Armenian-Turkish Relations

[Federate]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

So let's say Turkey's and Azerbaijan's relations are strained. As the Azeri official pointed out in the above article I posted, this will drive the Azeris to mother Russia's arms. I do not doubt that Russia would be much more interested in a relationship with Azerbaijan before one with Armenia. Does this mean we now have "normalised" relations with Turkey, no/less than normal relations with Azerbaijan and allied with Russia who is now a couple with Azerbaijan who is doing it favours in the forms of pipelines? In this scenario, do we win?

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

So let's say Turkey's and Azerbaijan's relations are strained. As the Azeri official pointed out in the above article I posted, this will drive the Azeris to mother Russia's arms. I do not doubt that Russia would be much more interested in a relationship with Azerbaijan before one with Armenia. Does this mean we now have "normalised" relations with Turkey, no/less than normal relations with Azerbaijan and allied with Russia who is now a couple with Azerbaijan who is doing it favours in the forms of pipelines? In this scenario, do we win?

That scenerio takes Turckey out of the picture completely and hurts it economicaly(this alone would be considered a win by many here). Armenia will indeed win in this scenerio also Fed because under Russias control the Azeris cannot go to war without its ok and thus Armenia is saved from the eastern threat. It is important to remember that Russia wants the turckish wedge as much as we do thus no matter what the azeri situation turns out being they will still want Armenia there. Also important to remember is the fact that oil is not the only thing that was flowing through Georgia which now needs a new route. Even in this scenerio Armenia can still benefit greatly by serving as a transport rout not for oil this time but for everything else that needs to go to asia, europe, middleeast. I personaly think this is Russias plan B but i very much dought this will happen because the usa and europe prefer the oil not to go through russia itself. Plan A is more lucrative for all involved parties imcluding russia so i think the chance of plan B is pretty slim. Why would Russia prefer plan a to plan b you say? Because it would give russia greater control over turckey by controling the flow of oil through Armenia. While option B weakens turckey in general it is not as lucrative for russia because it doesnt want its bigest trading partnet to go broke instead it wants to have its grasp around its throat(optionA) so it can make it do whatever it wants instead. Armenia is in a good position here regardless but option A is the better option for all involved, including Armenia.

[Davo88]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

The answer of your question is in the paragraph that you wrote, we are clearly disadvantaged in this scenario. For instance, in case of normal Turkey-Armenia and Turkey-Azerbaijan relations, Turkey would favour their Azerbaijani brothers any time in case of a war. In the long-term, if Turkish influence spreads in Armenia, I believe that it will be used against us in case of another Azeri-Armenian war and I am sure that our enemies know it. So in this scenario both Russia and Turkey would be supportive of Azerbaijan.

[Army]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

The answer of your question is in the paragraph that you wrote, we are clearly disadvantaged in this scenario. For instance, in case of normal Turkey-Armenia and Turkey-Azerbaijan relations, Turkey would favour their Azerbaijani brothers any time in case of a war. In the long-term, if Turkish influence spreads in Armenia, I believe that it will be used against us in case of another Azeri-Armenian war and I am sure that our enemies know it. So in this scenario both Russia and Turkey would be supportive of Azerbaijan.

Nobody would let a war against a country that is influenced by him. This would rasp both side's will to war again. And at the end, there would be a diplomatic solution. That way, both sides would lose and both side would win.

[Davo88]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Hey, we're talking about Turkey here, not the peacefullest of countries. Only a couple of days ago they announced that they would support Azerbaijan's territorial integrity (NKR) and sympathized with the Azeris' dreams of "liberating" Սիւնիք.

[Army]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

they announced that they would support Azerbaijan's territorial integrity (NKR)

Well, is not that what UN says.

[Davo88]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Perhaps, but Turkey is more vocal and demanding about it. After all, wasn't it the reason why it closed the border in 1993?

[Army]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Perhaps, but Turkey is more vocal and demanding about it. After all, wasn't it the reason why it closed the border in 1993?

Seems like it is.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

Well, is not that what UN says.

Well lets not forget that only muslim countries voted for the resolution, the OSCE minsk group (France, Russia, US), Armenia, India, Vanuatu voted against it and over 100 countries abstained so i wouldnt call that a solid argument that UN accepts azerbaijans territorial integrity.
If u want to talk about territorial integrity you can look at CIA documents which recognize Artsakh as part of Armenia and the European Parliament documents which also recognize Artsakh as part of Armenia. Both talk about how historically Artsakh is a part of Armenia only to be annexed by stalin to azerbaijan.

[Armanen]

Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations

That scenerio takes Turckey out of the picture completely and hurts it economicaly(this alone would be considered a win by many here). Armenia will indeed win in this scenerio also Fed because under Russias control the Azeris cannot go to war without its ok and thus Armenia is saved from the eastern threat. It is important to remember that Russia wants the turckish wedge as much as we do thus no matter what the azeri situation turns out being they will still want Armenia there. Also important to remember is the fact that oil is not the only thing that was flowing through Georgia which now needs a new route. Even in this scenerio Armenia can still benefit greatly by serving as a transport rout not for oil this time but for everything else that needs to go to asia, europe, middleeast. I personaly think this is Russias plan B but i very much dought this will happen because the usa and europe prefer the oil not to go through russia itself. Plan A is more lucrative for all involved parties imcluding russia so i think the chance of plan B is pretty slim. Why would Russia prefer plan a to plan b you say? Because it would give russia greater control over turckey by controling the flow of oil through Armenia. While option B weakens turckey in general it is not as lucrative for russia because it doesnt want its bigest trading partnet to go broke instead it wants to have its grasp around its throat(optionA) so it can make it do whatever it wants instead. Armenia is in a good position here regardless but option A is the better option for all involved, including Armenia.

To add a bit to what Haykakan said.

The union between Russia and Belarus is not likely to happen anytime soon, the two nations are not very eager to become a true union. The most important aspect of the union is the military one, which is essentially done already as both are CSTO members and share much military intelligence in regards to the European front.

The chances of the azeris joining the Union is about as likely as the u.s. being allowed to join the SCO.

The likely outcome is that azerbaijan will agree to give up Artsakh and a land corridor linking Artsakh with Armenia, in return Armenia will give up 5 of the 7 regions around the NKAO. This may anger some but if it will ensure that Armenia has open borders, becomes a regional transit hub, and doesn't endanger the people of Armenia and Artsakh than it is a good trade off.

However, it is too soon to really be talking about any of this, afterall, there is a chance the protocols will not be ratified by either parliament.