Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

[RSNATION]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Armenian, by "capability" do you mean strictly militarily Armenia can't defeat georgia one on one, or because of the politcal factors that would realistically be involved, such as azerbaijan and possibly even turkey coming to georgia's aid? If it is the latter than I agree, it would be a very serious risk for Armenia to take, even with Russian backing.


One thing I disagree with though is that this current conflict being close to a possible ww3. I think it would have to be a big miscalculation on the u.s. to fight Russia, especially over georgia, more likely the recent news that poland would host the interceptor missles and Russia's talk of nuking poland and setting up bases in cuba are more likely to trigger a major conflict. At the end of the day the u.s. has more important spheres of influence to manage and really can't afford militarily or economically to fight another war, especially with a nuclear armed country.

All this yammering about a possible WW3 from neo-cons, media, politicians etc is so ridiculous. If anything, we'll be back to a cold war situation between the US and its clients and Russian; detente. They'll fight proxy wars against one another and both will court China. Ultimately, the US "war on terrorism" will fail because in any battle against radical islam, the US could have used Russia's help and gathered intelligence but that ship has sailed.
Damn neo-cons and their satanic ilk.

[North Pole]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Russia outfoxed NATO again

Moscow rejects call for full pullout

By Charles Clover in Moscow

Published: August 20 2008 19:24 | Last updated: August 20 2008 19:24

Russia made clear on Wednesday that it had no intention of bowing to Nato’s calls for a withdrawal to the positions its forces held before the invasion of Georgia.

Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian military’s general staff, said a battalion of about 270 soldiers would occupy a swath of Georgian territory around the breakaway enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the withdrawal of troops from central Georgia.

“This is the buffer zone,” Colonel-General Nogovitsyn told a news conference, pointing at the area delineated on a map by a red line connecting eight Georgian towns around South Ossetia. “It is foreseen in the agreements on the movements of Russian forces, the peacekeepers, in the event of a conflict situation, which gives us the right in certain conditions to move and occupy the borders of the zone.”

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, has pledged to complete the withdrawal from Georgia by Friday, as stipulated in a six-point peace plan. The agreement allows for buffer zones around the two Russian-controlled enclaves but it was not clear whether western governments had realised how large the zone would be.

On the map presented by the defence ministry, the buffer zone stretches from the South Ossetian border almost to the Georgian city of Gori, and from the border of Abkhazia to the Georgian city of Senaki. Western governments have expressed frustration that instead of withdrawing its troops, Russia seems to be digging in at points along its farthest points of advance.

Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Nato secretary-general, has called on Moscow to withdraw its forces in Georgia to positions they occupied on August 6, the day before the confrontation erupted.

It appears that Russia’s “line of responsibility” around the enclaves is consistent with the peace plan, which allows for eight military posts along the boundary of the zone. But it is not clear whether western governments had bargained on such a large “buffer zone” occupied by Russian troops for the foreseeable future.

Thomas Steg, a German government spokesman, expressed Berlin’s frustration at the Russian moves. “We have no firm indications the Russian troop withdrawal has really begun,” he said. It was a “very unsatisfactory situation”.

Col-Gen Nogovitsyn accused the Georgians, including Mikheil Saakashvili, the president, of foot-dragging. “Despite the fact that Mr Saakashvili has signed the six-point plan and agreed to withdraw Georgian forces to their permanent bases, this condition has not been fulfilled,” he said.

When asked how long the deployment in the buffer zone would last, he said: “Time will show. It depends on how the political process develops.” Russia has made no secret of wanting to see Mr Saakashvili step down.

Further increasing the pressure on Mr Saakashvili, the upper and lower houses of Russia’s parliament agreed to convene next week to discuss recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, threatening Tbilisi with de facto break-up of Georgia and possible eventual annexation of the territories by Moscow.

Abkhazia’s parliament passed a resolution on Wednesday asking Russia to recognise its independence.

Already last week, the question of breaking up Georgia was put forward when Mr Medvedev met the leaders of the two breakaway regions and seemed to give the Kremlin’s endorsement of their aspirations of independence from Georgia.

