Elections in Armenia

[Artsakh]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Police Set To Prosecute ‘Delinquent’ Ter-Petrosian Supporters

By Astghik Bedevian

The Armenian police launched criminal proceedings on Tuesday against supporters of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian who drove through the streets of Yerevan on Monday in a motorcade of more than a hundred cars led by the opposition presidential candidate.

The collective ride, not sanctioned by municipal authorities, lasted for more than an hour and ended in a rally in the city’s northern Avan suburb. It was aimed at drumming up popular support for Ter-Petrosian and possibly exerting psychological pressure on the government.

A statement by the police said that the motorcade disrupted traffic in the city center and that participants of the car parade defied orders by road police officers and threatened to use force against them. It said a criminal case has been opened under a corresponding article of the Armenian Criminal Code.

The police did not immediately charge any of the Ter-Petrosian campaigners. Instead, it reportedly impounded cars belonging to some of the ex-president’s close associates, including the chairmen of the former ruling Armenian Pan-National Movement and the radical opposition Hanrapetutyun party.

Also, law-enforcement authorities announced late Monday the launch of a separate criminal investigation into a violent incident that marred Ter-Petrosian’s weekend campaign rally in the central town of Talin. Several Ter-Petrosian loyalists reportedly threw punches at a man who heckled the ex-president as the latter was about to address local residents. According to media reports, the man, identified as Sarkis Karapetian, was assaulted after telling Ter-Petrosian that “the people of Talin are not with you.”

The Office of the Prosecutor-General identified three alleged attackers of Karapetian, among them a local leader of Hanrapetutyun, but would not say if any of them have already been formally charged with assault.

Ter-Petrosian’s election campaign headquarters was quick to condemn both criminal cases. “These actions are aimed at stemming Levon Ter-Petrosian’s triumph in the presidential elections and taking the pre-election situation out of control,” it said in a statement. “We warn Armenia’s kleptocratic authorities that they will bear full responsibility for unpredictable consequences of these actions.”

The statement described the violent incident in Talin as a government “provocation.” It also claimed that the police have “effectively paralyzed” the Ter-Petrosian campaign in Talin by summoning its activists for questioning en masse.

Also reacting to the Talin incident were two nationalist activists controversially imprisoned by the Armenian authorities. Like Karapetian, Zhirayr Sefilian and Vartan Malkhasian are veterans of the 1992-1994 war in Karabakh. In a joint statement from their prison, they alleged that the attack victim is a government agent who had been paid by Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian to spy on war veterans unhappy with Armenia’s leadership.

Sefilian and Malkhasian, who support Ter-Petrosian’s presidential bid, at the same time urged the ex-president’s loyalists to “beware such provocations and be more tolerant in the future.”

In a related development, the police also commented on reports that they forcibly closed Ter-Petrosian’s sole campaign office in the southeastern town of Kapan on Monday. The office head, Roman Navasardian, told RFE/RL that he and his comrades were forced out of the premises after their owner unexpectedly decided to terminate their lease.

A police statement said that law-enforcement officers in Kapan simply intervened in a bust-up between the owner, identified as “citizen A.,” and individuals who occupied his property “by fraudulent means.”

(Photolur photo: Ter-Petrosian's limousine leads the motorcade during the controversial action.)

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2008/01/5dc497fa-96ee-4dab-a52e-7ec194fa9cbc.asp

[Artsakh]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Nationalist Group Endorses Ter-Petrosian

By Ruzanna Stepanian

A hard-line pressure group opposed to any Armenian territorial concessions to Azerbaijan officially endorsed former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s presidential candidacy on Tuesday despite his conciliatory views on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The Alliance of Armenian Volunteers (HKH), largely made up of veterans of the Karabakh war, said Ter-Petrosian is the only opposition leader capable of unseating the country’s “monstrous” leadership and restoring “constitutional order.” “He has the courage to tell the truth, a convincing resolve and wisdom,” it said in a statement.

Armen Yeghian, one of the nine signatories of the statement, said that Ter-Petrosian is restoring Armenians’ faith in democratic change. “The people hope that with Levon Ter-Petrosian at the helm, the opposition will manage to prevent fraud and prevent the authorities from reproducing themselves by illegal and disgraceful means,” he told a news conference.

“If Levon Ter-Petrosian has decided to take part in the game seriously and honestly, having the people by his side, he will definitely succeed,” said Yeghian. “The authorities won’t, no matter how much they use their resources.”

