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Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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  • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan





    Last edited by burjuin; 11-20-2015, 12:39 AM.

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    • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

      Նախագահ Սերժ Սարգսյանն աշխատանքային այցով եղել է հյուսիսարեւելյան սահմանագոտում:

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      • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan






        Comment


        • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

          another one by "strafor"
          ------------------
          Joint Armenian-Russian Air Defense System To Put Brakes On Azerbaijan's Claims To Nagorno Karabakh: STRATFOR
          •From: Mihran Keheyian <[email protected]>
          •Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2015 12:07:41 +0000 (UTC)

          JOINT ARMENIAN-RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM TO PUT BRAKES ON AZERBAIJAN'S CLAIMS TO NAGORNO KARABAKH: STRATFOR

          15:23, 20 Nov 2015
          Siranush Ghazanchyan

          Photo: Handout/RIA Novosti/Getty Images

          A joint missile Russian-Armenian air defense system will put the
          brakes on Azerbaijan's goal of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
          adjacent territories, Stratfor said as it analyzed the motives behind
          the Russian-Armenian air defense deal. Excerpts from the analysis
          are provided below.

          On Nov. 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed his government
          to sign an agreement with Armenia to create a joint missile air
          defense system in the region. Not long after, the Armenian government
          confirmed that Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev is expected
          to visit Armenia in late November to officially sign the air defense
          system deal.

          The move, though reminiscent of Moscow's actions in Central Asia and
          Belarus in previous years, comes at a time when Russia is being forced
          to respond to a wider array of challenges than ever before. Threats are
          rising from the Near East, while the West is ramping up its military
          activities in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh moves closer to changing
          its political status.

          And as Russia increases its military presence in Armenia, its
          competition with major regional powers for influence in the South
          Caucasus will intensify, adding to the growing list of issues Russia
          must contend with outside its borders.

          An expanding military presence will put Russia in direct competition
          with Turkey's ambitions in the South Caucasus and Georgia's cooperation
          with NATO and U.S. forces. It will also put the brakes on Azerbaijan's
          goal of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent territories.

          For Armenia's part, the joint air defense deal comes at an opportune
          time. Its government has received mounting criticism from Armenian
          politicians and media amid a growing belief that the country's
          membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
          and its reliance on Russia as a security guarantor have yielded few
          results, particularly as Azerbaijan pursues a more assertive military
          posture around Nagorno-Karabakh.

          Under the new agreement, Armenian air defenses will be strengthened,
          and the country will likely see new air defense equipment, radios,
          radar systems and combat helicopters deployed to its territory.

          Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Emergency
          Situations Armen Yeritsyan also recently announced that the Stepanavan
          Airport, located a mere 20 kilometers (about 12 miles) from the
          Armenia-Georgia border, will host Russian Mi-24 and KA-32 heavy
          helicopters starting in 2016. While these aircraft do not amount
          to a projection of Russian force because of their limited range,
          they do reflect the Kremlin's broader policy of boosting its air
          capabilities in Armenia -- a process that dates back to January 2014,
          when Russia announced that it would strengthen Armenia's Erebuni
          Airport with Mi-24P, Mi-8MT and Mi-8SMV helicopters. Along a similar
          vein, Nagorno-Karabakh's president has said Russian forces may use
          his region's Stepanakert Airport for air operations, an offer that
          may be in response to the recent uptick in air cooperation between
          Armenia and Russia.

          Russia's growing military presence in the South Caucasus will be
          especially worrisome to Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia's longtime
          rivals in the region. The two countries have ramped up their joint
          military exercises with Georgia over the past year, posing a heightened
          threat to Armenia, whose strategic position is already weak. Since
          Turkey already had less ability than Russia to project power into the
          South Caucasus, the Kremlin's recent moves will only increase the
          gap between Russian and Turkish influence there, thus intensifying
          their competition for sway in the wider region.

          Meanwhile, Russia's stronger aerial presence in Armenia could alter
          the military balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

          Azerbaijani politicians have already voiced concerns about the
          air defense agreement, and on Nov. 11 -- the same day Putin gave
          his orders to sign the deal -- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
          visited his country's S-300 anti-aircraft missile brigade, the unit
          responsible for Azerbaijan's aerial defenses.

          The timing of the deal is significant for a number of reasons. First,
          it signals Russia's response to recent developments in the ongoing
          standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. As
          talks progress on Armenia handing over to Azerbaijan several regions
          adjacent to the breakaway territory, Russia will boost its military
          presence in the South Caucasus to ensure the security of Armenia
          and Nagorno-Karabakh and to make any further territorial concessions
          more politically palatable to Yerevan. Second, as Russia becomes more
          involved in the Syrian conflict, Moscow is keen to increase its ability
          to monitor its southern borders -- a goal that a military presence
          in Armenia, with its proximity to the Middle East, is ideally suited
          to achieve.

          https://www.stratfor.com/sample/anal...defense-deal-0

          http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/20...bakh-stratfor/
          BUY "WHO IS MONTE." Proceeds from this film will benefit the families of the fallen soldiers of the Karabagh war. Available at: www.armenianmusic.com

