Regional geopolitics

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Vrej you do not care to learn nor about facts nor about anything else-nothing will get through that thick skull of yours so there is no point explaining anything nor expecting anything beyond hate and miserable negativity from you. Its all bad all the time and its all Russia's fault. I could tell you that education and creativity are the main ingredients in the technology sector and that Armenia has both but what difference does it make? It does not matter to you at all - you remind me of Gegeve another russophobe who like you will blame Russia for his hemorrhoids but that does not make his nor your accusations true. Just go dig a hole somewhere and fester away in your own misery.

[Mher]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Mher you are under the impression that Ukraine is one country but pretty much everyone here and even the western media has pointed out that is it not. Different parts of the country people want different things. I do not think Ukraine will be able to be united after these events and it will either be divided between the powers fighting over it now or Russia will take the whole thing and still the country will be divided...What people like Vrej fail to understand is again the opportunity cost which means your alternative basically is costlier then the course Armenia has chosen. If we somehow move away from Russian orbit then what is the likely scenario (opportunity cost)? Well this is what seems to be the tripping point for peeps here who claim Armenia has other options.. well lets look at the other options shall we? Jump into bed with the west is one option..so lets look at the countries that did this and when we do we see that they have fallen prey to western imperial powers which have bankrupt them and destroyed their countries..look at Greece or any of the other eastern European countries who went to the west and are broke now..you think this is an accident..well no it is not, you see the west is a imperial format also and it preys on these smaller weaker countries and not just in europe but in middle east, Africa, Asia..They make the Russians look like humanitarians by comparison. Now add to this the fact that leaving Russian orbit means losing its protection thus now we are at the mercy of the either the Turk or Iran so now you see that leaving Russian orbit in no way implies freedom but instead it means subjugation by another imperial power...now ask yourself if being in Turky's or Iran's orbit is better than being in Russian orbit? Now we know full well what being ruled by the Turk is like(perhaps some have forgotten or were not taught) but i think the conensus is no and it should be hell no-now lets look at Iran which is a theocracy built on islam-while Iran is very hospitable compared to other muslim countries for Armenians, i do not see many picking it over Russia. This is what i mean by opportunity cost being too high..our alternatives are far worst. Thinking like Vrej is exactly what prompted the genocide..yes lets rebel and demand freedom while we have no way of either achieving it nor maintaining it..all this does is expose us as easy opportunity to be taken advantage of. You think the west will protect us..lol... they are waiting for the opportunity to feast on our corpses much like the article posted above. It is painfully obvious people like Vrej and many others have not learned the lessons of history. I do not advocate staying in the Russian orbit because i love Russia..i advocate it because it is our only rational option. As for the customs union here Armenia really does have strong opportunities in the long term. These opportunities stem from its Unique climate and topography when compared to other Custom union countries. We have both absolute and comparative advantages in some fields which will make us either the sole supplier of some goods(cogniac) or one of the very few suppliers of others(some electronic/software..) If you look at the most basic and the most true measure of opportunity which is a simple supply and demand chart you will understand that Armenia will be the sole or one of very few suppliers facing a huge market with a huge demand for its goods. This is no theory or hypothesis that i nor anyone else conjured up..it is a fact with precedent to soviet era. Now do you see how this can benefit Armenia? Yes i am a strong advocate for Armenia to remain in Russian orbit but this course of action i advocate only because it is in the best interest of Armenia to do so not as Vrej likes to babble about blind russophillia bs. Call names all you like ..the facts speak for themselves so long as you see them.

You're right, I don't dispute that the Ukrainian ethnic national identity is a fairly modern phenomenon, that's well known, but nonetheless, it is something that exists today, and something that an overwhelming majority of the people of that nation identify with. It is not as if the nation is split 50-50. Russians make up less than 20% of the population. So it's a little strange that Russia should have claims to half of Ukraine, or whatever the case may be. The "persecution" of Russian speakers was something that was as real as WMDs in Iraq. Just because the Ukrainians people thought their leader being bribed in the CU was bad for their nation did not mean there was an anti-Russian movement going on.