The development followed individual endorsements of Ter-Petrosian’s presidential bid made by the HKH’s two top leaders controversially jailed by the authorities. Zhirayr Sefilian and Vartan Malkhasian were arrested and charged with plotting a coup d’etat in December 2005 just days after holding the founding conference of the HKH. The group’s main stated aim is to prevent the return of any of the Armenian-controlled lands in Azerbaijan proper surrounding Karabakh.

Last July, a Yerevan court convicted Malkhasian of publicly calling for a violent overthrow of Armenia’s government and sentenced him to two years in prison. Sefilian, who is a Lebanese citizen, was cleared of the coup charge but still handed a 18-month jail term under another article of the Armenian Criminal Code that deals with illegal arms possession. Both men have denied the charges as politically motivated.

In its statement, the HKH admitted having “certain differences” with Ter-Petrosian on the Karabakh issue. But it said it is confident that Ter-Petrosian will not rush to accept a compromise solution to the dispute if he returns to power.

“Everyone, including Ter-Petrosian, realizes that a prompt resolution of the Artsakh problem is not timely and possible today,” claimed Yeghian. “We will continue to adhere to our radical position on the liberated territories.”

Ever since ending his nearly decade-long silence last September Ter-Petrosian has repeatedly said he continues to believe that Armenia’s sustainable development is impossible without a compromise peace deal with Azerbaijan and accused the current Armenian leaders of dragging out the conflict’s resolution.

President Robert Kocharian, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and their allies have responded to his statements with renewed allegations that the ex-president wants to “surrender” Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

Sefilian, who had commanded an army battalion during the war with Azerbaijan, dismissed such claims in a November 20 statement from his prison. He said Ter-Petrosian is seeking to win back the Armenian presidency in order to “restore our statehood and constitutional order,” rather than make peace with Azerbaijan.

(Photolur photo: Malkhasian, center, and Sefilian, right, pictured during their trial.)

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2008/01/6009eb63-cc26-4050-a589-02768ba754c6.asp

[Artsakh]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Jailed Nationalist Defends Ter-Petrosian On Karabakh

By Emil Danielyan

Former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s conciliatory discourse on Nagorno-Karabakh prompted on Thursday unlikely support from a jailed nationalist activist and government critic opposed to Armenian territorial concessions to Azerbaijan.

Zhirayr Sefilian, a prominent veteran of the war in Karabakh, condemned as “slander” government allegations that Ter-Petrosian is ready to place the Armenian-populated territory back under Azerbaijani rule. In a statement released from his prison, Sefilian said although he has “serious disagreements” with Ter-Petrosian on the issue, he believes that the latter “would not rush to resolve the conflict” in the event of his victory in the February 19 presidential election.

“I am categorically against the notion that Levon is a president who would surrender Artsakh (Karabakh),” he said. “True, we have serious disagreements with him on the Artsakh issue, the most important of them being our refusal to see any document envisaging territorial concessions on the negotiation table.”

“At the same time I am convinced that deep down, as Armenian people, Levon Ter-Petrosian and his allies are also against conceding territories, but because they are more pragmatic than us, they believe that the conflict can not be resolved without concessions,” he added.

Ending his nearly decade-long silence with a series of recent speeches, Ter-Petrosian has said he continues to believe that Armenia’s sustainable development is impossible without a compromise peace deal with Azerbaijan and accused the current Armenian leaders of dragging out the conflict’s resolution. He has said at the same time that they are now ready to accept the kind of a peace plan which he advocated before his resignation in 1998 and which they rejected as “defeatist.”

President Robert Kocharian, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and their allies have responded to these statements with renewed allegations that the ex-president wants to “surrender” Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

Sefilian, who is regarded as a political prisoner by his supporters and many other opposition figures, denied such claims, pointing to Ter-Petrosian’s September 21 remark that the situation is now so unfavorable for the Armenian side that he does not know what should be done about it. “That is, Levon Ter-Petrosian hinted that he would not rush to solve the problem,” claimed the Lebanese citizen of Armenian descent.

The main aim of Ter-Petrosian’s bid to return to power, continued Sefilian, is to “restore our statehood and constitutional order,” rather than make peace with Azerbaijan. “Therefore, supporting his return to power does not mean being in favor of ceding the liberated territories,” he said.

Sefilian and another war veteran, Vartan Malkhasian, were arrested in December last year just days after founding a new pressure group opposed to Armenian troop withdrawal from any of the occupied Azerbaijani territories around Karabakh. They both were charged with plotting a violent overthrow of the government. Only Malkhasian was convicted of the coup charge by a Yerevan district court last July. He was sentenced to two years in prison.