Any resolution adopted by Russia’s parliament would not have any force unless implemented by the Kremlin, but the move seemed designed to gauge the level of public approval.

....

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/116c3516-6edf-11dd-a80a-0000779fd18c.html

Saakashvili loses presence of mind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWlQ_fzECl4

Georgian President Saakashvili eats his tie on TV live (video)

The BBC has recently aired a TV report, in which Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili ate his tie.

The report was about the situation in the area of the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia. The footage showed Saakashvili making a call to a top Western official. It could be clearly seen that Mr. Saakashvili was having a nervous breakdown.

READ MORE -- http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/..._saakashvili-0


YouTube - Saakashvili eats his tie

Russia opens ‘genocide’ criminal case on South Ossetia events

TSKHINVAL, August 14 (Itar-Tass) - The Russian Prosecutor’s Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case over the fact of murder of Russian citizens in South Ossetia under the Criminal Code article “genocide,” Igor Komissarov, an aide to the committee’s chairman, told Itar-Tass.

http://itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=12962157&PageNum=0

YouTube - RT interview with Paul Craig Roberts

[North Pole]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Russians dig in as pullback drags on in Georgia

6 hours ago

SACHKHERE, Georgia (AP) — Russian forces on Wednesday built a sentry post just 30 miles from the Georgian capital, appearing to dig in to positions deep inside Georgia despite pledges to pull back to areas mandated by a cease-fire signed by both countries.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says his troops will complete their pullback by Friday, but few signs of movement have been seen other than the departure of a small contingent that have held the strategically key city of Gori.

A convoy of flatbed trucks carrying badly needed food aid to one of the areas most heavily hit by the fighting was waved through a checkpoint by Russian soldiers.
But conditions throughout much of Georgia remained tense.

Russian soldiers were setting up camp Wednesday in at least three positions in west-central Georgia. Further east, soldiers were building a sentry post of timber on a hill outside Igoeti, 30 miles from Tbilisi and the closest point to the capital where Russian troops have maintained a significant presence.

A top Russian general, meanwhile, said Russia plans to construct nearly a score of checkpoints to be manned by hundreds of soldiers in the so-called "security zone" around the border with South Ossetia.

The sentry, who gave his name only as Corporal Vasily, said 23 Russian tanks, APCS and heavy guns showed up at the base on Tuesday and demanded to be let in. The Georgians refused and the Russians left after a 30-minute standoff but vowed to return after blowing up facilities in the village of Osiauri, he said.

Georgia's Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Russian soldiers destroyed military logistics facilities in Osiauri, but the claim could not immediately be confirmed.

"We're trying not to provoke them; otherwise they'll stay here for five to six months," Vasily said. He said the school itself had no heavy weapons or other significant strategic value, unlike the military base raided by Russians at Senaki, "where they even took the windows off the buildings."

Russia sent its tanks and troops into Georgia after Georgia launched a heavy artillery barrage Aug. 7 on the separatist, pro-Russian province of South Ossetia. Fighting also has flared in a second Georgian breakaway region, Abkhazia.

The short war has driven tensions between Russia and the West to some of their highest levels since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

A cease-fire signed by the presidents of Russia and Georgia calls for Russian forces to pull back to the positions they held before Aug. 7. The cease-fire allows Russia to maintain troops in a zone extending about 4 miles into Georgia along the South Ossetian border.

Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy head of the Russian general staff, told a briefing Wednesday that Russia will build a double line of checkpoints totaling 18 in the zone, with about 270 soldiers manning the front-line posts. He said the security zone would be 25 miles from the strategically key city of Gori, but the city is significantly closer to the zone's presumed boundaries than that.

South Ossetia technically remains a part of Georgia, but Russia has said it will accept whatever South Ossetia's leaders decide about their future status — which is almost certain to be either a declaration of independence or a request to be incorporated into Russia.

Western leaders have stressed Georgia must retain its current borders.

