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Re: Iranian-Armenian relations
Geopolitical symbiosis: Iran, Armenia share goals as per current regional balance of forces
Some experts believe that drastic changes may be expected in the South Caucasus and the broader region and do not exclude shifts in the domestic political landscape in Iran. Others believe that there will be unexpected processes in the Karabakh conflict zone.
In any case, the end of last week was marked by a sort of resurgence in the Armenian-Iranian relations as Yerevan hosted a special envoy of the Iranian president and the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Armenia issued a statement unprecedented by some of its contents.
Official reports on the meetings of the special envoy with the president and the foreign minister of Armenia only say that the sides discussed the course of the implementation of agreements reached during the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Iran in March. However, later the Iranian embassy highlighted the theme of the talks more clearly when it released a statement about the official position of the Islamic state, effectively refuting the statement made earlier by a senior Iranian cleric that during the 1992-1994 war in Karabakh at the informal level Iran supported Azerbaijan.
Experts believe that despite the apparent confrontation between the religious and political leaderships in Iran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have sent his special envoy to Armenia in order to enlist Armenia’s support in the event of possible new developments in domestic matters in Iran, as conflict appears to be emerging in the upper echelons of power in the Islamic Republic.
Today Armenia is all but the sole partner of Iran in the region, and if the Armenian leadership issued harsh criticism of Iran in connection with an Iranian imam’s statements on the Karabakh problem and waived the joint transport and energy projects, then Iran might have found itself in complete isolation -- especially against the background of the rising anti-Iranian hysteria in Azerbaijan in connection with the development of relations between Tehran and Yerevan. Perhaps the Iranian president tried to figure out what position Yerevan might assume in case an “Arab revolution” scenario was implemented in Iran.
Yerevan’s position is very important for Iran and the statement by the Iranian embassy makes it clear that Tehran will not tolerate foreign peacekeeping troops in the Karabakh conflict zone – whether Western, Russian or joint forces.
The statement by the embassy is unprecedented by its contents as it contains no traditional mention of “territorial integrity”, but instead it notes that the Karabakh conflict should be resolved on the basis of respect for the right to self-determination.
Such a change of direction in Iran’s attitude in favor of Armenia rather speaks about Tehran’s grave concern.
And what has changed in the regional situation that has led Iran to making a statement about the possible entry of peacekeeping forces?
It was said in the statement that “Iran, as the only country that shares a common border with the zone of the [Armenian-Azeri] conflict, expresses concern about any provocation in the region and possible escalation of tensions and will not allow such provocations to become an occasion for the emergence of outside forces in the region.”
Some Armenian analysts have also linked the development with the internal political processes in Armenia and the emerging dialogue between the ruling Republican Party and the opposition Armenian National Congress. The Lragir newspaper writes that the leaders of these two forces – President Serzh Sargsyan and top oppositionist Levon Ter-Petrosyan – have nearly identical positions as far as the currently Armenian-controlled territories surrounding the former Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region are concerned. The newspaper claims that the alliance of these two political factions may lead to forcing the Karabakh settlement, which will result in the introduction of an international peacekeeping force to the conflict zone.
NATO and U.S. forces are stationed virtually in all countries bordering on Iran – except for Armenia and Karabakh. And even the Caspian coast of Azerbaijan is protected by U.S. forces. If Western forces get to Karabakh, the circle around Iran will be completed.
Interestingly, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen recently met with the American leadership in Washington and the South Caucasian conflicts were a subject of discussion during that meeting. Iran may have received the information on the outcome of that Washington meeting and that was what made President Ahmadinejad dispatch a special envoy to Yerevan.
Geopolitical symbiosis: Iran, Armenia share goals as per current regional balance of forces
Some experts believe that drastic changes may be expected in the South Caucasus and the broader region and do not exclude shifts in the domestic political landscape in Iran. Others believe that there will be unexpected processes in the Karabakh conflict zone.
In any case, the end of last week was marked by a sort of resurgence in the Armenian-Iranian relations as Yerevan hosted a special envoy of the Iranian president and the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Armenia issued a statement unprecedented by some of its contents.
Official reports on the meetings of the special envoy with the president and the foreign minister of Armenia only say that the sides discussed the course of the implementation of agreements reached during the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Iran in March. However, later the Iranian embassy highlighted the theme of the talks more clearly when it released a statement about the official position of the Islamic state, effectively refuting the statement made earlier by a senior Iranian cleric that during the 1992-1994 war in Karabakh at the informal level Iran supported Azerbaijan.
Experts believe that despite the apparent confrontation between the religious and political leaderships in Iran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have sent his special envoy to Armenia in order to enlist Armenia’s support in the event of possible new developments in domestic matters in Iran, as conflict appears to be emerging in the upper echelons of power in the Islamic Republic.
Today Armenia is all but the sole partner of Iran in the region, and if the Armenian leadership issued harsh criticism of Iran in connection with an Iranian imam’s statements on the Karabakh problem and waived the joint transport and energy projects, then Iran might have found itself in complete isolation -- especially against the background of the rising anti-Iranian hysteria in Azerbaijan in connection with the development of relations between Tehran and Yerevan. Perhaps the Iranian president tried to figure out what position Yerevan might assume in case an “Arab revolution” scenario was implemented in Iran.
Yerevan’s position is very important for Iran and the statement by the Iranian embassy makes it clear that Tehran will not tolerate foreign peacekeeping troops in the Karabakh conflict zone – whether Western, Russian or joint forces.
The statement by the embassy is unprecedented by its contents as it contains no traditional mention of “territorial integrity”, but instead it notes that the Karabakh conflict should be resolved on the basis of respect for the right to self-determination.
Such a change of direction in Iran’s attitude in favor of Armenia rather speaks about Tehran’s grave concern.
And what has changed in the regional situation that has led Iran to making a statement about the possible entry of peacekeeping forces?
It was said in the statement that “Iran, as the only country that shares a common border with the zone of the [Armenian-Azeri] conflict, expresses concern about any provocation in the region and possible escalation of tensions and will not allow such provocations to become an occasion for the emergence of outside forces in the region.”
Some Armenian analysts have also linked the development with the internal political processes in Armenia and the emerging dialogue between the ruling Republican Party and the opposition Armenian National Congress. The Lragir newspaper writes that the leaders of these two forces – President Serzh Sargsyan and top oppositionist Levon Ter-Petrosyan – have nearly identical positions as far as the currently Armenian-controlled territories surrounding the former Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region are concerned. The newspaper claims that the alliance of these two political factions may lead to forcing the Karabakh settlement, which will result in the introduction of an international peacekeeping force to the conflict zone.
NATO and U.S. forces are stationed virtually in all countries bordering on Iran – except for Armenia and Karabakh. And even the Caspian coast of Azerbaijan is protected by U.S. forces. If Western forces get to Karabakh, the circle around Iran will be completed.
Interestingly, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen recently met with the American leadership in Washington and the South Caucasian conflicts were a subject of discussion during that meeting. Iran may have received the information on the outcome of that Washington meeting and that was what made President Ahmadinejad dispatch a special envoy to Yerevan.
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