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Re: Regional geopolitics
GEORGIA AND TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI MILITARY AND POLITICAL ALLIANCE
04.04.2013
Lia Evoyan
Doctoral Candidate at the Institute of Oriental Studies of NAS of
Armenia South Caucasus still remains one of the most important targets
in the foreign policy of Turkey. This is stipulated in the electoral
programme (Secim Beyannamesi) of the Justice and Development Party
issued on June 12, 2011 on the eve of the parliamentary elections,
in which South Caucasus is announced the third in importance among
the neighboring regions1, and promotion of the further development
of the relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia is presented as one of
the priority courses of the foreign policy of JDP2.
It should be mentioned that if according to the Turkish-Azerbaijani
military political agreement signed in 2010 the relations with
Azerbaijan reached their peak the relations between Turkey and Georgia
have not been formalized yet. Nevertheless in a result of consecutive
Turkish-Azerbaijani policy Georgia is gradually being involved in
their military and political alliance.
Georgia is of great strategic importance for Turkey as a transition
country. Territory of Georgia serves as a kind of corridor to
Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries, especially under the closed
Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan borders.
In this aspect the Armenian populated Samtskhe-Javakhq region of
Georgia where Turkey carries out the policy directed to changing
of the demographic situation by contributing to the "repatriation"
of Meskhetian Turks (Ahıska Turkleri) deported in 1944 is of great
importance. It is remarkable that back in 1999 when Georgia became
the member of the CE it undertook such a responsibility and today it
plans to re-populate Meskhetian Turks all over its territory but Turkey
insists on the necessity of their re-population in Samtskhe-Javakhq.
The prospect of mass re-population of Meskhetian Turks in Javakhq
especially in case if they constitute the majority of population will
bring to the creation of an integral Turkic corridor. As a result
the administrative regions of Samtskhe-Javakhq and Qvemo-Qartli
(Azerbaijani populated border territory adjoining Azerbaijan) will
connect Turkey and Azerbaijan by a parallel line3 at the same time
crossing the perpendicular line connecting Armenia in the northern
direction. At the same time it is particularly Samtskhe-Javakhq
region that has been chosen for the initiation of two energy projects
of geo-strategic importance - Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. Today Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway
is being built at this territory; the completion of the construction
had been planned by the end of 2012. By the way due to that project
Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic will set a direct land connection
with Azerbaijan, thus making the strategic partnership of Turkey and
Azerbaijan even easier.
Georgia is of strategic importance for Azerbaijan too, thus being a
link between its strategic ally - Turkey, and West. In the relations
of Azerbaijan and Georgia mutual interest, based on the principle
of recognition of the territorial integrity of each other plays a
key role. De-jure recognition of independence of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia in a result of "Five days war" in 2008 and loss of control
over the Armenian territories unites Georgia and Azerbaijan around one
and the same issue. Georgia and Azerbaijan are also de-jure connected
by the GUAM political block as an alternative to the CIS membership4.
Baku carries out a distinct policy of strengthening and expanding of
its leverages of influence using the fact of alternative cooperation
in definite spheres of economy, particularly, energy.
The strengthening of the leverages is also contributed by the
Azerbaijani community in Georgia which is considered to the first
among the national minorities in Georgia and in particular Azerbaijani
populated region of Qvemo-Qartli (Borcalu), the Azerbaijani community
of which is also supported by Turkey. It should be mentioned that
the Azerbaijanis considered this region (which is bordering in the
east with Azerbaijan, in the south - with Armenia, in the west -
with Javakhq and in the north with the capital city of Georgia)
"motherland of the hero Turks" and call it a "disputable territory
between Azerbaijan and Georgia" which "in the Soviet period was
unfairly given to Georgia"5. In this aspect the expression "Borcali
is the shortest way from Azerbaijan to Turkey", which from time to
time can be seen on the web-site of the Azerbaijani community of
Borcali is remarkable6.
According to the studies carried out in 2008 by the the Department
of Statistics of the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development
of Georgia, by the volume of money turnover of small enterprises
Qvemo-Qartli is the second after Tbilisi; the share of the region
is 13% of the money turnover of the small enterprises of the whole
country7. It should be mentioned that support of the private (i.e.
Azerbaijani) enterprises in Qvemo-Qartli is implemented through a
number of Azerbaijani NGOs financed by Baku.
