matter what in the final table its up to them .
Just what happened in Ukraine and Georgia . So no , no big HELP from CSTO other than technical logistical support and equipment ..the dirty work is only to be done by our hands.
Cyprus and Turkey 1974(NATO MEMBERS) ..remember what happened ...small Cyprus BIG TURKEY ...still few thousand soldiers without heavy support and weaponry resisted the annihilation..



Parseh Piperian , enlisted Armenian-Greek soldier, member of ELDYK ( Hellenic forces of Cyprus) ,killed in action 16 August 1974 in Cyprus. The turkish units broke the ceasefire and launched an assault to his camp with heavy weapons. His corps buried in unknown location along with his comrades in arms. Years later the body of Parseh identified by the method of Dna.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Half of us are born Warriors (this is something you may not know about yourself but its in Armenian DNA) and the other half money makers.