The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It might be time for Ukraine to break into two.

Or for the eastern ukrainians to take back control with the aid of Russia and possibly join the Russian-Belarussian Union. That would amazing.

[Angessa]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Thanks, Angessa.
I had a good laugh

Not just Americans though. There were also Ukrainians, Turks, Israelis and all three types of Balts.

Did you know that the Ukrainian mercenaries were the Zapadeni Ukrainians from Western Ukraine (Lviv, Karpati etc.)? If you never met them then let me tell you these are some of the most disgusting creatures you'd ever meet.

The contrast between Western and Eastern Ukraine is just unbelievable. It's a shame that such a beautiful country is ruled by haters like Yushenko. But his time is running out too and unlike Georgia the opposition in Ukraine is real and very strong. They just need the moral support from Russia. I'm sure Putin got something in mind.

I knew people would love it.Yes but there without no doubt american forces( I assume special forces) was among the Georgian. My father Sotnia fought those Ukrainian mercenary during Georgian civil war, but I never met them personal and glad I have not.

This is more funny and I have to give it to Rice to say this without laughing.
Russia's reputation in tatters: Rice


ASHINGTON (AFP) - Russia's international reputation has been left in tatters by its military action in Georgia, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday.


"Russia overreached, used disproportionate force against a small neighbor and is now paying the price for that because Russia's reputation as a potential partner in international institutions, diplomatic, political, security, economic, is frankly, in tatters," Rice told NBC's "Meet the Press."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080817/pl_afp/georgiarussiaconflictusricereputation_080817141927

It was only small forces used agianst Georgia and we have ever right to do it( law rise and defensively ). Unlike there massive force who illegally attacked and bombarded a small harmless nation(Iraq). I cant imagination how she could say this without breaking into laughing about hypocritical it is.

[Illuminator]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

BTC pipeline dead? That is excellent news!!!

[RSNATION]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

BTC pipeline dead? That is excellent news!!!

Not yet. It's down temporarily.

[Lucin]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Georgia and the West: Goebbels Would Have Been Happy!



The war in South Ossetia is a war of medieval atrocity unleashed by a country whose culture is based on Orthodox Christianity, a country claiming to be "a young democracy" and seeing itself as part of the "humane" Europe. The aggression launched by the current Georgian regime and its puppeteers is marked by extraordinary cruelty and cynical lies. Tbilisi would have never dared to do what it did without the support of the US.

Even in Ancient Greece, there was an understanding that wars can be fair or unfair. The civilized West, part of which Georgia is trying to be, is obsessed by human rights and believes to be superior to the Greeks, but this does not prevent some (Georgia) from perpetrating genocide and others (Europe and the US) - from encouraging the aggressor.

The analysis of the way the aggression began - without a formal declaration of war - and of the overall conduct of the Georgian leadership makes one ask a number of questions. One of them is: can a crazy fanatic be regarded as a human being? The answer is - definitely not! The crimes committed in South Ossetia - the killings of women, children, and senior citizens, the deliberate extermination of civilians - are instances of inhuman conduct.

Specialists in ethical anthropology (Boris Didenko) either explain this type of behavior by brain disease or attribute it to the specifics of conduct of super-aggressive human species. In the latter case, their intentions simply cannot be changed. In the Russian language, such individuals are called non-men. These are monstrous creatures more dangerous than any wild beasts.

The protracted standoff in South Ossetia is something much greater than just a regional conflict. Nor has it ever been exclusively a conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia. It also has axiological, moral, and geopolitical dimensions. The unexpectedness and unjustifiable atrocity of the current war, the careful planning of its military and informational offensives show clearly that one of the objectives was to provoke Russia's inadequate response. Moscow was expected to act inadequately, and those who planned the aggression calculated the options open to Russia.

Option 1: Russia's nonintervention and a withdrawal of the peacekeepers (or the limitation of their activity to the defense of their checkpoints). By the way, this mode of behavior was typical for peacekeeping forces of various levels throughout the conflict in Yugoslavia. Operation Storm and Operation Flash launched by the Croatian army in May-August, 1995 against the unrecognized Republic of Serpska Krajina were particularly similar to the Georgian offensive in South Ossetia.

One of the results of the above operations was the total (and, as I firmly believe, deliberate) demise of the entire UN system of peacekeeping and region security measures. The world literally watched the flight of 250,000 Serb civilians and the bombardment of refugee convoys by Croatian warplanes. The Serb population in the region decreased by 90.7% following the Croatian offensive which was silently OKed by the international community (1)! Confident of the US support, Saakashvili's regime hoped to achieve a similar result in South Ossetia. Croatia practically turned into a mono-ethnic state. No matter what had been promised, at that time Serbs saw no help from either the Serbian Republic or Belgrade. It is well-known what happened to the Pale and Belgrade leaders later - betrayal is never rewarded by happiness.

Russia chose to act otherwise.

In the horrible days of the tragedy, Russians not only truly fulfilled their peacekeeping obligations, but - above all - they also did not betray their countrymen in South Ossetia. This means a lot!