Thus, due to the consecutive Turkish-Azerbaijani policy Georgia is
gradually being involved in their military and political alliance
which is preconditioned by the high-level cooperation almost in
all the spheres. Thus, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline which is
of great strategic significance in the energy sphere connects the
Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean Sea8 and cooperation on the issue
of Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline unites these three countries. In
2010 the highest leadership of Georgia and Azerbaijan took a decision
of a creation of a common energy system of two countries9. At the same
time Turkish EMCT Pazarlama InÅ~_aat Taahut Ticareti (Ð~UÐ~\СТ)
company together with the Ministry of Energy of Georgia signed
an agreement within the framework of which building of Gubazouli
Hydro-Electric Power Plant was initiated10. On June 29, 2012 the
Ministers of Energy of Turkey and Azerbaijan signed the agreement on
building a new Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) which would cost
$7-8 billion and which would surpassingly export Azerbaijani natural
gas to Europe through the Georgian-Turkish border by connecting it with
Nabucco; nevertheless some problems connected with the realization of
Nabucco programme still question the implementation of Trans-Anatolian
gas pipeline.
It is obvious that the programmes are directed to the neutralization
of the Russian energy monopoly in the South Caucasus which in its turn
will bring to the lowering of not only economic but also political
dependence of the regional states on the Russian Federation11.
In the sphere of trade today Turkey is the priority partner of Georgia,
thus taking the place once occupied by Russia. In 2002-2010 the volume
of commodity turnover between these two states grew considerably,
thus reaching $1 billion instead of previous $24012.
Besides by its investments in Georgia Turkey is the second after the
U.S. The Turkish investments include building (including the airport
terminals), glass manufacturing, telecommunications, and establishment
of different small and medium business enterprises in Georgia.
Currently the biggest investments were made into the realization of
Kars-Tbilisi railway and Rize-Poti optical fiber cable projects13.
Besides, Turkey plans to build near Tbilisi a number of elite suburban
areas14.
After 2010 Tbilisi promoted and initiated the project of the
Georgia-Azerbaijan confederation taking into consideration the
appropriate character of the bilateral relations - from economy to
the foreign policy15.
These are those main preconditions which allow the Ministers of
Foreign Affairs of three countries at the annual protocol meetings
to formalize Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia relations in the form of new
agreements. In particular, on June 8, 2012 in Trabzon the Ministers
of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan signed a
declaration (TRABZON DECLARATION) which taking as a ground respect
for sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful settlement of
disputes, inviolability of internationally recognized borders and
sovereign equality of states and refraining from the threat or use
of force against territorial integrity and political independence of
states, secures the following provisions16:
Continue to support each other's candidacies in international
organizations; Note the importance of the earliest resolution
of the conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh region of the
Republic of Azerbaijan, and the conflict over Abkhazia, Georgia and
Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, Georgia on the basis of respect
for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability
of internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan and Georgia
respectively and emphasize the right to safe and dignified return
of the refugees and internally displaced persons to their places of
origin17; Promote further development of their relations in every
field, especially in the field of trade, energy, transport, finance
and banking, environment by means of joint projects and cooperation
plans and if needed through trilateral cooperation mechanisms; Express
their support for the TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia)
and work towards restoration of the Great Silk Road and the full-scale
functioning of the Euro-Asian Transport Corridor as well as other
integrated trilateral transport projects consisting of highways
and railways in order to create trilateral economic integration and
contribute to socio-economic development; underline the importance
of completion in due times of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project;
Acknowledge the construction of the new Baku International Sea Trade
Port which will become an important gate on the East-West Transport
corridor after the completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project.
It should be mentioned that the joint expert group initiated the
elaboration of the programme for 2013-2015 and works in order to submit
them for signing of the three ministers18. The second meeting of the
Ministers of Foreign Affairs of this three coutnries took place in
the second half of 2012 in Georgia and the third meeting will be held
in the first half of 2013 in Azerbaijan19.
The Trabzon declaration is the first official public document signed
by Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia which is equal by its content to
the military-strategic document.
