Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

[Haykakan]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

My whole point has been that Russia is doing with Armenia what is in her(Russias) best interest, show me a single example where as you claim i make any statement like Russia will take care of Armenia out of good will. I have never stated such a thing and the fact that you are making inferences like that means you have no argument and are resorting to making up bs to smear rather then to rationaly make any useful point. Russias and Armenias do coinside in very important areas thus clinging to Russia is indeed the right thing to do. Armenia should grow its own defence industry but in everything it does it has to keep the Russia factor in mind. This is our reality and it is irrelavent of what ignorent people think so long as they are not in power. The worst possible thing would be to put somone like Levon in power and then watch Armenia deteriorate because he didnt understand the extent of our dependence on Russia and made foolish decisions earning Russian retaliation. In the layout of whats to come we will be seeing a richer and more powerfull Russian federation while the west continues its decline. You indeed need to cling to Russia for it is the only gueranteer of any future for a Armenian state and its people. For all that Russia did bad during soviet times the clear fact that remains is that the standard of living even after all this time has yet to approach that which the armenian citizens enjoyed during the soviet era.

[levon]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

Its kind of funny that the only thing you effectively criticize is my spelling which any word processor can fix but what is going to fix your lack of rational?

No, it's just that the only thing you can effectively counteract is your spelling. And seriously, if it isn't hard, then go ahead and fix your spelling as it is very distracting for the reader.

Of course the Russians armed us to buffer the Azeris, thats what i have been saying all along yet you somehow conclude that you can now do whatever you want with the russian weapons.

I've been saying that just because Russians armed us doesn't mean they give a damn about us, and so we must plan everything as if Russians weren't there. Funny, you agree with what I've been arguing, yet claim it has been your argument all along.

Where did i say they gave us the weapons out of good will?

Your praise of Armenia's relationship with Russia did its best to suggest that in your opinion Russia is simply willing to take care of Armenia just out of good wills.

Clinging to Russia is our only hope and to think otherwise is suicide.

No, clinging to Russia will only make our dependence stronger. What you're suggesting is the same as telling an addict that he should hangout with drug dealers, because otherwise he won't be able to get a fix and that would be suicide. F&ck Russia, while they're there, it's good, but in the mean time we must continue developing our own defense industry to lessen dependence on foreign weapon imports.

[Haykakan]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

Its kind of funny that the only thing you effectively criticize is my spelling which any word processor can fix but what is going to fix your lack of rational? Of course the Russians armed us to buffer the Azeris, thats what i have been saying all along yet you somehow conclude that you can now do whatever you want with the russian weapons. Where did i say they gave us the weapons out of good will? You know those weapoms break, they wear out, get stolen, get obsolete... We are gona need new weapons sooner or later and who is gona give them to us next time if we spit in Russias face? Clinging to Russia is our only hope and to think otherwise is suicide. No one wants to be in this situation and the only reason we are in it is because we have no other choice.

[levon]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

Well that was a long winded tiraid with nothing but emotional garbadge coming from a guy who laughs at women for the same kind of stuff.

Respect for the fallen warriors and crying because she couldn't get the shoes she wanted are entirely different things.

Exactly who is gona equip you with this "painful bite" you speak of?

Makes no difference. It just means, if they attack we go all out, just as in Karabagh

And again you continue with your simplistic ideas of warfair which make it obvious you know nothing at all about it.

When you learn to properly spell, then may you can start trying to call things simplistic. The only thing simplistic at the moment is your elementary grade spelling (which must be tough for someone claiming to be in a master's program)

I grew up during the war, you on the other hand, were getting shot down by chicks left and right during that time (as you have confessed in another thread), so that's where my ideas come from, but yours I guess come from all the crying you did when you got shot down.

Armenia got all of its weapons from russia much of it either free or bellow cost but now that we have these weaps you simply want to forget about who gave them to you and "pull your head out of Russia's gigantic a$$hole".