"South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia," President Bush declared Wednesday in Orlando, Fla., referring to Georgia's two Russian-backed separatist regions.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, has said the question of Georgia's territorial integrity is a dead issue, a sign that Moscow could try to absorb the two separatist regions.

A U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee delegation, meanwhile, traveled to Georgia to show solidarity with its government and assess the situation after fierce fighting between Georgian and Russian troops.

"We're not going to let this aggression stand. The world is behind you," U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., told female refugees during a visit to a center for displaced people in the capital, Tbilisi.

"We can't let a bully do this, because if they do it here, they'll do it other places, and if we don't stop it here we'll have to stop it in a much more difficult way," Lieberman added.

Lieberman and South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham met with Georgian officials as well as with the ranking U.S. general on the ground. Graham, speaking to refugees alongside Lieberman, said that the Russians are "not going to prevent the American people from helping you."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDNLWfQWKrQc48pITBUg9KT_6oVwD92M4TVG0

YouTube - RT interview with Paul Craig Roberts

[Armenian]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Armenian, by "capability" do you mean strictly militarily Armenia can't defeat georgia one on one, or because of the politcal factors that would realistically be involved, such as azerbaijan and possibly even turkey coming to georgia's aid? If it is the latter than I agree, it would be a very serious risk for Armenia to take, even with Russian backing.

I was speaking economically and politically, not militarily.

One thing I disagree with though is that this current conflict being close to a possible ww3. I think it would have to be a big miscalculation on the u.s. to fight Russia, especially over georgia, more likely the recent news that poland would host the interceptor missles and Russia's talk of nuking poland and setting up bases in cuba are more likely to trigger a major conflict. At the end of the day the u.s. has more important spheres of influence to manage and really can't afford militarily or economically to fight another war, especially with a nuclear armed country.

I don't use the term, World War Three, lightly. However, look closely at what is transpiring around the world, we are already in the preliminary stages of a world war. There are current and potential hot spots in the Balkans, Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Middle East, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, Northern Africa and South America. Gradually, these crisis areas will get aligned with one geopolitical side or another. We are already seeing this occurring with nations like Belarus, Serbia, Armenia, Syria, Iran and Venezuela that are in the Russian camp; and nations such as Britain, Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, Israel and Gulf States that are in the American camp. A Third World War does not necessarily mean a nuclear exchange between America and Russia. However, the risks for such a thing would definitely exist. Nonetheless, I think we are living in perhaps the most dangerous time period in human history.

Regarding whether or not the US will risk fighting another major war: Sometimes when the geopolitical cards are set in a certain way nations have no choice but to fight for their political and economic survival. For example. The West is increasingly finding itself held hostage to Russia's control over Central Asian and Caspian Sea region gas and oil supplies. Russia currently control about 40 percent of Europe's gas supplies, and this percentage will rise further now that the West's agenda in the Caucasus has been smashed. This is why the West has been trying everything in its power to find alternatives to this Russian control (and this is why the West tried its best to contain Russia throughout the 90s). This is why we are seeing anti-Russian stances in Poland, Ukraine, Balkans, Baltics, Caucasus and Central Asia. Simply put, the West, with its vast wealth and power and high living standards, can not afford giving a nationalist Russia sole control over its economy via energy resources. Thus, the West will eventually attempt everything in its power, including armed confrontation, to attempt to weaken Russia and its regional allies; not doing so means the eventual destruction of the western world as we know it. These geopolitical mechanisms (shifts in geopolitical epicenters) leading towards a major world war are already in place today and they are evolving quite fast.

[skhara]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

percentage will rise further now that the West's agenda in the Caucasus has been smashed.

I don't think the west's agenda has been smashed. It suffered a setback. It would have been smashed if Russia pulled an Iraq style invasion -- but they restrained themselves.

[RSNATION]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Further proof that BTC is unfeasible

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/finance/9714319.asp?scr=1

Kazakhstan considers to divert oil export route from BTC to Russia

Kazakhstan is considering pumping its oil through Russia as an alternative to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline due to increased security concerns over the clashes in the Caucasus, a Turkish daily reported on Thursday.


