Armenian-Turkish Relations

[platanus]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

I don't understand why does that photo about hocali massacre disturb you a lot ? Is it a fake photo? No! it is real, so why do you want to delete the photo from this forum...why don't you let other armenians see about the hocali massacre? you always insult all turkish nation always swear turkish culture, turkish symbols in your messages, your avatars, you always swear turks in this forum...but when you see that photo, you begin to cry... why? Of course I wouldn't want to show that photo, but some of you are so prejudiced that it became a necessity for me. and I don't insult or blame a whole nation about something...keep on living behind your biases walls, we are happy to live with armenians in anatolia for about 1000 years...

and of course diaspora will always carry on diabolical behaviours, because it is nourished by this hostilty, if this vicious circle weren't, diaspora couldn't live , so I don't surprise at some abject messages of some abject people

[Lucin]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

I just came across this interview with Richard Kirakossian in Armenian, on Armeno-Turkish relations.
He seems to believe that the blockade is a danger to Armenia, but an open border will be beneficial to her…and also thinks that Turkey's EU membership will have a positive impact on Armenia!

[Armenian]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

He seems to believe that the blockade is a danger to Armenia, but an open border will be beneficial to her…and also thinks that Turkey's EU membership will have a positive impact on Armenia!

I was reading that article as well today. In my opinion, I think I have it already outlined somewhere in this thread, the worst thing that can happen to the Armenian nation and its long term prosperity is to open the borders with Turkey and normalize relations with them. Also, as soon as Turkey joins the EU, which will never happen in my opinion, its borders will be cemented and any future attempt at recovering our occupied lands will be that much harder. It is well known that the US wants Turkey in the European Union because the US wants to limit the EU's great geopolitical potential, as well as prolong the life of the only pro-Zionist entity in the region.

Kirakosian is simply parroting what his masters in the US State Department are dictating to him. And we all know that one of the only reasons why the US government wants Turkey to open its borders with Armenia is to force Armenia's future economic dependence on Turkey. Washington DC wants to see Armenia's economic dependence moving away from Moscow and Tehran. The fact of the matter is, Armenia's longest and most practical border for economic trade is the one with Turkey. Theoretically, within a very short time period, Armenia could be economically dependent on Turkey. And once you have big bellied businessmen making money dealing with Turks, forget about any longterm national interests. An impoverished nation of two million landlocked people can not have any impact upon the economic situation of a gargantuan state like Turkey. However, Turkey's economy will have immediate impact upon Armenia, in a destructive way. What's more, once borders are fully and officially open, there is an added risk that impoverished Kurds from the most depressed regions of Anatolia will begin pouring into Armenia as well.

No thank you, keep your stinking borders closed.

REPORT: NO BIG GAINS TO ARMENIA IF TURKEY LIFTS BLOCKADE

By Haroutiun Khachatrian: 8/09/05

A controversial report by an Armenian research and consulting group claims that reopening the Armenian-Turkish border would have a much smaller impact on Armenia’s economy than commonly believed. The report was presented July 13 by the Armenian-European Political Legal Advice Center (AEPLAC), a prominent think tank sponsored by the European Union. It contended that Armenia would see its economy expand by only $20-23 million annually, or just 0.67 percent of its current Gross Domestic Product, if Turkey decided to lift its 12-year blockade of the Armenian border. Over the next five years, Armenia’s GDP would see an additional 2.7 percent increase over the country’s level in 2004.

The gain, the report maintained, would be almost exclusively the result of lower cargo transportation costs associated with the reopening of the Kars-Gyumri railroad that connects the two countries. Currently, Armenian goods can only reach trade partners via Georgia, which charges relatively high cargo tariffs. Transportation costs account for some 25-30 percent of Armenia’s trade costs, according to the report. The report’s findings caught many Armenian academics and journalists by surprise. A widely cited 2000 World Bank study predicted that Armenia would see a 30-percent increase in GDP if both Turkey and Azerbaijan lifted their economic embargos. Since then, the Armenian economy has experienced impressive growth. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many observers and economists believed that lifting the blockade would boost those numbers still higher.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan. At the time, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces were battling for control of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The blockade cause substantial economic hardship in Armenia for much of the 1990s. In early 2004, Turkey reportedly considered re-opening the border, but eventually decided against it. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkish goods -- worth an estimated $40 million per year, according to the National Statistical Service of Armenia -- manage to enter Armenia via third countries. A general belief exists that if the border were re-opened, Armenia would be able to export a comparable amount of goods and services, namely electricity – to its western neighbor.

