Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations
This very complex topic requires serious debate and analysis. Sadly, overwhelming majority of concerned Armenians have not seriously thought out this matter. Usually the approach is primal/instinctive - sure, open the borders and let Armenia prosper... yeah, open the borders and allow money to pour into Armenia...
Says who?!?!?! When has it been that simple? What are these people basing their convictions on? Has anyone looked at the sociopolitical situation in Georgia? Has anyone looked at the sociopolitical situation in Azerbaijan? Has anyone looked at the sociopolitical situation in eastern Turkey? Based on the logic that open borders will benefit Armenia: Why the heck hasn't eastern Turkey benefited all these years? Why hasn't Georgia benefited? Why hasn't Nakhijevan/Azerbaijan benefited? What are our idiots thinking? Even if billions of USD were simply waiting to pour into Armenia from the Turkish border - does anyone in their right mind think that Ankara will allow it?
Concerning those who ask - "if Armenia faces the risk then why doesn't Turkey simply open the border and undermine the Armenian economy?"
In my opinion, besides the several fundamental reasons that I outlined in my previous post above, one of the most serious risks for Turkey is the risk of Ankara loosing control of the socioeconomic/political situation over the Kurdish populated areas of eastern Turkey. And the other main reason, Ankara is still hoping for the total collapse of the Armenian Republic. They are simply waiting it out. And this is not a far-fetched hope, for if Washington's plans for the region comes to fruition, that is if the Islamic regime in Iran is forcefully overthrown and Russia pushed out of the Caucasus completely, then Armenia will be at the total mercy of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
And I don't have to explain the rest...
Nevertheless, seriously analysis of the geopolitical situation of the region will help one realize that opening borders with Turkey will not have significant longterm benefits for the Armenian Republic. On the contrary, opening of borders and normalization of relations will place the Armenian Republic under longterm geostrategic risks. At the same time, let's pray Russia continues its comeback and Iran maintains its sovereignty.
Originally posted by Lucin
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Says who?!?!?! When has it been that simple? What are these people basing their convictions on? Has anyone looked at the sociopolitical situation in Georgia? Has anyone looked at the sociopolitical situation in Azerbaijan? Has anyone looked at the sociopolitical situation in eastern Turkey? Based on the logic that open borders will benefit Armenia: Why the heck hasn't eastern Turkey benefited all these years? Why hasn't Georgia benefited? Why hasn't Nakhijevan/Azerbaijan benefited? What are our idiots thinking? Even if billions of USD were simply waiting to pour into Armenia from the Turkish border - does anyone in their right mind think that Ankara will allow it?
Concerning those who ask - "if Armenia faces the risk then why doesn't Turkey simply open the border and undermine the Armenian economy?"
In my opinion, besides the several fundamental reasons that I outlined in my previous post above, one of the most serious risks for Turkey is the risk of Ankara loosing control of the socioeconomic/political situation over the Kurdish populated areas of eastern Turkey. And the other main reason, Ankara is still hoping for the total collapse of the Armenian Republic. They are simply waiting it out. And this is not a far-fetched hope, for if Washington's plans for the region comes to fruition, that is if the Islamic regime in Iran is forcefully overthrown and Russia pushed out of the Caucasus completely, then Armenia will be at the total mercy of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
And I don't have to explain the rest...
Nevertheless, seriously analysis of the geopolitical situation of the region will help one realize that opening borders with Turkey will not have significant longterm benefits for the Armenian Republic. On the contrary, opening of borders and normalization of relations will place the Armenian Republic under longterm geostrategic risks. At the same time, let's pray Russia continues its comeback and Iran maintains its sovereignty.
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