Sefilian was handed a 18-month jail term under another article of the Criminal Code that deals with illegal arms possession.

(Photolur photo: Zhirayr Sefilian.)

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2007/12/fa6172c6-d380-4f40-be28-8d08a5541f77.asp

[Artsakh]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

“LEVON IS NOT THE PRESIDENT TO HAND OVER ARTSAKH”

20 december 2007

JIRAIR SEFILYAN'S STATEMENT

Lragir
Dec 20 2007
Armenia

On December 20 the coordinator of the Civil Initiative for the Defense of the Liberated Territories Jirair Sefilyan released a statement on the question whether Levon Ter-Petrosyan will return Artsakh if he
is elected president.

"After the September 21 address of the first president of Armenia the representatives of the Serge-Kocharyan regime and their propaganda machine lost their nerve and attacked Levon Ter-Petrosyan with
different accusations, including the accusation that he wants to sell Karabakh or he wants to do it after becoming president again. Over this time Levon Ter-Petrosyan's supporters have answered these accusations, however, I consider it as my duty to touch upon it," runs the statement by Jirair Sefilyan.

Jirair Sefilyan thinks in 1998 no situation had occurred which would compel Levon Ter-Petrosyan to resign for the settlement of the Artsakh issue. "I am sure that he had other reasons to resign, and I think
it is not expedient to mention those reasons now," Jirair Sefilyan says. He thinks each of the proposals on settlement offered since 1998 has been a step toward regress.

"However, for whatever reason, the devotees of the present regime have never considered them as defensive. On the upcoming days we will release the statements, ideas, outlook of this regime and the
pro-regime forces on the Artsakh issues since October 27, 1999. The purpose is one: to remind our people who are accusing Levon, who unlike them had the good sense and courage to reveal the content of the confidential talks. These ones put on a mask of a pseudo-nationalist and obeyed the recommendations of the Minsk Group that "the presidents are ready for peace, the publics are not". To bring this idea into being, the Armenian government was instructed to prepare people to accept these difficult concessions. The anti-Armenian regime which assumed the duty to "process" people, led by the minister of defense Serjik Sargsyan, used the dependence of political forces, the military, the intelligentsia and others to make them approve the line of territorial concessions," Jirair Sefilyan says.

According to him, unlike the present government, Levon Ter-Petrosyan has never trespassed on the political debate on Artsakh, and in this debate he has always referred to the government and people of
Artsakh. "Under Kocharyan Artsakh left the process, and two people started making decisions. If under Levon there was special (but not enough) focus on the program of resettlement of the Liberated
territories, and privileges to migrants, thanks to which their number grew day by day, these ones did the opposite thing, eliminated privileges, put a person in charge of it who can hardly be referred to as human, and in a short period of time the number of migrants halved," says Jirair Sefilyan in his statement.

He says although Levon Ter-Petrosyan does not deny his past stance on the issue of Artsakh, his statement that he does not know the way out of this deadlock with Azerbaijan's stance becoming tougher is evidence that Levon Ter-Petrosyan will not hurry with the settlement.

Meanwhile, according to Sefilyan, Serge Sargsyan stated in Moscow that Armenia is ready to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, besides he stated that Levon Ter-Petrosyan comes to return Karabakh.

"I am against the idea that Levon the president will return Artsakh.

It is not true. Yes, we disagree on the issue of Artsakh, and the main disagreement is that we reject any document on the table of the talks which include territorial concessions. At the same time, I believe
that Levon Ter-Petrosyan and his supporters, as Armenians, are also against returning territories, but unlike us, they are pragmatic activists and believe that the problem cannot be solved without a
compromise. Therefore, if they are offered a way out which will enable the implementation of programs for stability in the region (railroad and transport), we think they will agree to that option. In answer to
the question if there is another option, we say yes. After removing this anti-Armenian regime we will reveal it, which we believe people will approve. Unfortunately, we cannot call this public administration a state. I am sure that if Levon comes to power, he will not consider the settlement of the issue of Artsakh as a priority. He is coming to restore statehood and constitutional order. And to be for his return is not to be for returning the liberated territories. I repeat because this issue is not involved in the program of "cleaning the Augean stables". Therefore, the rumors and gossips that he is coming to return Artsakh are clear slander and a result of ignorance," runs the statement by Jirair Sefilyan.

In the end Jirair Sefilyan says no Armenian government will agree to return the land liberated at the expense of lives of Armenians, and if it happens, it will get people rise against that government.