Russia gave us weapons, that's great. But that gives Russia no right to expect it's a$$ licked. Don't forget, by giving Armenia weapons they effectively exert pressure on Azerbaijan. Don't for a moment think that it was just good will. They simply found it easier to arm Armenia and bring it to a position that could easily challenge Azerbaijan, at which point Azerbaijan lost a lot of negotiation power (as threats of war became meaningless) and Russia simply gained higher negotiating power by shifting the ball from Azeris to Armenia to Russia.

Russia don't give a sh!t about us. If things were different, if Azeris were strictly pro-Russia, and Russia controlled all Azeri oil, they would be supporting the Azeris instead. It's just a f$cking game, but I guess you don't get that.

With logic like this you might last as a leader for a week or two but unfortunatly your not the only one this naive.

Again, glaring spelling errors. Seriously, how hard is it to spell unfortunately correctly, but there you are, trying to form an argument with these errors in place, which already forces the reader to take you that much less seriously.

On to your actual comment. If you're calling me naive, then I would rather die a naive man knowing full well that I wasn't a coward, rather than rationalize away all my freedoms in the name of "Mother Russia"

Perhaps it would do you some good to follow your own advice and "pull your head out of your own gigantic a$$hole".

Wow, you have quite the imagination

[Haykakan]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

There is no right nor wrong. You either fight to survive or fight to flee. This makes winners and losers. Winners simply wanted to survive and win more than the losers.

Oh, and btw, it misconception not misconseption, doubt not dought (I have no idea from where you could possibly come up with the spelling dought, but then again, your ideas are very similar. Completely biased, fact-less, and prone to many errors.)

Here is a repeat of what I said earlier. Those who actually fought during the war will look at you and spit at your ideas, and some will tell you to go f&ck yourself. You display absolutely no understanding of what the reality of the war was, and what it means to simply label those lands as "bargaining chips".

Furthermore, if you would like to pray and praise Armenia's dependence on Russia, then keep doing so, but please, don't fool yourself into thinking that any Kharabagh Armenian will give an inch of land without bloodshed. People like you may crawl into the lion's nest hoping for protection, and completely surrender themselves to the lions commands. At the same time others will simply state death before dishonor and aim to continue our race, while the likes of you will keep screaming the irrational ideas of "peace through cooperation (with the most hostile of enemies), praise multi-ethnicity, and attempt to advance sissy-liberal values which will eventually lead to full assimilation of you and those like you.

Seriously, 4000 years of constant warfare suddenly disappeared from your mind as you rather rapidly draw friendship with the idea that hostile neighbors can live peacefully, that land gained through blood can be given for peace? We, Armenians have already given more than enough for peace, yet it has eluded us nonetheless.

We should learn our lessons and realize that no compromises, no sacrifices, no signs of weakness, and no giving in to the enemy are the only way to make sure of our survival. We need to be equipped with such a painful bite, that countries will think twice before trying anything. Our minds have to be fully focused on the overall goal, which is complete and utter protection of our homeland (which includes Karabagh and the surrounding areas under our control. We fought for it, therefore it's ours) no matter the consequences to us. We must be prepared to tell Russia or any other country to F&CK off if they attempt to force us into a compromising position.

Our ancestors did not perish just to see a country of liberal a$$, wishy-washy wimps who tremble in front of Azeri threats and Russian muscle. Have respect for them, and pull your head out of Russia's gigantic a$$hole.

Well that was a long winded tiraid with nothing but emotional garbadge coming from a guy who laughs at women for the same kind of stuff. Exactly who is gona equip you with this "painful bite" you speak of? And again you continue with your simplistic ideas of warfair which make it obvious you know nothing at all about it. Armenia got all of its weapons from russia much of it either free or bellow cost but now that we have these weaps you simply want to forget about who gave them to you and "pull your head out of Russia's gigantic a$$hole". With logic like this you might last as a leader for a week or two but unfortunatly your not the only one this naive. Perhaps it would do you some good to follow your own advice and "pull your head out of your own gigantic a$$hole".

