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Re: Regional geopolitics
Above two posts are another patch and predict from Igor Mouradian, where he overlooks some very important points in his doom and gloom predictions.
1) there was never a talk or any offer from US for Armenia ever being a nato member or any security guarantees to us. Even US ally, Georgia has not been given that umbrella in any level that could comparably satisfy any security demand in our case. So Georgia-Armenia NATO Block is just one of Igor's daydreams.
2) He forgets that before september 3 decision, Azerbaijan was being armed by Russia at such rate that threatened with overwhelming military imbalance and subsequent war in which we would be left without any viable support.
Even if Us would throw it's support, we would end up like Georgia in 2008, against Russian supplied Azeri/Turkish onslaught.
3) Before september 3(or after) US and EU never gave any security guarantees as does Russia. Their game was rather, if you won't go with us then you are excluded from club.
4) 2008 Georgia war showed how much US was willing to openly confront Russia in south caucasus. Crimea comes on top to prove this point.
5) US rather tries to achieve strategic goals against Russia by using proxies, like Georgia, Ukraine. And the fate of those countries should be enough to shut Igor's mouth. I have all the reasons to predict that US will try to use proxies in caucasus next time too in which case, I see possibility of once and for all ending Artsakh conflict on our terms. i don't think that turkey will openly involve in war with Russia, It is weak politically in region and even in Syria, uses proxies.
6) Unlike US, Russia is physically involved in military defense of the area. One should think of the scenario if that would be on Azeri side.
7) Igor talks of Russia letting go Armenia in war scenario, which I find he does without any viable analysis, but just thoughts.
The escalation of US/Russia conflict and isolation threats tell that on the contrary, Russia will try to hang on to any platform it has in southern caucasus dearly. Loosing Border with iran will be impermissible. Armenia's strategic value will increase many folds.
Any pullback from southern caucasus will threaten Russia's southern regions, Chechnya, Dagestan.
8) it still has to be seen what kind of (if any) containment will US manage, as it is obvious that it is loosing the Ukraine game strategically.
I would like to say that in this regard, Crimea was the main point of US drive to pull Ukraine away from Russia because without it russia would effectively be shut off from mediterranean and important warm water naval bases. But as we saw, Russia did the preemptive move and completely neutralized this scenario.
The reaction from US and subsequent sanctions have no comparison in effects.
9) There is a gap between EU and US that is widening in terms of economic sanctions against Russia, plus, it seems that Russia is starting to win the information/ propaganda war too.
10) any alliance of US/Azerbaijan will be very shaky at best, as with comparison in Georgia, Aliev clan can never fully cooperate with washington for fear of loosing power. Any, even false democracy development is unacceptable to Aliev. In case US tries to change him, country will go into ethnic upheavals and loose military readiness.
Also would like to add that Igor's derogatory remarks as zone or anything else for Armenia, makes himself irrelevant, as to put into question his real motives, Is he really acting as simple opposition or talks on behalf of Armenia. In which case no level minded would call it a "zone".
Above two posts are another patch and predict from Igor Mouradian, where he overlooks some very important points in his doom and gloom predictions.
1) there was never a talk or any offer from US for Armenia ever being a nato member or any security guarantees to us. Even US ally, Georgia has not been given that umbrella in any level that could comparably satisfy any security demand in our case. So Georgia-Armenia NATO Block is just one of Igor's daydreams.
2) He forgets that before september 3 decision, Azerbaijan was being armed by Russia at such rate that threatened with overwhelming military imbalance and subsequent war in which we would be left without any viable support.
Even if Us would throw it's support, we would end up like Georgia in 2008, against Russian supplied Azeri/Turkish onslaught.
3) Before september 3(or after) US and EU never gave any security guarantees as does Russia. Their game was rather, if you won't go with us then you are excluded from club.
4) 2008 Georgia war showed how much US was willing to openly confront Russia in south caucasus. Crimea comes on top to prove this point.
5) US rather tries to achieve strategic goals against Russia by using proxies, like Georgia, Ukraine. And the fate of those countries should be enough to shut Igor's mouth. I have all the reasons to predict that US will try to use proxies in caucasus next time too in which case, I see possibility of once and for all ending Artsakh conflict on our terms. i don't think that turkey will openly involve in war with Russia, It is weak politically in region and even in Syria, uses proxies.
6) Unlike US, Russia is physically involved in military defense of the area. One should think of the scenario if that would be on Azeri side.
7) Igor talks of Russia letting go Armenia in war scenario, which I find he does without any viable analysis, but just thoughts.
The escalation of US/Russia conflict and isolation threats tell that on the contrary, Russia will try to hang on to any platform it has in southern caucasus dearly. Loosing Border with iran will be impermissible. Armenia's strategic value will increase many folds.
Any pullback from southern caucasus will threaten Russia's southern regions, Chechnya, Dagestan.
8) it still has to be seen what kind of (if any) containment will US manage, as it is obvious that it is loosing the Ukraine game strategically.
I would like to say that in this regard, Crimea was the main point of US drive to pull Ukraine away from Russia because without it russia would effectively be shut off from mediterranean and important warm water naval bases. But as we saw, Russia did the preemptive move and completely neutralized this scenario.
The reaction from US and subsequent sanctions have no comparison in effects.
9) There is a gap between EU and US that is widening in terms of economic sanctions against Russia, plus, it seems that Russia is starting to win the information/ propaganda war too.
10) any alliance of US/Azerbaijan will be very shaky at best, as with comparison in Georgia, Aliev clan can never fully cooperate with washington for fear of loosing power. Any, even false democracy development is unacceptable to Aliev. In case US tries to change him, country will go into ethnic upheavals and loose military readiness.
Also would like to add that Igor's derogatory remarks as zone or anything else for Armenia, makes himself irrelevant, as to put into question his real motives, Is he really acting as simple opposition or talks on behalf of Armenia. In which case no level minded would call it a "zone".
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