[freakyfreaky]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Ter-Petrossian seeks court relief postponing elections based on unfair campaign tactics, including propaganda, causing "insurmountable obstacles".

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav020808.shtml

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/02/e4e38cfb-6ea7-41a4-894d-c9fe699686f9.html

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2008/02/5F0DEA92-071E-4D43-B395-EA9FA3EFD338.ASP

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=24806

[Artsakh]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Zhirayr Sefilian, coordinator of "Union of Armenian Volunteers," "Defense of Liberated Territories" NGOs

http://www.azadakrum.org/english/index.html

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

An intersting commentary from a Kurdish source about Levon Ter Petrosian and Armenian politics:

TER-PETROSSIAN'S REAL POLITIK!

INFO-TÜRK, No 218, January-February 1995

The daily Milliyet of February 3, 1995, reported that Armenian President Ter-Petrossian had a meeting with the neo-fascist Turkish leader Alparslan Türkes for the normalisation of the relations between Turkey and Armenia. Two days later, MHP chairman Türkes confirmed that he met with Ter-Petrossian in 1993 following a request by the Armenian lobby in France. Indicating that he had informed the prime minister and foreign minister of Turkey at the time that a meeting was planned between himself and Ter-Petrossian, Türkes said that the Turkish ambassador and counsellor were also at the meeting which was aimed at trying to see if the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be stopped. He added that another aim of the meeting was to explore the possibilities for developing friendly ties between Armenia and Turkey. The daily Cumhuriyet of February 5 reported that a second meeting between Türkes and Ter-Petrossian was held in 1994 in Germany. Since Türkes is known as one of the most ardent enemies of Armenians who is still using the word "Armenian" as an insult against left-wing or Kurdish activists, this meeting caused a big confusion as well in Armenia as in Armenian Diaspora.

Besides, Türkes had played an important role in the rising ultra-nationalist and anti-Armenian currents in Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Türkes' many notorious "Grey Wolves" had been placed by the former President Elcibey to key posts in Azerbaijan administrative and military establishment. According to the press reports, as the Armenian Diaspora is preparing spectacular commemorations on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the genocide of which were victims more than 1.5 millions Armenians during the First World War, Ter-Petrossian seems ready to set aside the genocide for normalising relations with Turkey. Although similar commemoration demonstrations are being prepared in Yerevan, Ter-Petrossian's private adviser Jirair Libaridian reportedly said that he hoped the "historical reality" of genocide would not prevent the improvement of bilateral ties.

In the meantime, the Armenian newspaper Gamk of February 27 reported that Armenian Education Minister Achot Bleyan ordered announced the interdiction of the education on Armenian genocide in the nursery, primary and secondary schools of Armenia. This gesture and the closure of the nationalist Dashnak Party in Armenia is considered by Ankara as another sign of Ter-Petrossian's will to normalise relations with Turkey. Recently, Libaridian had a series of talks with Turkish officials in Ankara on February 24-25. The Turkish side told Libaridian that to defuse tension in Yerevan's ties with Ankara, Armenians should pull out from the occupied Azeri lands — excluding the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh — and drop their rejection of Turkish participation in a planned peace-keeping force for Karabakh. During the talks, two sides also discussed "potential economic cooperation, including border trade and the passage of Azeri oil pipeline to Turkey through Armenian territory" in the event of normalized bilateral ties."

Source: http://www.info-turk.be/218.E.htm

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

An excellent commentary from a Russian source about Levon Ter Petrosian and the up-coming elections in Armenia. Let's see if this will help some of the mentally retarded idiots in our community take their heads out of their asses:

Levon Ter-Petrosian as a Tool of Armenia’s Destabilisation

A long awaited happening, the interest to which had been fanned for months, took place in Armenia. On October 26, 2007 former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, currently an actual leader of Armenian National Movement (ANM), the former ruling party made a 90-minute speech in Theatre Square in Yerevan. Despite quite a few logical discrepancies, pseudo-historic excursions, dubious allusions and populist declarations he declared his intention to run for presidency in February of 2008. Many people attended the meeting, but those who are still sincerely fond of the former president were evidently in the minority. There were many people who were there out of sheer curiosity and those who are always displeased with any acting authority.

