Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Overall great article Crusader. Only thing I didn't like is that the author claimed Armenia occupied 20% of azeri territory, not including Artsakh. That is complete bs, as it's not 20%, closer to 13%, and that land was as much Armenian as Artsakh, just because it was not part of soviet Karabakh doesn't mean jack.

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

ASPECTS OF THE CAUCASUS CONFLICT - YOU MAY NOT BE AWARE OF...
by Armen Kouyoumdjian

Newropeans Magazine
Friday, 15 August 2008
France

One has to pity the unfortunate timing of the US state of Georgia,
for having chosen the very week of the Caucasus conflict to organise
a seminar in Santiago about the attractions of the peanut state
(considering the natives' weak hold on geography).

Based on my interest and activities in the region, I tried to interest
the Chilean media in a more informed coverage of the South Ossetia
conflict, but as usual with no response. "No necesitamos asesorÃ*as
extranjeras", as Mexico's former president Lopez Portillo once
declared. Here are some additional thoughts and facts, for anyone
who is interested.

PROVOKING THE BEAR

For centuries, Russia has had a defensive fortress attitude, and is
extremely touchy of any actual or potential hostility on its borders
and "near abroad". The end of the USSR suddenly created a number of
such risks, and a power struggle between actors as to which camp they
would jump in. Having had to swallow the loss of influence upon such
reluctant former allies as Hungary or Poland, things became more
serious when the struggle moved onto more threatening ground. The
Baltic villages with nationhood ambitions may be irrelevant as
risks, but the Islamic republics of Central Asia are not, though its
current Muslim battles are in Chechnya. It managed to keep a hold
on Belarus, but the Ukraine has been the subject of a deep political
struggle. In the Caucasus, Armenia is the only almost unconditional
fan (notwithstanding foreign financed groups who try to push towards
an alignment with the West). Azerbaijan appears to be firmly in
the hands of a family dictatorship financed by energy resources,
and backed by neighbouring Turkey and the countries from where the
oil multinationals came. Georgia has been the plum prize over which
the struggle has been the hottest.

One can discuss for hours as to who bears the blame for conflict,
though remember that policing Southern Ossetia was handed over
to Russia by the UN. The latest episode is obviously the result
of a misplaced Georgian bravado, only comparable to the Argentine
invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas, by thinking that there would be
no reaction. Russia has now shown, if there was any need to prove it,
that it will continue to be the mover and shaker in the area. The
whole thing had been simmering for some time, and Russia accused
Georgia of helping the Chechen rebels in the past.

GEORGIA

A nation with an old tradition and culture, independent Georgia has
nevertheless failed to project itself internationally and modernise. It
has no vibrant Diaspora like Armenia, and the only famous Georgian
is Stalin, and that says a lot. It has become an uncouth and corrupt
place (even by the non exacting standards of the region). It has at
least two separatist regions (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and a third
potential one about which people outside the area know nothing. Its
Southeast region of Akherkhalaki is mainly populated by Armenians,
and was until recently the location of a huge Russian military base,
which has had to be evacuated. For the anecdote, Charles Aznavour's
family comes from that region. Though there is no formal separatist
movement in what is a godforsaken place, becoming even poorer after the
closure of the Russian base, the Georgian authorities are sufficiently
paranoid about it to encourage ethnic Georgians from other parts of the
country to settle in recent years so as to modify the population mix.

Whereas most people, even youngsters and children, still learn and
speak Russian in Armenia, where Moscow TV stations are accessible
without cable connection and old street signs in Cyrillic on streets
and shops have remained untouched, Georgia has actively pursued a
"derussification" policy.

THE ISRAELI CONNECTION

Did Israel mistakenly empower Georgian aggression? The Israelis
have been very active in the Caucasus region since the end of the
USSR. This takes several forms. In the case of Azerbaijan, they
have been the technical partners of the USA and Britain, countries
backing their oil multinationals operating in the country, providing
on the spot training and intelligence. They have the advantage of
possessing a good supply of Russian speakers who emigrated from the
region during and after the Cold War, and Russian is still the lingua
franca round the place. With Armenia, they have shamefully cooperated
with Turkey in Genocide negation, enlisting the sometimes reluctant
help of Diaspora xxxish organisation. They shall have to atone for
that disgraceful attitude one day.

However, the link with Georgia has been the closest. Within the
effort to "turn around" the country towards the West and NATO,
Israel's military-industrial complex found its niche. The effort
gathered momentum from 2001, and has been helped by the close links
of Georgian defence minister Davit Kezerashvili with Israeli. He is
not only xxxish (as is the minister in charge of "re-integration",
Temur Yakobashvili), but actually emigrated to Israel in his youth,
and had part of his education there, before returning to Georgia and
entering politics. He maintains close links with Israel, and is also
very close to the Georgian president. Both he and Yakobashvili are
fluent in Hebrew.

His presence and help encouraged Israeli firms such as IAI and Elbit
to offer sophisticated equipment, as Georgia went on a shopping spree
to modernise its armed forces to NATO standards. They delivered UAVs,
upgraded armoured vehicles, and supplied AA systems, communication
and other electronic equipment, rockets and ammunition.