Look I don't doubt that Russia is important to Armenia's security. Moreover, I understand Russia gives us this security in exchange for our compliance, however, being forced to do something at the risk of annihilation doesn't make that option a positive one. The fact is, you're talking about being tied to a union that is 90% based on a single nation. A nation whose economy has slowed down dramatically. Russia's GDP growth was 1.3% last year! This is the economy that the pro-Russian crowd praises, comparing it to the "falling" EU nations. An economy whose growth before was driven by rising fuel prices. Something that makes it a highly volatile economy. And even that growth is now gone. That economy controlling the entire faith of such union. Is that something that you believe is the foundation for a strong union?

You're ultimately talking about a Union that unlike the EU, wasn't thought up by a group of people, led by much smaller parts, for the benefit of those founding members. You're talking about a union conceived and run by a single members composing the super majority, running it is for its own personal benefit, coercing others to join. You think if Russia ever finds the rules of the union inconvenient, it won't flip them overnight? In what way will Armenia's economy be benefited? By being able to sell software technology to a bunch of backward dictatorial countries where 10% of the country even has access to a computer? I somehow find it hard to believe the increase sale of cognac will be enough to offset across the board rise in costs of basic foodstuff for the entire nation. Moreover, I don't think the 10% bump in prices is gonna make people in Russia less likely to pick Iphones/Samsungs over Armenian products. Not to mention these rules will naturally be adjusted to benefit Russia, and even other members, to not be bothered by tiny Armenia's products. Same goes for technology. On the other hand, you're talking about opening up your products to the biggest economies in the world in the EU. Opening up your tech industry to the most advanced countries in the world. Ending the monopoly on your oligarchs. Becoming part of something much more stable, predictable, something that has a track record. Even the oh so terrible failing EU today enjoys a standard of living/per capita income many folds of that in the CU. Are some nations doing bad? Yes, but that's because they decided having endless vacations and taking occasional breaks from vacationing to actually work, was a sustainable system. That "suffering" hardly compares to actual suffering in Armenia.

At the end of the day, I understand the CU wasn't exactly an option, specially considering Armenia's less than stellar political leadership, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking, on a purely economical basis, it will be good for Armenia.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Yeh sure compare EU countries to Armenia yeh why not..Did you not see that USA and Britain had gdp right around 2%, did you not notice that we are still climbing out of economic crisis? What do you suppose will happen to gas prices in a recovery? Who will benefit? You know i can pick and choose numbers to make a bad situation look good and a good one look bad. It was Russia who had money ready and waiting for Ukraine not the west. It was Russian blood that was spilled to regain those territories from the ottomans. Do you realize that in the EU market Armenia has many competitors? Why should the Europeans by Armenian cogniac when they can buy French? Why should they buy our apricotts when they can buy from Turkey? You have a childish way of looking at the world around you Mher - perhaps you will grow out of it one day.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Vrej you do not care to learn nor about facts nor about anything else-nothing will get through that thick skull of yours so there is no point explaining anything nor expecting anything beyond hate and miserable negativity from you. Its all bad all the time and its all Russia's fault. I could tell you that education and creativity are the main ingredients in the technology sector and that Armenia has both but what difference does it make? It does not matter to you at all - you remind me of Gegeve another russophobe who like you will blame Russia for his hemorrhoids but that does not make his nor your accusations true. Just go dig a hole somewhere and fester away in your own misery.

As usual, smokescreen......


Are you sure you teach economics?????

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Putin Turns Attention to Eurasian Union
March 5, 2014 - ,
by Joana

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68106

Building a new triumvirate, or is it still all about Russia? (Photo: Russian Presidential Press Office)
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) welcomes his counterparts from Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko (left), and Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev (right), to Moscow on March 5 during a planning meeting for the Eurasian Economic Union. The Kremlin is aiming for a May 1 formal signing of the pact to create the EAU. (Photo: Russian Presidential Press Office)
After offering a coldly efficient example in Ukraine of the use of hard power, Russia’s paramount leader Vladimir Putin is turning his attention to shoring up Moscow’s soft power capabilities, namely keeping his vision for Eurasian unification on track. There are signs, however, that his Eurasian aspirations will be more difficult to fulfill than his Crimean land-grab.

Putin on March 5 convened a snap summit in Moscow, also attended by Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev and Belarus’ Alexandr Lukashenka. The meeting’s aim was perhaps more propagandistic than substantive, designed mainly as a show of diplomatic support amid Western efforts to isolate and punish Russia for what critics see as its de facto occupation of the Crimean peninsula. At the same time, it provided Putin an opportunity to test his cohorts’ resolve to press ahead with integration. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are currently co-joined in a customs union.

