Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Latest battlefield update from northern Aleppo – map

By Leith Aboufadel
-
12/02/2018


Rate Article (4 / 1)

BEIRUT, LEBANON (11:10 P.M.) – The Turkish-backed rebels have been on a roll in the Afrin region recently, capturing several areas from the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) and their allies.

Backed by the relentless airstrikes of the Turkish Air Force, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and their allies managed to score a big advance along the Afrin-Idlib axis this past weekend.

This advance would pave the way for Monday’s success, as the Turkish-backed rebels were able to build a comfortable buffer-zone around the Jandaris area in the Afrin region’s southern countryside.

Meanwhile, in northwestern Afrin, the Turkish-backed rebels have once again tried to infiltrate the YPG’s positions in Rajou; however, they have failed to make any headway in this large district.

According to pro-YPG activists, their forces were able to foil all of the attempted advances by the Turkish-backed rebels in Rajou the Rajou District.

In response to the rebel failures in Rajou, the Turkish Air Force has unleashed a powerful attack on the district in a bid to weaken the YPG’s defenses.

[Azad]

"BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union’s executive on Monday called on Turkey to “refrain from any actions that might damage good neighborly relations” after Cyprus, a member of the bloc, accused the Turkish military of obstructing a ship exploring for gas."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyprus-natgas-turkey-eu/eu-tells-turkey-to-avoid-damaging-actions-after-cyprus-ship-incident-idUSKBN1FW19O

^^^ Useless Brussels and their knee pads

[Hakob]

When will erdogan’s bubble burst?
Problem is, he made his philosophy so spread in turkey, that all country has to suffer for Turks to become civilized.
Its not pre WW1. Do they realize it before going for conquests?

[Azad]

"Turkey tells Greece it owns eastern Aegean shelf

Turkey is ready to take “all necessary measures” to protect the rights of Turkish Cypriots and Turkey’s ownership of the continental shelf in the eastern Aegean,

" Standoff on high seas: Turkish warships block Cypriot offshore drilling

Cyprus has accused Turkey of obstructing a drilling rig from reaching an exploration area in the east Mediterranean. The Italian energy firm Eni was set to undertake exploratory drilling for natural gas.

The Saipem 12000 drill ship was en route to an area south-east of Cyprus when it was stopped by Turkish warships and told to go no further due to military activities in the destination area, according to a spokesman for Eni quoted by Reuters."

https://www.rt.com/business/418539-turkey-slams-cyprus-gas-search/

[Vrej1915]

Turkish Army suffers highest number of casualties in northern Syria on Saturday

By Leith Aboufadel
-
11/02/2018


Rate Article (5 / 2)

BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:55 A.M.) – The Turkish Army’s suffered their highest number of casualties in northern Syria on Saturday, as they continued their three week long offensive against the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG).

According to the Turkish General Staff, at least eleven soldiers were killed during the Turkish Army’s operations in the Afrin region of northern Aleppo.

The eleven Turkish soldiers were killed while aiding their allies from the Euphrates Shield in the Rajou and Bulbul districts of Afrin, which are currently contested.

In a separate incident on Saturday, a Turkish military chopper was shot down by the YPG as it was finishing up a mission in the Afrin region.

As a result of this attack by the YPG in northern Afrin on Saturday, two Turkish military personnel were killed after their chopper crashed.

[Vrej1915]

[Vrej1915]

Just a moment of reflexion:

There are dozens of supposedly state of the art russian interceptors based in Syria, S 400, Pantzir, ....
Russia is supposedly the ally of Syria.
Yet hundreds of Israeli jets have visited Damascus with russian dapro...

Not to talk of traditional turko-russian love/hate trades in Kurdish affairs.
That chapter is well known, at least to us.

[Vrej1915]

Breaking: Israeli pilot shot down by Syrian air defenses dies of injuries in hospital

By Andrew Illingworth
-
10/02/2018



BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:55 P.M.) – An Israeli pilot whose warplane was shot down by Syrian air defense forces on Saturday morning has died from injuries sustained during the engagement.

On Saturday, a major engagement between the Israeli Air Force and Syrian Air Defence Force took place over the occupied Golan Region, south Lebanon and the west Damascus region.

In a battle that lasted for hours, Israeli warplanes and Syrian anti-aircraft systems traded missile fire – literally dozens of such munitions were loosed – as the latter launched a general attack against ‘Iranian and regime’ bases west of Damascus.

At the beginning of the battle, Syrian surface-to-air missile systems downed an Israeli F-16I fighter jet over the occupied Golan Heights (described as ‘northern Israel’ by Israeli sources).

Both crew members reportedly ejected – the weapons operator with light injuries and the pilot with ‘severe’ injuries. Only video evidence exists for the pilot ejecting.

