Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

[Suedia]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Another thing to remember is that we Armenians are no longer defenseless likle we were back then, sure we can never match the #2 NATO military force but God forbid we find ourselves under a devastating Turkish invasion………I know Armenians will not surrender.
Turkey will loose and loose badly in a guerrilla/insurgency warfare inside the Armenian soil which can take many years, and they know it and there is no benefit in it for them other than their Pan Turkic wet dream.

Question: Are the Armenians in Armenia today ready to fight such a guerilla war against Turkey? Seeing that every Armenian family in Armenia tries to do everything so that their son won't go to conscription, and also the Diasporans' refuse to take citizenship because of the conscription law, show that lately most of the Armenian people ( exclusing the Karabakh Armenians and some other Armenians) has lost its combativeness, or "martunakutyun" as they say. This is a big sign of worry. Armenia, surrounded by Tatars, Mongols and Kurds, should have the most powerful and sophisticated weapons in the Caucasus, and should have a combative PEOPLE, not just an Army, with a high moral, and fearlessness. Instead of wasting that energy on each other, let's save that energy against the enemy. Armenia had always been surrounded by enemies throughout history ( Romans, Parthians, Byzantium, Sasanid, Ottomans, Turkey, Azerbaijan). But, thanks to the 600 year of occupation by Ottomans, Seljuks and Russians, most of the Armenians lost their "martunakutyun". So hoe can you expect that Armenians fight a guerilla war against Turkey?

I am trying to be realist, not pessimistic or anti-Armenian don't get me wrong.

[Hye]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

hi Gegev,

In order to chose an ally or to make a decision we must look at our choices options senarions put them on balance and see what is the best. What are we gaining from out alliance with russia and what are we losing. You mesioned in your post what are we losing let us see one by one.

1) you mentioned the protocol. I will not get into the long argument wether it was good for Armenia or bad I have my opinon you want to discuss we do it in another tread but as you mentioned yourself and i quote "Russia joined USA, EU and enforced Armenia to sign the Armenian-Turkish Protocol..." well if you talk of reorientation of out polacy by your judgement you eliminated USA and EU as a potential allys. Moroever how did you conclude Russia sold Armenia to build the pipeline when in fact Turkey needs Russian Gas for itself and to be a major transite root in the region why would Russia sell Armenia for that pipeline? Moreover one can analyse this by saying Turkey having Russian Gas important is less dependant on Azeri Gas and Azerbaijan lost little leverage on Turkey not to say Russia being a Gas exportter to Turkey gained leverage on Turkey.


2) Erdogan's visit to Turkey will include the discussion on the Karabakh issue. Well Turkey is playing it's game trying to save face before Azeris what makes you think Russia will let Turkey to have a say in Karabakh issue? I believe it is Russias stratigic intrest not to allow Turkey to ahve a say in Karabakh. We just have to wait and see.


3) Russia is the bigest investor in Armenian economy although any investment in Armenia is welcomed we need some diversification but in some cases there are old buildings like Garen Demirdjian Hamalir if it wasn't for the Russians it would not have been used till this day this is just an example. not to say our rail road system etc.
4) Russia reduced the size of Iran-Armenia pipeline. I consider this huge negative and should be put on the balance.

5)Russian investment in Turkish economy this may have negative affects on Armenians and should be considered but so do many many other countries in the world we should isolet ourselves from all those who do business with Turkey?

these are the negative effects of the Russians on Armenia as you mention. Let's see what good we are getting from Russia

1) Weaponary: Armenia being part of CSTO get's it's weapons much less than the market price actually pays as much as the Russian governemnt pays for the same weapon. Not to mention all the material that were transfered for free to the Armenian Army. On the other hand Russia doesn't sell strategic weapons that would change balance of power in the region to Azerbaijan making Azeris to buy russian made weapons from a third country. Not to mention all the Armenian oficials that get trained in Russian academies. It's worth mentoning that Armenian Army is supposrted by Russian equpment and to change them need huge funds and time that we don't have.

2) Russia is the leading investor in Armenian economy bringing russian capital that strengthens the econmy

3) Russia is the leading importer of Armenian goods.
4) Russia is the nearest power geographically.
5) Russia sells gas to Armenia in very low prices

These points are based on facts and they exist and it's not based on analysis let me continue. But what binds Russia and Armenia together is their common intrests. Armenia being a small country can't atchieve her intrests alone must find a partner find common grounds and persue so it isn't true what you said we will follow like a "Dog" to Russians. We have common intrests with Russians more than any other popwer in the region and on earth. But not all intrests can coinside Russia has it's own agenda that might contradict our agenda by aplifying these differences and saying we should change our orientation is a major missjudgment (no offense). Moreover Russia needing Armenia in by itself won't push Armenia to corner to make it reorient itself.

