Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But a fundamental difference that i see, is that Armenia's foreign policy is really Russia's foreign policy in the region. If Armenia wants to do something as drastic as growing it's borders, then it would need Russian backing and approval. I think the Russians will instead take what they want and we might get a slice of it. That's the best we could hope for right now.

Well yes...that's what I said. Russia will take the initiative by forcing its way through Georgia (at which point it would be relatively easy to convince them that a border is necessary).

Another interesting idea I have heard is to offer Russia a military base in NKR. I know it sounds far-fetched at this point, but I don't think that in the long-run Russia prioritizes anything over maintaining influence in the Caucasus. Even the mere gesture of such an offer would do much to help Armenia, coupled with the fact that Azerbaijan is becoming an annoyance to Russia with their Western tendencies and Gabala issue.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

....... what does Russia care if Armenia retakes Nakhchivan and/or advances the frontline?.......

My understanding is that there is a treaty to which among others ( Armenia, Azerbaijan) Turkey and Russia are parties.

That is one of the reasons why Armenian forces were “told” to hold back going into Nakhichevan during the war.

Of coarse treaties can be broken, do not know the wider scope of this treaty and consequences breaking this may result.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

My understanding is that there is a treaty to which among others ( Armenia, Azerbaijan) Turkey and Russia are parties.

That is one of the reasons why Armenian forces were �told� to hold back going into Nakhichevan during the war.

Of coarse treaties can be broken, do not know the wider scope of this treaty and consequences breaking this may result.

Number of things:

1. The Republic of Armenia does not recognize the Treaty of Kars.

2. Turkey is practicing selective implementation. It agrees to protect Nakhchivan, but does not have a consulate in all 3 nations of the South Caucasus (as stipulated by the treaty). By every definition, the document is null and void.

3. Turkey cannot enforce this treaty even if they wanted to. They have arguably the worst-orchestrated foreign policy in the world: Turkey has made enemies of all countries in the region(Armenia, Iran, Greece, Kurdistan, Syria, Israel) but would not DARE act against any of them. What's more, there EU hopes are dead and NATO clearly does not give a sh*t about them. Things are getting so bad that there is talk of sacking Davutoglu.

My point is that the fate of Nakhchivan rests solely in the hands of Russia and Armenia. While it is easy to say that the former decides everything, you need to understand that the relationship is mutually beneficial. If Armenia can make a compelling argument (maybe coupled with concessions such as Russian base in NKR), everything is possible.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani soldier dies

[ 31 Jul 2012 18:35 ]
Baku. Hafiz Heydarov – APA. The Azerbaijani Army lost one more soldier.

APA reports that the incident was recorded in Defense Ministry’s “N” military unit situated in Goranboy region. Soldier Mehdi Bahadir Sultanov died as a result of fire opened from his service submachine gun.

Press service of the Defense Ministry confirmed the fact to APA. The investigation is carried out into the fact.

Sultanov was drafted from Baku’s Sabunchu district.

apa.az

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Number of things:

1. The Republic of Armenia does not recognize the Treaty of Kars.

2. Turkey is practicing selective implementation. It agrees to protect Nakhchivan, but does not have a consulate in all 3 nations of the South Caucasus (as stipulated by the treaty). By every definition, the document is null and void.

3. Turkey cannot enforce this treaty even if they wanted to. They have arguably the worst-orchestrated foreign policy in the world: Turkey has made enemies of all countries in the region(Armenia, Iran, Greece, Kurdistan, Syria, Israel) but would not DARE act against any of them. What's more, there EU hopes are dead and NATO clearly does not give a sh*t about them. Things are getting so bad that there is talk of sacking Davutoglu.

My point is that the fate of Nakhchivan rests solely in the hands of Russia and Armenia. While it is easy to say that the former decides everything, you need to understand that the relationship is mutually beneficial. If Armenia can make a compelling argument (maybe coupled with concessions such as Russian base in NKR), everything is possible.

Nakhchivan is mostly useless to us now. Better things stay as they're until the right time comes. I'd rather be looking at northern artsakh...

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

apa.az

This has to be the second time an Azerbaboon has shot himself this week. I'm starting to get the impression that their guns look something like this:


"Nakhchivan is mostly useless to us now. Better things stay as they're until the right time comes. I'd rather be looking at northern artsakh..."