Option 2: desired by the US instigators of the war and the Georgian aggressor: Russia's direct involvement in an armed conflict with Georgia. The failure of the expectation made Saakshvili change his plans on the first day of the war.

On August 9, the Georgian Fuhrer gave a 10-minute interview to CNN, which opened an obviously synchronized anti-Russian campaign in the Western media. Currently, the main theme is that Russia used all of its military might against the tiny Georgia. Having such dedicated followers could make Nazi propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels happy. As for Saakashvili, he has learned by heart not only Goebbels's notorious commandment "A lie repeated 100 times becomes the thruth", but also the ninth comandment of national socialism which said "Do what must be done in the name of the New Gemany without shame! " (2). In the case of Saakashvili, it could read the same but with "the New Georgia" instead.

Over the past several days, the independent and objective Western media have been launching an all-out mankurtization campaign. The term mankurt was introduced into modern languages by well-know Soviet-era novelist Chinghiz Aitmatov in his The Day Lasts More Than a Hundred Years. According to an ancient Turkic myth, a fresh raw camel hide would be put as a cap on the thoroughly shaven head of a captive meant to be turned into a slave. The slave with his hands tied and with a large wooden stock around his neck preventing him from reaching his head would be left in a desert for several days. Once the hide would start drying it would shrink and bind to the head, thus causing intolerable sufferings further strengthened by thirst. In a while the victim either died or lost the memory of the past life and became a perfect slave having no independent will and totally subdued by its master.

In the modern world, the complex procedure of suppressing human will and ability to think and to analyze has become extremely simple and is known as brainwashing.

Judging by the dirty lies about the war waged by the Georgian leadership against civilians and Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, the biased Western media and political leaders of the Euro-Atlantic civilization regard their own citizens as mankurts. The global success of brainwashing during the Croatian, Bosnian, Kosovo, Chechen, Iraqi, Crimean, Transdnistrian and other crises is renowned. The aggression of mankurts was invariably directed at the nations designated by the masters - Serbs, Russians, Iraqis... What could prevent Georgia from resorting to the familiar technology?

Here is an example: the interview given to CNN by Russian envoy to the UN Security Council V. Churkin, in which he condemned the barbarian conduct of the Georgian aggressor, was aired with a caption saying that Russia was bombing Georgian towns, and the title remained on the screen throughout the broadcast. German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer would have explained the current policies adopted by Western media as follows: "invariably, the source of lies is the intention to dominate others by suppressing their will in order to reaffirm one's own. Consequently, lies as such stem from injustice, greed, and anger".

Western journalists who never visited South Ossetia and used the footage from Russian media consistently avoided mentioning the following appalling figures: 2,000 people - over 15% of the population of South Ossetia - had been killed in less than 24 hours. The international community so preoccupied with human rights issues does not seem to be concerned about the people trapped without water, electric power, and food under the ruins of Tskhinvali.

Why is it that Russia is the only country to supply humanitarian aid to South Ossetia? What has happened to your hearts, humane Europeans? Have you forgotten how to use Internet? Do you no longer have satellite TV? Are you really so afraid of alternative information sources?

***

To an extent, my criticism of the Western media and their audiences applies to Russian news agencies and TV channels as well. We must be doing a fairly poor job if it is so easy to portray Russia as the aggressor and the suppressor of the Caucasus!

It is common knowledge that whoever has information has power. In the case of Russia, the issue is extremely serious: its national security and the protection of its national interests are impossible without informational security, which must be promoted by everyone here from the President to a provincial newspaper journalist. Anyhow, we are people, not mankurts!

Source: http://www.iras.ir/English/Default_v...0Been%20Happy!


The Balkan Roots of the War in South Ossetia


The current developments in the Caucasus are a manifestation of a broader tendency which is going to play a fundamental role in the global politics for years to come.

The crimes committed by the Georgian regime led by M. Saakashvili became possible not only as a result of the military-technical assistance massively provided to Georgia by the US and other countries touting their democratic images, but also due to the collapse of the system of international law which took place on February 17, 2008. On that date, Albanian extremists proclaimed the independence of Kosovo, another conflict zone in the Eurasian space. According to various UN resolutions, Kosovo had to remain a part of Serbia and an international peacekeeping mission was deployed in Kosovo under the UN flag. Western countries not only raised no objections to the unilateral declaration of the Kosovo independence, but welcomed it as the optimal solution.

Throughout the months after the declaration, Moscow kept warning that the "Kosovo independence" would undermine the entire system of international relations. The Kosovo scenario would equally attract the leaders of numerous separatist movements worldwide and the regimes eager to suppress opposition by force. In February and March, international politics watchers followed with a great deal of surprise the cacophony in Tbilisi's official assessments of the Kosovo phenomenon. Already on February 18, the very next day after the Kosovo Parliament had voted for independence, Georgian Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze said Georgia did not recognize the independence of Kosovo. He said that Georgians were united on the issue regardless of their individual political preferences1. As for the unity, it was clearly an overstatement - already on March 29 Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said in an interview to Estonian media that "since the friends of Georgia had recognized the Independence of Kosovo" it would be quite natural for Georgia to do the same2. The statement outraged the opposition which condemned it as unacceptable in the light of Georgia's problems with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Saakashvili sided with the opposition on the issue and said that Georgia had no plans to recognize the independence of Kosovo.