In consequence of the parliamentary elections held on October 1, 2012
in Georgia "Georgian Dream" block leaded by the representative of the
international oligarchy billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili celebrated
the victory. He assumed the office of a prime-minister which has
become a priority post after the recent constitutional changes. Such
a course of events revealed a number of issues connected with further
political position of Georgia. It is referred to the prospects of
improving relations between Georgia and Russia and reconsidering of
the relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. It should be mentioned that
the policy carried out by Bidzina Ivanishvili and his government yet
provides no grounds for seeing any essential changes in the issue of
Georgia's involvement in Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance.
Thus on December 26, 2012 B.Ivanishvili stated within the framework
of his official visit to Baku: "I decided to first visit Azerbaijan
because historically we have friendly relations. Our goal is to deepen
these relations, to take them to the level when in the international
instances our common positions are always taken into consideration. We
will do our best in order to strengthen our relations"20.
The range of the question of the Georgian-Azerbaijani cooperation
in different spheres is remarkable - active construction of highways
from Azerbaijan to Georgia, Azerbaijani project of fertilizer plant
building in Georgia, intention of Georgia to increase the volume of
electricity bought from Azerbaijan21, issues of broadening of the
frames of "Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey "Energy Bridge" project and
Azerbaijani electricity export to Greece and Bulgaria through the
territories of Georgia and Turkey22, deepening of the cooperation
in the military sphere23. The strategic significance and character
of the aforementioned goals can easily be seen. As for the possible
improvement of Russia-Georgia relations, it should be mentioned that
in this aspect no considerable changes can be observed yet.
Thus, the facts prove that the new elite which assumed the office
in Tbilisi on practice continues the process of deepening of
Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia relations.
On this assumption the following conclusions can be drawn:
a. Turkey and Azerbaijan carry out consecutive and committed policy
of creating the political and economic leverages in the relations
with Georgia;
b. Today Georgia continues the way to the military and political
alliance with Turkey and Azerbaijan;
c. In case if the Turkic population dominates of Samtskhe-Javakhq
Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will set a control in Samtskhe-Javakhq
and Qvemo-Qartli.
Taking as a basis all aforementioned one can drive to the following
conclusion: in a result of the current processes Georgia maximum in
a mid-term perspective will appear in the zone of a full influence
and control of Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance. There can be only one
conclusion - such a course of events is a threat to the national
security of Armenia.
GEORGIA AND TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI MILITARY AND POLITICAL ALLIANCE
04.04.2013
Lia Evoyan
Doctoral Candidate at the Institute of Oriental Studies of NAS of
Armenia South Caucasus still remains one of the most important targets
in the foreign policy of Turkey. This is stipulated in the electoral
programme (Secim Beyannamesi) of the Justice and Development Party
issued on June 12, 2011 on the eve of the parliamentary elections,
in which South Caucasus is announced the third in importance among
the neighboring regions1, and promotion of the further development
of the relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia is presented as one of
the priority courses of the foreign policy of JDP2.
It should be mentioned that if according to the Turkish-Azerbaijani
military political agreement signed in 2010 the relations with
Azerbaijan reached their peak the relations between Turkey and Georgia
have not been formalized yet. Nevertheless in a result of consecutive
Turkish-Azerbaijani policy Georgia is gradually being involved in
their military and political alliance.
Georgia is of great strategic importance for Turkey as a transition
country. Territory of Georgia serves as a kind of corridor to
Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries, especially under the closed
Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan borders.
In this aspect the Armenian populated Samtskhe-Javakhq region of
Georgia where Turkey carries out the policy directed to changing
of the demographic situation by contributing to the "repatriation"
of Meskhetian Turks (Ahıska Turkleri) deported in 1944 is of great
importance. It is remarkable that back in 1999 when Georgia became
the member of the CE it undertook such a responsibility and today it
plans to re-populate Meskhetian Turks all over its territory but Turkey
insists on the necessity of their re-population in Samtskhe-Javakhq.
The prospect of mass re-population of Meskhetian Turks in Javakhq
especially in case if they constitute the majority of population will
bring to the creation of an integral Turkic corridor. As a result
the administrative regions of Samtskhe-Javakhq and Qvemo-Qartli
(Azerbaijani populated border territory adjoining Azerbaijan) will
connect Turkey and Azerbaijan by a parallel line3 at the same time
crossing the perpendicular line connecting Armenia in the northern
direction. At the same time it is particularly Samtskhe-Javakhq
region that has been chosen for the initiation of two energy projects
of geo-strategic importance - Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. Today Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway
is being built at this territory; the completion of the construction
had been planned by the end of 2012. By the way due to that project
Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic will set a direct land connection
with Azerbaijan, thus making the strategic partnership of Turkey and
Azerbaijan even easier.
