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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
That's a very impressive writeup bro. You should be the resident military commentator here since the mysterious zoravar is rarely around.
That's a very impressive writeup bro. You should be the resident military commentator here since the mysterious zoravar is rarely around.
Originally posted by Federate
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Some no, but mostly yes. It's an important point so I think it deserves a closer look. Using this as a source for what weapons Azerbaijan has, let us look at what Azerbaijan has bought from who and see if it could not have bought at least the equivalent from elsewhere. Let's assume that the US and Europe would never sell advanced weapons to Azerbaijan even though this may not necessarily be true.
Small arms
In the anti-tank missile section, the most advanced Russian weapon is the Kornet ATM. Kornet is indeed pretty advanced, Hezbollah and Syria/Iraq use it all the time. I don't think we have ever seen it on camera but we should have Kornets as well. But you can see that Israel also provides an advanced ATM to Azerbaijan called the Spike-LR. The Israeli B-300 is not really advanced but the US uses it and calls it SMAW.
Vehicles
In the tanks section, the most advanced tank is the T-90S provided by Russia in that multi-billion dollar deal. The T-90S is a good tank but as you astutely once noted, it is still more or less a modernized T-72 of which we can more or less get the same for cheaper by upgrading our own tanks. It may also perform poorly after what we saw in Georgia, especially in Artsakh's mountains as a part of an invading force. Interesting point here is what's written under the T-72: Upgraded by Israeli Elbyt Systems on T-72 "Aslan" (SIM-2) modernise packet.. Here we can see that if Azerbaijan ever wanted to upgrade its T-72s, it doesn't need Russia and an alternative can and has been found in Israel once more. But coming back to the T-90S, there is a clear alternative to which Azerbaijan might have opted for that would have been unfamiliar to us and that's the Israeli Merkava tank. Israel hasn't completed an export deal on those tanks but has offered them to Turkey (canceled due to tensions) and Colombia. It is better for us to face tanks we are familiar with like Russian ones than those we are not. It would help when we capture them too like the first war
General note: Turkey is developing/developed its own tank and Azerbaijan has expressed interest.
In IFV section, the BMP-3 is the most advanced IFV and was also part of the Russian multi-billion dollar deal. BMP-3 is also a good IFV but once again, Azerbaijan has very real alternatives in, where else, Israel once again. Israel has a more modern IFV called Namer that it is apparently already discussing selling to Azerbaijan. Before moving on from IFVs, if you check under BMP-2 you will see that Israeli company Elbit has modernized their BMP-2s as well. Russia recently is alleged to have upgraded some of Armenia's BMP-2s to BMP-2 "Berezhok".
In APC section, the BTR-80 variants are the most advanced vehicles Azerbaijan has of which we also recently received from Russia. APCs have all kinds of alternatives worldwide anyway.
I won't go through Armored Cars because it's hard to consider them advanced but you can see just how many different countries have provided Azerbaijan with all its needs here.
Artillery
We can see here that Azerbaijan has Tochkas provided by Ukraine. Ukraine is acting as an alternative here because Tochkas are Russian weapons that Azerbaijan could have bought from Russia. Let them buy from sh!tty Ukraine
We have Tochkas from Russia anyway though we still don't know about why we never see their missiles on camera...
Under MRLS. The TOS-1 doesn't have alternatives as far as I know. It might cause major damage to us but here's the secret about the TOS-1: it's a very short range weapon (single digit kilometers). Something tells me that when the Russian Army only uses 15 of them and Azerbaijan uses 18 of them, it might not be the best weapon out there.
Here is where it gets interesting, the Smerch. This is probably their best purchase from Russia and will almost certainly cause us headaches. Does Armenia have Smerchs? The long standing assertion is that we do though I don't think we have seen them on camera. What we know for sure is that the Russian base in Gyumri does have Smerchs so at least we know that these weapons do have a history of flying to Armenia. But assuming we don't have Smerch, we recently found out that we have something better as an alternative and that's the Chinese AR1A which is in the most basic terms a longer range Smerch. And trust that if Armenia was able to get AR1As as alternatives, cash cow Azerbaijan could have gotten them instead as well. Before moving on from MRLS, we can see also that Azerbaijan has acquired solid artillery from Israel as well.