According to emerging reports, the Israeli pilot with serious injuries has died in hospital. No further details were given.

Updates to follow.

[Vrej1915]

Israeli air strikes against Syria 'biggest since 1982'

What happened?
Israel says it has inflicted huge damage on Syrian air defences after one of its fighter jets was brought down during a raid over Syria.

The response was the "most significant attack" of its kind against Syria since the 1982 Lebanon war, said senior Israeli air force general Tomer Bar.

The F-16 jet went down during a mission that followed an Iranian drone launch into Israeli territory, Israel says.

The two pilots parachuted to safety before the crash in northern Israel.

Israel says it responded with a second wave of strikes on both Syrian and Iranian military targets operating inside Syria.

Israeli air strikes in Syria are not unusual, BBC Middle East correspondent Tom Bateman says, but the loss of an Israeli fighter jet marks a serious escalation.

• Israel 'strikes Damascus military complex'
• Why is there a war in Syria?

Image copyrightEPA Image captionAnti-aircraft fire smoke over the Syrian-Israeli border in the Golan Heights
Later on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting with his military chiefs. He said Israel wanted peace but would defend itself "against any attack against us or any attempt by Iran to establish itself against us in Syria".

In other developments:

• A Turkish helicopter was shot down as the country continued its offensive against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria. Two soldiers on board were killed, the Turkish military says
• UN Human Rights Commissioner Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein said the past week was one of the bloodiest in Syria since the conflict began in 2011 - with at least 277 civilian deaths reported

How did events unfold on Saturday morning?

Israel's military says one of its combat helicopters downed an Iranian drone infiltrating Israel. It tweeted footage of the incident.
Skip Twitter post by @LTCJonathan
End of Twitter post by @LTCJonathan

Israeli aircraft then attacked Syrian and "Iranian targets in Syria", the military says.

Syria's state media say air defences opened fire in response to an Israeli attack on a military base, hitting more than one plane.

The damaged F-16 came down in an empty field near the town of Harduf in northern Israel. Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES Image captionThe fighter jet was carrying out strikes on Iranian targets in Syria, the Israelis say (file picture)
It is unclear how exactly the plane was brought down. Gen Bar said it faced massive anti-aircraft fire, forcing the two pilots to eject.

He said the crew did not report being hit before abandoning the aircraft.

They were taken to hospital, one of them "severely injured", the Israeli military said. What did Israel do next?

Israel launched a second wave of strikes in Syria. Eight of the Syrian targets belonged to the fourth Syrian division near Damascus, IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said.

All the Israeli aircraft from this sortie returned safely.

"We are not looking to escalate the situation," he added.

Syria and its ally Iran deny that the drone entered Israel. Russia expressed "serious concern" over the Israeli air strikes and called for all sides to show restraint. What is the Iranian presence in Syria?

Iran is Israel's arch-enemy, and Iranian troops have been fighting rebel groups since 2011.

Tehran has sent military advisers, volunteer militias and, reportedly, hundreds of fighters from its Quds Force, the overseas arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

It is also believed to have supplied thousands of tonnes of weaponry and munitions to help President Bashar al-Assad's forces and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, which is fighting on Syria's side.

Tehran has faced accusations that it is seeking to establish not just an arc of influence but a logistical land supply line from Iran through to Hezbollah in Lebanon. A powerful new element

Analysis by BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus

For years Israel has been striking at weapons stores and other facilities in Syria with a single goal - to disrupt and, as far as possible, to prevent advanced Iranian missiles being delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Syria has often been the conduit for these shipments, but the changing balance of power there, with the survival of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad bolstered by Iranian help, has introduced a powerful new element - a direct Iranian role in the crisis.

A more confident Iran is alleged by Israel to be setting up bases in Syria(whether for its own or its proxy Shia Muslim militia forces is unclear).

But it is also alleged to be developing missile factories, both there and in Lebanon, to make the supply lines to Hezbollah less vulnerable.

Israel's campaign to disrupt missile supplies is becoming ever more complex.

And Iran risks becoming a direct actor in this conflict, ever closer to Israel's own borders.

[Vrej1915]

Bataille d'Afrine : «Erdogan installe des sanctuaires djihadistes à ses portes»

• Par Hadrien Desuin
• Publié le 31/01/2018

• 

FIGAROVOX/ANALYSE - Hadrien Desuin s'inquiète de l'intervention truque, principalement par djihadistes interposés, à l'encontre des Kurdes syriens assiégés à Afrine. Selon lui, il est urgent que l'OTAN condamne le double-jeu que mène Erdogan à ses frontières.

