Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

[gegev]

Russia joined USA, EU and enforced Armenia to sign the Armenian-Turkish Protocol, to validate the invalid Kars treaty and make AG questionable historical event. It was the price Russia “paid” to get Turkey’s agreement on building the gas pipeline, at the Armenia’s expense. Is it a friendly behavior?.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially opened the Blue Stream Natural Gas Pipeline alongside Russian President ... Friday, 1 January 2010 . http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/21...-pipeline.html

Now on January 12-13 Erdogan is going to visit Russia. The Artsakh issue will be discussed, too.

What else Russia is going to promise Turks at Armenia’s expense?

Russians are owners of all our major businesses, Turks – lands.

Russia didn’t allow us to make Iran-Armenia gas pipeline diameter bigger (at Iran’s expense), to prevent Armenia to enjoy gas transit profits, but pays astronomical amounts for the construction of the gas pipeline through Turkey and promises 15% of the proceeds to Turks.

The huge investments in Turkish economy will prevent Russia’s quarrel with Turkey on such a ‘minor’ (for Russia) issues, like the AG, invalid Kars treaty validation or Arthsakh lands fate.

Do we have something left to give Turks?

Isn’t it the right time to think about reassessing Armenia’s political orientation?

[ashot24]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

And who do you believe Armenia's political orientation should be reassessed to? The USA?

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

And who do you believe Armenia's political orientation should be reassessed to? The USA?

No, to Armenia.

[gegev]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

And who do you believe Armenia's political orientation should be reassessed to? The USA?

We still have choices. Armenia can offer building its nuclear power plant, processing the Uranium mining and oil refinery to other power/superpower/s, who are not in good relations with Turkey, as Russia is.

Remember how France was fighting for the Armenian cause when in past was offered the building of the nuclear power plant: they introduced the bill on the AG denial. At that point they have done much more than our government does till now.

Having big economic stakes in Armenia’s economy is the major and long lasting factor in international relations. But alas our government deals only with corrupt ones, as Russian government is, because they are looking personal interest in that. This is why they didn’t approve the France-Armenian power plant deal and gave it to Russia.

But our political opposition can still revert things on the right direction and strengthen our position in the world.

Taking back Armenian “CAKES” from Russia and offering it to China/EU/France (you choose)…, perhaps is the only effective thing to change the disastrous situation Armenia is in.

Russia got all the cakes from Armenia and now isn't concerned about its interests. Now they are looking for other tasty things outside.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

And who do you believe Armenia's political orientation should be reassessed to? The USA?

Play both sides to her advantage.

Maybe it is a good time for Armenia to recognize Artsakh and then declare that the ratification of the protocols will be difficult when it applies to legalizing the current borders with Turkey.

Russia also works in Azeri's interests to some degree.

[ashot24]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

We still have choices. Armenia can offer building its nuclear power plant, processing the Uranium mining and oil refinery to other power/superpower/s, who are not in good relations with Turkey, as Russia is.

Remember how France was fighting for the Armenian cause when in past was offered the building of the nuclear power plant: they introduced the bill on the AG denial. At that point they have done much more than our government does till now.

Having big economic stakes in Armenia’s economy is the major and long lasting factor in international relations. But alas our government deals only with corrupt ones, as Russian government is, because they are looking personal interest in that. This is why they didn’t approve the France-Armenian power plant deal and gave it to Russia.

But our political opposition can still revert things on the right direction and strengthen our position in the world.

Taking back Armenian “CAKES” from Russia and offering it to China/EU/France (you choose)…, perhaps is the only effective thing to change the disastrous situation Armenia is in.

Russia got all the cakes from Armenia and now isn't concerned about its interests. Now they are looking for other tasty things outside.

The main problem is nobody really cares about the future or the well-being of little countries, big countries (so to say France, the USA, Russia) couldn't care less about little countries with poor economies...they will only if, and only IF, those little countries can offer them something. It is not what we can offer you, it's what you can offer US.