[levon]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

Well Levon you simply prove your misconseption of reality everytime you make a post. There is no dought that people who believe they are fighting for the right reasons will fight much harder then those that dont think they are fighting for the right reasons, well there is no dought on this fact except i guess in your mind.

There is no right nor wrong. You either fight to survive or fight to flee. This makes winners and losers. Winners simply wanted to survive and win more than the losers.

Oh, and btw, it misconception not misconseption, doubt not dought (I have no idea from where you could possibly come up with the spelling dought, but then again, your ideas are very similar. Completely biased, fact-less, and prone to many errors.)

Here is a repeat of what I said earlier. Those who actually fought during the war will look at you and spit at your ideas, and some will tell you to go f&ck yourself. You display absolutely no understanding of what the reality of the war was, and what it means to simply label those lands as "bargaining chips".

Furthermore, if you would like to pray and praise Armenia's dependence on Russia, then keep doing so, but please, don't fool yourself into thinking that any Kharabagh Armenian will give an inch of land without bloodshed. People like you may crawl into the lion's nest hoping for protection, and completely surrender themselves to the lions commands. At the same time others will simply state death before dishonor and aim to continue our race, while the likes of you will keep screaming the irrational ideas of "peace through cooperation (with the most hostile of enemies), praise multi-ethnicity, and attempt to advance sissy-liberal values which will eventually lead to full assimilation of you and those like you.

Seriously, 4000 years of constant warfare suddenly disappeared from your mind as you rather rapidly draw friendship with the idea that hostile neighbors can live peacefully, that land gained through blood can be given for peace? We, Armenians have already given more than enough for peace, yet it has eluded us nonetheless.

We should learn our lessons and realize that no compromises, no sacrifices, no signs of weakness, and no giving in to the enemy are the only way to make sure of our survival. We need to be equipped with such a painful bite, that countries will think twice before trying anything. Our minds have to be fully focused on the overall goal, which is complete and utter protection of our homeland (which includes Karabagh and the surrounding areas under our control. We fought for it, therefore it's ours) no matter the consequences to us. We must be prepared to tell Russia or any other country to F&CK off if they attempt to force us into a compromising position.

Our ancestors did not perish just to see a country of liberal a$$, wishy-washy wimps who tremble in front of Azeri threats and Russian muscle. Have respect for them, and pull your head out of Russia's gigantic a$$hole.

[Haykakan]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

Well Levon you simply prove your misconseption of reality everytime you make a post. There is no dought that people who believe they are fighting for the right reasons will fight much harder then those that dont think they are fighting for the right reasons, well there is no dought on this fact except i guess in your mind. Mr UrMistake i think it is indeed your mistake that you compare the regions in question to our legitimate historic homeland. Western Armenia is where most of our people made their history and culture, it truely is our homeland-where we came from and lived for thousends of years yet the mighty dashnaks abandoned much of it and even stopped those trying to win it back like Andranik. The comparison you make is like comparing apples and oranges. Iondontsi your post is strategicaly accurate but but it ignores a very important factor and that factor again is Russia. Russia has always controlled its immediate neighbors (i am including Armenia and Azerbadjian in this catagory) by depriving each of the strategic advantage. Due to the agreement the dashnaks made, Armenias western flank is completely not defendable, should Russia abandon our western front Yerevan will fall in less then a week because it is completely not defendable. This reliance on Russia is created by Russia in all of her neighbors. It has been a effective strategy for a long time and applies to us as well. Russia does not want Armenia to be self reliant neither economicaly nor militeraly and the same for the Azeris. Russia does not protect us from the turck for 90 years because of our looks and black eyes, it does it because it is in its interest to bufffer the turcks. Russia will only allow us to get stronger if it believes it would serve her interests and that is why alighning our interests with it is very important. I want more then anything else for Armenia to be selfrelient, strong, able to defend herself, economicaly successful but the reality is that Armenia is unable to accomplish any of this today. Wining a war against the Azeris is indeed a accomplishment but dont let it get to your heads, there are far bigger dangers for Armenia then the Azeris and the only thing holding those dangers from eating us is Russia. Yes indeed we are a dependent nation and to deny this is simply dillusional. We should all work for a stronger and better homeland but it is important to keep a firm grip on reality. It is the lack of this firm grip on reality that worries me about the dashnaks who fail time and again to identify what is in the nations interest.