Putin’s Eurasian integration vision is widely seen as an ideological alternative to the EU that some have dubbed “Soviet Union lite.” Ukraine had been considered a key cog in Putin’s planned system. And now, with the Euromaidan Revolution poised to redirect Ukraine toward the West, Moscow policy planners are scrambling to make sure Eurasian unification sticks to the Kremlin timetable. A key date from the Kremlin’s standpoint is May 1, by which time a pact formally creating the Eurasian Economic Union (EAU) is due to be signed. Current customs union members – Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus – are expected to form the EAU’s cornerstone. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan also have pledged to join, with other formerly Soviet states potentially to follow.

Putin resorted to fear tactics at the March 5 summit as he encouraged his nominal allies to circle the wagons. He said Ukraine was a “key economic partner of the Customs Union,” and that the situation in Ukraine “gives rise to serious concern.” Its economy is “in grave, if not the gravest, crisis,” which could have “negative consequences for the Customs Union market,” he continued. Customs Union members need therefore to protect their producers, and also work out “parameters for future cooperation with Ukraine.”

“We definitely need to do everything to help our partners emerge from the difficult situation in which they find themselves today,” Putin added. Meanwhile, a statement issued by Nazarbayev’s office made no mention of Ukraine and stressed that the EAU plans should stick to the established schedule. “I hope we can reach consensus on all disputed questions,” the Nazarbayev statement noted.

Given the Russian military muscle flexing in Crimea, regional political analysts expect the Kremlin to expand its use of coercive tactics in an attempt to get other formerly Soviet states to join the EAU. Ultimately, Putin wants the EAU to develop into a broad economic and political union, naturally with Russia acting as the first among equals.

“The project will be pushed with even more fervor and current and potential Customs Union members will be faced with stark choices,” said Nargis Kassenova, director of the Central Asian Studies Center at Almaty’s KIMEP University. “The Cold-War logic of ‘us’ versus ‘them’ is winning the day, and Russian policy is becoming less nuanced.”

Observers generally believe that the Crimea crisis significantly complicates Putin’s Eurasian integration push, making it more difficult for the Kremlin to win hearts and minds elsewhere in the former Soviet Union.

Kazakhstan traditionally has been a staunch Russian ally, and President Nazarbayev has served as a cheerleader for integration, although even he has previously voiced concerns about Russian domination of the Customs Union. Yet early indicators show the Ukraine crisis has galvanized opposition in Kazakhstan to integration with Russia. Putin’s power play has fanned fears of Russian economic domination. Many also believe EAU membership would entail a loss of sovereignty.

“Russia, instead of trying to assure post-Soviet states that it does not have any imperial intentions … showed that it does not consider these states fully sovereign, and its interests override the international law principle of territorial integrity,” Kassenova told EurasiaNet.org. The issue of territorial integrity remains sensitive in Kazakhstan, given that some northern regions of the country are home to a large Russian minority.

Zhanbolat Mamay, an activist in Kazakhstan involved in a campaign opposing the country’s membership in the EAU, offered an even blunter assessment. “[The Eurasian Economic Union] is a revival of the Soviet Union in a new format – a Putin format,” he told a news conference on March 4.

Statements coming out of Moscow about Crimea, such as the denial that the Kremlin has deployed troops on Ukrainian territory but reserves the right to do so, is fueling suspicion in Kazakhstan. “We can’t be in a union with an occupying state,” economist Oraz Dzhandosov told the Ratel.su website.

A commentary published by the Delovaya Nedelya broadsheet said “the current crisis is perhaps the last chance for Astana to put the brakes on the Eurasian tango.” In a possible nod to the vocal opposition in Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev’s March 5 statement noted that the governments of member states should do more to explain the benefits of integration, which is being carried out for the “good of our peoples.”

In Kyrgyzstan, even prior to the Ukrainian crisis, officials were dragging their feet on the country’s membership bid. In December Bishkek angrily rejected a membership accession blueprint it said the union had tried to impose unilaterally – a sign of the highhandedness that often irks Russia’s partners.

Preparations to join the union continue, but on February 26 Economy Minister Temir Sariyev said Bishkek would not be entering “tomorrow.” Kyrgyzstan is hotly debating the benefits of membership, which would undermine booming transit trade with China, but offer better protections to millions of Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia. The Ukraine crisis is unlikely to assuage Kyrgyz uneasiness about hitching the country’s economy to Russia’s.