          <<Երբ իրիկունը գլուխներդ դնեք բարծին որ քնանաք, մի քիչ մտածեք ազգի մասին>>
          --ՔԱՋՆ ԱՆԴՐԱՆԻԿ

          Comment


          • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

            A joint missile Russian-Armenian air defense system will put the
            brakes
            on Azerbaijan's goal of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
            adjacent territories
            , Stratfor said as it analyzed the motives behind
            the Russian-Armenian air defense deal. Excerpts from the analysis
            are provided below.
            As talks progress on Armenia handing over to Azerbaijan several regions
            adjacent to the breakaway territory
            , Russia will boost its military
            presence in the South Caucasus to ensure the security of Armenia
            and Nagorno-Karabakh and to make any further territorial concessions
            more politically palatable to Yerevan.
            Strafor needs better writers, even if they aren't knowledgeable on the topic they're writing on. They are constantly contradicting themselves...
            BUY "WHO IS MONTE." Proceeds from this film will benefit the families of the fallen soldiers of the Karabagh war. Available at: www.armenianmusic.com

            <<Երբ իրիկունը գլուխներդ դնեք բարծին որ քնանաք, մի քիչ մտածեք ազգի մասին>>
            --ՔԱՋՆ ԱՆԴՐԱՆԻԿ

            Comment


            • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

              That's interesting. Why does it say "Sargsyan" and "Armenia" on the president's uniform in the English language? Is that some sort of a political message?
              BUY "WHO IS MONTE." Proceeds from this film will benefit the families of the fallen soldiers of the Karabagh war. Available at: www.armenianmusic.com

              <<Երբ իրիկունը գլուխներդ դնեք բարծին որ քնանաք, մի քիչ մտածեք ազգի մասին>>
              --ՔԱՋՆ ԱՆԴՐԱՆԻԿ

              Comment


              • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

                What does everyone on here think about the recent stratfor articles? They seem to be really excited or at least pushing for Armenia to return some territories. I don't think any moves should be made without guaranteeing Artsakh is an independent state recognized by both Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, the EU, and the US.

                Comment


                • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

                  Originally posted by Artsakh View Post
                  another one by "strafor"
                  ------------------
                  Joint Armenian-Russian Air Defense System To Put Brakes On Azerbaijan's Claims To Nagorno Karabakh: STRATFOR
                  In other words, azerbaijan you are screwed for now.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

                    Comment


                    • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

                      Originally posted by HyeSocialist View Post
                      What does everyone on here think about the recent stratfor articles? They seem to be really excited or at least pushing for Armenia to return some territories. I don't think any moves should be made without guaranteeing Artsakh is an independent state recognized by both Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, the EU, and the US.
                      there won't be any territory given away in the near future. I'm not saying this as a diasporan expressing his own opinion, I'm saying this as a person whose spent a lot of time in Artsakh and knows the people's mentality. One needs to understand that there is a separate functioning government (in fact a much better/fairer functioning one) in Artsakh, and a group of people that does view themselves as somewhat different, and doesn't even fully trust the Armenian government, let alone just follow their orders.

                      The mistrust is because that territory was won while Ter-Petrosyan was trying to persuade the Karabakh forces to back down and stop advancing. For two years, those forces moved forward and captured that territory while the central government in Armenia was trying to get them to stop, and couldn't do anything about it. The majority of the casualties of the war 4,000 out 6,000 came from the tiny population Karabakh that 1/20th of Armenia's. And they did this when they were much weaker. What do you think will happen now that its a stable functioning place, and oh ya small detail: a Karabakhtsi is in charge of Armenia?

                      Even if by some impossible set of circumstances the Karabakhtsi led government of Armenia decides to agree to giving away territories, the people of Karabakh who make up some 40-50% of the troops on the fronts, and a lot of the military leadership, will just refuse, a conflict will start, and Armenia will be forces to support their fellow Armenians. That's why the central government of Armenia will never agree to anything like that. But even beyond that, people in Armenia proper will never agree to this. Even if it makes political/economic sense, the person who does this will be killed both figuratively and very possibly literally. We have the words davajan thrown around in our political debate when trying to pass traffic ticket laws, what do you think will happen if someone was giving away territory to turks.

                      I can see Agdam being given away in some final peace solution, because the only thing Agdam offers is separation distance, nothing else, since the valuable defensive mountains end before you get to Agdam. But Azerbaijan will never settle just for that. Plus Armenians have pretty much bulldozed the city down to rubble, and in reality it has zero value for Azerbaijan. But the rest of the territories, it's not a matter of pride, or principal, it's just basic logic that they can't ever be given ever without significantly threatening the viability of the existence of Karabakh, and Armenia as a whole. Hadrut can't be given away because then Azerbaijan will just have to go through Kapan to cut off Armenia's tie to Iran. Same goes for the part of Shahumian we do control adjacent to Vayots Dzor/Syunik. Keljabar for much of the same reason, as well as the fact that much of the source of water for Sevan, i.e the most important source of freshwater for Armenia, comes from the area.
                      <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

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