[UrMistake]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

I dont believe that still Haykakan will eat up so easy azeri propaganda..he have no belief in his people...
And if this regions are not inhabited by armenians that means that our lands in turkey or iran or georgia must not come to its rightfully owners?

[levon]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

Levon i really wish you would either think befor you post stuff or just plain stfu.

I think before I post, and just because what you say is plain idiotic and I disagree with it does not mean I've committed a wrong.

Your errors miiror those of many others here and have been and will be proven wrong all over again just like the protocals and the sarkisian situation.

First of all, its mirror not miiror, protocols not protocals, and Sarkisyan not sarkisian. So before you try to point out my errors, fix yours first. Then, afterward I will ask you to prove that the statement you just made isn't like the many unsupported statements you are known to make when engaged in an argument.

What you dont see and dont understand is that this is not just up to Armenia and azeris.

If Armenia decides to give back lands, it would be up to Armenians and if Azeris decide to give up their claims it would be entirely up to them.

There are greater powers involved here and non bigger then Russia. Russia will pretty much dictate this situation just as it has for a long time done so.

OOOOH, so you mean how before Azerbaijan formally broke away from Soviet Union and Russians were actively sending infantry to support the Azeri offensives, and how the Russians pretty much destroyed several villages, it wasn't up to us? Well, we fought back, and had we not, there wouldn't be us anymore. But I guess you were safely tucked away in the US learning how to be a wuss.

There would have been a war already if it was not for Russian invasion of Georgia.

REALLY??? Or maybe that's just Azeri propaganda aimed at spreading fear amongst the Armenian public to make their threats of war more real? Think about it.

The Russians warned the Azeris of restarting hostilities at the time and scared them off from starting another war.

Interesting interpretation. In my opinion, Azeris just spread lies about how they were ready to attack and only stopped because of "mighty Russia". Don't forget, just over two years ago Azeris launched an offensive during the post-election turmoil in Armenia, and there was no Russia to stop them. Our soldiers just f&cked them up and put them back to their place.
Take that into account before you claim that Azeris won't launch an offensive without Russia's approval.

It is good and well to fight for and defend your country but those regions are not our country and are not even populated by our people nor anyone else for that matter.

Those regions are our country, and just because they're not populated now, they will be populated by Armenians sooner or later.
The quickest way to lose something is to believe it was never yours to begin with

People fight for what is right, to save their own lives or the ones of their loved ones-countrymen... this is the reason we won in kharabagh.

The reason we won Karabagh was because if we lost, there wouldn't be Armenia. There is no right or wrong in war, just winners and losers.

Those regions surrounding kharabagh are bargaining chips intended to be used as such and i have no problem with the Armenian government doing just that.

As I said, comments like yours completely disrespect all the soldiers who shed blood in order to obtain those lands. You have no problem with that??, well then, you go and tell that to the vets who came back having lost many friends, and the the families of lost soldiers. Tell that to the kids that when asked "what do you want to be when you grow up", answered "I want to be a fallen Fedayee". You know what they will answer in return, GO F&CK YOURSELF, that's what they would say to your complete disregard for a Fedayees sacrifice.

