Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Lori]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The ARF is in a coalition government with the people you referred to as being corrupt.
You mentioned that the blockade by Turkey is one of the main problems of the state of Armenia, and I agree with you , but how do you envisage removing that blockade ? What did the ARF do to its community in Lebanon, accept a Garbage landfill in their municipality?. The ARF as a political party is as corrupt as all the other parties it showed that in Lebanon and Armenia but saying all this, I respect their spread of nationalism and struggle for Armenia.

The ARF isn't perfect. Monte made that clear in many of his writings. The cling to Wilsonian Armenia is just childish and downright stupid, although it can serve as a good starting point in a potential haggle. What I meant by vote ARF: If the citizens of Armenia support the ARF and help them increase their role in the national assembly, then we will see change. As for the coalition government, the ARF just recently rejoined the government and has only been given a small slice of the pie. Increasing the role of the ARF in the coalition government through continued support for them is the best route Armenians can take. The rest of these parties are nothing but a bunch of Russian puppets and Western shills. The only party that can make a difference is a party with an actual ideology. With a goal. Republicans have nothing of the sort, they are big tent. Heritage exists solely to lead Armenia to destruction by betraying our only ally. These "parties" are not parties of the people or ideology but parties of one or two individuals.

What is astonishing is that, it seems as if the government has managed to keep the majority of the corruption out of the Defense Ministry and General Staff. (Somewhat out of the General Staff, we've seen nothing TOO serious out of there. The recent resignation in connection to the Panama papers has only strengthened my confidence in the military.) I mean, is there ANY dirt on Seyran Ohanyan? I feel confident in him, the man gave his leg for his people. There is of course some beuacracy that exists, but that exists in every state no matter how democratic.

Our MoD is nowhere near as corrupt as the Azerbaijani MoD, which is the secondary source of corruption within the country. Billions of dollars are stolen out of their maintenance and defense budget. Remember that AK-74M manufacturing facility that was supposed to be built years ago? Can you guess why it never happened?

Babayan’s Back: Former Karabakh strongman returns to Armenia after four-day war



Nagorno Karabakh’s former powerful defense minister Samvel Babayan has returned to Armenia after spending several years abroad in de-facto political “exile” as a figure who had fallen out of favor with Armenia’s ruling elite.

The 51-year-old military commander and politician was considered to be Karabakh’s most powerful man in the 1990s. He began to lose his clout dramatically after being arrested in 2000 and later convicted and imprisoned for plotting an assassination against the Karabakh president. After being released having served only four years of his 14-year jail term, Babayan attempted to engage in politics in Armenia, but the Dashink party he established did not achieve any major success.

Babayan, who reportedly spent the last several years in Moscow, Russia, told 7or.am upon his return to Armenia earlier this week that his “main mission” is still in Karabakh, which saw its deadliest fighting with Azerbaijan since the 1994 truce in early April.

“People will decide the rest,” added the once feared general, whose return to Armenia appears to have created quite a stir in Azerbaijani media as well.

“I never take offense at our people,” Babayan said in an extensive interview with the news website that has openly backed an emerging political party of Vartan Oskanian, who served as Armenia’s foreign minister during Robert Kocharyan’s 1998-2008 presidency and is still considered to be the ex-leader’s confidante.

“Whether I was in Karabakh, Armenia or abroad, the security concerns of my country, my people have always been on my mind. I have the full grasp of the military situation, the problems at the frontlines and possess all necessary information,” he stressed. “Moreover, living abroad all these years I have established numerous ties with Russia’s influential military and political circles.”

Babayan confirmed that back in 2013 he wrote a letter to President Serzh Sargsyan, warning about Azerbaijan’s possible aggression and laying out his concerns and suggesting solutions that he thought would help avoid clashes or minimize loss of life should hostilities resume. He did not provide details of that letter, however.

At the same time, Babayan voiced skepticism over the possibility of a compromise being achieved with Azerbaijan at the negotiating table. “They [Azeris] want to take all. We can deter Azerbaijan only by ensuring a military balance that would be in favor of Armenia and Karabakh,” he said.