Lets see what common intrests do we have

1) The caucasus region is indispensible part of the security of the Russian homland. Caucasus mountain range stands as natural fortress that protects the souther west flank of the Russian federation it is considered as the "back yard" of the Russian Federation and Russia in no way would let lose of the rope. The fall of Caucasus by any other force treathens the soul existance of the russian Federation as power in the region. Russia in my opinon would do anything not to lose this region. Historically Russia even treatened Turkey with a nuclear strike in 1990s because of Turkish treat to invade Armenia. Turkey is the main competitor of Russia in the caucasus having good realtions with Azerbaijan. As long as Russia is powerful enoug we will see no approachment that would indager Armenian security.

2) Armenians imediate treat, more than Turkey, is Azerbaijan and since Azeris are close to Turks and Turkey posing long term treat to Russian power Russia wil always protect Armenian security and will help Armenia to keep the balance of power in the region. In my opinon Russia doesn't even want to solve the Karabakh conflict in order to have control on Azerbaijan. And I predict Karabakh issue keeping this status quo for many years. The only time when would have less common intrest with Russian is when Russia becomes weak and to maintain some of it's status can offer consesions to Turkey or even can coleborate with Turkey just like it happened after 1917 revolution. So as long as Russia is strong we have security and as long as Russia has a foot in Armenia Russia is somehow strong it's a marrage made in heaven.

moreover Things that sound illpgical today maybe very probalbe in the future based on this it is important to add in case of a Turkish or Azeri invasion of Armenia the power that is most probable to help Armenia militarily is Russia because it's closest to Armenia which makes it easier to react and as I said it's a region that Russia doesn't afford to lose whereas other poweres who are geographically much further than Russia won't be so willing to do so.

Moreover just imagine what would happen to Armenia if for a second decided to reorient it's polacy pf course Im saying in this current situation. I gave the example of Ukarian that is a country 20 times bigger than us and 14 times more populated. If a country a vig like Ukraine that is on the outskirts of EU far better located than us far advanced than us can't reorient it's polacy what do you expact Armenians to do?

to finish my post PLEASE tell us what is our ulternative by logical backing to your choice

[gegev]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

tell us what is our ulternative by logical backing to your choice

Hello Hye,
I agree with most of your analysis/explanations, you put it down with sound argumentation.

All I’m saying is that:
The protocol/agreement was signed under auspices of the Russia, USA and EU. It means that Russia was familiar with the text and agrees with everything, it says. This is what I call unfriendly action against Armenia, on behalf of Russia. We are not the USA and EU ally, therefore we can’t blame them in it, but Russia.

At this point we should ask ourselves, if we have chosen the right ally. And make it clear for Russians that we are able to leave unreliable ally, regardless how powerful she is, and our weakness. And it is not threatening: just explaining that though small/weak/vulnerable, we have honor/interests/desires, too.

It’s true that our economic interests can differ, but the decisions should be made on consensus bases, and letting us to diversify our economy, as you agreed, too. But Russia tries to set its “absolute” dictatorship not only in politics, but in economy as well, insuring eternal poverty: because the businesses they manage are inefficient and the resulting poverty and population dissatisfaction is partially attributed to Russia, too. They still have to learn the management know-how themselves.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Question: Are the Armenians in Armenia today ready to fight such a guerilla war against Turkey? Seeing that every Armenian family in Armenia tries to do everything so that their son won't go to conscription, and also the Diasporans' refuse to take citizenship because of the conscription law, show that lately most of the Armenian people ( exclusing the Karabakh Armenians and some other Armenians) has lost its combativeness, or "martunakutyun" as they say. This is a big sign of worry. Armenia, surrounded by Tatars, Mongols and Kurds, should have the most powerful and sophisticated weapons in the Caucasus, and should have a combative PEOPLE, not just an Army, with a high moral, and fearlessness. Instead of wasting that energy on each other, let's save that energy against the enemy. Armenia had always been surrounded by enemies throughout history ( Romans, Parthians, Byzantium, Sasanid, Ottomans, Turkey, Azerbaijan). But, thanks to the 600 year of occupation by Ottomans, Seljuks and Russians, most of the Armenians lost their "martunakutyun". So hoe can you expect that Armenians fight a guerilla war against Turkey?