[londontsi]

Re: Dashnaktsutyun - Armenian Revolutionary Federation

http://www.regnum.ru/english/679147.html

Surrender of territories to Azerbaijan: strategic consequences for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh



In the light of the continuing discourse on how to preserve the “favorable window of opportunities” in the Karabakh peace process, people in Armenia keep actively talking about the settlement principles that have reportedly been presented to the Armenian and Azeri presidents for discussion and possible signing. These principles stipulate that Armenian troops be withdrawn from the liberated territories and the territories, except for the Lachin corridor, be given back to Azerbaijan.

The article is about the importance the liberated territory has for ensuring the key element of Armenia’s national security – its military component. When speaking about Armenia, you should keep in mind two states, the Republic of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), who are fully integrated in military and economic terms. As you may know, military security is a condition of a state that allows it to exclude any damage to its vital interests that can be caused by threat or practical armed violence.

The given analysis is based on an axiom that is generally accepted among experts: for ensuring national security one should be ready for the worst scenario. And now, let’s more thoroughly consider the significance the liberated territory has for ensuring the military security of Armenia (RA and NKR).

The military conflict of 1991-1994 has improved the quality of the following elements of the military-strategic position of the Armenian states:

1. Frontline configuration

The present configuration of the frontline is optimal for the Armenian side. The southern flank of the Artsakh front is shielded by the Iranian border, the northern flank – by the hard-to-access Mrav mountain range. In the east – from the mountains of Mrav to the river Arax – the Armenian side has a well-fortified multi-echelon defense line.

Should the Armenian side give back the territories of six districts and keep only Lachin, the total frontline of the two Armenian states with Azerbaijan, including Nakhichevan, will get 450 km longer to 1,100 km. The frontline between Artsakh and Azerbaijan will lengthen by 150 km to 360 km. For you to have the full picture of how long a border Armenia will have with its conflicting neighbors, we should remind you that Armenia also has a poorly protected 268 km border with Turkey.

In order to effectively fortify the extended frontline the Armenian side will have to mobilize substantial human and financial resources.

First, the Armenian side will have to increase its army personnel (the Armed Forces of Armenia and the Defense Army of Artsakh (Karabakh)) and, therefore, to prolong the compulsory service term for privates and to enroll contract officers.

Second, after withdrawing troops, the Armenian side will have to undertake big expenses to create new defense lines. To carry out the above measures, the Armenian side will have to augment its military budget, but to do this, it will have to further curtail its scarce social financing and to face the ensuing negative consequences.

2. Depth of defense

The liberated territories have allowed the Armenian side to ensure the minimum defense depth and to solve several important strategic problems:

First, the present depth of defense has allowed the Armenian side to form a multi-echelon defense line. Should the first line be broken, the Armenian side will be able to resist on the following ones and to keep the enemy outside Artsakh until additional troops come from Armenia.

Second, the central densely-populated areas of Artsakh, including its capital, Stepanakert, as well as the settlements of the Goris, Kapan and Meghri districts of Armenia have become inaccessible for shelling by Azeri artillery and multiple rocket launching systems (BM-21 “Grad”).

Third, by liberating the Zangelan, Jebrail and Fizuli districts and moving the frontline over 100 km eastward, the Armenian side has liquidated the threat to the vulnerable, just 40 km wide Meghri district of the Republic of Armenia.

If the six districts are given back to the enemy and the frontline is moved back to the former administrative border of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, the Armenian side will lose the necessary depth for effective defense and will face bigger difficulties in defending Artsakh should a new war begin.

The new frontline will run just 5 km away from the district centers of Mardakert, Askeran and Hadrut and 18 km away from Stepanakert. If the Armenian side gives back the Karvachar (formerly Kelbajar) district too, the Martakert district will get vulnerable to possible military attacks from three sides.

Even fortified to the maximum, the new defense line will not be a reliable guarantor of Artsakh’s military security. As we know from military history, any well-fortified defense line (Mannerheim line, Siegfried line, Bar-Lev line) can be broken by the attacker, and only sufficient depth of defense can allow the defender to organize new resistance lines and by wearing the enemy out to stop his attack. For example, during the Yom Kippur War (1973), when the Egyptian troops overran the 157.5 km long and 15 km deep Bar-Lev line in Sinai in just six hours, it was exactly the depth of the line that allowed Israel to stop the Egyptian troops, to prevent them from going deep into its territory, to mobilize new forces and to turn around the situation.