Not sure what you mean by useless. Nakhchivan, apart from being a part of the Armenian identity, is also VERY fertile. It also provides Azerbaijan with the only border it has to Turkey. Taking it would be a strategic victory. Also, trade with Iran will be exponentially facilitated. I don't know if you have been to Artsakh recently, but you will notice that on the drive from Yerevan, there is an endless line of Iranian trucks.....

By Northern Artsakh, are you referring to Goranboy, Ganja, and Qazakh regions? Those areas do not have Armenians either and are of less historical/cultural significance than Nakhchivan. But ultimately, I agree with you: those lands should be ours.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This has to be the second time an Azerbaboon has shot himself this week. I'm starting to get the impression that their guns look something like this:
[ATTACH]2580[/ATTACH]

"Nakhchivan is mostly useless to us now. Better things stay as they're until the right time comes. I'd rather be looking at northern artsakh..."

Not sure what you mean by useless. Nakhchivan, apart from being a part of the Armenian identity, is also VERY fertile. It also provides Azerbaijan with the only border it has to Turkey. Taking it would be a strategic victory. Also, trade with Iran will be exponentially facilitated. I don't know if you have been to Artsakh recently, but you will notice that on the drive from Yerevan, there is an endless line of Iranian trucks.....

By Northern Artsakh, are you referring to Goranboy, Ganja, and Qazakh regions? Those areas do not have Armenians either and are of less historical/cultural significance than Nakhchivan. But ultimately, I agree with you: those lands should be ours.

North Artsakh is no less armenian or ancient than Nakhchivan, it's just that we lost north artsakh even before nakhchivan, long long ago(think more than half a millennium before). Nakhchivan is fertile, but so is North Artsakh, which also has a strategic position in the caucus in modern day (pipeline, trainline, also the only reliable way NATO ships their stuff through the caspian sea to afghanistan), it's also more beautiful >). It would give us strategic depth against azeris on the right flank, also gets us nearer to Russia than before. If we get north artsakh(including gazakh), georgian influence in the south caucus will be next to nill.

Getting nakhchivan will just piss off the turks and possibly Iran, and Russia. Wont serve us as much in the long term. Also, Once the train line to iran from armenia completes, reliance on trucks and nakhichevan will be reduced significantly.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

North Artsakh is no less armenian or ancient than Nakhchivan, it's just that we lost north artsakh even before nakhchivan, long long ago(think more than half a millennium before). Nakhchivan is fertile, but so is North Artsakh, which also has a strategic position in the caucus in modern day (pipeline, trainline, also the only reliable way NATO ships their stuff through the caspian sea to afghanistan), it's also more beautiful >). It would give us strategic depth against azeris on the right flank, also gets us nearer to Russia than before. If we get north artsakh(including gazakh), georgian influence in the south caucus will be next to nill.

Getting nakhchivan will just piss off the turks and possibly Iran, and Russia. Wont serve us as much in the long term. Also, Once the train line to iran from armenia completes, reliance on trucks and nakhichevan will be reduced significantly.

You're right, it is as Armenian. However, I doubt that any land can be more strategic than Nakhchivan, as it is Azerbaijan's only land access to Turkey (without which it would literally be surrounded by hostile states). And I agree that it is beautiful, I would love to go to Gandzak city

Either through Georgia or Azerbaijan, a border needs to be created. I prefer the former, though, because the population is at least Christian.

Don't see why Iran would have a problem with Armenian-controlled Nakhchivan. They tacitly recognize our claims, as there is an Armenian-dominated sector of Isfahan called "New Dzugha." But then again, Iran was against a possible Armenian takeover in '93....

[Vahram]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

"Another interesting idea I have heard is to offer Russia a military base in NKR. I know it sounds far-fetched at this point, but I don't think that in the long-run Russia prioritizes anything over maintaining influence in the Caucasus. Even the mere gesture of such an offer would do much to help Armenia, coupled with the fact that Azerbaijan is becoming an annoyance to Russia with their Western tendencies and Gabala issue."


You know I like you so much better when you are talking like this bro! You have come around a bit

Now let us start formulating plans both for a land link to Russia and Nakchivan, becuase we all know that it is a pit stop! They are still sitting on our lands fat and happy. This is not going to last for ever, god forbid that day for the toorks!

Getze Hayastan!

[HyeFighter2]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

hahah iam so sorry guys for censura, but i needed to post the picture i made