On the eve of the meeting radical opposition from the pro-Western movement “Alternative” provoked clashes with police, which were immediately taken advantage of for the stirring up the situation, given that usually the authorities do not prevent their opposition from holding meetings, asking them to observe the law and order. Some Armenian media characterise the tactics used by the ex-president and his supporters as the willingness “to aggravate the internal situation, forcing the authorities to make another mistake at any cost.” Unsanctioned meetings, office capture raids and blocking the bodies of state, stirring up of domestic disorder and interference in the work of election commissions can be disguised as “spontaneous” people’s protest. A dramatic rise of foodstuffs prices can stimulate the spreading of rumours about “inevitable” political and socio-economic upheavals. This tactic has been tested many times in the countries where the “colour” coups were organised; in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine and Kirghizia. An attempt of a coup undertaken by the radical opposition in Yerevan in 2004 (organised, along with others by Aram Sarkisian and Stepan Demirchian, who were seen together with Ter-Petrosian October 26) met with hard but legally correct suppression. Another Western project in the republic was Artur Bagdasarian, who finally discredited himself during the May 2008 parliamentary elections. What are we to expect this time?

The tonality of many statements of “the soft intellectual” Ter-Petrosian proves that the new election campaign will be quite acute. Again, as in the late 1980s, when Ter-Petrosian was desperate about gaining power, the wedge of a slogan “Struggle, struggle till the end!” has been forced in. But the fact that the “mafia-type clan regime” is criticised by none other than the genuine architect of this regime, is amusing. Ter-Petrosian’s call for bringing order to the nation looks especially mocking, given that the destruction of Armenia’s economy and key elements of its infrastructure (except for, maybe, the young national army) during his stint was systemic and targeted. The rampage of arbitrariness was written off as inevitable aftermath of hostilities and Azerbaijanian blockade, which in particular were to deepen the “anti-Karabakhs” sentiment in the Armenian society. Using the Karabakh issue as a springing board for his leap to power, all his years as president Ter-Petrosian was obstinately pushing through his idea of making Karabakh prisoner of Azerbaijan (under the guise of “autonomy”), calling that “realism”. However the fact that head of the Armenian state promised the earth to Ankara, reassuring the nation that a day will come when Turkey would unlock the frontier while Karabakh Armenians were on the brink of a physical destruction, spoke about helplessness and incompetence rather than the pursuance of foreign policies that could meet the nation’s interests…

The 1996 presidential elections were openly falsified to give the victory to Ter-Petrosian; opposition was suppressed never stopping of using tanks. In 1997, when the set off between Ter-Petrosian on the one hand and other members of the political and military establishment on the other became evident, it was exactly the presidential side that resorted to a political combination aimed at the removal of the president’s opponents from the bodies of power. Attempts to provoke a political crisis by way of a series of acts of terror leading the way to a dismissal of prime-minister (Robert Kocharian) or the Minister of Interior and Security (Serge Sarkisian) met with the hard public opposition of Defence Minister Vazgen Sarkisian. And in 1999, shortly before his tragic death, speaking at parliament prime-minister Vazgen Sarkisian said to the nation that the energy crisis was not a result of the Karabakh war. To quote the documents of the interim parliamentary committee that investigated abuse of power at the time: “2058 railway cars with 115,000 tonnes of fuel oil shipped to the Razdan and Yerevan power stations in 1992 were not registered, as well as 1184 tank-cars at the Razdan power station (66,000 tonnes) and 874 tank-cars at the Yerevan power station (49,000 tonnes)…

There were many other facts of this kind. The real cause of the crisis were rampant theft, total irresponsibility and the lack of experience of running the state of the ANM activists. The situation in the republic was precisely characterised by the statement of the former interior Minister Vano Siradegian in one of his interviews when he called the then prime-minister Grant Bagratian, the follower of Yegor Gaidar, “a madman”, who was running the national economy. In turn, Siradegian was accused of organising a series of contract killings, and is now hiding somewhere outside of Armenia. At present, a decade and a half after that many were naïve enough to expect former president Ter-Petroisan to admit his mistakes, recalling the hardships Armenians suffered in the first half of the 1990s. And naturally, their expectations were futile. According to the BBC, he was not going to explain anything, as he did not think it necessary to give explanations in the early 1990s when the country was chilled to the bone without electricity and hot water for three years and when trees were cut in Yerevan for fuel. The former president did not change and did not learn his lessons. He confirmed that at the October 26 meeting saying: ”I am what I am, and that is the way I will stay.”

