Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

...another article about Javakhk's autonomy:

ARMENIANS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIAN REGION SEEK AUTONOMY

Azg
Aug 20 2008
Armenia

"Georgia's only way is federative country"

The board of non-governmental organizations of Armenians in [Georgia's]
Samtskhe-Javakhk [Samtskhe-Javakhketi] and Kvemo Kartveli has issued a
statement, which says in particular: "It is apparent that the civilian
population suffers most from the attempts to settle inter-ethnic
issues by military methods. We, the public representatives of the
Armenians in Samtskhe-Javakhk and Kvemo Kartveli regions, being
concerned about peace and stability and the future of our country,
believe that in order to restore Georgia's territorial integrity
and sovereignty in a stable and democratic way, in order to settle
the current ethnic problems fairly, Georgia should be a federation
consisting of regional units and central government."

The statement also says that "Samtskhe-Javakhk, with its current
borders, and those neighboring villages of Kvemo Kartveli that are
predominantly populated by Armenians should be reorganized as an
autonomous region within the federative Georgian state, granting it
substantial self-governing rights." The statement then concludes:
"We realize that this statement will not be accepted in the same way
by everybody: there will be attempts to misinterpret and exploit
it. But we, being citizens who are concerned about the fate of
Georgia, had to repeat this truth we have been voicing for years. We
will be led exclusively by the interests of Georgia and its part of
Samtskhe-Javakhk. The memory of those killed in the recent clashes
calls for this, this is what Georgia's future calls for."

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Azeris are upset with their big brother:

AZERI DAILY CRITICIZES TURKEY'S HANDLING OF GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT

BBC Monitoring International Reports
August 21, 2008 Thursday

An Azerbaijani independent daily has described as "insincere" Turkey's
handling of the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

Russian-language Zerkalo said on 21 August that Turkey, which is a
NATO member, is openly aiding Russia. While Turkey backed the NATO
declaration on Georgia, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
failed to condemn Russia's invasion of Georgia during his visit to
Baku on 20 August, Zerkalo said.

The paper also criticized Ankara for its failure to discuss the idea
of a Caucasus stability pact with its NATO allies, including the
USA. The Caucasus Home, suggested by Turkey, is to include Turkey,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia and Russia.

"Apparently, the Turkish leadership has an illusion that the
Kremlin will be reckoning with its opinion in geopolitical issues
in the region," Zerkalo said. "In fact, Erdogan is suggesting that
Azerbaijan toe Russia's line. This is a dangerous path which will
sooner or later make Azerbaijan a vassal of Russia."

The daily said that the reason for Turkey's behaviour could be its
attempt to delay the regional countries' Euroatlantic integration.

"Up until today, Turkey was the 'last barrier' on NATO's southeastern
flank. However, after the regional countries integrate into the
Euroatlantic space, Turkey will lose this significance for the
West. This is where its interests coincide with those of Russia,"
Zerkalo said.

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Azeris are becoming more demoralized:

AZERI PAPERS COMMENT ON RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT'S IMPACT ON KARABAKH PROBLEM

BBC Monitoring International Reports
August 21, 2008 Thursday

An Azerbaijani independent daily has expressed its concern about the
consequences of "the US-Russian fight to put the South Caucasus in
the sphere of their influence".

On 20 August, in a comment on the latest developments in the South
Caucasus region after the Russian-Georgian conflict, Ekspress said: "It
is obscure where the US-Russian standoff is leading the region. One of
them want to take control over our wealth, the other wants to control
our territories as well. Europe comes up as another geopolitical actor
in the region in the person of the third co-chairing country - France."

The paper added that "the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict
by means of such mediating countries conflicting is impossible as
each of them promises us only nasty surprises".

"When Georgia entered South Ossetia, it saw the US support at least
although it was late. If we want to enter Karabakh, all the three
co-chairing countries will stand by Armenia," Ekspress said.

The opposition daily Azadliq quoted independent expert Rasim Musabayov
as saying that everything can be expected from Russia now.