A high level Kazakh official told Turkish business daily Referans that question marks now hang over the security of the BTC pipeline. "We could reconsider our decisions on sending Kazak oil to the world market. Changing the (export) route is in our agenda now," the official was quoted as saying by Referans.

The export of Kazakh oil through BTC had started in May and efforts are underway to supply the line from the larger Kashagan fields. Kazakh oil is seen as the key in plans to expand the BTC.

An official with the Turkish Energy Ministry said the expansion of the BTC line would only be possible with the supply of Kazakh oil. "There is some 50 million tons of oil there and it is unknown how this will be transported to world markets," the official told Referans.

When it reaches peak production in around 2019, Kashagan will produce up to 1.5 million barrels per day, enabling Kazakhstan to roughly double oil export volume to 120 million tons annually.

The BTC, led by BP, opened in 2006 and can pump up to one million barrels a day of Azeri crude to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, and is the first pipeline to carry large volumes of Caspian oil by-passing Russia.

A new 730-kilometer pipeline running from Kazakhstan's Eskene region to Kuruk is planned to be constructed, and oil will be transported from the Kuruk port to Baku via tanker. Once Kashagan oil is pumped into the BTC through Baku, the amount of oil arriving in Ceyhan is expected to rise to 75 million tons a year, up 50 percent from the current 50 million.

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Interesting.
-------------------------------------------

Ter-Petrosian Blames Georgia For Conflict With Russia

Opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian has issued a blanket endorsement of Russia’s military campaign in neighboring Georgia, saying that it saved the population of South Ossetia from “genocide.”

He also said that Armenia’s government is right to maintain a “positive neutrality” in the conflict which is threatening to trigger a new “cold war” between Russia and the West.

“Nobody can dispute the fact that Georgia provoked the war in order to eliminate the [breakaway] republic of South Ossetia,” Ter-Petrosian said in an interview with the A1Plus.am news service posted late Wednesday. “Nobody can also dispute the fact that with its resolute intervention Russia saved the South Ossetian people from genocide. Had the Russian assistance arrived even six hours late, South Ossetia would not have existed today.”

Ter-Petrosian claimed at the same time that the Georgian government planned to “deport,” rather than “annihilate,” the region’s mostly Ossetian population. “[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili could not fail to realize that an annihilation would not be forgiven by the international community, whereas a deportation could be tolerated in one way or another,” he said.

Thousands of Russian troops backed up by many tanks and armored vehicles dashed into South Ossetia through a mountain tunnel on August 8 just hours after the Georgian army attempted to restore Tbilisi’s control over the region. They went on to occupy large swathes of territory in Georgia proper, forcing tens of thousands of Georgians to flee their homes and effectively paralyzing the country’s economic life. Russia’s counteroffensive has been condemned as disproportionate by the United States and the European Union.

Ter-Petrosian, who served as Armenia’s first president from 1991-1998, dismissed the Western criticism. “I don’t know of a single case in world history where a big power’s riposte to a challenge against it was proportionate,” he said.

Echoing Moscow’s highly negative attitude towards the pro-Western government in Tbilisi, Ter-Petrosian went on to blame Saakashvili for the “national catastrophe” facing Georgia and predicted that Georgians could soon revolt against their president. “I have no doubts that none other the Georgian people will hold their government answerable for all this in the near future,” he said.

The remarks are extraordinary for a man who was known for his pro-Western leanings throughout his presidency and whose political allies repeatedly accused his successor Robert Kocharian of turning Armenia into a Russian “outpost” in the South Caucasus. Ter-Petrosian also won acclaim in the West for his conciliatory views on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenia’s relations with Turkey.

The 63-year-old ex-president has consistently asserted his pro-Russian credentials ever since staging a dramatic political comeback a year ago. He has rejected any parallels between his bid to return to power on the back of a popular movement and the Western-backed “color revolutions” in Georgia and other ex-Soviet states that were opposed by Russia. Ter-Petrosian reportedly met Russian leaders during a confidential visit to Moscow in the run-up to Armenia’s February 19 presidential election.