Robert Kocharian must be right thinking the Armenians do not wish to see a comeback of things of the past. During his stay in Megri, Kocharian made first evaluation of his predecessor’s intentions to return to power. He observed that Levon Ter-Petrosian was not a principal candidate for presidency, so he would hardly be in the focus of public attention. Recalling the sad results of the ANM parliamentary campaign he added:”Seeing that the national economy has been restored, ANM again decided the time came to rob. With their mouths watered, they decided to lean on the resource of the former president8. Certain groups in Armenia (a rather small country where informal relations and kinship play an important role) and influential players abroad (also a significant factor) are undoubtedly interested in the “advancement” of Ter-Petrosian. Confidence in self-righteousness of some of the ANM activists is organically combined with the anti-Russian rhetoric of a tonality close to that of their “senior brothers” in Georgia and Ukraine. It is curious to mention that Azeris also back Ter-Petrosian, doing that in a very unusual way. The most frenzied are yearning for blood, while others wage the information war more skilfully, stating in particular that the hypothetical arrival of Ter-Petrosian to power will not be to the advantage of Azerbaijan as the man will – allegedly – rapidly put an end to the Russian presence, maintaining good relations with Washington, thus weakening Baku’s positions in negotiations on Nagorno Karabakh. Such propaganda ambiguities are made largely with an eye to Armenian Internet users who scoop their information from Azeri web sites…

There is no one questioning the importance of combating corruption, protection of human rights and the rights of a citizen, unless that becomes a pretext for interference in internal affairs of another state, a total or partial liquidation of its sovereignty and the formation of a state power system managed from outside. The current Armenian leadership can be assessed differently. It has not yet solved many acute socio-economic problems. For example, the system of central heating in Yerevan that had “passed away” in the “glorious” days of Ter-Petrosian’s rash liberalism has not yet been restored. Karabakh, once a well-developed industrialized suburb of the Armenian capital now looks like a battlefield with its half-broken buildings with yawning broken windows that previously housed production workshops, robbed during the wild privatization campaign. However, one cannot fail but acknowledge positive changes Robert Kocharian spoke about: in 1997 Armenia’s budget amounted to a mere 300 million dollars, whereas in 2008 its revenues are expected to amount to $2.28 billion with expenditure amounting to $2.5 billion. The sizes of state budgets and GDP of Armenia and Georgia are about the same, even though Georgia is in a much more favourable situation, given bigger territory and population, an access to the sea, and its sizeable revenues thanks to implementing together with Azerbaijan and Turkey joint communications projects. Lavish contributions to the current Tbilisi leadership for its anti-Russian line should not be disregarded either (by the way, one of the accusations Ter-Petrosian’s backers lay on the authorities is Armenia’s isolation from these much touted projects). However, expansion of the Turkish capital into Georgia in mid-term perspective can have quite unexpected consequences affecting its ethnic and confessional situation and stability.

Meanwhile to meet its national interests Armenia started implementing its own projects. They include the construction of a natural gas pipeline from Iran to Armenia, potentially with a branch to Europe, and the project of establishing single energy space with Russia, Iran and Georgia, commissioning of a new automobile road crossing the Megri pass in the mountains, plans of installing the second unit of the Metsamor nuclear power station, a petroleum refinery and a railway line from Armenia to Iran. In the times of Ter-Petrosian who cherished the idea of turning Armenia into a “Middle East crossroads “ the like of Lebanon, and who recently stated that the border between Armenia and Iran is effectively non-existent due to the complicated surface geometry of the region, such plans could not be even dreamed of. Peace and stability are required for the implementation of such projects, but given the unyielding stance of Azerbaijan in the issue of Nagorno Karabakh and its rapid militarization, the republic of Nagorno Karabakh in its present-day borders is a significant element of maintaining the balance of forces in the region.

Ter-Petrosian’s chances of winning the election are as good as nil. According to serious observers, in reality he can only count on the support of not more than a fraction of several percents of the electorate. His only hope is provoking meetings in the streets, pumping up destructive emotions, provoking dissent in the armed forces and law enforcement agencies and what is more dangerous, fanning parochial sentiment (for example, using the scenario of Aiastan – Karabakh setoff), the distinguishing feature of Ter-Petrosian’s “leadership” (especially in the last period of his presidency). Such event would inevitably throw the country back to late 1980s, the period of general upheaval, revolution-like street meetings that pushed him up to the top of presidential power in 1991. Such upheavals spell no good whatever.