Under self-propelled artillery, there is the Russian Msta acquired in the multi-billion dollar deal. Msta is good but Belarus, Israel and Turkey have already provided Azerbaijan with alternatives.
Air Force and Air Defense
I recommend reading the full short article on Azerbaijan's Air Force which I'll use as a source for what aircraft and defenses they have. You can see in the text that NATO has been helping modernize Azerbaijan's airfields and Belarus (fellow EEU member) + Ukraine (consistently anti-Armenian) have been modernizing Azerbaijan's MiG-29s as (bad) alternatives to Russia. Azerbaijan has bought Su-25s from Georgia instead of Russia, we have done the same except we bought Su-25s from Slovakia.
As part of that multi-billion dollar deal with Russia, Azerbaijan got Mi-35s. This is one case where Azerbaijan probably doesn't have alternatives even though the article falsely states that Azerbaijan has Turkish attack helicopters, falsely because the source it cites doesn't exist. The Mi-35 is a great helicopter but it's still just a helicopter. To calm us down, sandal wearing ISIS members recently shot down two recently purchased Mi-35s in Iraq. If they can do it with old ass Soviet technology, we can do it too. As for UAVs, well... it speaks for itself does it? Israel is undisputed king of UAVs in Azerbaijan which Russia can't even compete with.
Finally, anti-air defense. No question here, S-300 doesn't really have an alternative Azerbaijan can purchase even if Israel has sold it a big load of anti-air systems as well. Good thing is that Russia has given us S-300 as well. But even without S-300, Armenia's Air Force has always been weak and would have already faced a big challenge. Azerbaijan's disproportionate spending on AAD is actually as much against Iran as us.
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In general, it is better for us that Russia arm Azerbaijan than another country. We would be more familiar with the systems, it would make it easier for us to use them when we capture them and it is better for Russia to maintain some kind of influence over Azerbaijan with weapons deals than no influence. For the record, a big amount of the advanced weaponry purchases that Azerbaijan does from Russia and especially Israel are aimed at their Navy which that report probably includes in the cited figure. For obvious reasons, we are not that interested in their Navy. But like their AAD, a neighbor of ours to the south probably is.
Small arms
In the anti-tank missile section, the most advanced Russian weapon is the Kornet ATM. Kornet is indeed pretty advanced, Hezbollah and Syria/Iraq use it all the time. I don't think we have ever seen it on camera but we should have Kornets as well. But you can see that Israel also provides an advanced ATM to Azerbaijan called the Spike-LR. The Israeli B-300 is not really advanced but the US uses it and calls it SMAW.
Vehicles
In the tanks section, the most advanced tank is the T-90S provided by Russia in that multi-billion dollar deal. The T-90S is a good tank but as you astutely once noted, it is still more or less a modernized T-72 of which we can more or less get the same for cheaper by upgrading our own tanks. It may also perform poorly after what we saw in Georgia, especially in Artsakh's mountains as a part of an invading force. Interesting point here is what's written under the T-72: Upgraded by Israeli Elbyt Systems on T-72 "Aslan" (SIM-2) modernise packet.. Here we can see that if Azerbaijan ever wanted to upgrade its T-72s, it doesn't need Russia and an alternative can and has been found in Israel once more. But coming back to the T-90S, there is a clear alternative to which Azerbaijan might have opted for that would have been unfamiliar to us and that's the Israeli Merkava tank. Israel hasn't completed an export deal on those tanks but has offered them to Turkey (canceled due to tensions) and Colombia. It is better for us to face tanks we are familiar with like Russian ones than those we are not. It would help when we capture them too like the first war
General note: Turkey is developing/developed its own tank and Azerbaijan has expressed interest.In IFV section, the BMP-3 is the most advanced IFV and was also part of the Russian multi-billion dollar deal. BMP-3 is also a good IFV but once again, Azerbaijan has very real alternatives in, where else, Israel once again. Israel has a more modern IFV called Namer that it is apparently already discussing selling to Azerbaijan. Before moving on from IFVs, if you check under BMP-2 you will see that Israeli company Elbit has modernized their BMP-2s as well. Russia recently is alleged to have upgraded some of Armenia's BMP-2s to BMP-2 "Berezhok".