Babayan said he did not have plans to join any political party in Armenia, but added that he could see people who share the same ideology with him. “With their new mentality these people can have a serious impact also on other political forces. And I have great hopes that they will have a success,” he said, without elaborating.

https://www.armenianow.com/en/news/politics/2016/05/26/armenia-samvel-babayan-karabakh-return-politics-security/3893/

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Sorry brother, but this is a myth propagated by Turk media. There are over 3-3.1 million Armenians living in the Armenian states and Javakh and all together there are around 3.7 million Armenians living in the Caucasus/Kuban (North and South). If we had the former territories of the first republic and a proper repatriation program, this myth would quickly disperse. Emigration rates are not nearly as bad as Georgia, who has recently experienced a massive decline in population due to invasion and war.



I think you are forgetting that the Karabakh elite made their careers on the battlefield of Artsakh. They are the military. The government is literally run by war veterans and former commanders. Civil War? What is this nonsense lol? Again, killing off the leadership of the country because of corruption allegations (Which are legitimate) is probably asking for repeat of 1918-1920 events. Don't suggest such silly doomsday forecasts brother.



If you have followed the events in Ukraine, you will learn that the corruption will just repeat itself without proper legislation. New oligarchs will find their way in.



Vazgen was a Russian "goon", and he was gunned down in parliament. Russians did nothing. During the 2008 and 2010 protests the Turks to our East attempted to seize military positions during the political disruption.

The main element that lead to Azerbaijani defeat in the last war was political instability and lack of motivation. Armenia wasn't stable, but it wasn't chaotic. Suggesting to create such a situation in Armenia is treacherous. The best thing Armenian people can do is increase the role of the ARF, an ideological party, in the government by voting for them. These parties of power that exist in the post-Soviet space are major sources of corruption and diminishing their presence is the best thing any citizen can contribute to. The ARF's foreign policy is ideal as well, and I am more worried about the protocols with the Western Turks than I am about corruption. Armenia can NOT abandon territorial claims. The return of our lands will solve many of these issues.

I appreciate some of your sentiments and similarly advise against a revolution but some of these criminals are so egregious that they cannot any longer be ignored or tolerated- they are not only an embarrassment, they are dangerous and really hurt Armenia and NKR.

I agree about Vazgen and I agree about the ARF.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The ARF isn't perfect. Monte made that clear in many of his writings. The cling to Wilsonian Armenia is just childish and downright stupid, although it can serve as a good starting point in a potential haggle. What I meant by vote ARF: If the citizens of Armenia support the ARF and help them increase their role in the national assembly, then we will see change. As for the coalition government, the ARF just recently rejoined the government and has only been given a small slice of the pie. Increasing the role of the ARF in the coalition government through continued support for them is the best route Armenians can take. The rest of these parties are nothing but a bunch of Russian puppets and Western shills. The only party that can make a difference is a party with an actual ideology. With a goal. Republicans have nothing of the sort, they are big tent. Heritage exists solely to lead Armenia to destruction by betraying our only ally. These "parties" are not parties of the people or ideology but parties of one or two individuals.

What is astonishing is that, it seems as if the government has managed to keep the majority of the corruption out of the Defense Ministry and General Staff. (Somewhat out of the General Staff, we've seen nothing TOO serious out of there. The recent resignation in connection to the Panama papers has only strengthened my confidence in the military.) I mean, is there ANY dirt on Seyran Ohanyan? I feel confident in him, the man gave his leg for his people. There is of course some beuacracy that exists, but that exists in every state no matter how democratic.

Our MoD is nowhere near as corrupt as the Azerbaijani MoD, which is the secondary source of corruption within the country. Billions of dollars are stolen out of their maintenance and defense budget. Remember that AK-74M manufacturing facility that was supposed to be built years ago? Can you guess why it never happened?



https://www.armenianow.com/en/news/p...security/3893/

Here Here ^^^^ Agree. ARF has its flaws but they have the best interests of Armenians in their hearts ( at least more so than any other party) though some of their goals are unrealistic and unachievable.

