Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Oh I didn't see that Crusader. From the looks of it, and the timing I think the Armenians of Javakh were biding their time and didn't want to make the annoucment too soon, but not too late either, at a time when the world was still focused on georgia. The annoucment doesn't sound like anything binding obviously but if the georgians crack down on Javakh Armenians then we can be sure there will be fireworks as Russia would likely use Javakh as another excuse to punish georgia. Who knows though, let's see how official tiflis reacts to it.

[RSNATION]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

And another important development!


Javakhk Armenians Call for Autonomy


AKHALKALAK, Gerogia (A-Info)--Armenian non-governmental organizations working in Georgia's Armenian-populated Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartili regions issued a joint announcement calling for the formation of a federative Georgian republic, with great autonomies granted to its ethnic populated districts, including the Armenians of Javakhk.

Citing the end to the military operations and the efforts by the sides to the conflict and the international community to find solutions to addressing this problem, as well as the fact that resolving ethnic conflicts militarily only jeopardize the security of the population, the Armenian organizational collective issued a six-point announcement calling for autonomy for Javakhk Armenians. Below are the points:


In order to guarantee the country's stability and democratic development, and to re-establish Georgia's territorial integrity and statehood, as well as to resolve ethnic conflicts in a objective, just and legal manner, Georgia's government should become a federative state, with regional and federal government structures;


Under the federative system of government, the central authorities of Georgia will retain the powers provided under Article 3 Section of the Georgian Constitution [Eds: Article 3 mandates the government to oversee issues of national interest, including foreign policy, defense, national and social security and economy];


The basis for the creation of regional bodies should include the preservation and advancement of ethnic identity of groups comprising Georgia's population.


Provide Samtskhe-Javakheti--with its current boundaries--and the neighboring mainly Armenian-populated region of Kvemo-Kartali autonomy within a federate state of Georgia, ensuring it with broad self-governing rights, including the right to free elections to the population for local governing bodies,


Through constitutional amendments, guarantee that Armenian will be the official language of Samtskhe-Javakheti, in addition to the current official state language;


Guarantee the representation of Samtskhe-Javakheti in the legislative, executive and judicial branches of the government.

The Armenian organizational collective emphasized that this aforementioned proposal would be the best manner through which to emerge from the current crisis, adding that government of Georgia should, at the very least, listen to its peaceful population and provide them with the same opportunities that it is providing to those citizens who “raised their weapons against the government.”

The organizations said that the impetus for this announcement was, first and foremost, the interests of Georgia and Samtskhe-Javakheti, which is part and parcel of the country.


http://www.asbarez.com/index.html?sh...pen&ASBSC=Open

WOW!!!! I really do hope the Armenians in Javakh are ready and organized. I also hope that when the time comes, they are assisted in every way by Armenia as well as the diaspora {though this is not certain, at least for the time being}. My feeling is that Georgia, even though weakened and humiliated, is going to start scape-goating Armenians in Javakh and they will be further encouraged in doing so by Turkey, Azerbaijan and Israel. Armenians there are indeed frustrated and now is the time for them to stand-up. They have destiny in their hands, and they can decide the fate of the BTC and the railroad, they can help decide the fate of western-Georgia along with the Abkhazians.

[RSNATION]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

I did say before that they should bide their time but as it stands and the way things are turning out, it might be time for the Armenians in Javakh to make a move. I guarantee that the Georgians and their unholy alliance are planning something sinister there right now.

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

I did say before that they should bide their time but as it stands and the way things are turning out, it might be time for the Armenians in Javakh to make a move. I guarantee that the Georgians and their unholy alliance are planning something sinister there right now.

I said before that this scenario (on a smaller scale) resembles the situation in the Ottoman Empire before the Genocide...

A weakened Ottoman Empire loses lands

At the same time, Armenians demand their rights

Turks massacre them in a revenge minded reaction to prevent further loss of lands.

vs.

A weakened Georgia loses lands

At the same time, Armenians demand their rights (in Javakhk)

...Will the Georgians be as barbaric as the Turks were in 1915?

Judging what they did in Tskenvili, one can safely assume yes.

The one difference in this scenario now is that Armenians have a state now that is capable of defending its compatriots.

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

You can bet if georgians react the same way the turks did in the early 20th century that this time we will have more than an ample response. It's one thing for official Yerevan to not assist Javakh's peaceful autonomous demands but another if georgians use force and start to kill hundreds, if not thousands of Armenians.

[yerazhishda]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

You can bet if georgians react the same way the turks did in the early 20th century that this time we will have more than an ample response. It's one thing for official Yerevan to not assist Javakh's peaceful autonomous demands but another if georgians use force and start to kill hundreds, if not thousands of Armenians.

Not to mention the political ammunition it would give the Russians to move further south to stay and "help out". I can see Medvedev giving a press conference now: "See! We told you that Saakashvili was crazy! We told you that the Georgians can't be trusted!"

[Armenian]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Politically and economically, Armenia today does 'not' have the courage/backbone, not to mention the capability, to wage a war against Georgia - unless Moscow gives Yerevan the green light and direct support. Seeing that the situation in Georgia is seriously bordering on a Third World War, I don't think Moscow will be looking to widen this conflict further by making Armenia jump into the fire. Also, the factors that forced Armenians to rise up against Turks in Artsakh do not currently exist in Javakhq. I'm sure officials in Tbilisi realize this. As a result, I don't think Tbilisi will be looking to incite its Armenian population any time soon. However, seeing just how irrational and idiotic the leadership in Georgia has been, I might be proven wrong...

[RSNATION]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Politically and economically, Armenia today does 'not' have the courage/backbone, not to mention the capability, to wage a war against Georgia - unless Moscow gives Yerevan the green light and direct support. Seeing that the situation in Georgia is seriously bordering on a Third World War, I don't think Moscow will be looking to widen this conflict further by making Armenia jump into the fire. Also, the factors that forced Armenians to rise up against Turks in Artsakh do not currently exist in Javakhq. I'm sure officials in Tbilisi realize this. As a result, I don't think Tbilisi will be looking to incite its Armenian population any time soon. However, seeing just how irrational and idiotic the leadership in Georgia has been, I might be proven wrong...

You're probably right. Armenia is most likely weary of getting involved. At the same time, the Georgians are probably looking to make an example of somebody and considering that Armenia/Armenians are pro-Russian, the Georgians might make life even more difficult for Armenians in Javakh. Let's hope the Armenians there are vigilant

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

In the end, Javakhk Armenians are not asserting independence from Georgia, just autonomy.

With that said, Tibilisi should not over-react, but judging from recent history, they just might.

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Armenian, by "capability" do you mean strictly militarily Armenia can't defeat georgia one on one, or because of the politcal factors that would realistically be involved, such as azerbaijan and possibly even turkey coming to georgia's aid? If it is the latter than I agree, it would be a very serious risk for Armenia to take, even with Russian backing.


One thing I disagree with though is that this current conflict being close to a possible ww3. I think it would have to be a big miscalculation on the u.s. to fight Russia, especially over georgia, more likely the recent news that poland would host the interceptor missles and Russia's talk of nuking poland and setting up bases in cuba are more likely to trigger a major conflict. At the end of the day the u.s. has more important spheres of influence to manage and really can't afford militarily or economically to fight another war, especially with a nuclear armed country.