The uncertainty of Georgia's stance is explainable. The country is struggling to combine loyalty to the US in every aspect of politics with at least a shadow of common sense at the face of the threat posed to Georgia's positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia by the self-proclaimed Kosovo independence. The truth is that the illegitimate outcome in Kosovo absolved politicians like Saakashvili of any legal limitations whatsoever. If the Kosovo Albanians could forge a country of their own by means of anti-Serbian ethnic cleansing, what could prevent Tbilisi from cleansing Ossetians from South Ossetia?

Ordering the invasion of South Ossetia and planning a similar aggression against Abkhazia, Saakashvili was simply trying to benefit from the fact that after February 17 the UN, the OCSE, the Council of Europe, and likewise organizations were no longer the guarantors of the international law. Saakashvili's reckoning was absolutely correct in this respect. The Georgian Fuhrer did make a mistake, but of a different kind: as in the not-so-distant past, he and his US patrons expected to meet no resolute opposition from Russia.

Speaking on conditions of anonymity, a diplomat shared with me certain details of the discussions between Russia and the US in the UN Security Council during the crisis in South Ossetia. The US supported by Great Britain was promoting its vision of the situation with great hypocrisy and stubbornness. Allegedly, there were no 2,000 civilian fatalities in South Ossetia and no 30,000 refugees who fled the Republic. Even if there were any civilian casualties, the people were killed by Russian air strikes. When asked whether they recognized the fact that Russian peacekeepers had been killed, US diplomats mumbled that indeed that was pretty odd, but at the moment it was Russia who was the cause of tensions and had to be stopped. The Russian delegation invoked the recent hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, during which the UN Security Council kept trying for a whole month to pass a resolution calling for a ceasefire and thus to stop fire from the Israeli side, but the US neutralized the attempts. Americans replied that it was a different type of a situation, there were terrorists and they had to be suppressed. They also claimed that the situation in Yugoslavia was different and had nothing to do with the current developments in the Caucasus. My source said that at the moment talking to Americans in the UN Security Council was completely useless.

All that remains is to admit that Moscow's recurrent warnings concerning the imminent demise of the entire system of international relations as a result of the "Kosovo independence" did not help. Now that the collapse is an accomplished fact, there are no reasons for Russia to refrain from acting according to the new rules of the game, and not only in South Ossetia but also in other regions where it has vital interests, including the Balkans.

Source: http://www.iras.ir/English/Default_v...outh%20Ossetia

***********

A Criminal From Tbilisi. Aspects of Genocide in South Ossetia from the Standpoint of the International Law

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Interestingly, a day before the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was set-ablaze in eastern Turkey. According to some reports this action was carried out by PKK fighters; or was it the work of the FSB/GRU in anticipation of the Georgian invasion? Now there is talk in Moscow that the pipeline in question may not be allowed to resume its operation. With approximately 40% of the West's oil/gas import already in Russian control, the chances of finding a new pipeline that can bring Central Asian/Caspian Sea oil/gas to the West free of Moscow's control are fading quite fast. Russia's global energy dominance is clearly on the rise.

Armenian

********************************

Petropolitics at heart of Russia-Georgia clash

Firemen struggle to extinguish the fire at the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline near the eastern Turkish city of Erzincan August 7, 2008. The BTC pipeline is still ablaze after an explosion and may not repon for another one to two weeks, a senior source at Turkey's state-owned pipeline company Botas told Reuters on Thursday.

In both geopolitical and economic terms, the United States appears a loser in the Russia-Georgia conflict. If the pipeline crossing Georgia, bringing approximately a million barrels of Caspian oil a day to the West, remains shut down for much longer, it could result in higher oil prices. "We could see $4 a gallon gasoline again," warns Edward Yardeni, an American consulting economist. The 1,100-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline provides only about 1 percent of the global demand for oil. But, as Prof. Michael Klare of Amherst College notes: "There's not a lot of spare [crude oil] capacity" in the world. In the long-running struggle for control of Caspian oil and gas and influence in the ex-Soviet states of that region, the clash has been a blow to US clout. "The Russians come out of this as winning this round," says Professor Klare. "They are the power brokers in this part of the world…. But there will be more skirmishes to come."

Klare, author of "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy," sees the conflict as "not a battle for democracy," as portrayed by Washington. "It was a battle for energy," he says. Oil reserves underneath the Caspian Sea are believed to be huge, perhaps as much as 200 billion barrels. That compares with the estimated 260 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia. In his State of the Union Address in 1980, President Jimmy Carter proclaimed what has become known as the "Carter doctrine." It stated that the US would use military force if necessary to defend its national interest in the Persian Gulf region. Carter saw the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan at that time as "a grave threat to the free movement of Middle East oil." President Clinton, as Klare sees it, expanded the Carter doctrine "more or less" to include Caspian oil. The BTC pipeline, taking crude from Azerbaijan through Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where it is loaded on tankers for the international market, was "Clinton's brainchild," says Klare.