Ter-Petrosian lambasted Western powers and commended the Kremlin during his massive post-election demonstrations in Yerevan. He reiterated the harsh criticism at a July news conference, alleging that “the West is not interested in having a legitimate and strong government in Armenia.”

While unequivocally backing the Russian military intervention in Georgia, the opposition leader made clear that he essentially agrees with the Armenian government’s neutral stance in the Georgian-Russian war. “In this sense, there is no reason to be unhappy with the position of Armenia’s authorities,” he said.

Still, Ter-Petrosian added that the administration of President Serzh Sarkisian should “draw lessons” from a conflict that has seriously complicated Armenia’s transport communication with the outside world. The most important lesson, according to him, is that Armenia must not be heavily dependent on Georgia in carrying out its foreign trade. “That must force [the authorities] to take positive steps to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and settle Turkish-Armenian relations,” he said.

From http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...EEA67283F7.ASP

[Armenian]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

I don't think the west's agenda has been smashed. It suffered a setback. It would have been smashed if Russia pulled an Iraq style invasion -- but they restrained themselves.

The western agenda in the Caucasus is nothing less than - smashed! It was suffering various setbacks going back several years, ever since Putin started to make some political waves. Now, it's all but history. The BTC pipeline may again operate but it will do so only with the Kremlin's direct blessing. Take note that the "security zone" Russia is planing to setup around the break away republic of Ossetia (according to reports, five miles around the parameter of the territory) essentially intersects the Baku-Batumi railway and the BTC pipeline. Also, Moscow seems to be digging in around the strategically significant port of Poti as well. Of course, Moscow can play some additional geopolitical cards in the region as well, such as Javakhq and Nagorno Karabakh.

Also, the news development above about Kazakhstan stating that it will divert its oil supplies from the BTC route to a Russian route is one of the other predictable repercussions of Moscow's actions for the pipeline in question desperately requires peace and stability to operate effectively.

Moscow would have been utterly foolish to attempt a "Iraq style" invasion of Georgia. Such types of invasions, as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the American invasion of Iraq have proved, actually hurt the invader. Moscow would not have succeeded had it invaded Georgia in full. Russia's campaign in Georgia was flawless, militarily and politically. But Russia can't openly flaunt its prowess nor can it become reckless in its actions on the ground. Don't forget that the major international news agencies such as Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, Agence Francaise and BBC are essentially western controlled propaganda outlets. Thus, the West controls global public perception. Also, international organizations such as the United Nations, OSCE, WTO, IMF and various other international organizations are also western controlled, specifically American controlled. Thus, the West also controls the very mechanisms of international politics and the global economy. Since the Second World War, the West (America in particular) has been the master of the planet. So, bearing this in mind, the Kremlin has to closely watch and measure its rhetoric. That is in essence why we are seeing a complex diplomatic game of good guy/bad guy (Medvedev/Putin) being played by the Kremlin. And that is also why we are seeing contradictory and often times confusing statements coming out of the Kremlin. Have no doubt, this is a high stakes chess game - and Russia is the master of the game in the region.

Nonetheless, the West, as well as Tel Aviv, Ankara and Tbilisi fell right into the Russian trap. This war was what the Kremlin was hoping and praying for and it all worked out exactly the way they planned it - thus far.

Stop being too pessimistic, this is not Yeltsin's Russia anymore.

[Armenian]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

First, he is stating the obvious. I guess one can give him credit for that.
Second, he is probably hitting back at his western "supporters" because abandoned him (like they abandoned Saakashvili) when he needed them the most.
Third, he is smart enough to give the regional superpower some lip service.

Interesting.
-------------------------------------------

Ter-Petrosian Blames Georgia For Conflict With Russia

Opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian has issued a blanket endorsement of Russia’s military campaign in neighboring Georgia, saying that it saved the population of South Ossetia from “genocide.”

[freakyfreaky]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

US State Dept. remarks from Warsaw, Poland 8/20/08. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2008/08/108754.htm



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Neocon replay? Either way, they are likely pleased.