By contrast, Armenia has accelerated its membership bid, announcing on March 1 a desire to complete procedures required from Yerevan by mid-April. “The move could be an attempt by the current government to assure Russia that it is firmly pursuing pro-Russian integration at a time when the opposition is questioning the Customs Union and the gas deal [giving Russia control over Armenia’s gas sector] and the Ukrainian crisis is raging,” Lilit Gevorgyan, regional analyst at IHS Global Insight, told EurasiaNet.org.

That standoff “is certainly making it more difficult for Armenia, heavily dependent economically and militarily on Russia, to pursue a more balanced foreign policy between the West and Russia,” she added. Putin indicated on March 5 that he would welcome Armenia’s accelerated inclusion in the EAU.

[Mher]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Yeh sure compare EU countries to Armenia yeh why not..Did you not see that USA and Britain had gdp right around 2%, did you not notice that we are still climbing out of economic crisis? What do you suppose will happen to gas prices in a recovery? Who will benefit? You know i can pick and choose numbers to make a bad situation look good and a good one look bad. It was Russia who had money ready and waiting for Ukraine not the west. It was Russian blood that was spilled to regain those territories from the ottomans. Do you realize that in the EU market Armenia has many competitors? Why should the Europeans by Armenian cogniac when they can buy French? Why should they buy our apricotts when they can buy from Turkey? You have a childish way of looking at the world around you Mher - perhaps you will grow out of it one day.

It is a well known fact that America and the UK have a slow/moderate growing economy. I didn't think it was necessary to reiterate that. The point I was making is that people speak of Russia as it is the future, as if on the same parallel as China, while the West is the past. However, those people, conveniently forget that Russia has stopped growing. Moreover, this is not a surprise, because unlike China, whose the growth has been fueled by economic and political reform, Russia has been growing because of the same reason Azerbaijan has been growing: oil/gas prices. It is only a temporary phenomenon whose time has come to an end. What recovery? Oil prices are at an all time high, 3X what it was during the recession gas prices are as volatile as always. What else is supposed to happen? Moreover, America's economy growing at two percent or the EU at -1 to 0% is not nearly an issue as Russia, whose future prominence was based on an expected continuous significant growth.

Russia had money for Ukraine? So they get points for bribery? Is that how you rate a well run economy? A ruler, not having to worry about the opinion of the public, and being able to bribe inept foreign leaders, in charge of countries with a long history of failure to comply with loans? That's supposed to be a good thing? I hardly consider it an example of a well run economy if it takes 15 billion dollars, and threatening a cowards political future to have someone join that economy. I'm sorry if I don't judge someone's ill advised bribery of an inept nation as highly as you do. But regardless, Armenia is passed the courting stage. It's not like Russia needed to bribe us.

What does Russian blood for these territories have to do with Armenia and the CU? What does that have to do with their choice regarding their economic future?

Again, cognac is not the point. Who cares how much cognac is sold. The point is the blatant negatives staring at your face by joining the CU. The cost in increases of basic foodstuff, the cost of creating tariffs for the biggest chunk of your foreign trade, the EU, all in a bid to ultimately benefit Russia. Most of Armenia's exports right now are based on natural resources anyway. It's not like anyone anywhere is lining up to buy Armenian apricots, or Armenians cognac, or like those things are going to drive your economy. The point is joining a union without a single analysis out there regarding its potential economic ramification. Creating barriers against the world's biggest economies in favor of the backward regimes of central asia, whose entire weakening grip to power has been held by depleting natural resources.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Mher looks like you got them colorful glasses on to. Who cares about cognac and apricots? Well Armenia does care since these are major parts of its economy and these are just examples. There are blatant negatives in joining the EU to but you conveniantly ignore those and focus on the negatives of CU. Yes people will be lining up to buy Armenian apricots and cognac because after the custom duties go into effect these products will be far cheaper then our competitors in the for CU customers. This gives us exclusive access to hundreds of millions of customers. I should not have to explain this crap it is basic shiitt that any undergrad should be able to figure out on his own but you and many others have been brainwashed by western media and believe that nothing but the west can save you. The western propaganda has turned you and most others into brain dead zombies whose ability to think for themselves has been severely compromised and their perception of the world reduced to catch phrases and meaningless words like Democracy, freedom, western values, ....of course non of these things neither exist nor matter in the west but it is obvious that they got you believing that they do exist and matter and not only that but that you should spread them to others since they are so great for u. Use your brain instead of rehashing western probaganda-look at what really matters like security, sustained long term development and growth, education. "without a single analysis" you say right after i gave you a good analysis but of course not only did you disregard my analysis you completely disregard the comparative and absolute advantages Armenia would have in a customs/eurasian union as well. The traditional "worlds biggest economies" are not growing and Asia is where the future is at and the Eurasion union is designed to take advantage of this growth. The eurasion union has great potential because no trading blocks exist in that region and many other countries will want to join it once it is up and running and proving its effectiveness. The success of the Eurasion union is exactly what the west is terrified of and that is why it is attaching so much negativity to it and comparing it with soviet times.. Western media has got you so brainwashed that you utterly ignore all facts even when i spoon feed them to you while sticking with your zombie braindead propaganda no matter what. This is exactly what western media is doing-it keeps you not just stupid but also utterly incaapable of absorbing any information contrary to its propaganda. You are not the only one - there are many millions like you - braindead zombies drewling from the mouth hungry for more western bs. You have a brain and that brain is good for much more then repeating what the news says so use it accordingly.