President Bush has heated up what Klare regards as a struggle over vital resources, rather than a throwback to the cold-war era or classic balance-of-power politics. In that struggle, the US helped Mikheil Saakashvili win the presidency in Georgia after its 2003 "Rose Revolution" and helped build up and train Georgia's armed forces. When the American-educated Saakashvili attempted to show his mettle and restore the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia's control, the Russians took the opportunity to show who is boss. Klare worries that an American military adviser might be hit inadvertently by a Russian bomb, raising US-Russia tensions further. "Throughout the Caucasus, the US has been striving to establish pro-American governments for strategic reasons," says William Beeman, chair of the anthropology department at the University of Minnesota. One reason aside from Caspian oil, Professor Beeman suspects, is to provide a staging area for possible attacks on such perceived enemies as Iran and Syria.

The $4 billion BTC pipeline, managed by and 30 percent owned by British Petroleum, was routed through Georgia to avoid sending Caspian oil through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, or Russia. A 10-mile pipeline could have connected Caspian oil to the well-developed Iranian pipeline system. Beeman charges that millions in government bribes changed hands to place the pipeline in its tortuous route. Georgian authorities charged Russia with trying to bomb the pipeline last Tuesday, a pipeline that had been buried deep in a trench for the sake of security. BP stated it was unaware of such bombings. In any case, the BTC flow of oil – about $1 billion worth every 10 days – had already been stopped by an earlier fire at a facility in Turkey. Kurdish rebels, known as the PKK, claimed the fire was their responsibility.

There have been plans to take the same Georgia route for a Caspian natural-gas pipeline ending in Europe. Klare considers the Russian action as partially a warning that this is not a good idea. Such a pipeline would offer serious competition to Gazprom, the giant Russian oil-and-gas conglomerate. Russia supplies one-quarter of the oil and half the natural gas consumed in Europe, and the revenue is seen as key to Russian prosperity. The European Union has been keen on the Georgia plan as a way to gain bargaining power and reduce the risk of supply cutoffs. But the Russia-Georgia war may have reduced the prospects for such a gas pipeline getting financing and European backing. "I wouldn't hold my breath," says Klare. He advocates that the US, EU, Russia, and the Caspian states develop a comprehensive regional energy plan for Caspian oil and gas.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0816/p14s01-cogn.html

Russia: BTC Pipeline is 'Dead'

A Turkish energy ministry official confirmed that the BTC pipeline blast was a terrorist act. But what’s more, Russia’s international politics advisor to the Russian Duma declared the pipeline “dead” and that it would never operate again. An adviser to the Russian parliament also claimed the closed pipeline would not be opened again and declared the line is “dead”. “The world and countries in the region have seen that not NATO, but Russia is the only one who could secure the energy routes,” Alexander Dugin, international politics advisor to the Russia’s Duma, told Turkish Cumhuriyet daily. “In this context, regarding Turkey’s energy politics, it should be said that the BTC is not running at the moment and it will not run again.” How can they know it will not run again? Because they have the communist PKK at the ready to ensure it stays dead with more bombings if necessary. Earlier this week, we asked “Did Russia Employ Communist PKK Ahead of Georgia Invasion?” The PKK took responsibility for the BTC pipeline bombing. But it remains likely that the communist terrorists got marching orders from Vladimir Putin, one of the opening kinetic salvos into the drive on Georgia. The comment above from Alexander Dugin is a clear indicator for those not already aware that Russia’s intent in Georgia extends far beyond the dirt and people in the former Soviet republic. The larger target is western Europe and the United States. But the conflict is too hot to term it Cold War II. At least in Georgia - and Turkey, if one believes as I do that the PKK acted on Russian request or direction.

Source: http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2...eline-is-dead/

In related news:

Georgian rail bridge blast hits Azeri oil exports

Azerbaijan suspended oil exports through ports in western Georgia on Sunday after an explosion damaged a key rail bridge there. Georgia accused Russian troops of blowing up a railway bridge west of the capital Tbilisi earlier in the day, saying its main east-west train link had been severed. Russia strongly denied any involvement. "Transportation of oil and oil products in the western direction by railway has been suspended," Azerbaijan's state railway company said in a statement read out on television. It gave the bridge explosion as the reason for the suspension. "The last shipment made by this railway contained 15 tanks," it said. Another 72 oil tanks had been due to be sent to next-door Armenia before the railway link was cut off, it said. The railway line runs from Tbilisi, through the Russian-occupied Georgian town of Gori, before splitting in three and running to the Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi and southwest to just short of the Turkish border. Azerbaijan is emerging as an important oil supplier to the West and its fast economic growth depends heavily on revenues from oil exports from the land-locked Caspian Sea. Last week it suspended crude shipments via its key, BP-operated (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan link to Turkey after a fire damaged it. Earlier this week BP closed the pipeline taking crude from Azerbaijan's Caspian port of Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa on the Black Sea, citing fighting between Georgian and Russian troops. A pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk currently remains Azerbaijan's only oil export outlet.

