Politics in Hayastan

[Haykakan]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

so what you are saying is that it has indeed been a decent system, but we should trust you that it is going to get bad?
I didn't say those are the only two options. I mentioned communism because from your previous comments you seem to have an affection for it.

I do not want you to trust me. I want you to learn how to gather good information and make good decisions. I will tell you what I tell my students..do not trust me, instead learn how to use your brain so that you cannot be manipulated as much. Niether capitalism nor communism exist anywhere exclusively. USA is about the most capitalistic of countries yet even here you will see plenty of socialism as well. Non of these isms can exist exclusively in any functioning society because they are all deeply flawed on their own. Making decisions is not about affection unless you are talking about a mate or something else emotionally based. Making decisions is about being informed (not to be confused with being misinformed) and using logic(something humans are not too good at). Unfortunately getting good information is increasingly difficult and Americans have been drifting far and away from logic for a long time now and this is done by design and is no accident.

[londontsi]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

Five ways to stay in power in Central Asia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31705746

Nursultan Nazarbayev (L) and Islam Karimov (R) have between them been in power for some 50 years

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are both expected to re-elect their leaders this spring.
Few will be surprised if Nursultan Nazarbayev keeps his job in Kazakhstan - though he's yet to announce he is running again - or if Islam Karimov stays president in Uzbekistan.

Both have been in charge since Soviet times and are two of the longest serving leaders in the world. Here are five tried and tested tactics they have used to keep themselves in power.

1. Hold a referendum
People walk in front of a giant poster of Uzbek President Islam Karimov in Tashkent, 24 December 2007. The electorate are not presented with much of a choice

Often, instead of an election, a referendum is organised to extend the president's term. This was particularly popular in the 1990s when post-Soviet Central Asia was going through a painful transition and growing poverty, high unemployment and a declining economy meant holding an open election could have allowed an opposition to capitalise on public grievances.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan held referenda in 1995, which extended both presidents' terms until 2000. Another referendum in 2002 allowed Islam Karimov to rule Uzbekistan for an extra two years until 2007.

Since the idea of a referendum draws considerable criticism from the international community, the incumbent now tries to avoid it.

2. Elastic elections

If elections do take place in Central Asia, they are not necessarily on schedule.

This is the second time Uzbekistan has held a presidential election long after its leader's term has expired. This time, it was delayed to avoid a clash with parliamentary elections in December 2014 and will now take place on 29 March.

Calling elections early, as has been done three times in Kazakhstan, allows the leader to catch his opponents off guard - the main opposition boycotted the early elections in 2011, saying they had had little time to prepare.

Bringing the schedule forward can also be useful if difficult issues are looming and a leader wants to squeeze in a poll before they hit. Announcing early elections late last month, President Nazarbayev mentioned a "growing economic crisis" and "heightening geopolitical antagonisms" - hinting at the crisis in Ukraine - as some of the reasons for his decision. The vote will take place on 26 April.

In order to make early elections or referendums look legitimate, in Kazakhstan the initiative is often presented as having come from a group of citizens. The idea to hold early elections in 2015 was proposed by the Assembly of the Peoples of Kazakhstan. In 2011, millions of signatures were gathered in support of the bid to extend President Nazarbayev's term until 2020 through a referendum. And then as a "compromise" President Nazarbayev suggested early elections.

3. No real opposition

One of the main criticisms of the elections in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from observers at the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, a regional democracy watchdog, is the lack of competition. Plurality of candidates does not necessarily mean a genuine choice for voters, they claim. Opposing candidates tend to be pro-incumbent and in some cases they even admit that they voted for the incumbent.

This is arguably understandable given the pressures the candidates can face. The opposition leader who challenged President Karimov in Uzbekistan's 1991 elections, Muhammad Solih from the Erk party, had to flee the country as a result of the persecution he was facing.

In Kazakhstan, prominent opposition candidates usually fail to get as far as contesting the presidency. In 1999 main opposition candidate Akezhan Kazhageldin was convicted of participating in an unsanctioned rally, which automatically barred him from running for president. In 2011 the main opposition parties boycotted the vote, criticising the decision to hold early elections (see point 2).