Georgia is of strategic importance for Azerbaijan too, thus being a
link between its strategic ally - Turkey, and West. In the relations
of Azerbaijan and Georgia mutual interest, based on the principle
of recognition of the territorial integrity of each other plays a
key role. De-jure recognition of independence of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia in a result of "Five days war" in 2008 and loss of control
over the Armenian territories unites Georgia and Azerbaijan around one
and the same issue. Georgia and Azerbaijan are also de-jure connected
by the GUAM political block as an alternative to the CIS membership4.
Baku carries out a distinct policy of strengthening and expanding of
its leverages of influence using the fact of alternative cooperation
in definite spheres of economy, particularly, energy.
The strengthening of the leverages is also contributed by the
Azerbaijani community in Georgia which is considered to the first
among the national minorities in Georgia and in particular Azerbaijani
populated region of Qvemo-Qartli (Borcalu), the Azerbaijani community
of which is also supported by Turkey. It should be mentioned that
the Azerbaijanis considered this region (which is bordering in the
east with Azerbaijan, in the south - with Armenia, in the west -
with Javakhq and in the north with the capital city of Georgia)
"motherland of the hero Turks" and call it a "disputable territory
between Azerbaijan and Georgia" which "in the Soviet period was
unfairly given to Georgia"5. In this aspect the expression "Borcali
is the shortest way from Azerbaijan to Turkey", which from time to
time can be seen on the web-site of the Azerbaijani community of
Borcali is remarkable6.
According to the studies carried out in 2008 by the the Department
of Statistics of the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development
of Georgia, by the volume of money turnover of small enterprises
Qvemo-Qartli is the second after Tbilisi; the share of the region
is 13% of the money turnover of the small enterprises of the whole
country7. It should be mentioned that support of the private (i.e.
Azerbaijani) enterprises in Qvemo-Qartli is implemented through a
number of Azerbaijani NGOs financed by Baku.
Thus, due to the consecutive Turkish-Azerbaijani policy Georgia is
gradually being involved in their military and political alliance
which is preconditioned by the high-level cooperation almost in
all the spheres. Thus, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline which is
of great strategic significance in the energy sphere connects the
Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean Sea8 and cooperation on the issue
of Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline unites these three countries. In
2010 the highest leadership of Georgia and Azerbaijan took a decision
of a creation of a common energy system of two countries9. At the same
time Turkish EMCT Pazarlama InÅ~_aat Taahut Ticareti (Ð~UÐ~\СТ)
company together with the Ministry of Energy of Georgia signed
an agreement within the framework of which building of Gubazouli
Hydro-Electric Power Plant was initiated10. On June 29, 2012 the
Ministers of Energy of Turkey and Azerbaijan signed the agreement on
building a new Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) which would cost
$7-8 billion and which would surpassingly export Azerbaijani natural
gas to Europe through the Georgian-Turkish border by connecting it with
Nabucco; nevertheless some problems connected with the realization of
Nabucco programme still question the implementation of Trans-Anatolian
gas pipeline.
It is obvious that the programmes are directed to the neutralization
of the Russian energy monopoly in the South Caucasus which in its turn
will bring to the lowering of not only economic but also political
dependence of the regional states on the Russian Federation11.
In the sphere of trade today Turkey is the priority partner of Georgia,
thus taking the place once occupied by Russia. In 2002-2010 the volume
of commodity turnover between these two states grew considerably,
thus reaching $1 billion instead of previous $24012.
Besides by its investments in Georgia Turkey is the second after the
U.S. The Turkish investments include building (including the airport
terminals), glass manufacturing, telecommunications, and establishment
of different small and medium business enterprises in Georgia.
Currently the biggest investments were made into the realization of
Kars-Tbilisi railway and Rize-Poti optical fiber cable projects13.
Besides, Turkey plans to build near Tbilisi a number of elite suburban
areas14.
After 2010 Tbilisi promoted and initiated the project of the
Georgia-Azerbaijan confederation taking into consideration the
appropriate character of the bilateral relations - from economy to
the foreign policy15.