Do you think the USA would ever in their history backed Georgia if it wasn't they could obtain something from them? In this case, turn the West against Russia on the 2008 war and gain more allies against "the commies"?. I can bet you Mr. McCain (now "Hero of Georgia") would have ever, ever, ever in his life heard about the country if it wasn't because the US could have gained more allies to turn against Russia and sell themselves to the West, just as Turkey did with Ataturk (selling to the West).

The only reason why Russia 'is an ally' is because for long time Armenia and Armenians were the only friends the Russians had in all its forms (Empire, SSR, Federation). And after every former USSR state spit on Russia after the Soviet Union fell, Armenians were always 'loyal'...and they are decent enough to recognize that and at least understand that they owe us that 'friendly position', because we are "their only ally in the South". But of course, every country looks what's good for them, Russia can't stay just with Armenia, they must look for other supporters, because they've already lost Georgia...they will not allow any other country to run out of their influence, that's why they play nice with Azerbaijan for their oil, and because they don't want them to be sell-out entirely to the West.

In any case, they will not allow Armenia to 'betray' them at this point of the game. I don't like to see Armenia entirely depending on Russia, such dependency is bad, but it is stupid and far from reality for anyone to believe Armenian would be successful at breaking from Russia's control and not suffering any harsh consequences, in order to do that, Armenia must first become a country that can stand for herself, economically, socially, and politically, otherwise that change would only led to her destruction. And besides all of that, it's preferable to have Russia as 'friend', even as a 'bad friend', than as an enemy...we don't need more enemies that the ones we already have.

No, to Armenia.

The thing here is, nobody cares about Armenia, not even Armenians. I am sure that if anyone comes after Sargsyan of any of the opposition parties, there will be no change, because every politician looks for his own interests, and if they are generous, for their party's interests.....they couldn't care less about their people. But I hope I am wrong...and some day there will be a president that at least will give some good things to Armenia, but as for the near future, I don't think that happening.

Play both sides to her advantage.

Maybe it is a good time for Armenia to recognize Artsakh and then declare that the ratification of the protocols will be difficult when it applies to legalizing the current borders with Turkey.

Russia also works in Azeri's interests to some degree.

I reiterate what I said earlier relating to countries caring about Armenia.

I myself believe that Armenia will never agree to cede Artsakh, at least not all of her, if any territorial changes are to be made in the future (and by future I mean many, not to say several, years) are going to be related to the regions surrounding the former NKAO. Although Sargsyan is an idiot, he is a NK national and at some degree he also fought for Karabakh's independence...and I believe no Karabakhi will sell his own land, this goes far beyond any economical interest...this is something personal.

As for the protocols, I believe that even if Armenia ratifies them between the next few months, it will not make any change...if Armenia is such 'in a rush' to ratify them is because they know very well Turkey "cannot be pressured by anyone and will take their time" because "no one can pressure big, bad guy Turkey" [only small, bad-guy wannabe Azerbaijan]. Turkey won't ratify the protocols anytime soon, and if they will, it will be under their own time. When they say "we want to see some progress in the Karabakh issue" they mean "we want you to 'leave it, get off, withdraw'" as Erdogan said, and that won't happen, and if Erdogan's words are going to be taken seriously...then expect Turkey to don't do anything.

And I believe as well, what image can Turkey give to the world if Armenia has ratified the protocols without preconditions and they now add some preconditions and don't want to ratify them themselves? Turkey is the land of contradictions, they claim they are the leaders searching "for peace and stability in the region" and that "Turkey is a country where peace reigns" and they are the country that has the highest number of unsolved problems with other nations, they are cynical enough to criticize Armenia for ""invading"" Azerbaijan's territory and ask to withdraw, but it's the other way around when talking about when they invaded Cyprus territory, isn't it?. Bunch of hypocrites.

If Armenia is such a rush is because they want this to happen, and Turkey can ratify them or simply don't, in which case Turkey's image to the world as a serious country will be damaged, and more rocks are going to be put in the way of Armenia and Turkey ever restoring relations.
But in the end, it won't make any difference because what separates Turkish and Armenian people is not a stupid political border, but a mental border, mixed feelings towards each other, and for that to change many many years will have to come, even if we find ourselves with an open border within some years.