I am trying to be realist, not pessimistic or anti-Armenian don't get me wrong.

Good post.
You are right about our warrior blood running thin after loosing most of the talents in ancient wars and their sons to be, and the 600 years of brutal occupation that eventually will psychologically change how a man thinks and reacts, which that has been carried over to today. We witness this now on how we fear (paranoid) for our safety and how we feel the need for the protection of others who don’t really care about us. It blinds us from our own self reality and state of being.

In regards to your question I did consider that before my last post but I get the feeling that in such situation most men like it or not, will have no alternative but to fight. There will be no place to hide. (I could be wrong, we may just hand everything over, I like to think not though for Gods sake)

Nothing more dangerous than a free thinking man...............if we ever needed powerful patriotic leaders in our history then it is right now to pull us up from our bootstraps, to shake off this dependence we have come to rely on, to restore our ancient honor and gain respect from our friends but more importantly from our enemies. As long as we have a state and hang on to it by all means (as dysfunctional as it may be), we have a chance.

In regards to Russia
There should be no reason why we cannot move away to true independence without loosing them as an important friend and ally, in fact there is no getting away and in all practical purposes Armenia must stay proactive and involved in Russian politics (much like J.ews in USA) and increase her influence to work in mutual interests as equal partners.

This cannot go on for ever. Russians think we belong to them, Turks still consider us as slave people now hiding under Russian skirt, and the West can’t do anything with us because of Russia.

[Hye]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Hi Gegev

It has been a while now I have come to the conclusion that we Armenians overestimate the potential Armenia has. First of all I would like to tell you that I'm not against the signing of the protocol not because I agree for all what it says and stands for but for the reason that we have no other choice. In the end Armenia was the one who signed the protocol not Russia. Armenia must be accounted for the signing nor Russia. On the other hand let me tell you Armenia in 1918 when declared its independance by signing the outragouse treaty of Batum that makes Armenia abour 9000 square Km not more than a pupet state of Turkey were Armenian leaders then happy with the deal they made with Turkey hell no but they had no other choice it was the best deal we could get or we would have lost Eastern Armenia as well. The situation how I see is very similar. Although this protocol isn't what we want it to be but this is it we have a leadership government who's job is 24/7 think about Armenia and it's choice I think they know better than we do. I believe wether it was Seje or hovsep or Sarkis or Garen or Levon or Vahan wether we would have sign this protocol and try to move forward or stay as we are and look at Armenia having double digit NEGATIVE economic growth.

Ask yourself have we chosen the right ally if you think "no" the next question will be who should we pick as an ally and till now you haven't answered to this question. moreover as I believe with all that you said Russia still doesn't qualify as unreliable ally. In fact and we must face it from now own to do something about it we are weak small you can't ask a pegion to carry a building.

It is very easy to say something but the hard part is how to atchieve. Indeed we must diversify our economy, strengthen out Army, grow our population but the question is how? the fact of the matter is we have a blockade from east and west we have no sea we have Georgia who is not reliable enough as a transite root and we have IRAN (the name speaks for itself) and above all we don't want to open the border before Turkey recognizes the Genocide we want Turkey to give third of its teretory to Armenia we want Azerbaijan to shut up and say Karabakh is Armenian Georgia to give us Javakhk maybe later Iran to give us nothern Iran.

As for Russia managing our economic assets well there is no one else intrested in a sense just tell me who would buy a railway system in a country 70% of its borders are closed? But Russia because she can't afford to lose Armenia is actually investing in Armenia sometimes to keep Armenia on it's knees sometimes (like they did when they bought Iran-Armenia pipes) to persue its intrests.

[Hye]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Hi Eddo 211

your quote: "if we ever needed powerful patriotic leaders in our history then it is right now to pull us up from our bootstraps, to shake off this dependence we have come to rely on, to restore our ancient honor and gain respect from our friends but more importantly from our enemies. As long as we have a state and hang on to it by all means (as dysfunctional as it may be), we have a chance."

All what you say is very beutiful and Im with it to the end but I wanna ask what should we do or this leader do in order to atchieve all what you say tell me concrete steps I donno maybe attack on Iran or.... just give me steps what do you think will make us stronger?