The effort was not limited to hardware. Reserve Israeli generals Hirsh
and Ziv provided instruction on intelligence, urban combat, etc..even
setting up an elite deep penetration unit modelled on the Israeli
Sayeret Matkal. Maybe Hirsh was not the most judicious choice as an
adviser, as he had to leave the active list as one of the top officers
responsible for the 2006 Lebanon debacle. As for Yisrael Ziv, he runs
Global CST, a security firm which has been associated with the Ingrid
Betancourt rescue operation, and is widely considered as a Mossad arm.

The military flirting between Georgia and Israel was not
problem-free. As the planned sales got more sophisticated, the
Russians pressured the Israelis and told them in no uncertain terms
that they were not amused, and that it would have consequences in
other areas of relations between the two countries. The Foreign
ministry pressured its Defence colleagues, who had to clamp down
on frustrated suppliers. It is also significant that all sales were
suspended when the latest conflict started.

The human material they trained was also less than top. The corrupt
and unmotivated Georgian military establishment was certainly not the
top of the class (news footage of the recent conflict actually shows
them looking like a ragtag guerrilla band rather than a disciplined
army, not to mention pictures of abandoned military vehicles whose
crews seemed to have fled without even bothering to fight). Still,
if it is true that they managed to bring down 19 Russian planes,
they must have learned something.

Well apart from the military links, there is also reported to have
been quite a bit of business investment from Israel into Georgia.

ENERGY ASPECTS

In my July 30 paper on oil I wrote, referring to the triumvirate of
Iran, Russia and Venezuela, "They cannot afford either an interruption
in supplies or a collapse in the oil price. They will do everything,
and I mean anything, in order to avoid such a possibility". Though
Russia did not start the current conflict, it might well have escalated
it more than it needed to as a way of reversing the slide in the price
of crude, which is off some 20 % from its record highs (Mrs. Bachelet
seems to ignore that because on August 13, she said "the price of
oil keeps going up"). So far, the price has failed to recover, but
Russia may have achieved a more important longer-term objective: to
discourage future projects through the Caucasus, competing with its
own lucrative business which includes supplying the greater part of
all the gas consumed in Europe. Already, BP has shut off two of its
pipelines going through Georgia as a "safety measure". Some time ago,
Armenia, which has no energy of its own beyond an elderly nuclear
station, and whose conflict with Azerbaijan has meant that all the
pipelines from the Caspian to the West by-pass it, once discreetly
reminded the world that several of the lines passed within reach of
its long-range artillery, even if they were outside its territory.

The Caucasus has a very old oil tradition. The world's first oil
well was drilled in what is today Azerbaijan as far ago as 1847,
and by the turn of the century, the Nobels, the Rothschilds and
my compatriot Calouste Gulbenkian were all active in the Baku oil
fields. Gulbenkian subsequently moved West, and between he and his son
Nubar, were instrumental in setting up not only the Iraq Petroleum
Company, but also to finally persuade Shell to drill in Venezuela,
despite its reluctant chairman who insisted that "my dear Gulbenkian,
you know there is no oil in Venezuela". I wonder if comandante Chávez
knows this story. Armenians, all ways creative.

Currently, only Azerbaijan has hydrocarbons among the three Caucasus
republics, but the region had been planned to transport, in particular
gas, from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to European markets by-passing
the Russian network.

THE NEIGHBOURS

I mentioned earlier that Azerbaijan appeared to be in firm hands. In
fact, it is full of instabilities. The dictatorial Aliyev Jr. does not
have the mettle of his father, though he is as corrupt, and despite
the oil and gas wealth, the people are poorer than in Armenia. The
mainly Shi'a-Muslim population is divided between a westernised
capital dominated by Turkish investors and the oil industry expats,
and a countryside where Iranian-financed Islamic Madrasas simmer
against the sinners in the capital. A potential time bomb not made any
easier by the appearance in recent years of the Salafi ultra-orthodox
current of Islam.

Neighbouring Iran also has a large and restive Azeri minority, which
Tehran does not want to get any more bright ideas. Despite the common
brand of Islam, the Turko-Iranian competition in influence has meant
that relations with Iran are somewhat subdued.

Last but not least is the Karabagh conflict, where Azerbaijan not only
lost control of the Armenian populated territory given to Azerbaijan
by Stalin in an attempt to ingratiate himself to Kemal Ataturk, whom
he expected to head a friendly Communist regime in Turkey (!). In
the same war, Azerbaijan also lost 20 % of its territory proper,
which is still occupied by Armenian troops, and has created a major
refugee problem. Since a mid-90's ceasefire, and despite numerous
negotiations, the situation is a stalemate.

For Armenia, the South Ossetia conflict is a good news/bad news
situation. The presence of thousands of Russian troops and two bases
on its territory, with additional materiel transferred from the
closed base in Georgia and thus ready to equip more, is an additional
guarantee against any Azeri adventure, now that the Russians have
shown that they are ready to act.