Asked about the possibility of Russia's military incursion into
Azerbaijan, Musabayov said that there was still no reason and need
for that.

"First, we have an opportunity to head off this provocation. Second,
it is impossible to create this artificially," Musabayov said.

The political analyst thinks that as Russia has faced a threat of
losing several partners, it prefers cooperation with Azerbaijan,
the paper said.

In an interview with another opposition daily Yeni Musavat, Musabayov
said that "the reality is that Russia is seeking for a pretext to
destroy Georgia. The world, including the USA, understands that Russia
does not enjoy great power. From this standpoint, the West considers
achieving success as a result of diplomatic pressure. Russia does
not have much room for manoeuvres".

He added that the Russian president and premier did not want to be
isolated from the world and wanted to be represented in G8.

The analyst said that Russia would be expelled from Georgia by force
and added that "the blow of any serious step that the USA takes in
any case will hit Turkey".

However, he added that Turkey is trying to regulate ties with Moscow
so that to avoid risks against itself and Azerbaijan.

Asked if Azerbaijan is Russia's next target in the South Caucasus,
political expert Vafa Quluzada told Azadliq that "if Russia wants
to really take control over the South Caucasus, then the capture
of Azerbaijan will be put on agenda whether you like it or not. But
nobody can say precisely if Russia will attack Azerbaijan or not".

In a comment on the latest developments, the Yeni Azarbaycan newspaper
of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party said that "although it is logical
to think that the Georgian developments will speed up its NATO
membership, one should take into account that a political decision
is also of great importance here... In any case, the resolution of
the conflict or Georgia's NATO membership demands political will. If
this will is not displayed [by the West], Tbilisi will suffer from
its pro-Western policy".

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

after the regional countries integrate into the
Euroatlantic space, Turkey will lose this significance for the
West. This is where its interests coincide with those of Russia,"
Zerkalo said.

That's a big "if", and it's very stupid to assume the Cacausus will be successfully integrated into nato, especially after the recent conflict in the region.

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

That's fine Baron Nakhaga, but don't ever let your guard down.

Karabakh War 'Less Likely After Georgia Debacle'

YEREVAN (RFE/RL)--Georgia's ill-fated bid to win back South Ossetia will discourage Azerbaijani from attempting to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by force, President Serzh Sarkisian said on Thursday.

In a clear reference to Azerbaijan, Sarkisian pointed out that Armenia has repeatedly raised the alarm over “some regional countries” embarking on an “unprecedented” military build-up to prevail in territorial disputes with their neighbors.

“We believe that the military way of resolving conflicts is futile and that the events in South Ossetia will have a sobering impact on those who still have illusions about forcible solutions,” he told visiting senior defense officials from former Soviet republics making up the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The officials were in Yerevan for a regular meeting of the governing body of the six-nation defense pact. Armenia assumed the CSTO's rotating presidency during the meeting.

Sarkisian for the first time publicly drew parallels between the conflicts in Karabakh and South Ossetia and criticized Georgia for its August 8 military assault on the breakaway territory, which triggered a harsh Russian retaliation. “The tragic events in South Ossetia showed that a military response to self-determination movements in the South Caucasus are fraught with serious military and geopolitical consequences,” he said.

They also underscored the need to settle regional ethnic conflicts on the basis of the principle of nations' self-determination, added Sarkisian.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

That's fine Baron Nakhaga, but don't ever let your guard down.

I would say no they see that SO and Abkhazia are getting independence and NK will follow after so they'll make sure to attack. I hope they aren't letting the guard down in Yerevan.

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

In the regnum article it said official Yerevan may recognize Artsakh on the 25th of August. I don't think it will happen that soon or even within this year.

What are your thoughts?

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

In the regnum article it said official Yerevan may recognize Artsakh on the 25th of August. I don't think it will happen that soon or even within this year.

What are your thoughts?

We should constantly threaten the baboonjans with recognition as long as they threaten to use force against NKR.

Once we have a Russian garantee that they will help us, then we could officially recognize NKR.