Many economists have challenged the report’s findings. They note that the analysis contained in the report, which was written by a seven-member team, largely concurs with recent statements made by various government officials, who have downplayed the need for an open Turkish-Armenian border. The daily Azg, for instance, commented on July 7 that the report’s argument provided strong support for Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian’s position that Armenia will not make any political concessions to Turkey in return for the lifting of the border blockade. “If the economic impact of lifting the blockade is negligible, then there is no reason to open the border,” said a recent editorial published by the Russian-language Delovoi Ekspress. “And this is pure politics.”

Others take issue with the report’s statistical analysis. Economist Eduard Agajanov, who served as minister of statistics under former President Levon Ter-Petrosian (1991-1998), charged that the report underestimated the economic impact of reopening the Turkish-Armenian border in order to provide political support for President Robert Kocharian’s administration. “Its purpose is to preserve the current oligarchic economic system in Armenia, which cannot survive if the borders are opened and competition with Turkish goods becomes tougher,” Agajanov said. If Armenia regains access to markets of the Middle East via Turkey, Agajanov argued, it would stimulate a whole range of industries that were active during the Soviet era, when the Middle East and India were major markets.

The AEPLAC authors said they took various factors into account, including the 2000 World Bank study and the potential re-entry of Armenian companies into Middle Eastern markets. Ultimately, however, they decided that Armenian producers do not presently have the resources to meet demand in Turkey and the Middle East for goods, such as electricity and cement. At the same time, the report suggested that reopening the Turkish-Armenian border might stimulate economic growth in eastern regions of Turkey, where GDP per capita is even lower than in Armenia. Although the authors of the AEPLAC report state that it was commissioned by the Armenian government, Trade and Economic Development Minister Karen Chshmaritian has denied that the government had anything to do with the preparation of the document.

At a July 27 press conference, Chshmairtian criticized the AEPLAC estimates as too conservative. “They have not taken into account the effect of mutual penetration of capital from the two countries. Turkey obviously hinders its businessmen from investing in Armenia, and when this ban is eliminated, growth may be highly accelerated,” he stated. To prove the point, Chshmaritian told reporters, the government is conducting its own research into the economic impact of Turkey lifting its border blockade. A report is due out later this year, he said.

Source: http://www.eurasianet.org/department...80905_pr.shtml

[Armenian]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

An excellent interview (in Armenian) with political scientist Dr. Armen Ayvazyan of the Ararat Center for Strategic Research. The prerecorded television interview discusses Armenia's political relations with her neighbors, Armenia being caught in the current crisis between the US and Iran, the dangers Armenia faces with open borders with Turkey, as well as the extreme geostrategic importance of protecting every square inch of Artsakh.

Armen Ayvazyan at the "Express" talk-show
Part-I: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEslN...0E4420&index=0
Part-II: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo6To...0E4420&index=1
Part-III: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zlmys...0E4420&index=2

Dr. Armen Ayvazyan's website (in Armenian, English and Russian): http://www.hayq.org/index.php?p=1&l=arm
Ararat Center for Strategic Research:

http://www.ararat-center.org/index.php?p=1&l=arm

[melikianAvak]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations was going worse by Armenians' Slanders

Platus is a Turkish man as like me! But you always ban Turks from here! Why do you try to debate with him in respect! That thread is about"Armenian-Turkish relations" We can converse here in democratic frame wth esteem! If we go on about our bad ideas,Turkish-Armenian relations won't go better,will go?

I can't speak for all the Armenians here, but I will tell you why I won't debate.