Besides, if the border is moved, most of the settlements of Artsakh and the Sunik region of Armenia, first of all, Stepanakert, Kapan and Goris, will find themselves unprotected in the face of possible massive shelling by the enemy. If a new war starts, a sudden massive bombing of towns, district centers and villages by artillery and “Grads” will cause big casualties among civilians and heavy in destruction in Artsakh and Sunik. This may result in a mass exodus of people from the area.

3. Military communications

Efficient military communications, well-trained and equipped mobile troops, timely supply of arms, hardware, ammunition, fuel and other stuff and quick evacuation are really crucial in modern war. For the Armenian side, regular military communications would be really indispensable, should the enemy get big superiority during the first days of the war.

Let’s see in detail what military communications each side has:

Azerbaijan

The densely-populated areas of Azerbaijan are connected with the Artsakh front by two railroads: Baku-Yevlakh and Baku-Horadiz station and several motor roads: Baku-Shemakha-Yevlakh, Baku-Kurdamir-Yevlakh and Baku-Birmai-Bailakan (Zhdanovsk) as well as belt road Yevlakh-Barda-Agjabedy-Bailakan – quite a convenient road running along the frontline. All running via steppe, these roads will allow the enemy to quickly send mobilized troops to the Artsakh front and to get multiple superiority in personnel and hardware before the approach of the Armenian troops.

Artsakh

With the present frontline configuration, there are four motor roads connecting Armenia with Artsakh and the frontline: Vardenis-Mardakert, Goris-Stepanakert-Askeran-Agdam, Kapan-Zangelan-Jebrail and Meghri-Mijavan-Horadiz. If the war resumes, these roads will allow the Armenian sides to bring up quite big troops from Armenia to the Artsakh front in just a few days.

So-called belt roads – communications running along the frontline – are crucial for the frontline resistive capacity. They allow to quickly redeploy troops to wherever there is a danger of breach. At present the Artsakh Defense Army has two belt roads: Mardakert-Agdam-Fizuli-Jebrail and the North-South highway project to connect Mardakert-Stepanakert-Red Bazar-Hadrut.

If the six liberated districts are surrendered, the Armenian armed forces will control only one belt road – Mardakert-Hadrut and only one road connecting mainland Armenia with Sunik and Artsakh – Yerevan-Goris-Stepanakert. This road runs through a highly mountainous area with many passes.

If a new war starts, the Armenians will find it extremely difficult to keep the narrow Lachin corridor from the enemy’s two-side strikes, but even if they retain Lachin, the enemy will use its artillery and aviation to make it as hard as possible for Armenia to quickly transfer big military forces and material and medical assistance to Artsakh.

Meanwhile, the fate of Artsakh will depend exactly on how quickly Armenia will supply it with troops as the Defense Army of Artsakh may prove not strong enough to resist the onslaught of the greatly prevalent enemy.

Thus, you clearly see that the liberated territory is extremely important for keeping the military balance between the conflicting sides, while its surrender by the Armenian side will break it to Azerbaijan’s advantage and will strongly aggravate the military-strategic situation of the Armenian states – something neither peace agreements nor international peacekeepers will compensate for. This is especially dangerous as Azerbaijan is heavily swelling its military potential, particularly, by redoubling its military budget in 2006 — from $300 mln to $600 mln – while Armenia will hardly be able to keep pace in the coming years for the following reasons:

1. The state budget of Armenia is 3.5 times smaller than the state budget of Azerbaijan ($1 bln against $3.5bln) and this gap will continue to grow as Azerbaijan will increase its oil exports. Meanwhile, Armenia’s economic potential will not allow this country to allot as much money to the military as to keep the military parity with Azerbaijan.