[Haykakan]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Attack on Iran? What on earth are you guys talking about lol. Eddo, patriotism doesnt change anything at all on the ground. I dont care how patriotic you are, Armenia is still surrounded by powerfull enemies who want it dead and Russia is still the only thing preventing that. The last thing Armenia needs is a dumb patriot leader who will put a wedge between us and russia (ie shakasville). A smart patriotic leader wouldn't do much different then whats being done today.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Attack Iran? Lol
If anything we can justify a preemptive defensive strike on Azerbaijan to secure more zones (for preperation on later capture of Baku) due to their president’s big mouth and constant war rhetoric. You ask what should this theoretical leader due to make us stronger? I wished I knew. One thing this exceptional leader could do though is to unit all Armenians around the world under a single cause and give them a set of clear objectives. This leader could also recognize Artsakh as Armenia and start an unconventional political jargon like criticizing Gul on Turkey’s human rights violations and the Armenian churches in Turkey. Demand an apology from Alivev for shooting off his mouth, I mean things that are totally useless but makes an impact on political fronts. Declare that Armenia has no desire at this time to liberate the West so Turkey has nothing to worry about for now. Say Armenian Genocide committed by Turks was a very bad thing but we don’t care anymore what Turkey recognizes because the world knows what had happened so stop your lobby, do everything you can to join the EU before Turkey……

Haykakan you might be right but there has to be more we can do. This is a good thread guys, we should talk about it even though it may sound silly.

[Haykakan]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

RUSSIA INTERESTED IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH SETTLEMENT, ARMENIAN-TURKISH NORMALIZATION

Panorama.am
17:31 14/01/2010

President Serzh Sargsyan today received the Foreign Minister of
Russia, Sergey Lavrov. Greeting the guest, President Sargsyan noted:
"I should note with appreciation that our strategic partnership
was supplemented with qualitatively new elements in 2009, the high
level of intensive political dialogue was maintained, the economic,
cultural and humanitarian ties reinforced."

President Sargsyan noted that Armenia will continue making efforts
towards deepening of the bilateral cooperation.

"We are grateful to Russia for the great efforts towards
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and the Armenian-Turkish normalization,"
President highlighted.

Sergey Lavrov conveyed the warmest greetings of the Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev to Serzh Sargsyan and said: "He hopes that the
intensive, allied and trustful relations between our countries
will be maintained this year. We also appreciate the level of
strategic partnership between our countries in all spheres of allied
cooperation," Sergey Lavrov said.

The Armenian President and the Russian Foreign Minister discussed the
dynamically developing Armenian-Russian relations, the deepening of
collaboration in the trade-economic and humanitarian spheres.

Serzh Sargsyan and Sergey Lavrov exchanged views on issues of the
wider Caucasus region, particularly the process of settlement of the
Karabakh issue and the normalization of relations between Armenia and
Turkey. The Russian Foreign Minister noted that during yesterday's
joint press conference with the Turkish Prime Minister, the Head of
Russian Government Vladimir Putin once again presented the position
of official Moscow, emphasizing that the two processes are in no
way linked.

Sergey Lavrov underlined that Russia is interested in both the
normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations and the settlement
of the Karabakh issue.

[Hye]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Hi Haykakan and Eddo 211

from all i wrote in my posts you got this two words out of it? indeed lol what I'm trying to do is encourage people Armenians to think of plans and express them no matter how outrageous may be just think of a plan of course back it with some kind of logic and good argument and present. I don't ever think we should attack Iran but if there is anyone who thinks such and you have logical argument to back please come forward and let us discuss my aim is to discuss to think about the situation it will benifit us in two ways first when you think in this direction you will really know what are we in how dificult jobs people in the Armenian government have and at least learn to appritiate what they are doing because believe me it is not easy to be in their position. Don't dismiss people esily as traitors or corrupt or mafias lets look at the good and bad of things. Second and more importantly although very difficult maybe something comes out of us an idea or a way that could be implemented at least let's try.


Eddp 211 you have suggested some steps and I thank you for them and i encourage you to do more I will not give an opinon about them but to make it more tangeble try to be more orgenised first of all if you can list the chalenges that Armenia is facing, list the priorties of Armenians in their goals, list the enemies and allies that Armenia has and could have in the future and based on all these try to find something. Don't forget we are talking about Armenia but we have the Armenian diaspora as well. if we think like this we can come to a good result I wonder if our current organisations work in such a way do they have concrete answeres to the questions I listed (I doupt they do).


As for the news posted by Haykakan
Although I don't believe a lot in these press confrences I think this was what i was expecting and all the analyses by Azeri and Turkish and some Armenian sources that Russia was striking a deal in Krabakh against Armenia in Armenians back somehow failed but we must wait and see the actions. Again in my modest opinon Russia wants status quo in Karabakh i donno if you agree with me.