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt...43375520080816

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia digs in 20 miles from Georgian capital

Twenty-four hours after Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, flew into Georgia and demanded the immediate departure of Russian troops, they were on the move yesterday. However, instead of retreating north into South Ossetia, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting to break away from Georgia, the Russians headed south towards the capital, Tbilisi. They came to a halt only 20 miles outside the city. A convoy of two Russian tanks, several armoured personnel carriers mounted with heavy machineguns and Russian flags and a few trucks filled with troops took up positions along the main road from Tbilisi to Gori, Stalin’s home town near the South Ossetian border. The incursion was the deepest into Georgia proper since hostilities began 10 days ago. The troops dug foxholes along a hill only 30 minutes’ drive from the capital, watched by heavily armed Georgian soldiers and police. Men from the rival camps who had been shelling one another a few days earlier suddenly found themselves too close for comfort.

At first, the soot-covered Russian soldiers sat idly on their vehicles, cradling AK47s under the heat of a searing sun. Then a Georgian soldier in US-issued camouflage walked up to them carrying his national flag. Within minutes the two sides were chatting and exchanging cigarettes and water. “It’s beautiful here,” said one Russian officer as he stepped out of a jeep with tinted windows. “This is a place where one should come on holiday, not war.” The bonhomie was misleading, however. Some of the Georgian soldiers were visibly stunned to see a foreign army so deep inside their country. They seemed alarmed that Russian military operations still had not ended four days after President Dmitry Medvedev announced that he had halted them. The previous day Rice had all but forced Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, to sign a ceasefire that sealed his defeat. Yesterday Medvedev added his signature. The document, drafted under the supervision of President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and amended by the Kremlin, allows the Russian military to remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions that Saakashvili had vowed to return to Tbilisi’s control.

Even more damaging for the Georgian leader’s political prospects, it gives the Russians the right to remain several miles inside Georgian territory to await an international peace-keeping force - which could take weeks to assemble. Since the defeated and demoralised Georgian army pulled out of South Ossetia last week, the Russians have secured or destroyed its military installations and arms dumps. By yesterday afternoon they had moved back towards South Ossetia but were still positioned on the outskirts of Gori and in the Black Sea port of Poti, where they have blown up several Georgian coastguard vessels. South Ossetian paramilitaries were also still active in the west of the country where they were reported to be looting Georgian villages. They have been accused of ethnic cleansing, of torching villages and, in several cases, of abducting young women.

The Kremlin gave its strongest signal yet that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be integrated into Russia. Saakashvili’s future as president seemed far less certain. He was vilified by the Kremlin as a US stooge before hostilities broke out. The Russians are now bent on seeing him removed from power. Moscow has dispatched investigators from the prosecutor’s office to South Ossetia to gather testimony that it hopes to use in a criminal case against the president. In Tbilisi many last week thought Saakashvili’s fate was already sealed. While he is credited with turning round Georgia’s economy and modernising the small state, he is expected to face a furious backlash over the failed military action.

Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4547797.ece

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Finally, the West is waking up to a hard new reality...

Russia's big Caucasus win

In less than a week of military operations sparked by Georgia's assault on its breakaway province of South Ossetia, Moscow is emerging as the immediate winner. A still-stunned West is looking for ways to censure Russia for its "disproportionate" incursion into Georgia that has reshaped the strategic game in the Caucasus and beyond to Russia's great advantage. "If the Russians stop hostilities now, they will have redrawn the whole strategic situation in the Caucasus, to the detriment of the Americans," says François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "No one will invest in Georgia, in oil pipelines, in new ventures [there] now.... The game is over.

In the new version of the Great Game, the Russians can cash in." The scope of the "victory" is substantial: Moscow controls territory and leverage, has incapacitated the Georgian military, denied Tblisi its much-hoped-for NATO status, and put the Georgian leader it despises – Mikheil Saakashvili – into a tough position. It has issued a symbolic warning to Ukraine's westward leanings, asserted clout in oil and gas pipeline futures, denied Georgia the possibility of reclaiming breakaway provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and affirmed a deeply Russian set of hard-line political values regarding the disputed front lines of the old cold war. Moreover, by agreeing to halt its military on Tuesday, working with French mediator Nicolas Sarkozy, and only "recommending" that Mr. Saakashvili step down, Moscow is arguing it has reasonably protected its interests and not overthrown a sovereign state.

Moscow also appears to be slam-dunking the cease-fire details. The truce, which Saakashvili blamed Russia for breaking Wednesday, contains a "nonuse of force" clause that forbids Georgia to take action inside South Ossetia, a terrific concession. Nor are international peacekeepers coming soon; Russia gained an "additional security role" that formalizes its peacekeeping role in South Ossetia despite US calls for a more independent force in the region. Russia is pushing for international talks on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which could lead to eventual backing of referendums that would allow those republics to formally separate from Georgia. Both US President George Bush and Saakashvili cited reports of Russian miltary actions "inconsistent" with the truce Wednesday. But inside Russia, the venture is boosting pride and morale – part of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's mission to cast off the humiliation of losing the cold war, and reestablish a perception of Russia as a great power. "At the moment it appears that Russia will have gotten positive benefits from the use of force across its border," says a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Despite Mr. Putin's clear assertion of personal authority in directing the Russian military, at least one Russian analyst describes it as a victory for new president Dmitri Medvedev. "For Medvedev, the outcome [is] a war that's been won. It's his personal victory," says Gleb Pavlovsky, a longtime Kremlin adviser and head of the Effective Policy Foundation in Moscow. But Andrei Kolesnikov, editor of the liberal New Time newsweekly in Moscow, disagrees. "The image of Medvedev is the biggest casualty. We, and the West, were hoping that Russia at last had a young, liberal, reforming leader. Now, after these events, he comes off looking like a tough guy, and there is an impression that he's totally dependent on Putin." On Saturday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel travels to the Russian resort town of Sochi to meet with Medevdev – considered an important diplomatic trip because of Germany's good ties with Russia.