In APC section, the BTR-80 variants are the most advanced vehicles Azerbaijan has of which we also recently received from Russia. APCs have all kinds of alternatives worldwide anyway.
I won't go through Armored Cars because it's hard to consider them advanced but you can see just how many different countries have provided Azerbaijan with all its needs here.
Artillery
We can see here that Azerbaijan has Tochkas provided by Ukraine. Ukraine is acting as an alternative here because Tochkas are Russian weapons that Azerbaijan could have bought from Russia. Let them buy from sh!tty Ukraine
We have Tochkas from Russia anyway though we still don't know about why we never see their missiles on camera...Under MRLS. The TOS-1 doesn't have alternatives as far as I know. It might cause major damage to us but here's the secret about the TOS-1: it's a very short range weapon (single digit kilometers). Something tells me that when the Russian Army only uses 15 of them and Azerbaijan uses 18 of them, it might not be the best weapon out there.
Here is where it gets interesting, the Smerch. This is probably their best purchase from Russia and will almost certainly cause us headaches. Does Armenia have Smerchs? The long standing assertion is that we do though I don't think we have seen them on camera. What we know for sure is that the Russian base in Gyumri does have Smerchs so at least we know that these weapons do have a history of flying to Armenia. But assuming we don't have Smerch, we recently found out that we have something better as an alternative and that's the Chinese AR1A which is in the most basic terms a longer range Smerch. And trust that if Armenia was able to get AR1As as alternatives, cash cow Azerbaijan could have gotten them instead as well. Before moving on from MRLS, we can see also that Azerbaijan has acquired solid artillery from Israel as well.
Under self-propelled artillery, there is the Russian Msta acquired in the multi-billion dollar deal. Msta is good but Belarus, Israel and Turkey have already provided Azerbaijan with alternatives.
Air Force and Air Defense
I recommend reading the full short article on Azerbaijan's Air Force which I'll use as a source for what aircraft and defenses they have. You can see in the text that NATO has been helping modernize Azerbaijan's airfields and Belarus (fellow EEU member) + Ukraine (consistently anti-Armenian) have been modernizing Azerbaijan's MiG-29s as (bad) alternatives to Russia. Azerbaijan has bought Su-25s from Georgia instead of Russia, we have done the same except we bought Su-25s from Slovakia.
As part of that multi-billion dollar deal with Russia, Azerbaijan got Mi-35s. This is one case where Azerbaijan probably doesn't have alternatives even though the article falsely states that Azerbaijan has Turkish attack helicopters, falsely because the source it cites doesn't exist. The Mi-35 is a great helicopter but it's still just a helicopter. To calm us down, sandal wearing ISIS members recently shot down two recently purchased Mi-35s in Iraq. If they can do it with old ass Soviet technology, we can do it too. As for UAVs, well... it speaks for itself does it? Israel is undisputed king of UAVs in Azerbaijan which Russia can't even compete with.
Finally, anti-air defense. No question here, S-300 doesn't really have an alternative Azerbaijan can purchase even if Israel has sold it a big load of anti-air systems as well. Good thing is that Russia has given us S-300 as well. But even without S-300, Armenia's Air Force has always been weak and would have already faced a big challenge. Azerbaijan's disproportionate spending on AAD is actually as much against Iran as us.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In general, it is better for us that Russia arm Azerbaijan than another country. We would be more familiar with the systems, it would make it easier for us to use them when we capture them and it is better for Russia to maintain some kind of influence over Azerbaijan with weapons deals than no influence. For the record, a big amount of the advanced weaponry purchases that Azerbaijan does from Russia and especially Israel are aimed at their Navy which that report probably includes in the cited figure. For obvious reasons, we are not that interested in their Navy. But like their AAD, a neighbor of ours to the south probably is.
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