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Spécialiste des questions internationales et de défense, Hadrien Desuin est essayiste. Il vient de publier La France atlantiste ou le naufrage de la diplomatie (éd. du Cerf, 2017).

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En Irak comme en Syrie, les Kurdes peuvent être amers. En 2014, alors que les nations occidentales laissent Bagdad et Damas à la merci de Daech, le peuple Kurde résiste. Au point que Kobané devint le «Stalingrad de l'État islamique». La bataille fut finalement remportée avec l'appui aérien de la coalition américaine, mais le soutien a été tardif.

Depuis que le Califat s'est effondré, la Turquie a repris sa politique du pire.

Si elle marque le début de la fin pour les troupes d'Al Bagdadi, Kobané dévoile au monde entier le double jeu de l'armée turque. Erdogan a toujours préféré les djihadistes sunnites aux communalistes kurdes, proches du PKK. Sous pression, la Turquie finit par fermer sa frontière avec le califat d'Al Bagdadi... un an plus tard. C'est un tournant. Les Kurdes peuvent reprendre l'offensive vers le sud contre Daech. Ils prennent Raqqa à l'été 2017. Aujourd'hui, ils sont abandonnés.

Depuis que le Califat s'est effondré, la Turquie a repris sa politique du pire. Après avoir conquis Jarabulus et Al Bab, c'est au canton kurde d'Afrine de subir une forme de siège. Les Turcs se retournent contre les Kurdes syriens avec l'aide des katibas djihadistes parfois appelés «rebelles modérés» ou «armée syrienne libre». Comme si Erdogan voulait se faire calife à la place du calife. Ces milices révèlent l'aspect profondément déstabilisateur de la diplomatie turque dans la région, à Idlib notamment. Sous couvert de s'assurer une bande frontalière vierge de toute présence kurde, Ankara a installé des sanctuaires djihadistes à ses portes. Le nettoyage anti-kurde a passé la frontière turque et déborde en Syrie. Désormais installé au nord de la Syrie, Erdogan n'a pas l'intention de renoncer à ses conquêtes.

En théorie, la bataille d'Afrine pourrait devenir le Kobané de l'armée turque. Les Kurdes n'ont le choix qu'entre la victoire et la mort. Ils sont prêts à se sacrifier pour un territoire qu'ils défendent avec succès depuis plus de six ans. Déjà, l'armée turque déplore des pertes. Elle préfère envoyer en première ligne les troupes djihadistes qu'elle appuie. Depuis deux semaines, le canton d'Afrine est pilonné mais ne s'effondre pas. Il recule mais résiste. Sans appui aérien, les Kurdes syriens sont toutefois condamnés. Si le ciel d'Afrine n'est pas fermé aux avions turcs, Afrine sera le tombeau des Kurdes.

Si les Kurdes veulent sauver Afrine, ils doivent faire un geste en direction de Moscou et de Damas.

Pour le moment, la coalition occidentale et sa rivale russo-irano-syrienne laissent l'aviation turque bombarder. Comme si Erdogan avait obtenu l'aval tacite de Moscou et de Washington pour frapper. Les soldats russes se sont retirés d'Afrine juste avant l'offensive turque. L'armée syrienne ne bouge pas, trop occupée à chasser les filiales d'Al Qaida de la province d'Idlib, un territoire autrement plus stratégique et central que le canton frontalier d'Afrine. Washington et Paris protestent. Sans plus. «Macron aurait dû faire davantage pression et donner un ultimatum de 24h à Erdogan pour se retirer» regrette Patrice Franceschi, écrivain et militant de la cause kurde depuis des années. Tout le monde a peur de se brouiller avec la Turquie. Cette dernière, du fait de sa position centrale dans le conflit, peut faire pencher le rapport de force entre Russes et Américains d'un coté ou de l'autre.

Le Pentagone a promis de continuer à financer 30 000 soldats FDS (la coalition arabo-kurde menée par les YPG). À force de descendre vers le sud, le long de l'Euphrate, les Kurdes syriens ont vaincu Daech mais se sont frottés aux forces alliées de Bachar Al Assad dans les régions arabes de Der Ez Zor et Raqqa. Désireux de peser dans le règlement politique de la Syrie, les Russes ont trouvé un accord avec les Turcs sur le dos des FDS. Idlib contre Afrine.

Si les Kurdes veulent sauver Afrine, ils doivent faire un geste en direction de Moscou et de Damas. La ville de Raqqa est une carte dans leur jeu qu'ils pourraient tout à fait monnayer. Une négociation qui pourrait forcer les États-Unis à montrer ses muscles envers son partenaire de l'OTAN: la dangereuse et intraitable Turquie d'Erdogan.