Diplomats and foreign-policy experts say that history may record 8-8-08 as the beginning of consequential changes in the global system, which Moscow suggests has been compromised by the US-led war in Iraq and NATO intervention in Kosovo. It may prefigure a "tri-polar" world, with the US, Russia, and China as heavyweights. Russian tanks and China's Olympic "coming-out party" offer the relevant symbols. For the West, the implications are still being tabulated, and "a lot of work is being done on this," says one Western diplomat. "This moment could well mark the end of an era in Europe during which realpolitik and spheres of influence were supposed to be replaced by new cooperative norms and a country's right to choose its own path," argued former Clinton administration officials for Europe, Richard Holbrooke and Ronald Asmus, in a German Marshall Fund statement. "While no one wants a return to Cold War-style confrontation, Moscow's behavior poses a direct challenge to European and international order."

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs in Moscow, agrees Russia's position has changed. But he finds a different meaning: "A Russia that has the means of force and is ready to use it spells a whole new situation," he says. "All neighboring countries will have to take this into account.... Much depends on how Russia behaves.... If it tries to dictate terms, that will have a very negative effect. But my impression is that Russia was quite restrained, and carefully calculated each move.... It seems likely that NATO will be paralyzed...." Moscow will face downsides, to be sure. Europe and the US are refocusing on ways to censure or isolate Russia. On Wednesday, President Bush, who is dispatching Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to France and then to Tbilisi, stated that the US would begin a "vigorous and ongoing" humanitarian mission to Georgia. He said he expected Russia to "meet its commitment to cease all military activities in Georgia," as well as to withdraw all forces that entered the country in recent days.

Economic sanctions are not being considered seriously; the UN will not act, given Russia's veto on the Security Council. But eastern Europe – the leaders of the Baltic states, Poland, and Ukraine visited Tbilisi this week in support – are searching for punitive measures. Western states concerned about the thwarting of democratic reforms in Eurasia are discussing methods to isolate Moscow. One idea is to cancel or ban the 2014 Winter Olympics in nearby Sochi. Another, mentioned by diplomats and by Svante Cornell, a Caucusus expert, in the New York Times, is to drop or suspend Russia's membership in the Group of Eight (G-8) nations. G-8 status is based on ideals of international norms like transparency, consensus, negotiation, diplomats say. Other ideas include quickly granting NATO status to Macedonia – as a strong signal to Moscow.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0814/p01s01-woeu.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Yerevan Reaffirms Support For CIS

Armenia reaffirmed its “long-term” commitment to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on Wednesday following neighboring Georgia’s decision to leave the Russian-led grouping of 12 former Soviet republics in protest against Russia’s military operations on its soil. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili announced the move during a big rally in Tbilisi on Tuesday. "We are leaving the CIS for good and propose that other countries leave this body run by Russia," he said, again accusing Moscow of unleashing a military aggression against his nation. None of the other CIS countries, including those with uneasy relations with Russia, has headed Saakashvili’s call so far. “The issue of leaving the CIS can not be on Armenia’s foreign policy agenda,” Deputy Foreign Minister Gegham Gharibjanian said in a written answer to a question from the official Russian Itar-Tass news agency. Armenia’s membership in the loose grouping formed during the collapse of the Soviet Union is the result of a “long-term political choice,” he said in comments that underlined his country’s close political, military and economic ties with Russia. Gharibjanian declined to comment on Georgia’s announced pullout from the CIS, reflecting Yerevan’s desire maintain neutrality in the Russian-Georgian military conflict. But another Armenian official called Tbilisi’s move a “mistake.” “[Membership in] the CIS, which Saakashvili has branded a ‘Soviet club,’ gave Georgia good opportunities to settle relations with its northern neighbor,” Avet Adonts, chairman of the Armenian parliament’s committee on European integration, told the Regnum news agency. Adonts also implied that Armenia has no choice but to stick with the Russian-dominated alliance. “Accession to NATO is on Georgia’s foreign policy agenda but is not on Armenia’s,” he said. “This issue will not be considered [by Armenia] at least in the near future, considering the situation in the region and relations with our immediate neighbors.” “We should develop ties with NATO, there is no question about that, but leaving the CIS is a luxury which we can’t afford,” added the lawmaker.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...908A9FC339.ASP

