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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Saturday, April 02, 2016
    Armenia

    Heavy Fighting Reported In Nagorno-Karabakh


    Kerry Calls For Karabakh 'Resolution'
    U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has called for "an ultimate resolution" of the decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
    White House Calls For Talks To Settle Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
    By RFE/RL
    April 02, 2016

    Heavy fighting has been reported in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh inside Azerbaijan.

    The Armenian military has accused Azerbaijani forces of launching a major offensive, involving tanks, heavy artillery, and helicopter gunships.

    The Azerbaijani military said its frontline forces had first come under "intensive fire" overnight and that the Azerbaijani Army had to take "urgent measures" to respond.

    Nagorno-Karabakh lies inside Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenians.

    The Armenian Defense Ministry said there were "casualties on both sides" as fighting appeared to be continuing.

    The ministry called it the most serious escalation of fighting in the conflict since a 1994 truce and called on the United States, Russia, and France -- all involved in international efforts to mediate the conflict -- to urgently intervene.

    Nagorno-Karabakh's Defense Ministry said "fierce clashes are taking place along the entire line of contact."

    Karabakh forces also claim to have shot down an Azerbaijani military helicopter. That report has not been independently confirmed.

    The conflict broke out in the dying years of the Soviet Union but efforts to reach a permanent settlement have failed.

    The fighting comes amid fresh appeals from Washington to resolve the conflict.

    U.S. Vice President Joe Biden met with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan separately on April 1 and called on them to peacefully settle the conflict.

    Biden "expressed concern about continued violence, called for dialogue, and emphasized the importance of a comprehensive settlement for the long-term stability, security, and prosperity of the region," the White House said.

    Both of the Caucasus leaders, in turn, said they encouraged the United States to take an active role in reaching a settlement.

    Biden echoed an earlier appeal by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who called for "an ultimate resolution" of the conflict during talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on March 31 in Washington.

    At his meeting with Kerry, Aliyev thanked the United States for trying to end the conflict but said it could only be resolved through a UN Security Council resolution calling for the "immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops" from Azerbaijan.

    Nagorno-Karabakh, populated mainly by ethnic Armenians, declared independence from Azerbaijan after a 1988-94 war that claimed an estimated 30,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.

    Internationally mediated negotiations with the involvement of the OSCE's so-called Minsk Group have failed to result in a resolution. The Minsk Group is co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Այսօր սահմանին վճռվում է ամենակարեւորը

      ՀԱՅԿԱԶՆ ՂԱՀՐԻՅԱՆ, Գլխավոր խմբագիր
      Մեկնաբանություն - 02 Ապրիլի 2016,

      Ադրբեջանը ապրիլի լույս 2-ի գիշերը հարձակում է ձեռնարկել ԼՂՀ-Ադրբեջան շփման գծի ողջ երկայնքով, կիրառելով ծանր տեխնիկա եւ մարտական ավիացիա:

      Հարձակումը տեղի է ունեցել մի շարք իրադարձությունների ֆոնին: Վաշինգտոնում Ալիեւը եւ Սարգսյանը մասնակցել են միջուկային անվտանգության վեհաժողովին: Մինչ այդ, կային խոսակցություններ, որ Վաշինգտոնում կայանալու է նրանց հանդիպումը, սակայն դա տեղի չունեցավ, կան տեղեկություններ, որ Բաքուն չի համաձայնվել:

      Ենթադրվում էր, որ հանդիպմանը քննարկվելու էր հակամարտության գոտում հրադադարի խախտումների հետաքննության մեխանիզմի ներդրման հարցը, որն առաջարկել է ԱՄՆ-ն: Հայաստանը կողմ է այդ մեխանիզմին, Ադրբեջանը՝ դեմ, քանի որ այդ դեպքում Բաքուն կկորցնի իր միակ փաստարկը՝ շփման գծում լարվածությունն ու շանտաժը: Բացի այդ, նման մեխանիզմի ներդրումը նշանակում է ներկայիս ստատուս-քվոյի որոշակի միջազգային «ճանաչում»:

      Ռուսաստանը լուռ է այս հարցում, սակայն նախօրեին ՌԴ ԱԳՆ խոսնակը հայտարարել էր, թե ղարաբաղյան հարցում Ռուսաստանի ու ԱՄՆ-ի միջեւ կան հակասություններ: Թե ինչ հակասություններ են՝ նա չէր մանրամասնել, ենթադրելի է, որ դա կարող է կապված լինել հենց հետաքննության մեխանիզմի հետ: Բանն այն է, որ այդ պարագայում Ղարաբաղ խաղաղապահներ մտցնելու Ռուսաստանի ծրագիրը կարող է տապալվել:

      Ահա այս ֆոնին, Ադրբեջանը ապրիլի լույս 2-ի գիշերն անցել է հարձակման: Հնարավոր է, այս փակուղային իրավիճակը պետք է ինչ որ կերպ հանգուցալուծվի, եւ Ադրբեջանը հույս ունի ռազմական գործողությունների միջոցով հասնել իր նպատակին՝ տապալել հետաքննության մեխանիզմի ներդրումը եւ փոխել Մինսկի խմբի ձեւաչափը:

      Հայկական կողմի համար սա վճռորոշ պահ է: Իրավիճակը հիշեցնում է զինադադարի հաստատման պահը, երբ հայկական բանակը ստիպված էր կիսատ թողնել գործը: Հիշեցնում է նաեւ 2014-ի օգոստոսը, երբ հայկական զինուժը հստակ գործողությունների շնորհիվ ձախողեց հակահայկական ծրագիրը:

      Հիմա բոլորի ուշադրությունը բեւեռված է ռազմական գործողություններին եւ զինված ուժերի մարտունակությանը, իրավիճակից ելքին, որից հետո արվելու են եզրակացությունները:
      Հայկական զինուժն այսօր վճռում է հայկական երկու պետությունների ապագան: Այս անգամ գործը չպետք է կիսատ թողնել: Հայ զինվորին առաջ շարժվելու հրաման պետք է տրվի, որպեսզի Ադրբեջանի հետ նոր, հնարավոր է Մինգեչաուր-Քուր սահմանագիծը հաստատվի առանց ցավալիորեն մեծ կորուստների:


      - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....k4PHTHOy.dpuf

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
        U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who called for "an ultimate resolution" of the conflict during talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on March 31 in Washington.

        At his meeting with Kerry, Aliyev thanked the United States for trying to end the conflict but said it could only be resolved through a UN Security Council resolution calling for the "immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops" from Azerbaijan.
        Did this meeting encourage Azerbaijan to attack?

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Originally posted by lampron View Post
          Did this meeting encourage Azerbaijan to attack?
          There is a developing trend here. The shooting of the Russian jet by turks was certainly oked by USA, this latest attack by azeris happening after a meeting with Kerry. I hope whatever this is that it will not last long but I am afraid this is USA policy now where it tries to draw Russia into a quagmire or a vulnerable position by sparking conflicts around her periphery. Once again we are caught between superpowers but I respect Serj and his abilities to deal with these powers as foreign relations seem to be his strong suite.
          Hayastan or Bust.

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
            There is a developing trend here. The shooting of the Russian jet by turks was certainly oked by USA, this latest attack by azeris happening after a meeting with Kerry. I hope whatever this is that it will not last long but I am afraid this is USA policy now where it tries to draw Russia into a quagmire or a vulnerable position by sparking conflicts around her periphery. Once again we are caught between superpowers but I respect Serj and his abilities to deal with these powers as foreign relations seem to be his strong suite.
            I do not believe it will deteriorate further.

            1- Oil prices dropped back to their lowest point after some gains in months.
            2- aliyev returned back from the states empty hands with the usual BS
            3- Obama wasn't too chummy with erdogan

            All the above equated to extreme frustration from the turkic gang. Their frustrations turned to blind, stupid attacks.

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Originally posted by Azad View Post
              I do not believe it will deteriorate further.

              1- Oil prices dropped back to their lowest point after some gains in months.
              2- aliyev returned back from the states empty hands with the usual BS
              3- Obama wasn't too chummy with erdogan

              All the above equated to extreme frustration from the turkic gang. Their frustrations turned to blind, stupid attacks.
              I hope you are right. If this is a Turkish only affair then we can retaliate rather harshly and make the azeris pay a very hi price. Precedent though for this region is the involvement of bigger powers directly or indirectly.
              Hayastan or Bust.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Sargsyan has had a phone conversation with Putin, and Nalbandian with Lavrov in past 24 hrs. Things are happening behind curtains.
                For sure this has connection with Russo/Turkish and Russo/west political confrontations. I think as Turkey has been cornered by Russia in Syria and Moscow has been sending reconsilatory signals after turning the tide in Syria, Turks are trying to create a situation in Artsakh to be used as pressure.
                In any case, the outcome in battlefields dictated by us or Baku will either brake or make Ankara's dark plans.
                One thing speaks for not a very solid or dangerous plans as erdaghan has been very erratic lately that has not been supported by west very much.
                We can bring this to an outcome that can be very beneficial for us. We need to kick Azery ass big time.

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Originally posted by Hakob View Post
                  Sargsyan has had a phone conversation with Putin, and Nalbandian with Lavrov in past 24 hrs. Things are happening behind curtains.
                  For sure this has connection with Russo/Turkish and Russo/west political confrontations. I think as Turkey has been cornered by Russia in Syria and Moscow has been sending reconsilatory signals after turning the tide in Syria, Turks are trying to create a situation in Artsakh to be used as pressure.
                  In any case, the outcome in battlefields dictated by us or Baku will either brake or make Ankara's dark plans.
                  One thing speaks for not a very solid or dangerous plans as erdaghan has been very erratic lately that has not been supported by west very much.
                  We can bring this to an outcome that can be very beneficial for us. We need to kick Azery ass big time.
                  I believe you're absolutely right, Hakob. The Turks are again punching well above their weight class and getting clobbered by the Russians and their own leaders idiotic behavior. I believe they urged Aliyev on (no that he needed too much urging) to attack and force an advantageous outcome. The Azeris will lose this round too but both sides will pay a cost. Armenian forces need to endure and counter, they need to inflict maximum damage. Armenia might be in a position soon to recognize Artsakh.
                  General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Originally posted by Joseph View Post
                    I believe you're absolutely right, Hakob. The Turks are again punching well above their weight class and getting clobbered by the Russians and their own leaders idiotic behavior. I believe they urged Aliyev on (no that he needed too much urging) to attack and force an advantageous outcome. The Azeris will lose this round too but both sides will pay a cost. Armenian forces need to endure and counter, they need to inflict maximum damage. Armenia might be in a position soon to recognize Artsakh.
                    We need a decisive outcome to end this once and for all.
                    Hayastan or Bust.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                      We need a decisive outcome to end this once and for all.
                      Agreed.
                      General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

                      Comment

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