Sorry if this is very large to read, but I had much to say.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Pretty good rant ashot24, I agree. I cannot see Turkey ratifying these protocols either without getting something for their Azerbaijani brothers. This is why I say stick it to them by making such a statement...........so what Armenia may look aggressive in this process, look what the Turkish generals are all saying about these protocols. This is a language they understand.

I have also come to the conclusion that these protocols have nothing to do with normalizing relations between Turks and Armenian people and that both borders must be opened to have the full benefits for the investors.

Also it is understandable that Russia will do all it can for her own interests in the region which she considers the "sphere of influence" including intimidating (even punishing) Armenia for making moves that she may not see it be in her long term interest. Regardless, there is no reason why Armenia cannot still politically grow a louder bark without loosing friendly relations with Russia. Armenia is not Georgia, there is no betray.

[hipeter924]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

As for Turkey itself, coming from a country that has trade and economic relations with it. It tries to push its own agenda and tell its 'truth' but in the end people only agree to their genocide denial for economic or political interest.

Armenia will only truly get recognition if develops its economy to the point it can support itself and its opinions, this is a world of money and Turkey only manages to get its way because it pays for it. If Armenia could improve its economy it could turn the tables since Turkey is a bigger mess than Armenia and has far worse problems such as Islamic fundamentalists, Fascists and Stalinists as well as more poverty and crime.

Armenia has to enter one of the important industries today and get itself established, whether that's in agriculture, banking and finance, or information technology. Till then Armenia is basically wobbling in the dark, corporations and money is what matters now.

[gegev]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

But of course, every country looks what's good for them, Russia can't stay just with Armenia, they must look for other supporters, because they've already lost Georgia...they will not allow any other country to run out of their influence, that's why they play nice with Azerbaijan for their oil, and because they don't want them to be sell-out entirely to the West.

The world is big and Russia is not that mighty for not allowing (Georgia is a good example of it).
Azerbaijan is Turkey’s friend/relative and the Turkey is a US puppet, but only in terms of global politics: in economic issues they are more than independent.Therefore being that kind of puppet is profitable for Turkey’s economy. Many poor countries in the world would like to become that kind of puppet. If someone wants to keep its friend shouldn’t treat its ally’s enemy friendly. An ally (friend) means: “A friend in need is a friend indeed.” One can’t be a friend of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the same time. Do you know any other definition of it?

In any case, they will not allow Armenia to 'betray' them at this point of the game. I don't like to see Armenia entirely depending on Russia, such dependency is bad, but it is stupid and far from reality for anyone to believe Armenian would be successful at breaking from Russia's control and not suffering any harsh consequences, in order to do that, Armenia must first become a country that can stand for herself, economically, socially, and politically, otherwise that change would only led to her destruction. And besides all of that, it's preferable to have Russia as 'friend', even as a 'bad friend', than as an enemy...we don't need more enemies that the ones we already have.

At Armenian-Russian friendship Armenia couldn’t say no when Russia didn’t allow us to make Iran-Armenia gas pipeline diameter bigger (at Iran’s expense), letting Armenia enjoy gas transit profits. The kind of friendship reminds me Dog-Man one. A friendly country should allow/assist its ally to establish profitable economic relations with other NON ENEMY countries for example as Iran is, to let/help the ally diversifying its economy to confront economic recessions/disasters. This is why Georgia now is the USA ally and has big economic projects with other countries, too. Being friendly means sometimes doing good for its friend even at its own expense as Armenia does with Russians throughout the course of history.

This is why Russia antagonizes with Georgia, but now she behaves the same way towards Armenia: Russia didn’t allow Georgia to have big economic projects with other countries. And the same thing is the primary cause of poverty in Armenia, too. Russia owns all our major businesses!