Babayan was a war hero but became an oligarch himself and he was a warlord- he tried to kill Ghukasyan, after the war but in some ways, its good that he's back. The guy is a proven tactician and winner. I also have a hard time believing Seyran Ohanian is tainted though I could be very wrong.

In any event, with Babayan back on the scene, the Azeris are going to sh#t their pants.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

ՀԱՊԿ ՕԱՀՈւ «Կոբալտ 2016» համատեղ վարժանքները

[Artsakh]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Babayan’s Back: Former Karabakh strongman returns to Armenia after four-day war

Welcome back. This is very welcoming news indeed!

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Samvel Babayan: I am back to Artsakh and it is for the people to decide the rest

by Tatevik Shahunyan

Thursday, May 26, 18:28

The situation in the Karabakh conflict zone triggers concerns today,
ex-defense minister of Artsakh Samvel Babayan says in an interview
with 7.or.am portal.

He stresses that in 2013, when he was abroad, he wrote a confidential
letter to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, warning him of possible
military threats by Azerbaijan. However, Babayan hints that his
recommendations remained unheard.

When analyzing the recent developments in the Karabakh conflict zone,
Babayan thinks that the Armenian side's accusations against Russia
about supply of military hardware to Azerbaijan are biased: "Russia
has never refused to supply Armenia with modern weapons. Moreover, as
a member of the CSTO, we have had an opportunity to purchase weapons
on preferential terms. In the 1990s, both we and Azerbaijan purchased
weapons from Russia. We won the war and Baku started complaining that
Russia allegedly helped us. This is wrong tactics and unfortunately we
have also fallen into error today. One should never pin victory hopes
on foreign forces, it is first of all necessary to rely on one's own
forces and capacities. Russia has never fought and will never fight in
Karabakh instead of us," Babayan says, noting that Russia will always
strive to develop good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. It
needs both states. However, given Armenia's CSTO membership and the
tense relations between Russia and Turkey, Moscow gives higher
priority to the relations with Armenia.

Babayan stresses that in international relations "the policy of
so-called kindness" does not play or cannot play a serious role. "For
instance, we liberated Kelbajar, Zangelan, Fizuli without any
international "kindness". Quite the opposite, we did it in defiance of
the will of superpowers and international community," Babakyan says.
When asked why the Armenian authorities failed to purchase the
necessary quantity of arms from Russia, Babayan replies that after the
meeting in Kazan in 2011, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
made opposite conclusions. "Before that, Azerbaijan had managed to
considerably modernize its arsenal and after the meeting that process
received a fresh impetus. The leadership of Armenia, on the contrary,
thought that refusing the proposed settlement principles Azerbaijan
would find itself in isolation and would not dare to unleash
hostilities. At that time, the Armenian authorities took a decision to
focus on other problems. Unlike the leadership of Azerbaijan, the
political elite of Armenia did not consider security to be a priority
before the April war," Babayan says.

Meanwhile, Babayan thinks that Azerbaijan seeks to destroy the current
status quo. "Azerbaijan will not make compromises during the
negotiations. It wants everything and we can restrain it only by
maintaining the military balance in favor of the Armenian party," he
says.

Babayan believes that the situation can be improved today, but it
would be wrong to think that that there is much time for it. "It will
take at least 10 months to completely modernize the army and to raise
the management to a qualitatively new level. This also concerns
purchase of modern weapons and ammunition", he said. Babayan promises
to give more detailed assessment of the April war in the near future.
When speaking of his upcoming plans, Babayan says that he intends to
leave for Karabakh, because he states that "his key mission is to be
conducted in Artsakh. The rest should be decided by the people". He
stresses that he is not going to join a political force. "But I see
people with a new mentality, who can seriously influence the political
processes and I hope they will succeed," Babayan says.