On the negative side, the conflict has shown the vulnerability of
Armenia to events in Georgia. Though disruptions were kept miraculously
to a minimum so far, much of the gas supplies and trade in and out
of landlocked Armenia, transit through Georgia. With the Turkish
border closed, the only other alternative route is through Iran. It is
longer and more expensive. Iran is also an alternative source of gas,
with the onset of a pipeline from the south, though it is not clear
whether this has yet been connected to the central Armenian network.

The psychological damage is also important. Foreign investors and
tourists, already affected by corruption and poor governance in the
first instance, and expensive air fares and a strong Armenian currency
which has doubled against the dollar in recent years, may become more
reluctant. One good move would be to achieve a motus vivendi with
Turkey to re-open the border, and some progress had been reported in
that direction prior to the Ossetian conflict.

THE GREAT POWERS

We Armenians know very well that in geopolitics, distance does not
make the heart grow fonder, and when push comes to shove, you are
on your own. The Georgians have now found it out at their expense,
belatedly. Did they really think, or had someone had told them, as
in the attempted Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba, that they should take
the lead in attacking and others would follow? In the event, even
the unscrupulous Israelis let them down, and it took several days for
the Americans to say tut tut to Russia, not very convincingly. They
apparently offered transport to bring back the Georgian battalion
from Iraq, and are to send humanitarian aid. Britain's Royal Navy
cancelled a joint exercise with Russia. Big deal. The French sent
in two planeloads of humanitarian aid, and their busybody president
who happened to chair the EU and fancied himself as having brokered
an agreement which the Russians planned to play to in any case,
for the moment and as they wish. Sarkozy may yet turn out to have
played Daladier in the show. At the time of writing, the ceasefire
was already under stress.

Anyway, what could the foreign powers do? Attack Russia? The bottom
line might be to convince those Eastern Europeans still pondering
which side of the fence to jump, that in foreign politics, there are no
friends, just interests. As British energy and security specialist John
Roberts writes: "Frozen conflicts are simply ice-covered volcanoes".

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

He is not Armenian, maybe not turk either, but do not assume he is Armenian.

He's a Turk (and I'm not saying that to be provocative...he's has a long history here to safely assume that.)

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Please don't call me Turk again.

Turk

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

He is not Armenian, maybe not turk either, but do not assume he is Armenian.

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

The Russian side has actually admitted that ethnic-cleansing is taking place right now, and it's against the Georgians. And I'm sure some of you have seen the images out there documenting a whole range of violations of laws of war taking place right now, from forced labour to mutilation of dead bodies to wearing enemy uniforms. Hell, you name it I'm sure if the Russians haven't ticked it off the checklist their S.O irregulars damn well have.

And here is one of the guys in charge of it all:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Shamanov

"Commander of the Russian forces" in South Ossetia. Nice. Very nice.

And then you have the Chechen Vostok battalion running around doing God knows what...

Hey, but you aren't Georgian and located in the affected areas are you? No.

Better keep sucking Russian xxxx then.

It's no Chechnya, but the damage is done.

Exaggeration. The worst stuff that is happening right now is looting, sometimes at gunpoint, of largely abandoned town like Gori. The Georgian side has so far admitted to about 350 deaths and 200 of them are soldiers. Very successful ethnic cleansing, i'm sure Moscow could've done a much better job at it. Georgia on the other hand has indiscriminately thrown all its firepower at the South Ossetian capital and i'm sure you have seen the images of the devastation in that city. But hey, none of us are there right?

Outside the conflict zone and South Ossetia, much of civilian Georgia remains intact... surgical strikes on the military and key economic points are part of war. The wearing of enemy uniforms is new to me, unless you are referring to all the military stuff Georgia left behind for Moscow's taking, then sure, Moscow is liking all the NATO stuff Mutilation of dead bodies, now where have I heard such propoganda from before...

Seriously now, even if all the points you are alleging are really happening, why should you care for people who barely care for us? The Georgians don't seem to care about our oppressed Javakhk population... The world's a xxxxty place, no one seems to care about the 1 million+ Iraqi population murdered in 5 years (as opposed to a few thousand killed under Saddam in 30+ years). When Moscow bombs here and there the world all of a sudden wakes up and shows their bias on human life based on who is killing and who is being killed.

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

And yes Armenia is affected. What's going to happen if that bridge is not repaired soon?

No country does not have a back up plan. Don't you think Armenia might've figured out that this might've happened one day or started stockpiling just as the war started.

Anyway, this aside I heard that the bridge will be fixed in approx. 10 days. Specialists from Yerevan and Baku are there to assist in the repairing.

[D3ADSY]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Please don't call me Turk again.

[D3ADSY]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Hey, this isn't a question of how I feel about Russia. Facts are facts. Not "facts" like Russian claims of 2000 S.O dead, or little kids being crushed by Georgian tanks, like Putin claimed on TV, but facts. And not "facts" like some of the things claimed by Saakaxxxx, either, if you think that's where my support lies.

If you can't see the problem with people like Shamanov in charge and Vostok roaming around, you have a problem.

And yes Armenia is affected. What's going to happen if that bridge is not repaired soon?

[Armanen]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

It's funny how turds like to talk sh*t about Armeno-Russo relations but turkey exists solely because it serves the interests of the anglo-american-zionist axis.