2. Armenia can no longer hope for the big free military hardware supplies that it got from Russia in the mid 1990s and that helped it to keep military balance with Azerbaijan for the last decade. The key military partner of Armenia, Russia has begun to show more pragmatic policy in the last years, with no political or economic preferences.

Hence, only by retaining the liberated territory, carrying out military reforms and improving the state administration system as a whole will the Armenian side be able to offset the growing military potential of the enemy and, thereby, to keep the Azeri side from temptation to resume military actions.

Given the continuing variance of the sides concerning the status of Artsakh, any change in the present configuration of the contact line will not stop the conflict but will simply create another, much more conflict-prone situation in the sphere of security.

Should Azerbaijan, whose leadership keeps saying that it will never put up with the loss of Karabakh, agree to sign peace agreements, but will later prove not content with the return of just six districts and will make up its mind to get back the whole Artsakh by war, Armenia will get in a serious danger.

Turning to advantage the change in the military balance and the consequent vulnerability of Artsakh’s whole defense system, Azerbaijan may use some convenient political moment to launch a blitzkrieg attack and to occupy Artsakh. In order to break the frontline, the Azeris will quickly concentrate strongly prevalent forces for one main blow – not a hard thing to do for them given the big quantitative and technical prevalence of the Azeri Army over the Defense Army of Artsakh and the facts that 70% of Azeri troops are deployed near the frontline and that Azerbaijan has better capacities for quickly deploying mobilized troops to the Artsakh front. The outcome of the war will greatly depend on its very first days, particularly, on the ability of the Defense Army of Artsakh to keep the frontline intact, which may prove quite a hard job.

Armenia will have very limited capacities to help Artsakh: it will not be able to use the vulnerable Lachin corridor for transferring big military contingents. If the frontline is broken and the Armenian troops fail to stop the enemy at Stepanakert, the Armenian side may lose not only Artsakh but also Sunik. If Azerbaijan occupies Artsakh, Turkey will certainly encourage it to try to make true the Pan-Turkic dream: to seize the Meghri district, thereby, linking Azerbaijan with Turkey and cutting Armenia from Iran. To this end, the enemy may strike from two sides – from Zangelan and Nakhichevan. After losing Artsakh, it will be extremely hard for the Armenian side to keep Meghri: the district is very narrow and lacks the necessary defense depth, while the motor roads connecting it with the rest of Armenia are quite vulnerable.

The liquidation of Serbian Krajina in Croatia in 1995 is one example of how real this scenario can be: Croatia broke earlier cease-fire agreements, mobilized its armed forces and suddenly attacked Serbian Krajina. In some few days they broke the frontline and occupied the region. As a result, Serbian Krajina stopped to exist and half million of Serbs were forced to leave their homeland and become refugees. This tragedy happened in the center of Europe in the presence of thousands-strong UN peacekeeping contingent and led to no sanctions against the aggressor side.

Conclusions:

1. One of the key factors keeping the military balance between Armenia and Artsakh, from the one side, and Azerbaijan, from the other, and compensating for Azerbaijan’s personnel and hardware superiority and capacity to increase its military potential is the present optimal configuration of the Artsakh frontline.

2. The existing military balance rather than the cease-fire agreement of 1994 is keeping Azerbaijan back from resuming large-scale military actions.

3. By giving back any part of the liberated territory, the Armenian side will give Azerbaijan a military advantage and will reduce its own military security. This may inspire the enemy – should there be convenient moment — to solve the Karabakh problem by war. That’s why it is absolutely inadmissible to surrender the liberated territory to the enemy.

4. Given the aggressive and genocide-prone Azeri-Turkish alliance, with its overwhelming military prevalence and open desire to destroy the Armenian statehood, the key security guarantee for Armenia and Artsakh must be the Armenian Army and the present territory of the Armenian states (42,000 sq. km.)