These are those main preconditions which allow the Ministers of
Foreign Affairs of three countries at the annual protocol meetings
to formalize Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia relations in the form of new
agreements. In particular, on June 8, 2012 in Trabzon the Ministers
of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan signed a
declaration (TRABZON DECLARATION) which taking as a ground respect
for sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful settlement of
disputes, inviolability of internationally recognized borders and
sovereign equality of states and refraining from the threat or use
of force against territorial integrity and political independence of
states, secures the following provisions16:
Continue to support each other's candidacies in international
organizations; Note the importance of the earliest resolution
of the conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh region of the
Republic of Azerbaijan, and the conflict over Abkhazia, Georgia and
Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, Georgia on the basis of respect
for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability
of internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan and Georgia
respectively and emphasize the right to safe and dignified return
of the refugees and internally displaced persons to their places of
origin17; Promote further development of their relations in every
field, especially in the field of trade, energy, transport, finance
and banking, environment by means of joint projects and cooperation
plans and if needed through trilateral cooperation mechanisms; Express
their support for the TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia)
and work towards restoration of the Great Silk Road and the full-scale
functioning of the Euro-Asian Transport Corridor as well as other
integrated trilateral transport projects consisting of highways
and railways in order to create trilateral economic integration and
contribute to socio-economic development; underline the importance
of completion in due times of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project;
Acknowledge the construction of the new Baku International Sea Trade
Port which will become an important gate on the East-West Transport
corridor after the completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project.
It should be mentioned that the joint expert group initiated the
elaboration of the programme for 2013-2015 and works in order to submit
them for signing of the three ministers18. The second meeting of the
Ministers of Foreign Affairs of this three coutnries took place in
the second half of 2012 in Georgia and the third meeting will be held
in the first half of 2013 in Azerbaijan19.
The Trabzon declaration is the first official public document signed
by Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia which is equal by its content to
the military-strategic document.
In consequence of the parliamentary elections held on October 1, 2012
in Georgia "Georgian Dream" block leaded by the representative of the
international oligarchy billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili celebrated
the victory. He assumed the office of a prime-minister which has
become a priority post after the recent constitutional changes. Such
a course of events revealed a number of issues connected with further
political position of Georgia. It is referred to the prospects of
improving relations between Georgia and Russia and reconsidering of
the relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. It should be mentioned that
the policy carried out by Bidzina Ivanishvili and his government yet
provides no grounds for seeing any essential changes in the issue of
Georgia's involvement in Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance.
Thus on December 26, 2012 B.Ivanishvili stated within the framework
of his official visit to Baku: "I decided to first visit Azerbaijan
because historically we have friendly relations. Our goal is to deepen
these relations, to take them to the level when in the international
instances our common positions are always taken into consideration. We
will do our best in order to strengthen our relations"20.
The range of the question of the Georgian-Azerbaijani cooperation
in different spheres is remarkable - active construction of highways
from Azerbaijan to Georgia, Azerbaijani project of fertilizer plant
building in Georgia, intention of Georgia to increase the volume of
electricity bought from Azerbaijan21, issues of broadening of the
frames of "Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey "Energy Bridge" project and
Azerbaijani electricity export to Greece and Bulgaria through the
territories of Georgia and Turkey22, deepening of the cooperation
in the military sphere23. The strategic significance and character
of the aforementioned goals can easily be seen. As for the possible
improvement of Russia-Georgia relations, it should be mentioned that
in this aspect no considerable changes can be observed yet.
Thus, the facts prove that the new elite which assumed the office
in Tbilisi on practice continues the process of deepening of
Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia relations.
On this assumption the following conclusions can be drawn:
a. Turkey and Azerbaijan carry out consecutive and committed policy
of creating the political and economic leverages in the relations
with Georgia;
b. Today Georgia continues the way to the military and political
alliance with Turkey and Azerbaijan;
c. In case if the Turkic population dominates of Samtskhe-Javakhq
Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will set a control in Samtskhe-Javakhq
and Qvemo-Qartli.
Taking as a basis all aforementioned one can drive to the following
conclusion: in a result of the current processes Georgia maximum in
a mid-term perspective will appear in the zone of a full influence
and control of Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance. There can be only one
conclusion - such a course of events is a threat to the national
security of Armenia.
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