4. Constitutional change

This spring, President Karimov is effectively running for his fourth term and if or when President Nazarbayev decides to run, it will be his fifth campaign. Even if the constitution stipulates a single person may serve only two terms, presidents of Central Asian states can easily bypass this by amending it, or adopting a new constitution. And previous terms served before the changes are not counted towards the new limit.

This is how Mr Nazarbayev and Mr Karimov were allowed to run for their third terms. But then Kazakhstan decided to ditch such meticulous legislative fiddling altogether and adopted a law that allows Mr Nazarbayev to serve an unlimited number of terms.

5. Electoral fraud

It is common for the incumbent to receive more than 90% of votes and the turnout is always very high. Experts claim that such high figures are achieved through fraud. OSCE observers report ballot staffing, multiple voting and other irregularities during elections. Their reports also regularly mention intimidation and pressure exerted on people to vote in favour of the leader.

Ironically, both Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev would probably win elections without resorting to fraud, because in such a controlled political environment voters see no alternatives. But the fraudulently inflated numbers are viewed as crucial to boost the leaders' legitimacy. Low figures could show them as weak, which could send wrong signals to both allies and opponents.

[Haykakan]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

Five ways to stay in power in Central Asia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31705746

Nursultan Nazarbayev (L) and Islam Karimov (R) have between them been in power for some 50 years

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are both expected to re-elect their leaders this spring.
Few will be surprised if Nursultan Nazarbayev keeps his job in Kazakhstan - though he's yet to announce he is running again - or if Islam Karimov stays president in Uzbekistan.

Both have been in charge since Soviet times and are two of the longest serving leaders in the world. Here are five tried and tested tactics they have used to keep themselves in power.

1. Hold a referendum
People walk in front of a giant poster of Uzbek President Islam Karimov in Tashkent, 24 December 2007. The electorate are not presented with much of a choice

Often, instead of an election, a referendum is organised to extend the president's term. This was particularly popular in the 1990s when post-Soviet Central Asia was going through a painful transition and growing poverty, high unemployment and a declining economy meant holding an open election could have allowed an opposition to capitalise on public grievances.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan held referenda in 1995, which extended both presidents' terms until 2000. Another referendum in 2002 allowed Islam Karimov to rule Uzbekistan for an extra two years until 2007.

Since the idea of a referendum draws considerable criticism from the international community, the incumbent now tries to avoid it.

2. Elastic elections

If elections do take place in Central Asia, they are not necessarily on schedule.

This is the second time Uzbekistan has held a presidential election long after its leader's term has expired. This time, it was delayed to avoid a clash with parliamentary elections in December 2014 and will now take place on 29 March.

Calling elections early, as has been done three times in Kazakhstan, allows the leader to catch his opponents off guard - the main opposition boycotted the early elections in 2011, saying they had had little time to prepare.

Bringing the schedule forward can also be useful if difficult issues are looming and a leader wants to squeeze in a poll before they hit. Announcing early elections late last month, President Nazarbayev mentioned a "growing economic crisis" and "heightening geopolitical antagonisms" - hinting at the crisis in Ukraine - as some of the reasons for his decision. The vote will take place on 26 April.

In order to make early elections or referendums look legitimate, in Kazakhstan the initiative is often presented as having come from a group of citizens. The idea to hold early elections in 2015 was proposed by the Assembly of the Peoples of Kazakhstan. In 2011, millions of signatures were gathered in support of the bid to extend President Nazarbayev's term until 2020 through a referendum. And then as a "compromise" President Nazarbayev suggested early elections.

3. No real opposition

One of the main criticisms of the elections in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from observers at the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, a regional democracy watchdog, is the lack of competition. Plurality of candidates does not necessarily mean a genuine choice for voters, they claim. Opposing candidates tend to be pro-incumbent and in some cases they even admit that they voted for the incumbent.

This is arguably understandable given the pressures the candidates can face. The opposition leader who challenged President Karimov in Uzbekistan's 1991 elections, Muhammad Solih from the Erk party, had to flee the country as a result of the persecution he was facing.