1. The problems we have with the Turks from Turkey are not debatable.
We accuse the country of Turkey of Genocide. Most of us have lost family and friends. I myself am old enough to have lost grand parents, aunts, uncles and cousins.

2. Most Turks deny this and accuse us of genocide. This not only angers us but shows us the highest form of disrespect. How can I or we even think about debating something that the world knows is true and Turkey lies about it and most Turks either believe their government straight out or are ignorant of what the Turks have done to many people.

3. Turks have gone beyond the human and civilized peoples rules of conduct in dealing with other ethnic groups.

4. Murder, Rape, killing of innocents, destruction of ethnic groups.

5. The worst part in my opinion is to lie or believe in lies. I don't think many of you can allow your selves to admit the truth about what your people have done, the reason for this is that it would be saying that many of your forefathers were monsters.

6. You don't want to admit your people stole land and murdered people. If you did the world may force you to return what you stole.

If this does not clear up some of the reasons why we can not debate, you will never understand and we will never be friends with the sons and daughters that committed genocide of our people more then once.

The first thing the people of Turkey should do is change the name of the country to Anatolia, call them selves Anatolians. Have true freedom of speech. Allow any person to adopt any religion he/she wishes or to change to any religion they wish.

We do not hate because we are a hateful people, we hate because of what was done to us as a people.

If you made some positive changes, the world would forgive and embrace you.

I am Avak ---an Armenian who does not and can not live in the land of his forefathers. One day that will change, if not in my life time then in the life time of my progeny.

[Artsakh]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

I am not opposed to an open border with the Turks if there are no pre-conditions dictated by the Turks, which is official yerevans position on the matter.

You don't have to be a nuclear scientist or brain surgeon to comprehend the simple fact that Turkey has not imposed its blockade on Armenia to be nice or to help Armenia out economically. Obviously, there are big gains for Armenia and its population-economically will improve the standard of living for the people of armenia, and most important of all, this will result in increase in Armenian population. Any prosperous economy thrives on trade. Furthermore, an open border with Turkey without preconditions would be a diplomatic slap on Azerbaijan's face-which also has imposed a blockade on Armenia, also not because it wants to help armenia out.

so, to make a long story short, by engaging in trade with Turkey does not mean we are giving up any political issues we have with them. but what it does mean is that the material condition of armenias will improve. The most important thing right now is for Armenias population to increase dramatically. Once it increases, it will automatically need to expand. We've got lands we need to populate on the liberated territories in the surrounding regions outside karabakh. And, as i've stated already, kars and ardahan are legally armenian land. However, only a strong armenia can demand them back. And when you've got a increasing population--you've got reason to demand them back. But unfortunately today, many families are leaving, patriots who spilled blood in karabakh are forced to go to russia to find jobs. these are the serious issues we face today, the immediate issues.

this is just my opinion.

[Armenian]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

I am not opposed to an open border with the Turks if there are no pre-conditions dictated by the Turks, which is official yerevans position on the matter.

Artsakh, let's play a game so that you can better understand what I and many others, including high officials in the ARF , are saying.

Let's say you are a big time businessman in Armenia with a lot of connections with government officials in Yerevan. If you can get the merchandise that which you were previously getting from Russia, the EU and Iran cheaper from Turkey - where would you get it from? As a businessman your answer should be Turkey, no? In the future if any government policy comes up that might jeopardize your business you will no doubt use your government connections to smooth things over so that your business connections wont be ruined. Now multiply your situation with thousands of other businessmen smaller then you and larger than you - and what you will get is total dependence on the Turkish economy. Political Science 101 tells us that you can not be dependent upon the economy of a nation that you perceive to be your enemy, a nation that does not want to see you prosper. In short: When you attempt to make money from an enemy that is much bigger than you, in this case Turkey, its very difficult to set your term and its very difficult to say no to them.

Why does Turkey not open their borders? In my opinion, the reasons are as follows: Due to severe Azeri pressure; to save face domestically; due to the fear that opening borders may only serve to help the domestically depressed regions of Kurdish populated eastern Anatolia; and perhaps a wish/plan to destroy Armenia economically which thus far has failed but would succeed if Iran is attacked and if Georgia gains in strength thereby weakening Russia's presence in the region. So, Turkey and Azerbaijan may be waiting for Washington DC's plans for the region to come to fruition.