Samvel Babayan is a military, statesman and political figure, Lt.
General, Artsakh National Hero. Since 1992 he had been coordinating
the defense operations of NKR regions, participated in the development
of Shushi liberation operation, participated in the international
talks for settlement of the Karabakh conflict, was commander of the
NKR Defense Army. He signed the ceasefire treaty of Armenia and NKR
with Azerbaijan on behalf of the NKR. He was a member of the
government and security council at the NKR President. In 2001, he was
accused of organizing assassination attempt on NKR president Arkady
Ghoukassyan that resulted in serious wounds of the Karabakh president,
one of his bodyguards and the driver. He was sentenced to 15 years of
imprisonment but was pardoned by President Arkady Ghoukassyan on
September 17 2010 on occasion of the 13th anniversary of the
referendum of independence of NKR. He founded the Justice opposition
bloc in Armenia.

In March 2005, Samvel Babayan said in an interview with RFE/RL
Armenian Service that the sides to the conflict are not able to go on
big concessions. Specifically, he said, the sides cannot assume the
responsibility for mutual concessions. In response to the question
about what particular concessions Nagorno Karabakh could make, Samvel
Babayan said: "It is a fact that Nagorno Karabakh should go on
concessions, cede some territories for peace, and peace not just in
NKR, but also in the Caucasus, for the future. However, it depends on
how high will be the guarantee of its security. Some link the security
to army, but I don't think so. Security is connected with these very
territories and there are serious issues that should be settled within
these frameworks. In this light, the status of Nagorno Karabakh is a
secondary issue," Babayan said. It is necessary to settle the issue of
refugees, forced migrants. They should return to their homes and
confidence-building problems must be settled politically. As for the
possibility of the resumption of military actions, the ex-minister of
defense of NKR said: "If the parties fail to resolve the conflict
peacefully then a war between them will take place sooner or later."
He said the steps taken by the Azerbaijan army show that it is
preparing for war," Samvel Babayan said.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.arminfo.am_index.cfm-3Fobjectid-3DB4FD17E0-2D2345-2D11E6-2DBD9C0EB7C0D21663&d=DQIBaQ&c=clK7kQUTWtAVEOVIgvi0NU5BOUHhpN0H8p7CSfnc_gI&r=LVw5zH6C4LHpVQcGEdVcrQ&m=z3YSpDcSC_SiDNow0tZgI0Pt_SajPRzOHTIbvIzKlBU&s=46rr5140nsB5fjAL7FAV6Xe3eauPGvMqpjOaiGGQ8VQ&e=

[DieHard69]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You know what I hate about us Armenians, were very doubtful every time something bad happens to us we feel doubtful, we should not let our enemies think we are weak because they will use it to there own advantage. This problem has been with us since 1991, we should be proud of how much we have accomplish rather than sorrow for the old days, if you want some examples here.

We showed that 2 borders closed isn't going to stop us improveing, we fought an enemy that was 15 times stronger than us yet we destroyed them, we treat our minorities better while our Caucasian neighbors treat them as 2nd class citizens and force them in a fight they do not want to be involved, and here we are thinking our country has a no future.

What I'm trying to say is that if we have problems we express and fix them not express and go buy a ticket to a foreign country and think all hope is lost.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You know what I hate about us Armenians, were very doubtful every time something bad happens to us we feel doubtful, we should not let our enemies think we are weak because they will use it to there own advantage. This problem has been with us since 1991, we should be proud of how much we have accomplish rather than sorrow for the old days, if you want some examples here.

We showed that 2 borders closed isn't going to stop us improveing, we fought an enemy that was 15 times stronger than us yet we destroyed them, we treat our minorities better while our Caucasian neighbors treat them as 2nd class citizens and force them in a fight they do not want to be involved, and here we are thinking our country has a no future.

What I'm trying to say is that if we have problems we express and fix them not express and go buy a ticket to a foreign country and think all hope is lost.

I think we all agree with that and I do agree Armenians are overly pessimistic but....I think one of the ways to improve Armenia and Artsakh, to make it better is to punish those like Liska and other blatantly dangerous oligarchs- they hurt the war effort, they hurt the economy, they victimize the people. They make Armenia weaker and unsafe. Even if Armenia and Artsakh only got rid of them and did nothing else, you would see some improvement.

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia should build and mount them on a vehicle similar to this (watch the video). The days being "protected" in armored vehicles are gone. They are literally "killing traps" with modern guided missiles.

http://military.polaris.com/en-us/co...-military-tan/

We don't know what the rocket motor fire signature is. It could be so big that could burn driver sitting so close and open.