Sarkisian Discusses Georgia Crisis With Russia’s Medvedev

Breaking his silence on the crisis in neighboring Georgia, President Serzh Sarkisian telephoned his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday to discuss the dramatic developments of the past week. “During the phone conversation President Dmitry Medvedev briefed Serzh Sarkisian on the course of negotiations aimed at finding a way out of the situation,” the Armenian leader’s press office said in a statement. “The presidents of the two countries agreed to hold, if need be, additional consultations on further developments.” A separate statement by the Kremlin also gave few details of the phone call. “The heads of state stressed the importance of taking all necessary measures in order to prevent a repeat of what happened and to ensure a quick normalization of the situation in the region,” it said without elaborating. The statement added that the conversation took place “at the imitative of the Armenian side.” Sarkisian’s office did not say if he plans to have a similar discussion with Georgia’s embattled President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose attempt to restore Tbilisi’s control over South Ossetia triggered a harsh Russian retaliation. Moscow has said Saakashvili is personally responsible for the deadly conflict and made clear that it will not negotiate with him. Sarkisian was in Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the 2008 Olympic Games when fighting in South Ossetia broke out last Thursday. He chose not interrupt his continuing vacation in China, prompting strong criticism from Armenia’s main opposition groups led by former President Levon Ter-Petrosian.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...299C1EF04B.ASP

Armenia Rules Out Support For Russian Strikes On Georgia

Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian assured a senior Georgian diplomat on Tuesday Russia did not and will not use Armenian territory for its ongoing military operations in Georgia condemned by the West. Armenia maintains close defense links with Russia and hosts a Russian military base numbering several thousand soldiers and a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets. The Defense Ministry in Yerevan flatly denied late last week Azerbaijani and Georgian media claims that some of the Russian warplanes involved in bomb raids on Georgia flew in from Armenian military airfields. A ministry spokesman rejected the allegations as an Azerbaijani “provocation” designed to damage Georgian-Armenian relations. He argued that the Russian military is not using MiG-29s in the air strikes. Georgia’s ambassador to Armenia, Revaz Gachechiladze, commented the allegations, not echoed by the Georgian government, at a meeting with Ohanian. A statement by the Defense Ministry quoted Gachechiladze as stating that the Russian military aircraft stationed in Armenia has not been involved in the Russian onslaught. “For his part, S. Ohanian assured the ambassador that Armenia’s territory will not be used as a military launch pad for hostilities against Georgia, expressing hope that ways will be found to normalize the situation in Georgia,” the statement said. Ohanian also offered his sympathy for “innocent victims” of the nearly week-long fighting, it added. The statement claimed that Gachechiladze requested the meeting in order to introduce Georgia’s new military attaché in Yerevan, Colonel Murtaz Gujejiani, to the Armenian defense chief. Armenia is treading carefully on the Russian-Georgian conflict, mindful of the two countries’ importance for its national security. The Armenian Foreign Ministry expressed on Friday serious concern about the outbreak of fighting in South Ossetia but avoided blaming any of the parties for the worst regional crisis since the early 1990s. Official Yerevan has so far not reacted on Russian forces’ subsequent advance deep into Georgian territory, which has been condemned by the United States and other Western powers. The Armenian government also refuted on Tuesday other media reports saying that it allowed a planeload of U.S. military instructors bound for Georgia to land in Yerevan’s Zvartnots international airport. Deputy Foreign Minister Gegham Gharibjanian said special flights to Zvartnots have been carried out only by planes that were sent by some European governments to collect their citizens evacuated from Georgia.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...A153867578.ASP

As Russia shows Georgia its iron hand, a look at the love-hate relationship it shares with Soviet Union’s former ‘republics’ since USSR’s dissolution in 1991:

Armenia

Goodwill between Armenia and Russia has deep historical roots and is sustained by Russia’s recent role as Armenia’s protector. Russia is the ace up Armenia’s sleeve against feared aggression by Turkey, Armenia’s historical enemy, and as a deterrent to a renewal of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed enclave of Nagorny Karabakh. Armenia plays eager host to a few Russian bases and a few thousand Russian troops, who patrol Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran. Virtually the entire Armenian energy sector is under Russian control. The most telling picture of the relationship was a trip by President Robert Kocharyan to the Kremlin, ahead of the February 2003 presidential election, to receive the “blessings” of President Putin.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan and Russia are caught in a bitter dispute over energy and labour migration, among other issues. Baku’s blunt refusal in December 2006 to import Russian gas following its energy giant Gazprom’s decision to hike gas prices for Azerbaijan marked a sharp acceleration in the worsening of relations between the two states.

Belarus

Belarus is closely allied with Moscow and forms a loose union state with Russia. The basis of the union was strengthened in 1997 with the signing of the “Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia”, at which time its name was changed to the Union of Russia and Belarus. Both member states seem to have lost their initial enthusiasm for the Union though, with first Russia and then Belarus restoring customs controls along their common border in 2001. Here too, Gazprom’s decision to hike gas prices has acted a spoiler.