Significant effort will be made to dupe the republic‘s citizens. This is an organic component of a possible scenario of the internal political destabilisation. The potential role of the indefatigable minority charged ideologically and amply fed from outside in both organisational and financial terms. In the event anyone else but Ter-Petrosian win the elections Western observers could come up with a bulletproof statement acknowledging their results as illegitimate. For greater persuasiveness some exit-pool results can be presented that would allegedly unequivocally support the “right” candidate. The outer legitimisation of the capture of political authority usually goes hand in hand with a strong information and propaganda pressure, including diplomatic channels (statements of official representatives of the U.S. State Department, PACE and OSCE foreign observers). What will be important at that stage will be the final result, hectic work to fit Armenia into the pro-Western “sanitary cordon” along the borders of Russia and Iran, whereas the actual transparency of the elections and presence or absence of falsifications will have no meaning whatsoever?

The Russian presence in the Transcaucasia in the wake of the hasty and ill thought-out withdrawal of troops from Georgia as well as the forced Azerbaijan’s western drift (the summit of “the Caspian group of Five” would hardly reverse this process) is safeguarded, first and foremost, by union relations with Armenia and mutually advantageous cooperation with Iran (which still is to take its final shape). Implementation of major economic projects with the Russian participation in this region is hardly feasible due to the absence of Russia’s firm military and political positions. So Moscow is interested in the maintenance of stability in Armenia, continuity of its policies after the presidential elections and the continued presence in power of forces oriented toward consolidation of union relations with Russia. It is in Russia’s interests to back Armenia in this complicated period, promoting the smooth-going inner political processes in that country.

Moscow’s clear and unambiguous position in the eventuality of boosted attempts to shake Armenian situation during the pre-election period would by and large be decisive for ensuring stability both in that republic and in the Caucasus.

Source: http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=1042

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Zubkov to Yerevan to discuss Russian-Armenian cooperation

Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov is embarking on a two-day official visit to Armenia on Tuesday evening during which he will discuss a wide range of issues of Russian-Armenian cooperation. On Wednesday morning, the Russian government head will meet Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and speaker of the National Assembly (parliament) Tigran Torosyan, as well as will hold talks with the country's Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan. The sides plan to sign bilateral agreements.

Zubkov will visit the Armenian Apostolic Church’s Mother See - Holy Echmiadzin for a conversation with its head - Supreme Patriarch, All Armenian Catholicos Garegin II. The Russian prime minister will lay a wreath at the memorial to the victims of genocide of Armenians of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire. After the proclamation of independence and sovereignty of the two states this is the fifth visit paid by Russia’s government head to Armenia. Yerevan officials hope that the arrival of the Russian prime minister will serve as a stimulus for the development of, first of all, bilateral economic relations. “Russia is steadily assuming the positions of one of the main investors in the Armenian economy,” Russian Transport Minister Igor Levitin who co-chairs the Intergovernmental Commission for economic cooperation with Armenia said at a Russian-Armenian economic forum that has recently been held in Yerevan by the Armenian government and all-Russian non-governmental organisation Union of Armenians of Russia.

Levitin recalled that Russia’s major investment projects in Armenia include the construction of gas-energy facilities, purchase by the VimpelCom company of assets of the national communications operator ArmenTel, buying by Russia’s Vneshtorgbank (VTB Bank) of Armsberbank (Armenian Savings Bank), modernisation of the Yerevan aluminium plan RusAl-ArmenAl, of energy capacities of the Sevan-Razdan hydropower plant cascade, rehabilitation of a number of Armenian enterprises by the company International Business Centre founded by the Russian RASKO corporate group. The results of an international tender for the concession management of the Armenian Railway Company have been recently summarised. Russian Railways (RZD) was announced the winner.

The foreign trade turnover between the two countries in January-October grew by 63 percent reaching 623.7 million US dollars. The Russian and Armenian sides have been recently discussing “possibilities for the implementation of new large-scale projects.” So their interaction in the sphere of the nuclear power industry is advancing to a new stage. “The Russian side is ready to invest in the follow-up exploration and industrial development of uranium deposits in Armenia” that reach 60,000 tonnes, according to forecasts, as well as to provide assistance to the country in the prolongation of the service life of the Armenian nuclear power plant and construction of a new nuclear power generating unit. Direct industrial relations of Russian regions with Armenia are developing involving over 70 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The system of modern interaction bodies is working stably, in particular, the Russian-Armenian Intergovernmental Commission for economic cooperation. The Trade Mission of the Russian Federation in Armenia was established in 2006 and the opening of an office of the Rosoboronexport arms exporting company in Yerevan is planned. “Russian capital is feeling very comfortable in Armenia,” Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan is certain. In the total volume of foreign investments in the real sector of the Armenian economy made in the period from 1991 to October 2007, Russian investments accounted for almost one billion dollars or one-third of the total.

