Originally posted by Armanen
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Fact:
Neither Russia nor Turkey wants to damage the increasingly beneficial economic and strategic relationship over Nagorno-Karabakh, let alone an attack on Armenia. Peaceful transformation of the status quo is in the best interests of both. In fact Turkey’s influence on Baku on not attacking NKR is a major factor in preventing hostilities regardless of their military aid and support.
Also I think
An invasion and occupation of Armenia will threaten the Russian influence in the region which Russia will not be taking sitting down, with or without Armenia.
Iran is not the same weak country as it was at the signing of Turmanchay and they will have a say.
Such bullying actions against a small Nation without provocation will not be taken well in Europe, US, and Middle East and will be against Davutoglu’s foreign strategy. A new NK war is no justification for Turkish military involvement against Armenia proper. The new treaty between Turkey and Azerbaijan is not being ratified in Ankara.
Not much to profit from such pan Turkic (Neo Ottomanism. Pax-Ottoman) move when the rest of the Turkic states (Expect Azerbaijan) don’t really approve of the Turkish model (other than economics maybe) while again Russia and Iran would not want to loose regional power.
The West wants to establish energy corridors with very big investments which would require stability.
As far as the blockade and border closing neither the Turks or the Armenian businessmen want them closed. If it weren’t for massive lobbying from Baku during the protocols the borders would probably be open now (with other 2 preconditions in discussion). As I understand there are flights from Yerevan to Istanbul.
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