Kazakhstan

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s first official state visit after taking office was to Kazakhstan. It was meant to boost ties between the two cash-rich states. In January-March 2008, trade between Russia and Kazakhstan amounted to $4.13 billion. However, trouble spots remain. Russia has been eager to maintain its influence over energy transit routes in the Caspian region.

Moldova

Moldova, like Georgia, is struggling with its own frozen conflict in the predominantly ethnic-Russian region of Transdniester. Although that separatist conflict is far less volatile than either Abkhazia or Georgia’s second breakaway region of South Ossetia, Russia is considered crucial to any resolution of the Transdniester conflict, and has used its leverage to reel in Moldova’s Western ambitions. Russia is also adamantly refusing to withdraw its troops from the Transdniester region.

Tajikistan

Traditionally Russia’s closest ally in Central Asia. Russia played a major role in ending Tajikistan’s five-year civil war. Russian soldiers were stationed in the country, guarded vital facilities during the war and helped the government maintain power. But the ties between the two have been affected due to Russia’s crackdown on illegal migrants from Tajikistan. Tajikistan’s proximity to Afghanistan has also raised its profile in the West and brought coalition troops to its bases — and this is not likely to go down too well with Russia.

Turkmenistan

Relations between Russia and Turkmenistan have always been complicated. Russia has signed agreements that will help it keep control over Turkmen gas exports. Russia is capable of influencing Turkmenistan if it decides to do so. The Turkmen economy depends heavily on gas exports, and its main pipeline route goes through Russian territory.

Ukraine

Russia strongly opposes any movement of NATO into what the Kremlin calls the former-Soviet space. Ukraine has sought to free itself of Russia’s influence, integrate into the West and join NATO. There have been disputes between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas prices in 2005 and 2008.

Uzbekistan

Russia is by far Uzbekistan’s closest trade partner, with trade turnover totaling roughly $4 billion in 2007. Moscow, in addition, has pledged to invest more than $2 billion in the Uzbek economy in the coming years. Uzbekistan, from Tashkent’s perspective, is in retrograde. Tashkent made a number of provocative steps against Moscow, from granting hydrocarbon contracts to Russian companies’ rivals to shunning Russian officials and making decisions without consultations with the Kremlin. Russia has attempted to offer Tashkent incentives to remain loyal to the Kremlin’s geopolitical agenda.

Source: http://www.indianexpress.com/story/348026.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia moves SS-21 missiles into Georgia: US defense official

Russia has moved short-range SS-21 missile launchers into South Ossetia since fighting there halted, and has yet to give any sign of a significant pullback of its troops from Georgia, US officials said Monday. Instead, there were indications that Russia was adding ground troops and equipment to its force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, strengthening its hold over the breakaway Georgian regions, the officials said. "We are seeing evidence of SS-21 missiles in South Ossetia," a US defense official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The SS-21's 70 to 120 kilometer range (43 to 75 miles) should put them within striking distance of Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, officials said. Later Monday, another US defense official said, "While we are still monitoring the situation and it is probably a little early, we have not seen any significant Russian movement out of Georgia today." The White House would not comment on the status of the Russian forces in the Caucasus country Monday. "But let me be clear: If it rolled in after August 6th, it needs to roll out," said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe. "That would be in keeping with the Russian commitment on withdrawal," he said, as US President George W. Bush spent time on his Texas ranch.

Without confirming that a Russian buildup was underway in the enclaves, a Pentagon spokesman said: "Anything such as that or any other military equipment that was moved in would be in violation of the ceasefire and should be removed immediately." "The only forces that are permitted to remain under the ceasefire agreement are the forces that were in there at the August 6th timeframe" before the conflict erupted, said spokesman Bryan Whitman. In Moscow, a Russian general denied that SS-21s had been deployed in South Ossetia. "There was no need for it," General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said at a briefing for journalists. But the US defense official said several SS-21 launchers and associated equipment entered the enclave after the fighting came to a halt last week. The New York Times, which first reported on the move, said they entered South Ossetia on Friday. "We're seeing them solidify their positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia," said the official, adding that "more troops and more equipment" were evident in the enclaves. The official said at least 10 battalions of Russian troops were in the enclaves and in Georgia, putting the number of Russian troops at close to 15,000.

It was unclear whether the SS-21s which allegedly arrived Friday were the first to enter Georgia. Deputy National Security Advisor Jim Jeffrey said a week ago that President George W. Bush, in Beijing at the time for the Olympic Games, was immediately notified August 8 "when we received news of the first two SS-21 Russian missile launchers into Georgian territory." Bush then immediately met with Russian President Vladimir Putin about it at the Great Hall of the People, Jeffrey said. Russia has launched about two dozen short-range missiles during the course of the conflict, which erupted August 7 with a Georgian military incursion into South Ossetia and escalated with an all-out Russian offensive two days later, a senior US defense official said last week. The SS-21 is the NATO designation for what the Russians call the "9K79-1 Tochka-U," which Nogovitsyn said was "widely used" by Russian forces. A tactical ballistic missile, the SS-21 can carry conventional, chemical or tactical nuclear warheads. US officials have made no suggestion that nuclear armed missiles have been deployed in this conflict.

Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...n9OQBVKp9ofSig