Artsakh, think about what you are saying. Better yet, don't get involved in geopolitics, just listen to the experts about the matter. Start by listening to what Armen Ayvazyan is saying about the topic.

[Artsakh]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

The Turks and Azeris have failed miserably in trying to hurt Armenia's economy with their blockade. Actually, the Armenian economy has done quite remarkably notwithstanding the dual blockades.

But, what I'm trying to say is that, since we're technically at war with Azerbaboonistan at the present moment, its would seriously weaken Azerbaijan's position to loose the support of its number 1 ally (being Turkey) and engage in trade with its enemy (Armenia).

It doesn't have to be a long term thing. For example, after reaping some immediate benefits and hurting Azerbaijans feelings, armenia could then close the border once again and insist on its reopening on the condition of turkeys recognition of the genocide.

in other words, we are not becoming dependant upon turkey, but we are using the enemy for our own good.

[Armenian]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

The Turks and Azeris have failed miserably in trying to hurt Armenia's economy with their blockade. Actually, the Armenian economy has done quite remarkably notwithstanding the dual blockades.

Then let's not tamper with it and allow it to blossom.

Incidentally, you can only thank the current administration in Yerevan and its closeness with the Russian Federation for Armenia's current economic growth. Armenia's only option today is to place its economic and political emphasis upon relations with the Russian Federation and Iran. We don't need cheep goods via Turkey we need cheep goods via a Georgia that is subjugated by Russia.

But, what I'm trying to say is that, since we're technically at war with Azerbaboonistan at the present moment, its would seriously weaken Azerbaijan's position to loose the support of its number 1 ally (being Turkey) and engage in trade with its enemy (Armenia).

Sorry Artsakh, but this comment of yours was a bit childish. Besides, with Turkey's economic blockade of Armenia we are "technically" at war with Turkey as well. And theoretically, Turkey can symbolically open the borders with Armenia and still support Azerbaijan militarily, politically and economically against us.

So, what's your point?

It doesn't have to be a long term thing. For example, after reaping some immediate benefits and hurting Azerbaijans feelings, armenia could then close the border once again and insist on its reopening on the condition of turkeys recognition of the genocide.

What do you mean it doesn't have to be longterm? What are you talking about here, a candy shop opening and closing at the whim of the owner? Do things work in this manner in the real world? Do you have any idea what international economic trade entails? Do you have any idea what repercussions your proposal could have? Have you really given this topic any serious consideration? Besides, do you really think that Armenians are going to close the border when open border was "benefiting" them financially? Reality is, Armenian businessmen are going to seek further benefits in Turkey for themselves at the expense of Armenia's longterm national interests. Thus, the real danger of opening borders with them is precisely the prospects of having financial "benefits" from it.

in other words, we are not becoming dependant upon turkey, but we are using the enemy for our own good.

You must be kidding, Artsakh. This is serious geopolitics, not make belief fantasy. I repeat again: The worst thing that can happen to Armenia's longterm prosperity and geostrategic interests is opening of borders and normalization of relations with Turkey.

Artsakh, you are beginning to sound like a teenager. Just stick to attacking the ARF, you are much better at that.

[Lucin]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

An impoverished nation of two million landlocked people can not have any impact upon the economic situation of a gargantuan state like Turkey. However, Turkey's economy will have immediate impact upon Armenia, in a destructive way. What's more, once borders are fully and officially open, there is an added risk that impoverished Kurds from the most depressed regions of Anatolia will begin pouring into Armenia as well.

No thank you, keep your stinking borders closed.

The borders closed, there is already a mess going on in Istanbul and Antalia…and I don't want to even think about how the situation would be with borders open…
What's more if we open the borders, and somehow recognize it, how can we have territorial claims?? It could definitely harm any plans for a possible land restitution in the future.... LOL, probably I'm going too far.