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Once we have a Russian garantee that they will help us, then we could officially recognize NKR.

With this said, here's an article from azerbaboon press on the topic
-----------------------------
"Forcing Azerbaijan to peace" by Armenia and Russia

August of 2008 may enter the history of Azerbaijan as a period of determination of our country's fate, as there is a real threat to its territorial integrity.

Armenia, which occupied Azerbaijani lands under Russia's support, has passed to an active pressure on our country in the negotiation process on the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh.

This pressure is put again under support of Russia, which, by its occupation of Georgia and open support of separatism, openly demonstrated to Armenians whose side it will take in the Karabakh conflict. In fact, Armenia and Russia are now forcing Azerbaijan to peace, which is profitable for Armenia and Russia, but which is a disgrace for Azerbaijan and dangerous for the further territorial integrity of our country.

After Russia openly occupied Georgia, the bellicose and self-confident statements from Armenian side have become more frequent. Notably, that they are voiced by either representatives of Armenian powers or Armenian opposition.

Thus, the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan also openly demonstrated readiness to bow and scrape before Russia. According to him, no one can challenge the fact that "by its decisive interference Russia has rescued the South Ossetian people from genocide". Naturally, he said nothing of the genocide of Georgians, which is currently continued by Russian troops, Kazak volunteers and Ossetians. This can be understood, as nothing more is expected from a politician, who was leading Armenia in the years, when Russia helped it to occupy Nagorno Karabakh, when the genocide of Azerbaijanis in Khojaly was committed. It is clear that Ter-Petrosyan, who decided to throw off the mask of a pro-western politician, openly flirted with the Kremlin for his political future. He seems to consider that he will not need this mask again and that the future of Armenia and the entire South Caucasus is in the hands of those, who will bow lower before Russia.

The same opinion is also supported by working Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. He said "the tragic events in South Ossetia proved that such conflicts should be settled on the basis of people's free will. Otherwise, we will inevitably witness ethnic separatism and violation of the norms of international humanitarian law".

The subtext of this declaration is clear: "Azerbaijan and the world society should recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh, otherwise, Russia will enter its troops and force Azerbaijan to peace". This is a hidden threat not only to our country but also to the established world order. It is not by accident that this declaration was voiced by a person, who personally took part in the Karabakh war and fired at peaceful Azerbaijani civilians!

After this announcement of Sargsyan and the overall open pro-Russian moods among the political establishment of Armenia, Azerbaijani diplomacy has a good chance to put the equality sign between the Armenian politicians, who rule Armenia, owing to Russia's armed aggression against Azerbaijan and Mr Kokoyti and Baqapsh, who were appointed as leaders of unrecognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia by the Kremlin.

But the most important is that Azerbaijan should clearly understand that Russia may pass from verbal support of Armenia to definite pressure on our country. The declaration of CSTO secretary general Nikolai Bordjuzha, who confirmed that in case of a threat to one of the member-states, the fourth article of the contract will be executed, is one of the components of pressure on Azerbaijan by Russia.

Certainly, most will remain unhidden. For example, direct or indirect threats from Russian side to the BTC pipeline in a form of bombs, which can be dropped by Russian pilots "by accident", are possible. The talks about the US failure to secure Georgia from Russian military aggression are possible during the meeting between the leaderships of Russia and Azerbaijan, which means that we should draw conclusions and agree to recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh. Otherwise, Russian tanks may immediately be directed to Baku, like in case with Tbilisi. In other words, they will "force us to peace" diplomatically.

The only way out is Azerbaijan's soonest integration with NATO. We should respond by force to another force. The only force, which can resist growing appetites of the Kremlin is NATO. They have not left a choice to us. Any delay in this issue equals to death.

Baboon source http://www.today.az/news/politics/47149.html

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

haha, azerbaijan in nato now that would be funny. I can sort of understand turkey, at least they have elections and the people have some choice, but azerbaijan is one of the least democratic nations in the world. However, I wouldn't put it past nato to accept azerbaijan and call it "democratic".