[Hye]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

hi to all,
In my opinon Armenia has no choice to stick to Russia today and the years to come we have no other choice UNLESS we do something extraordinary that will make another power to replace Russia which Im not seeing we are doing. Russia is a regional power has it's own intrersts and will persue them Russia will no way act againsts its intrests for the sake of Armenians or any other nation.


Russia reduced the diameter of Iran-Armenia pipeline not to make Armenia profite less but to make Iran not to emerge as a competing Gas exporter in the future.
Russia or ANY other country in the world will always regard recognition of Armenian Genocide or ratification of the invalid Kars Treaty a minor issue for them. They will inflate it when they need and deflate it and even forget about it in need.

There is no allies as friends people liking or loving each other there are intrests and leverage. Did Germans love the Ottomans so much to get into an alience in WW1? or maybe the britains and the Americans were great supporters of comunism when they got into alience with USSR to invade Germany? Maybe Britains and French suddenly fell in Love with Russians in 1914 after cetruries of war together.


Lets not get carried away with what we've got we have little or no leverage against the Russians or any other power in the world we are indeed a small nation with landlock country and limited resources instead of blaming others lets find something to make us better.
there was very good questions in one of the posts towards who should we reassess our political orientation?


EU? we'll the Euopeans were the first people who stebed us in the back at at the beginning of the last century I can give you many examples.
USA? What will USA gain from us? who is more valuble to US Turkey? or Armenia or Armenians all over the world?
China? again even if we assume china were a major political player in the world (which till now it is not) who should they chose? Armenia?
the only leverage we have against Russia besides our Armenian Diaspora in Russia that may play key role is our location in the caucasus where Russia doesn't afford to lose and will always (IF has the power) keep these lands under its military and political influence Russia isn't even intrersted in Armenian economy because its just too damn small.


Quote: "Armenia can offer building its nuclear power plant, processing the Uranium mining and oil refinery to other power/superpower/s, who are not in good relations with Turkey, as Russia is. "
can you tell me who is this superpower or power? And if magically we were able to do such Russia would aplode us and do nothing.


Quote: "Remember how France was fighting for the Armenian cause when in past was offered the building of the nuclear power plant: they introduced the bill on the AG denial. At that point they have done much more than our government does till now. "
Well the good old French yeah? Wasn't Armenian loving French who abandoned Cilicia in 1920s to the Kemalist Turks which lead to further massacures of inocent Armenians who had returned back after being deported to start a new life? They Got Syria and Lebanon that was enoug for them to colonise damn the Armenians at least this will shut the Turks up and they left not to mention how they left in the middle of a winning battle where Armenians were fighting shoulder to shoulder to the French in the morning Armenias saw they were retreating and went.


As I said Russia has a huge leverage on Armenia which is Armenias security and sadly there is no other country BUT Russia that can assure Armenias PHYSICAL existance and based on this Russia plays with us and we cant say NO because simply WE HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE. Whoever comes to power this will be the case and this will remain even the oposition. By the way don't let me started on the opposition now Levonig suddenly became the savior of Armenians. Anyway Besides just imagine how Russia would react if by any chance someone came to power pro USA can we forget the good old Georgians and Sahakashvili? Or Maybe we are better than Ukrainians who after 2004 orange revolution started to reorient themselves prorussian Yushchenko doesn't stand a chance in January 19 elections the leader are Timusheno and Yanukovich. Yanukovich is hardcore pro Russia Timushenko although was part of the Orange revolution now is much further than Yusjchenko more in the middle more moderate character. And poor Armenia is better than ukraine which has 600000 square Km area bordering with 7 countries and Black sea which has a population of 46 million.


We must learn and realize this is what we've got and we have no other choice no party or figure even the most inteligent person in the world can't do better than this if you were a fire you would burn yourself. I have said and will say again and again the answer isn't in Armenia and ruling elite or oposition or corruption whatever we do even if we have the best democracy trancparency in the worl we would be in the same situation. We must find answeres from outside Armenia meaning the Armenian Diaspora. It isn't time for adventurists.