In Kazakhstan, prominent opposition candidates usually fail to get as far as contesting the presidency. In 1999 main opposition candidate Akezhan Kazhageldin was convicted of participating in an unsanctioned rally, which automatically barred him from running for president. In 2011 the main opposition parties boycotted the vote, criticising the decision to hold early elections (see point 2).

4. Constitutional change

This spring, President Karimov is effectively running for his fourth term and if or when President Nazarbayev decides to run, it will be his fifth campaign. Even if the constitution stipulates a single person may serve only two terms, presidents of Central Asian states can easily bypass this by amending it, or adopting a new constitution. And previous terms served before the changes are not counted towards the new limit.

This is how Mr Nazarbayev and Mr Karimov were allowed to run for their third terms. But then Kazakhstan decided to ditch such meticulous legislative fiddling altogether and adopted a law that allows Mr Nazarbayev to serve an unlimited number of terms.

5. Electoral fraud

It is common for the incumbent to receive more than 90% of votes and the turnout is always very high. Experts claim that such high figures are achieved through fraud. OSCE observers report ballot staffing, multiple voting and other irregularities during elections. Their reports also regularly mention intimidation and pressure exerted on people to vote in favour of the leader.

Ironically, both Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev would probably win elections without resorting to fraud, because in such a controlled political environment voters see no alternatives. But the fraudulently inflated numbers are viewed as crucial to boost the leaders' legitimacy. Low figures could show them as weak, which could send wrong signals to both allies and opponents.

I an guessing that the implication is that a western style democracy would somehow be better. I like these jokes..tell me more.

[londontsi]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

I an guessing that the implication is that a western style democracy would somehow be better. I like these jokes..tell me more.

I am glad you agree with me that this article presents the best roadmap for Armenia’s future.

.

[Serjik]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

Weren't you the English-wannabe that was making excuses for western aggression against Armenians LOL Listen bro governments are like tailor made suits, one does not fit all. Some are better under socialism some are better under dictatorships some are better as theocracies some are better under democracys. Armenia is a young country and Armenians have to figure out what suit fits them best, but with Armenian bellies the way they are its gonna be difficult finding a good looking suit LOL

I am glad you agree with me that this article presents the best roadmap for Armenia’s future.

.

[Serjik]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

I heard Mher went to the Rise of Russia blog to start a fight with the guys there and got his butt handed to him LOL

so what you are saying is that it has indeed been a decent system, but we should trust you that it is going to get bad?
I didn't say those are the only two options. I mentioned communism because from your previous comments you seem to have an affection for it.

[londontsi]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

Weren't you the English-wannabe that was making excuses for western aggression against Armenians ...

I am not an Englishman

... Armenia is a young country and Armenians have to figure out what suit fits them best, .......

You are chasing your own tail ....

Who is this "Armenians" who will decide what suits them best... The people maybe ... isn't that democracy ?

First learn to distinguish your arse from your elbow and then we can have a chat .....

[Mher]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

I heard Mher went to the Rise of Russia blog to start a fight with the guys there and got his butt handed to him LOL

lol I don't think that's possible b/c haven't checked out that fantasy fiction fan page in a few months/years
I'm not sure how that would happen though. Is there a forum there or something
or is it just the crazy author talking to himself and he quoted me and responded to it?

[Serjik]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

I know your are not a brit thats why I called you a wannabe. For me your not even Armenian LOL

I am not an Englishman

Governments are put together by intellectuals, militarymen, politicians and businessman, not the people. What gives morons the idea that "the people" know what they want? Did Libyans, Ukrainians and Syrians know what they want? Yeah the destruction of their country. LOL Armenia needs political evolution not a political revolution. Evolution takes time. Got that?

Who is this "Armenians" who will decide what suits them best... The people maybe ... isn't that democracy ?

The only "arse" I see here is one that think his "londontsi" LOL

First learn to distinguish your arse from your elbow and then we can have a chat .....

[Serjik]

Re: Politics in Hayastan

Your not very convincing LOL

lol I don't think that's possible b/c haven't checked out that fantasy fiction fan page in a few months/years
I'm not sure how that would happen though. Is there a forum there or something
or is it just the crazy author talking to himself and he quoted me and responded to it?