[Lori]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I will breakdown Samvel's arguments and give my opinion on them

When analyzing the recent developments in the Karabakh conflict zone,
Babayan thinks that the Armenian side's accusations against Russia
about supply of military hardware to Azerbaijan are biased

Not true at all, his ties to the Russian Generals are showing. Russia is pursuing is fruitless endeavor at reintegrating Azerbaijan into their sphere. Azerbaijan is GONE. It is a Turkish puppet state and has been since that Elchibey. There are even rumors that the Azerbaijani military and interior ministry are controlled by Turkish Generals.

Unlike the leadership of Azerbaijan, the
political elite of Armenia did not consider security to be a priority
before the April war,"

This is obvious. Our government got too comfortable with the status quo and let their guard down.

Meanwhile, Babayan thinks that Azerbaijan seeks to destroy the current
status quo. "Azerbaijan will not make compromises during the
negotiations. It wants everything and we can restrain it only by
maintaining the military balance in favor of the Armenian party," he
says.

They are unwilling to compromise because they have the technological and numerical upperhand. The oil revenue and support from Turkey have allowed the Azerbaijanis to technologically modernize their armed forces to a ridiculous level. They are currently a lightyear ahead of us in terms of technological and this IS NOT to be underestimated.

Babayan believes that the situation can be improved today, but it
would be wrong to think that that there is much time for it. "It will
take at least 10 months to completely modernize the army and to raise
the management to a qualitatively new level. This also concerns
purchase of modern weapons and ammunition"

This is the part where many get confused.

Armenia is lacking severely in these areas:

Armored vehicles (Severely lacking; Technological disparity)

Self-propelled artillery (severely lacking)

Air superiority/Multirole fighters (severely lacking

Armenia is superior to Azerbaijan when it comes to ballistic missile forces. We simply have way more which can overwhelm their air defense network. The acquisition of Iskander would only strengthen this.

Armenia has also closed a very important gap - MLRS

The upcoming acquisition of TOS-1A and Smerch MLRS has fully closed this disparity. This is a success achieved in the arms race

We need to begin full-scale modernization of our main battle tanks and we need to begin acquiring more modern IFVs.

In March 2005, Samvel Babayan said in an interview with RFE/RL
Armenian Service that the sides to the conflict are not able to go on
big concessions. Specifically, he said, the sides cannot assume the
responsibility for mutual concessions. In response to the question
about what particular concessions Nagorno Karabakh could make, Samvel
Babayan said: "It is a fact that Nagorno Karabakh should go on
concessions, cede some territories for peace, and peace not just in
NKR, but also in the Caucasus, for the future. However, it depends on
how high will be the guarantee of its security. Some link the security
to army, but I don't think so. Security is connected with these very
territories and there are serious issues that should be settled within
these frameworks. In this light, the status of Nagorno Karabakh is a
secondary issue," Babayan said. It is necessary to settle the issue of
refugees, forced migrants. They should return to their homes and
confidence-building problems must be settled politically. As for the
possibility of the resumption of military actions, the ex-minister of
defense of NKR said: "If the parties fail to resolve the conflict
peacefully then a war between them will take place sooner or later."
He said the steps taken by the Azerbaijan army show that it is
preparing for war," Samvel Babayan said.

I 100% agree. Ceding some parts of the buffer zone back to the Azerbaijanis, which would allow their refugees to return, would be not only the right thing to do but the smart thing to do. We should retain Karvachar and Lachin, as those are vital to Armenian national and water security along with retaining NK itself. Aghdam, Fuzili, Zangilan, etc should be given back to Azerbaijan. These regions are nothing but desolate ruins and would become and economic burden to develop again. No one lives there as well. I know in the past 120 years, we have lost a lot - too much. Sometimes you have to compromise and Samvel is right here. Solving our problems with Azerbaijan peacefully would also allow us on focusing more of our effort on regaining regions like Kars, Ardahan and Mt. Ararat. We should have made claims to those lands yesterday....Things like the BTC pipeline would become a non-issue.

How I see things