[UrMistake]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Haykakan while myself im more pro CU i live in EU after all and i know what kind of bullxxxx they are feeding us here also , they criticized the GOLDEN DANW a nazi party here in greece ..but they legitimize nazi government with 7 ministries in its hand in Ukraine ..and thats ok for them .

Dont mention their hypocrisy at all.

I just want to ask u not make it personal in this forum . i like to read ur posts also Mhers and we all can make our own assumptions of eachother, i would ask u to refrain personal attacks and make your posts distinguishable with spaces between commas that would make it more readable .

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Haykakan while myself im more pro CU i live in EU after all and i know what kind of bullxxxx they are feeding us here also , they criticized the GOLDEN DANW a nazi party here in greece ..but they legitimize nazi government with 7 ministries in its hand in Ukraine ..and thats ok for them .

Dont mention their hypocrisy at all.

I just want to ask u not make it personal in this forum . i like to read ur posts also Mhers and we all can make our own assumptions of eachother, i would ask u to refrain personal attacks and make your posts distinguishable with spaces between commas that would make it more readable .

Nah man its not personal -its the truth. I dont say he is the only misinformed person i say he is a part of the misinformed/stupid horde so it is not personal. Perhaps you can further educate our members here along with Mher on the bullccrap that is the EU or even worst the USA. I do get frustrated with people who ignore the facts even when i do all the work of pointing them out and showing how and why they are the facts only to be countered by stupid comments like "Who cares about cognac and apricots". If out of all the stuff i wrote this is the comment you come up with well then you deserve to be called stupid and brainwashed because you just proved that you are. Not that this condition cannot be changed but still what else was i supposed to call it?

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

It is a well known fact that America and the UK have a slow/moderate growing economy. I didn't think it was necessary to reiterate that. The point I was making is that people speak of Russia as it is the future, as if on the same parallel as China, while the West is the past. However, those people, conveniently forget that Russia has stopped growing. Moreover, this is not a surprise, because unlike China, whose the growth has been fueled by economic and political reform, Russia has been growing because of the same reason Azerbaijan has been growing: oil/gas prices. It is only a temporary phenomenon whose time has come to an end. What recovery? Oil prices are at an all time high, 3X what it was during the recession gas prices are as volatile as always. What else is supposed to happen? Moreover, America's economy growing at two percent or the EU at -1 to 0% is not nearly an issue as Russia, whose future prominence was based on an expected continuous significant growth.
......

Mher

I think your assessment of the economies of the US and the UK are far too optimistic.

The debt levels and the burden on their economies is unsustainable, ( No different than Greece).

The interest on those debts is higher than Government income, tax receipts etc.
This has been the case for a number of years.
Therefore payment of those debts is impossible despite resorting to printing money at unprecedented levels.
Incidentally if we resorted to paying our way in the lifestyle we are accustomed to, we would be put in prison for many years.

On a more serious note - Russia, China and a number of other countries who are seeing this are trying to decouple themselves from this fraud.
The answer of the US is a variant of the Libya scenario.
You may wish to research why Libya and Gadhafi went the way they did.

You need to see the CU from this perspective.

.