“The legal field regulating trade-economic relations between Armenia and Russia, an atmosphere of effective cooperation between the two countries’ governments, as well as the presence in Russia of a large and active Armenian community give our businesspeople ample opportunities for the development of mutually advantageous activities in different sectors of the economy,” believes Sarkisyan. Nevertheless, “economic relations between Armenia and Russia so far do not correspond to the level of political strategic partnership between the two countries,” President of the all-Russian non-governmental organisation Union of Armenians of Russia and of the international union of Armenian NGOs World Armenian Congress Ara Abramyan believes.

Source: http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....1721&PageNum=0

Russia’s PM Visits Armenia Feb 5-6

Russia’s Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov goes on a two-day official visit to Armenia February 5 on invitation of his Armenian counterpart Serge Sarkisyan. In Armenia, Zubkov will also meet President Robert Kocharyan and Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II, spokesman of Russia’s government’s press service said. A source with Russia’s delegation reminded that Armenia holds presidential elections February 19, while a new president of Russia will be elected March 2. “We assume that succession in power will be preserved after elections of presidents and the dialogue of our states will develop further,” the source said, adding that the current prime minister is the obvious frontrunner to the president’s office in Armenia. Economic cooperation, mostly the advance of its trading and investment components, will be another highlight at the talks, the source pointed out. Russia’s-Armenian turnover exceeded $0.7 billion in 2007 and the trading, including both import and export, was gaining 60 percent each year in the past two years. Russia’s Gazprom, RAO UES of Russia, RZD, ALROSA, RUSAL, AFK Sistema, VimpelCom, Bank VTB work successfully in Armenia. “Russia meets gas requirements of Armenia in whole and the contracts have been made till 2009,” the source emphasized. According to the source, Armenia’s proposal to construct a refinery in its territory is being currently deliberated; the project involves Russia and Iran. “The deliberations are at the very initial stage, there are lots of issues, including the supplies of crude oil,” the official said.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-11998/r_528/Zubkov_Armenia/

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Comrades: Second high-ranking Russian official “promotes” relations with Serzh

Economic was on the agenda but politics was on the public mind when Russia’s Prime Minister Victor Zubkov visited his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan in Yerevan starting Tuesday. For the second time since official campaigning for the February 19 presidential election began, a high-ranking Russian official has visited the Prime Minister in a show of support for Sargsyan as Armenia’s next Head of State. On the second and last day of his visit, Wednesday, Zubkov spoke of expanding economic and trade ties between the two states. “Russia continues to remain Armenia’s chief trade and economic partner. The trade turnover [between Armenia and Russia] shows considerable growth from year to year and we hope that in the near future the trade between the two countries will reach $1 billion [a year],” Zubkov said, adding that trade between the two nations showed a 60 percent increase to reach $700 million during 2007.

Armenia’s prime minister also positively assessed the level of economic cooperation between the two countries. “The current state of Armenian-Russian relations satisfies both sides. But these relations need constant attention, we intend to deepen them in the future,” Sargsyan said. On January 28, Russian State Duma Speaker Boriz Gryzlov paid a visit to Armenia. As the leader of Russia’s ruling United Russia party, Gryzlov then signed cooperation deals with Armenia’s governing coalition members – the Sargsyan-led Republican Party and the Prosperous Armenia party. Both Gryzlov and Zubkov, however, stopped short of overtly declaring the Kremlin’s endorsement for Armenia’s incumbent. While Armenian media were more restrained in giving evaluations to the visit of the second senior Russian statesmen to Armenia in the pre-election period, the Russian press overtly described it as “promotional”.

In a preview of Zubkov’s visit to Armenia, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper, in particular, wrote: “Zubkov’s visit at the height of the pre-election campaign is an unequivocal display of Moscow’s support. In reality, it is more needed by Sargsyan, since presidential elections are only two weeks away, and the incumbent prime minister is considered a frontrunner in the race.” However, Eduard Sharmazanov, spokesman for Sargsyan’s party, downplayed the "promotional" impact of the Russian premier’s visit to Armenia. “I don’t think it is a PR action, it is a working meeting,” Sharmazanov told RFE/RL yesterday. “I think the visit is another manifestation of cooperation and once again testifies that Armenian-Russian cooperation is on very serious bases both in Armenia and in the Russian Federation.”

Source: http://armenianow.com/?action=viewAr...2&IID=&lng=eng